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POLITICS

Iran charges transit tolls as US alliances fracture over Hormuz

Wednesday, April 8, 2026 · from 6 podcasts, 8 episodes
The DailyForward GuidanceBreaking Points with Krys…BTC SessionsThe Jack Mallers ShowBreaking Points with Krys…Breaking Points with Krys…Bitcoin And | Bitcoin & E…
  • Iran now charges shipping tolls in yuan, bypassing dollar sanctions and controlling global energy flow.
  • Key US allies like Japan and France are cutting direct deals with Tehran for fuel.
  • Rising oil prices are forcing the Federal Reserve to choose inflation over a sovereign debt crisis.

Iran has shifted from blockading the Strait of Hormuz to running a sophisticated tollbooth. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps now allows select vessels - French, Japanese, Omani - to pass while demanding payment in Chinese yuan or stablecoins, effectively ending the petrodollar's monopoly on energy trade. As Jack Mallers notes, this isn't a complete closure but a managed stranglehold, granting Iran de facto sovereignty over 20% of global oil flows and a new source of sanctions relief.

America's security guarantees are evaporating. With 90% of its oil transiting the strait, Japan is in a "full-blown panic," preparing citizens for domestic energy rationing. On *Breaking Points*, Saagar Enjeti reported that France voted against a US-led use-of-force resolution at the UN and promptly received transit clearance for its tankers. This direct negotiation between US allies and Tehran signals the collapse of the 80-year maritime order the US Navy once guaranteed.

The economic shock is structural, not cyclical. Diesel has hit $8 a gallon in San Francisco, and Brent crude trades above $108. Forward Guidance's Jacob Shapiro warns the real crisis is in petrochemicals and fertilizer - sectors with no strategic reserves. Missing the fertilizer application window now guarantees lower crop yields and higher food prices by autumn, a flashpoint for political instability.

Jacob Shapiro, Forward Guidance:

- Unless the US can physically move Iran away from the Strait of Hormuz, carrier groups are essentially parked in a shooting gallery.

- Iran is currently trading $20,000 drones for $2 million interceptors, exhausting US hardware.

This stagflationary trap forces a brutal monetary choice. Luke Gromen and Lyn Alden, on *BTC Sessions*, note US tax receipts already fail to cover interest and entitlements. A recession from energy scarcity would gut revenue further. As Mallers highlighted, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has signaled the central bank will "look past" the oil shock, prioritizing liquidity over inflation control to avoid a sovereign debt crisis. The path leads to the monetization of wartime spending, with the Fed becoming the buyer of last resort for Treasury debt.

The reputational damage to American power is permanent. *The Daily*'s David Sanger argues the world no longer sees the US as a benevolent superpower, but as a volatile actor whose president threatened to wipe out a 5,000-year-old civilization. Gulf allies watched their infrastructure become targets, while Pacific partners face an existential choice: follow Washington into Middle Eastern escalation or secure energy by realigning toward Beijing. The war hasn't just changed the map; it has broken the trust that underpinned the American-led system.

WarEnergyDiplomacyMarketsChina

By the Numbers

  • 14 daysceasefire durationmetric
  • April 6date of Trump's 'power plant day' threatmetric
  • April 8date of Trump's 'whole civilization will die' threatmetric
  • 90 millionpopulation of Iran referenced in threatmetric
  • 2015year of Obama Iran nuclear dealmetric
  • April 8date of Kittleson's releasemetric

Entities Mentioned

BitcoinProtocol
BlackRockCompany
BlockstreamCompany
CENTCOMConcept
Chinacountry
coinsProduct
Drift ProtocolProduct
Federal Reserveinstitution
Genius ActConcept
Irancountry
Israelcountry
Jacob ShapiroPerson
Japancountry
MicroStrategyCompany
Russiacountry
Saudi Arabiacountry
ShrimpsProduct
South Koreacountry
Strait of Hormuzlocation
StrikeCompany
TrumpConcept
UAECompany
Ukrainecountry
United Kingdomcountry
United Statescountry
White HouseConcept

Source Intelligence

What each podcast actually said

The Daily
The Daily

A Cease-Fire in Iran • Apr 8

  • David Sanger notes the U.S. and Iran announced a 14-day ceasefire just before a Trump-imposed 8 p.m. deadline. Trump claimed Iran agreed to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragachi stated Iran would only cease defensive operations for two weeks. Safe passage through the strait requires coordination with Iran's armed forces, meaning they retain military control.
  • The White House claimed Israel agreed to the ceasefire terms, but Israel's statement only expressed support for Trump's decision without clear enthusiasm.
  • