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Experts say quantum Bitcoin threat is decades away

Sunday, April 5, 2026 · from 3 podcasts
TFTC: A Bitcoin PodcastPresidio Bitcoin JamBankless
  • Building a cryptographically-relevant quantum computer is an engineering nightmare six to nine orders of magnitude from reality.
  • Panic-driven upgrades risk breaking Lightning, multisig, and Bitcoin's core infrastructure.
  • The narrative distracts from tangible protocol challenges, like retail tipping usability gaps.

The quantum threat to Bitcoin is a future engineering problem, not an imminent cryptographic collapse. According to Brandon Black on TFTC, the hardware required to run Shor’s algorithm meaningfully is six to nine orders of magnitude away - a gap of 50 to 100 years, not five. Scaling quantum computers requires manipulating subatomic particles, a fight against entropy where every new architecture hits a wall after a few qubits.

Hardware reality hasn't matched mathematical hype for four decades, making the threat a lab curiosity. The Google paper that prompted recent warnings delivered a 20x algorithmic speedup. On the Presidio Bitcoin Jam, Steve Lee framed this as an 'N-1' problem, moving a hypothetical 10-year deadline by a few weeks, not collapsing the entire timeline.

Panic creates its own risk. Rushing to adopt post-quantum signatures would break Lightning Network channels, multisig setups, and existing wallet software. Black notes that recent NIST standardization saw two of 69 candidate post-quantum algorithms broken by classical laptops, proving the danger of trading proven math for experimental code.

Consensus is building that the quantum narrative distracts from Bitcoin's pressing protocol challenges. The Presidio Bitcoin Jam highlighted a tangible UX failure: Bitcoin and Lightning invoices can't support the pay-then-tip model dominant in US retail. This structural friction, not a futuristic attack, is what currently blocks merchant adoption.

Bitcoin is already moving toward quantum resistance, but at a measured pace. Developers are researching hash-based signatures and isogeny-based cryptography, which could double on-chain size without massive data bloat. The network will upgrade when the evidence demands it, not when social media panic peaks.

Brandon Black, TFTC:

- Bitcoin can't be subject to change without evidence that it needs to.

- If we can be caused to make a change based on claims and not evidence, then Bitcoin is vulnerable to the most obvious of attacks.

ProtocolAdoptionScience

By the Numbers

  • 69post-quantum candidate algorithms tested by NISTmetric
  • 2algorithms broken during NIST testingmetric
  • 354-byteShrinks signature sizemetric
  • 5xShrinks signature size increase over Schnorrmetric
  • 2500-byteShrimps signature sizemetric
  • 50Number of Spiral developers/grantees surveyed on AI usemetric

Entities Mentioned

0xchatProduct
BasecampProduct
BLOCKSPACESCompany
BuilderBotConcept
Cash AppProduct
DeepSeekCompany
Drift ProtocolProduct
OpenAgentsplatform
OpenAItrending
PolymarketCompany
ShrimpsProduct
SpaceXCompany
SpiralCompany
SquareCompany

Source Intelligence

What each podcast actually said

TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast
TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast

