Trump's 2024 coalition was built on ending wars, not starting them. His approval has collapsed to 36% as gas prices and mortgage rates surge from the Iranian conflict. On Breaking Points, Saagar Enjeti noted the government assumed America would follow them into this fight without even trying to sell it. Over 52% already oppose the war - a rare early majority rejection.
The conflict isn't just a policy failure; it's the death of Trumpism as a governing project. On The Ezra Klein Show, Christopher Caldwell argued Trumpism promised democratic restoration by bypassing the permanent state. Its load-bearing pillar was non-interventionism. By rejecting the Iraq War consensus, Trump broke from the Republican establishment and appealed to voters left behind by the global economy.
Christopher Caldwell, The Ezra Klein Show:
- Trump promised a country in which you would get the stuff you voted for and not the permanent state.
- Having gone to war now, the limit is sort of off.
With that pillar gone, the project reverts to donor-class governance. The base tolerated billionaire tax cuts and self-enrichment as long as the core promise of avoiding major wars held. Now, Trump is indistinguishable from the establishment he was elected to dismantle.
The economic pain is dictating military timing. Enjeti argued U.S. foreign policy is now a slave to the bond market. Trump delayed energy plant strikes for ten days not for diplomacy, but to settle markets and lower oil prices. Iran denies any negotiations, mocking the claims with AI videos, knowing the U.S. is stuck.
Saagar Enjeti, Breaking Points:
- We conduct all of our foreign policy and wage war based on the schedule of the market and what the bond yield is today.
- You killed the only man who actually was keeping Iran away from a nuclear weapon.
Strategically, the U.S. has achieved none of its objectives. By killing Iranian leaders who opposed nuclear weapons on religious grounds, the administration has likely accelerated Iran's nuclear timeline. Domestically, the betrayal is visceral for young voters who backed Trump's anti-war rhetoric and now face economic ruin and the threat of a draft. The political framework they used to evaluate candidates has shattered.
