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Oil tops $111 as Iran conflict traps Fed in stagflationary spiral

Friday, April 3, 2026 · from 4 podcasts, 5 episodes
Bitcoin And | Bitcoin & E…Breaking Points with Krys…TFTC: A Bitcoin PodcastBreaking Points with Krys…BTC Sessions
  • Oil prices hit $111 as Trump's Iran offensive closes the Strait of Hormuz, triggering stagflation warnings.
  • The Fed is poised to hike rates into this supply shock, a policy error Deutsche Bank says could cause recession.
  • Trump's 33% approval and $4 gas show political fallout as war funding forces cuts to Medicare.

Markets tanked and oil spiked 10% the moment President Trump promised to bomb Iran "back to the Stone Age." Breaking Points reports futures plunged because investors saw no exit strategy - only a recycled Vietnam-era bombing playbook that failed. With the Strait of Hormuz closed, global spare oil capacity is exhausted. Singapore and Europe already see jet fuel at $200 a barrel.

The economic trap is now set. On BTC Sessions, economist Peter St. Onge warns the Fed’s single biggest risk is panicking over these oil prices and hiking rates. A Deutsche Bank study flags that exact move as the recession trigger. St. Onge argues the Fed mistakes a war-driven supply shock for monetary inflation, crushing a slowing economy with higher rates.

This policy error would unfold against a backdrop of fiscal collapse. Mel Mattison told TFTC podcast host Marty Bent that a prolonged conflict keeping oil between $90 and $150 would bleed costs into fertilizers and transport, cementing 6-7% inflation. The resulting stagflation would crater capital gains tax revenue, blowing the deficit toward $3 trillion.

Foreign appetite for U.S. debt is already at a 30-year low. Mattison predicts the only way out will be massive, coordinated central bank money printing. "This is going to be the golden opportunity for gold and Bitcoin," he said.

Political support is evaporating as the bill comes due. A UGov poll shows Trump’s approval at a historic low of 33%. Breaking Points reports the White House is considering cuts to Medicare Advantage to fund the war’s $200 billion price tag - a direct trade of guns for butter that voters are rejecting.

Saagar Enjeti, Breaking Points:

- That quote was the logic for Rolling Thunder and Linebacker II, which was that all we have to do is bomb the North Vietnamese into submission.

- It was a titanic failure to see it recycled as some sort of chest-beating thing.

The strategic failure is compounding the economic one. Saagar Enjeti argues the U.S. entered this war unilaterally demanding Iran’s unconditional surrender. After a month, it is telegraphing a withdrawal that leaves the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian control. This abdication ends the American maritime empire’s core mission since WWII.

Mel Mattison, TFTC:

- When the dust settles, the only way out is going to be massive coordinated global central bank intervention.

- This is going to be the golden opportunity for gold and Bitcoin.

MarketsWarFed

By the Numbers

  • $296.18 millionSpot Bitcoin ETF outflowmetric
  • 74%Myriad user probability oil to $120metric
  • 38 basis pointsEstimated fee for BlackRock Bitcoin premium income ETFmetric
  • 66%Stablecoins held in emerging marketsmetric
  • $10,000Florida stablecoin transaction reporting thresholdmetric
  • $111.39WTI crude oil price (CNBC)metric

Entities Mentioned

ApolloProduct
BlackRockCompany
BlockstreamCompany
Drift ProtocolProduct
Genius ActConcept
Medicare AdvantageConcept
MicroStrategyCompany
PalantirCompany
ShrimpsProduct
Strait of Hormuzlocation
Truth SocialProduct
UAECompany
Wall StreetConcept
World Economic ForumCompany