Marty Bent

#733: The Truth About The Quantum Threat with Brandon Black • Apr 4

  • Brandon Black predicts quantum computers are 50 to 100 years or more from breaking a meaningful cryptographic system.
  • Black says scaling up quantum computers involves immense physical difficulty that is dramatically underplayed by proponents.
  • He states quantum research has seen new difficulty emerge every time they try to scale for the last four decades.
  • Black says we need to see a single quantum architecture successfully double its logical qubits multiple times before taking the scaling threat seriously.
  • Pro-quantum advocates derive confidence from impressive theoretical wins by brilliant researchers, not from physical scaling evidence.
  • A recent Google paper presented a mathematical improvement that reduces the logical qubits needed for Shor's algorithm.
  • Black says the Google result still leaves quantum computing six to nine orders of magnitude away from a cryptographically relevant device.
  • He notes hype around tiny physical improvements in quantum papers indicates the field is still far from a breakthrough.
  • Rushing a quantum-resistant upgrade for Bitcoin risks disrupting existing infrastructure like Lightning and multisig.
  • Black argues elliptic curve cryptography will likely fail someday, so Bitcoin should develop a suitable replacement at a measured pace.
  • Black says the Bitcoin developer community is actively researching post-quantum cryptography, contrary to claims of inaction.
  • He states Bitcoin's decentralized nature makes cryptographic changes far riskier and costlier than for centralized systems.
  • Black says Jonas Nick's Shrimps advance makes Shrinks Plus more compatible with Bitcoin's wallet recovery model.
  • He is hesitant to put current post-quantum systems into Bitcoin due to large signature sizes and incompatibility with wallet infrastructure.
  • Hash-based signatures are the current near-term consensus for post-quantum Bitcoin because they rely on trusted assumptions.
  • Lattice-based cryptography offers benefits but relies on newer, less battle-tested mathematical assumptions.
  • During NIST standardization, two of 69 post-quantum candidate algorithms were broken by classical computers.
  • Isogeny-based cryptography is a promising post-quantum avenue as it is elliptic curve based and only doubles on-chain size.
  • Black argues quantum fear distracts from and could stall development of useful Bitcoin innovations like Silent Payments and Musig.
ProtocolAdoption
Presidio Bitcoin Jam
Presidio Bitcoin Jam

Google's Quantum Warning Overblown?, OpenAI Acquires TBPN, Jack Dorsey Makes Block Mini-AGI • Apr 3

  • Google's quantum cryptography paper claims a 20x performance improvement in algorithms to break elliptic curve signatures used by Bitcoin.
  • Steve Lee argues quantum computing progress should be framed as N minus 1, where N is years until cryptographically relevant quantum computers exist.
  • Lee says the quantum threat is harder for Bitcoin due to the need for decentralized consensus, Satoshi's potentially exposed coins, and blockchain cost sensitivity.
  • Blockstream's Shrinks quantum-resistant signature scheme produces 354-byte signatures, about 5x larger than current Schnorr signatures, but requires stateful management.
  • Blockstream's Shrimps scheme creates stateless 2500-byte signatures for recovery scenarios, trading larger size for no required off-chain data.
  • Lee says Bitcoin's anti-fragility means it could survive a price crash from a quantum emergency, similar to Mt. Gox, and recover long-term.
  • Square's rollout of Bitcoin Lightning payments faces hurdles: sellers must manually update software, not all hardware supports it, and tipping flows are incompatible.
  • David Marcus notes Cash App's Bitcoin Lightning payments save merchants credit card fees, with 1 in 10 Cash App users holding Bitcoin versus 60 million total active users.
  • Max Hillebrand says peer-to-peer AI compute networks like Mesh LLM and OpenAgents are gaining traction, but lack payment mechanisms and computation verifiability.

Also from this episode:

AI & Tech (6)
  • Spiral surveyed 50 developers and grantees on AI usage, creating archetype-based reports from non-developers to low-level protocol coders.
  • OpenAI acquired The Big Podcast Network for an estimated $100 million, seen as a strategic move to control its own media channel amid competition.
  • Max Hillebrand argues America needs a 'DeepSeek moment' - a competitive open-source AI model - as Chinese models surge ahead and Llama's progress stalled.
  • Block's 'Hierarchy to Intelligence' vision restructures the company around AI agents handling internal information flow, with people as orchestrators.
  • Block's internal BuilderBot AI, integrated into Slack, allows employees to query company data, generate SQL, and get recommended contacts for verification.
  • A creator used AI tools for GLP-1 lead generation, reportedly generating $418 million in revenue within 18 months with minimal staff.
Business (1)
  • Steve Lee says Block's new org structure has three roles: Individual Contributor, Directly Responsible Individual, and Player-Coach, eliminating traditional middle management.
Big TechVCAdoptionProtocol
Bankless
Bankless

