Donald Trump is trying to talk his way out of a war he can’t win. Publicly, he’s threatening to wipe Iran’s power plants and oil wells off the map. Privately, his administration is scrambling for a diplomatic off-ramp, led by Vice President JD Vance.
On Breaking Points, Saagar Enjeti framed Trump’s public claims of a “more reasonable regime” in Tehran as fantasy. The goal is to calm crashing markets and spiking oil prices, not describe reality. Iranian missile fire has doubled, inflicting strategic damage on U.S. assets. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed to tankers not paying Iran directly.
Saagar Enjeti, Breaking Points:
- There is no current situation where the Hormuz Strait is just going to be open within the next week.
- We are in no way close to the sort of deal that Donald Trump is saying right now.
Trump’s threats are a stalling tactic. Krystal Ball argued his Truth Social posts are an attempt to “market manipulate” and buy time for a face-saving deal. But Iran’s new leadership, hardened after the assassination of the previous Supreme Leader’s family, shows no sign of softening.
The actual U.S. proposal, reported by David Sanger on The Daily, is a 15-point document demanding Iran scrap nuclear enrichment and limit missile ranges. Iran’s counter-proposal ignored those terms, demanding reparations and total control of the Strait. The gulf between them is vast.
Vance’s appointment as lead negotiator is a signal. He was the administration’s most prominent skeptic of the conflict. His role tells Tehran the U.S. is serious about a deal, while assuring the MAGA base that ending the war is a priority.
David Sanger, The Daily:
- We haven't seen Vice President Vance involved in any of the negotiations to this point.
- He is widely reported to have been the least enthusiastic about getting into a conflict with Iran.
Israel is the wildcard. While Trump and Vance look for a deal, Israel is using the window to strike Iranian nuclear sites. To Jerusalem, chaos or regime collapse is preferable to a negotiated settlement that leaves Iranian capabilities intact.
Iran sees the outreach as a trap. They view past U.S. diplomacy as a prelude to military strikes. While Vance prepares to talk, Iran is targeting high-value U.S. command centers in retaliation. They are negotiating by raising the cost, not by lowering demands.
The strategy is a high-wire act. Trump wants to look strong enough to force Iran to the table, while Vance tries to find a deal that stops the bleeding. Iran seems intent on making sure there’s no table to come to.