Source Intelligence

What each podcast actually said

Bitcoin And | Bitcoin & Economic News
Bitcoin And | Bitcoin & Economic News

Well, Poop | Bitcoin News • Apr 2

  • President Trump pledged to hit Iran extremely hard over the next two to three weeks during a primetime address on the Middle East war.
  • David Bennett notes that every statement from the administration about Iran pushes oil prices down temporarily, but they always bounce back.
  • Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a $296.18 million outflow last week, ending a four-week inflow streak.
  • Jeff May says risk assets fell because Trump's speech gave no indication he planned to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
  • On prediction market Myriad, users put a 74% chance crude oil will hit $120 a barrel.
  • BlackRock filed an amended S1 for its iShares Bitcoin premium income ETF, which will trade under ticker BITA.
  • Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas says the BlackRock fund has no set management fee, with his estimate at 38 basis points.
  • BlackRock's proposed ETF will hold Bitcoin-linked assets like its spot ETF shares and write covered call options to generate income.
  • David Bennett argues BlackRock's move into yield-focused Bitcoin products is a direct response to Michael Saylor's strategy.
  • Interactive Brokers launched crypto trading for retail investors across the European Economic Area via its Irish subsidiary.
  • The Interactive Brokers offering gives access to 11 digital assets within a single account through a partnership with XeroHash.
  • West Texas Intermediate crude oil was at $111.39 per barrel, while TradingView's price oracle showed $102.66, indicating a significant arbitrage gap.
  • The Solana-based Drift protocol was exploited, with losses estimated between $200 million and $270 million.
  • One transfer in the Drift exploit involved 41.7 million JLP tokens worth about $155 million.
  • The Drift exploit attacker began swapping stolen assets into USDC using Jupiter and bridging to Ethereum to buy ETH.
  • Drift Protocol had total value locked above $550 million before the exploit.

Also from this episode:

BTC Markets (2)
  • Bitcoin, gold, and U.S. stocks declined after Trump's address, with Bitcoin's resilience surprising Bennett.
  • Bitcoin's price was $66,810 with a market cap of $1.34 trillion and 20,010,332.41 coins in circulation.
Stablecoins (8)
  • Fed Governor Michael Barr says stablecoin accessibility presents AML risks and regulators need tighter controls.
  • Goldman Sachs data shows 66% of stablecoins are held by individuals in emerging markets.
  • Nicholas Anthony suggests Barr's call for AML controls could involve deploying smart contracts for automatic flags and freezes.
  • Intergovernmental agencies like FATF have called on stablecoin issuers to implement technical measures to block, freeze, and withdraw stablecoins.
  • A recent Florida stablecoin bill includes transaction monitoring and a $10,000 reporting threshold.
  • The U.S. Treasury released an 87-page proposed rulemaking for the Genius Act, opening a 60-day public comment period.
  • Under the Genius Act, stablecoin issuers with less than $10 billion in supply can opt for state regulation if states meet federal standards.
  • The Treasury proposal anchors the federal benchmark to rules issued by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.
Digital Sovereignty (1)
  • David Bennett argues free and open source software is the true escape hatch from financial control, not just Bitcoin or Nostr.
Adoption (2)
  • The Human Rights Foundation announced 1.5 billion satoshis in new grants through its Bitcoin Development Fund.
  • HRF's grants support 26 projects across Bitcoin privacy, payments, development, community, freedom tech, and research.
Protocol (3)
  • Blockstream researcher Jonas Nick presented Shrimps, a post-quantum signature scheme for Bitcoin that supports multi-device signing.
  • Shrimps signatures are around 2.5 kilobytes, compared to SLH-DSA's 7.8 kilobytes, offering a compactness advantage.
  • David Bennett notes Bitcoin developers have been working on quantum resistance for years, countering claims that no one is addressing the threat.
EnergyMarketsRegulation
Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

4/2/26: Oil Prices Spike As Markets Tank, Iran Predicts US Invasion As Key Negotiator Wounded • Apr 2