ROLLUP: Google’s Quantum Warning | Trump’s Iran Speech | Ethereum Economic Zones | Drift Hack • Apr 3

  • Google released a 'quantum warning' specifically for the crypto industry, indicating an algorithmic breakthrough that could accelerate the cracking of ECDSA signatures underlying Bitcoin and Ethereum.
  • Google's research indicates a 20x improvement to Shor's algorithm, potentially reducing the physical qubits needed to crack ECDSA from tens of millions to 500,000.
  • With 500,000 physical qubits, a quantum computer could attack Bitcoin or Ethereum and extract keys in approximately nine minutes, enabling 'on-spend attacks' that intercept transactions.
  • Google recommends that all cryptocurrency communities migrate to post-quantum cryptography by 2029, a deadline they have adopted internally.
  • Bitcoin faces a significant challenge as 6.9 million BTC (one-third of total supply) is vulnerable to quantum attack, including 2.3 million BTC (10-15%) from Satoshi and lost keys.
  • Google's paper outlines four options for dormant Bitcoin: do nothing, burn them, implement an 'hourglass approach' to limit spend rates, or use a 'bad side chain' for ownership proofs.
  • Ethereum has a broader quantum attack surface than Bitcoin, encompassing data availability, KZG ceremony vulnerability, and quantum-exposed admin keys controlling $200 billion in stablecoins and RWAs.
  • Despite a larger attack surface, Ethereum's quantum challenge is 'compensated by stronger community leadership' and an existing roadmap, according to Google's assessment.
  • The Ethereum Economic Zone (EEZ) is a proposal by Nosis and Jordi Belina aiming for synchronous composability between Layer 2s and Layer 1, enabling shared liquidity and atomic transactions.
  • Aave v4 is live, transforming Aave into a 'single liquidity hub' with specialized 'spokes,' allowing anyone to launch a spoke with DAO approval, governed by Aave as the main risk manager.
  • Phantom wallet now allows U.S. users to fund with bank transfers or Apple Pay, send/receive wires, and offers a debit card, moving towards a 'money super app' model for self-custodial wallets.

Also from this episode:

Politics (2)
  • David argues that Trump's 19-minute speech on Operation Epic Fury, the Iran War, primarily served to inform markets that the conflict would continue for another 'two to three weeks.'
  • Polymarket suggests a 60% probability of U.S. forces entering Iran by April 30th and a 47% chance of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire by May 31st.
Business (9)
  • After Trump's speech, oil markets (Brent Crude, WTI futures) surged by 10-12%, while NASDAQ and S&P 500 futures initially dropped 0.5%, though the S&P later returned to pre-speech levels.
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that the U.S. national debt is growing 'substantially faster than our economy' and is on an 'unsustainable' path.
  • Polymarket indicates the possibility of a U.S. recession has risen from 20% to 36%, potentially influenced by rising energy costs impacting inflation.
  • Drift Protocol, a Solana perp Dex, suffered a $285 million exploit on April 1st, after an attacker social-engineered two of five multi-sig signers.
  • The Drift attacker minted and wash-traded a fake token for days to create perceived legitimacy, then used admin control to add it as collateral and withdraw other assets.
  • Hayden Adams (Uniswap) criticized Drift's admin setup, arguing that protocols with central keys capable of draining funds should not be called 'DeFi,' as it blurs the definition.
  • The Aave v4 model charges a higher risk premium for less secure collateral and uses credit lines set by the hub to constrain potential damage from individual spokes, mimicking a central banking structure.
  • Benji Taylor, a crypto wallet builder previously at Aave and Base, has joined X, signaling the company's intention to develop a crypto wallet within its 'money super app.'
  • SpaceX is targeting a June IPO with a projected valuation of $1.75 trillion, illustrating a trend where most company growth and upside are captured privately before public listing.
AI & Tech (1)
  • OpenAI recently closed a $122 billion funding round, valuing the company at nearly $900 billion, driven by rapid growth including $2 billion in monthly revenue.
ProtocolBTC MarketsMacroRegulation

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