  • Saagar and Krystal indicate Trump's major speech was poorly received by markets and commentators.
  • Saagar notes indicators suggesting a potential collapse of the AI market bubble.
  • Trump announced combat operations would resume in the Middle East 'over the next two to three weeks'.
  • Trump threatened to hit all Iranian electric generating plants simultaneously if no deal is made, while previously sparing oil targets to allow for Iranian survival.
  • Krystal argues that bombing Iran's energy infrastructure would lead to Iranian retaliation on Gulf states and a severe energy crisis.
  • Following Trump's speech, S&P futures dropped 1.67%, and both WTI and Brent crude oil surged to $109 per barrel.
  • The price equalization between Brent and WTI crude, eliminating a historical $10/barrel spread, reflects global oil shortage concerns.
  • Trump blamed rising US gasoline prices entirely on Iran's 'deranged terror attacks' against commercial oil tankers, using it as proof against Iran possessing nuclear weapons.
  • Saagar contends Trump's speech was primarily to calm markets and manage bond yields, rather than inform the public.
  • Trump compared the 32-day conflict to longer historical wars like World War I (1 year, 7 months, 5 days) and Vietnam (19 years, 5 months, 29 days), claiming Iran is 'eviscerated'.
  • Krystal notes the Pentagon is doubling its fleet of A-10 Warthog attack planes in the Middle East, indicating preparation for a ground invasion requiring close air support.
  • The phrase 'bomb them back to the Stone Ages', used by Trump, was coined by General Curtis LeMay in 1965 regarding North Vietnam, a strategy that failed there.
  • If the US bombs Iran, Krystal predicts Iran will retaliate against Gulf nations, whose poorly defended desalination plants are critical, with Saudi Arabia reportedly low on interceptors.
  • Iran is less reliant on desalination than Gulf countries, potentially having less than two weeks of water if plants are targeted.
  • Trump's proposed $1.5 trillion defense budget and an additional $200 billion supplemental for the conflict contrast with Iran's roughly $10 billion annual military budget.
  • Trita Parsi notes Trump's speech, a summary of social media posts, failed to calm markets due to its lack of a clear plan.
  • Iranians believe Trump's speech was meant to confuse, anticipating a US ground invasion and preparing for an attack during the Easter holiday.
  • Iranian Parliament Speaker Kolibov, who lost a brother in the Iraq-Iran war and volunteered at 18, declared Iranians are ready to fight to the last for their homeland.
  • Kamal Karatzi, Iran's former foreign minister, was seriously wounded and his wife killed in US/Israeli strikes while overseeing talks with Pakistan.
  • Trita Parsi believes Israel, possibly with US intelligence, assassinated Karatzi, consistent with a pattern of eliminating Iranian officials capable of building consensus for a deal.
  • Trita Parsi notes the warfare increasingly exhibits an 'Israeli character', involving deliberate bombing of civilian infrastructure like universities and a 100-year-old medical research institute.
  • Trita Parsi argues the US is complicit in this Israeli form of warfare, with Trump, lacking a plan, following Israel's lead to destroy Iran's infrastructure and eliminate it as a geopolitical player.
  • Saagar states the US was complicit in the 'genocide in Gaza' under both the Biden and Trump administrations.
  • Trita Parsi believes the US is adopting Israel's 'mow the lawn' approach, with Trump embracing repeated bombings of Iran, a strategy past presidents avoided due to its potential for eternal warfare.
  • Trita Parsi indicates a ground invasion would be 'utterly irrational' and 'suicidal' for Trump's presidency, yet Iranians are preparing for it, expecting to inflict significant American casualties.

Also from this episode:

Politics (16)
  • Saagar claims independent media played a massive role in the recent election.
  • The UAE desires to join military action directly, amidst broader 'freakout' among Gulf Arab states over Iranian regional damage.
  • Krystal asserts Trump's speech was an amalgamation of Truth Social posts lacking new substance, reflecting his strategic impasse.
  • Iran reportedly controls the Straits of Hormuz and is charging tolls, demanding payment in 'wand and or cryptocurrency', blocking US allies and Gulf nations.
  • Saagar criticizes the war as undemocratic, noting a lack of Congressional vote, public debate, or transparent information.
  • Saagar says Trump admitted in a leaked video that he initially believed the war would conclude in three days.
  • Trump is unwilling to accept the 'humiliation' of walking away from the conflict, which would leave Iran with a strategic victory by controlling the Strait of Hormuz.
  • In a leaked video from a White House Easter lunch, Trump stated the government's purpose is 'military protection', not social programs like daycare, Medicare, or Medicaid.
  • Trump suggested states should fund social programs by raising taxes, allowing the federal government to focus solely on military spending.
  • Krystal notes the current war's approval rating is 26%, making Trump's comments about foregoing social programs for military spending politically vulnerable.
  • Saagar states the administration plans to cut healthcare programs, such as Medicare Advantage, to fund the war.
  • Saagar claims Trump rejected a 'generous deal' offered by Omani intermediaries, choosing war instead.
  • Trita Parsi states Iran's President issued a letter to America, blaming the conflict on Israel, not the American people.
  • Trita Parsi suggests Trump's statements minimizing the Strait of Hormuz's importance to the US may render the US position irrelevant, allowing Iran to control and charge transit fees.
  • Iran may use transit fees from the Strait of Hormuz to fund reconstruction, similar to Denmark's 400-year history of charging fees for the Øresund Strait.
  • Trita Parsi states predicting outcomes is impossible due to a perceived lack of rationality in the White House.
Business (3)
  • Breaking Points seeks 10,000 more YouTube subscribers to reach its two million goal.
  • Saagar highlights economic pain and backlash against current events is evident in Europe.
  • The national average gas price is $4.80, with predictions of reaching all-time highs soon.
Energy (2)
  • A month's worth of floating oil storage has been depleted, signaling an imminent real oil shortage and escalating gas prices.
  • Jet fuel in Europe and Singapore has reached $200 a barrel, with diesel prices possibly hitting $6 a gallon.
History (1)
  • Krystal draws parallels between the current war's impact on domestic spending and inflation, and the Vietnam War's role in cutting the Apollo space program in the 1970s.
WarMacroEnergyMiddle East

3/31/26: Trump Floats Iran Surrender, Trump Rock Bottom Polls, Gas Prices Spike • Mar 31

  • Donald Trump's Truth Social post suggests he's willing to end the Iran war without reopening the Strait of Hormuz, telling allies to 'go get your own oil.'
  • Saagar argues that if the US leaves the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian control, it would constitute a strategic surrender and a fundamental rewriting of the US security guarantee in the Middle East.
  • Krystal and Saagar believe Trump's potential withdrawal from the Iran war is driven by tanking poll numbers, bond market issues, and pressure from high oil and stock market volatility.
  • Iran's parliament passed a bill to establish a toll system for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, banning US and Israeli vessels and asserting sovereignty.
  • Rory Johnston says the US average gas price has officially exceeded $4 a gallon, a significant milestone resulting from the Iran war disruption.
  • Rory Johnston forecasts that if Iran retains control of the strait, oil prices will remain structurally high, setting the stage for perennial future crises.
  • Johnston states that a proposed $2 million toll per tanker passage through the Strait of Hormuz would add roughly $1 to the cost of a barrel of oil.
  • An airstrike with bunker-busting bombs hit an Iranian ammunition depot in Isfahan near nuclear facilities just yesterday, indicating the war continues.
  • Italy and Spain have both refused to allow US military planes to land at their bases or grant flyover rights, signaling major allied dissent.
  • Krystal notes the White House is considering cutting Medicare Advantage to fund the $200 billion cost of the Iran war, which would be politically damaging.
  • Rory Johnston predicts the coming driving season will be the most expensive since 2022, with potential for all-time high US diesel and pump prices if the crisis continues.
  • Saagar argues the Iran war has exposed critical weaknesses in the US defense industrial base, which is ill-suited for modern asymmetric warfare dominated by drones.

Also from this episode:

Elections (3)
  • A UGov poll shows Trump's approval rating at 33% with 62% disapproval, which Krystal calls some of the worst numbers of his presidency.
  • Nate Silver's poll average shows Trump's approval dipping under 40%, with a consistent downward trajectory since the Iran war began.
  • Krystal points out that every major dip in Trump's poll numbers stems from his own policy choices, not external crises, making the damage more politically potent.
Energy (2)
  • Rory Johnston explains that a US ban on diesel exports would initially lower domestic prices but soon force refinery shutdowns, creating gasoline scarcity.
  • Johnston describes an 'air pocket' in global oil supply, where the loss of tankers from the Gulf is reaching Asia this week, Europe next week, and North America in two weeks.
Diplomacy (1)
  • The hosts argue that a US withdrawal would empower a stronger Iran-China-Russia alliance, with China poised to enrich Tehran through a parallel banking system.
WarMacroDiplomacyTradeMarkets
TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast
TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast

Marty Bent

#732: The Iran War Escalation with Mel Mattison • Apr 1

  • Mattison states the U.S. invasion of Iran lacks a viable military solution, despite American power, similar to how willpower fails against addiction.
  • Mattison says he started buying puts and raising cash after realizing the Iran war was serious, about five to six days after the initial attacks.
  • According to Mattison, the market initially dismissed the Iran conflict, with the S&P trading at 6,800-6,850 days after it began.
  • Mattison argues Iran gains leverage daily and could demand the U.S. leave the Gulf, abandon bases, price oil in yuan, or tax the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Mattison contends Trump's talk of bombing Iranian energy and desalination plants is reckless and ignores Iran's ability to retaliate against Gulf states.
  • Mattison believes the conflict has a tail risk of escalating to a nuclear exchange between Israel and Iran.
  • Mattison suggests Iran may have already weaponized its 60% enriched uranium into a nuclear device since June.
  • Mattison posits a Mossad operation may have manipulated Trump with false intelligence from Netanyahu to launch the war.
  • Mattison states oil is the key driver of inflation, impacting transportation, plastics, fertilizers, and goods movement.
  • Mattison warns a protracted Iran war with oil at $90-$150 could lead to 6-7% inflation and 1970s-style stagflation.
  • Mattison's base case remains a year-end market recovery, but only if hard decisions to de-escalate are made within weeks.
  • Mattison forecasts the ultimate solution to war-induced economic damage will be massive, coordinated global central bank liquidity injection.
  • Mattison is holding cash and puts, waiting for a market capitulation event like a 3-4% down day in the S&P before deploying.
  • Mattison added gold strategically when it touched its 200-day moving average near $4,100, expecting a major rally post-crisis.
  • Mattison warns the Fed cannot Volcker-style hike rates into war-induced inflation without collapsing tax receipts and the sovereign bond market.
  • Mattison predicts the U.S. may need WWII-style tools like explicit yield curve control to manage blowout deficits and lack of foreign treasury buyers.
  • Mattison suggests private credit losses could infect banks and require a Fed bailout facility, leading to straight money printing.
  • Bent speculates the Iran war might be a U.S. proxy move to choke China's oil and gas access, slowing its AI race progress.
  • Mattison believes the AI industry's pressure, as voiced by David Sacks, could force a U.S. exit from the war to avoid disrupting the chip build-out.

Also from this episode:

Politics (2)
  • Mattison cites George Washington's farewell address, arguing an 'excess of fondness' for Israel makes the U.S. 'to some degree a slave.'
  • Mattison claims powerful U.S. officials, including Jared Kushner, may prioritize Israeli over American national interests.
BTC Markets (1)
  • Mattison argues Bitcoin must decouple from its tight software correlation with stocks and act as a store-of-value liquidity asset.
WarMacroFedBTC MarketsMarkets
BTC Sessions
BTC Sessions

“Single Biggest Risk” Why the Fed Will Break the Economy | Peter St Onge • Mar 31

  • A Deutsche Bank study identifies the Federal Reserve panicking on oil prices and subsequently hiking rates as the single biggest risk for a recession.
  • Jerome Powell, a lawyer with a private equity background and not an economist, is perceived as being aligned with Wall Street interests.
  • Peter St. Ange predicts that Bitcoin and silver prices will experience a significant jump when the ongoing war concludes.
  • Gold prices have declined by approximately 7% since the war began, with silver falling even more, while Bitcoin's price has risen during the same period.
  • Speculative investors, often called 'hot money' or 'paper hands,' who initially moved into gold and silver, have since shifted capital into Bitcoin.
  • St. Ange explains that bond prices are currently repricing due to market expectations of zero net Fed rate cuts for the year, with a potential for two rate hikes.
  • U.S. nationwide real estate prices have declined by about 7%, accompanied by an 18% decrease in home sales last month.
  • Approximately half of all U.S. mortgages are currently below 3% interest due to the Fed's zero-rate policy during COVID, locking many homeowners into their properties.
  • The Federal Reserve's balance sheet, historically around $1 trillion, surged to $6-7 trillion after 2008 and further to $9-10 trillion during COVID.
  • St. Ange argues that the Fed's actual wealth transfer through monetary policy is closer to 4-6% annually, equating to roughly $1 trillion per year on a $20 trillion economy.
  • During an 18-month period at the start of COVID, one-third to one-fourth of all existing dollars were newly printed, impacting global currencies.
  • Kevin Warsh is considered a 'hard money' advocate, potentially the most stringent since Paul Volcker, whose appointment would likely cause a 'debasement trade' crash.
  • Peter St. Ange downplays the petrodollar's significance, emphasizing that over $40 trillion in overseas dollar-denominated assets represents the primary source of dollar demand.

Also from this episode:

Politics (1)
  • Peter St. Ange states that freezing Russian central bank assets was likely the most significant blow to the dollar in 50 years.
AI & Tech (6)
  • St. Ange questions the World Economic Forum's consistent promotion of AI job loss narratives, suggesting it serves as an entry point for universal basic income.
  • A 2014 Oxford study predicted 80 million job losses from AI in 20 years, yet 12-13 years later, the U.S. economy has gained 16 million jobs.
  • The World Economic Forum predicted that half of all jobs would be lost by 2025 due to AI, a narrative St. Ange attributes to promoting universal basic income.
  • Historically, every form of automation, from ancient innovations like writing and fire to modern technologies, has ultimately created more jobs than it destroyed.
  • AI is projected to impact about 20% of jobs, primarily in cubicle roles, rather than the often-predicted 90%, with healthcare, education, and skilled trades being less affected.
  • Palantir's CEO noted that those most vulnerable to AI job displacement are disproportionately female, older, high-income, single Democrats.
Business (5)
  • A $10 increase in oil prices is typically correlated with a 0.2% drop in GDP, 200,000 job losses, and a 0.33% rise in inflation.
  • Peter St. Ange states that the Truflation indicator showed an annual inflation rate of 0.7% before the war, which has since risen to 1.6%.
  • Austrian economics defines inflation as an increase in the money supply, distinct from rising prices, which are a consequence of that monetary expansion.
  • The U.S. economy remained weak for eight years following the 2008 crisis, a central point of Donald Trump's 2016 presidential campaign.
  • In contrast, traditional Wall Street banks offer 0.1% interest on deposits, back only 7-10 cents of each dollar (the rest is bailout), and collect over $100 billion in annual fees.
Adoption (2)
  • Wall Street banks strongly oppose stablecoins, which, due to regulations like the 'Genius Act,' must be fully backed by cash or treasuries.
  • Stablecoins function as fully-backed, fee-free bank accounts that can pass on about 94% of the yield from their treasury backing, effectively paying around 4% interest.
Culture (1)
  • Widespread music piracy in the 1990s led artists to significantly increase touring, which resulted in a boom for live music performances and ticket prices.
FedBankingMacroStablecoins

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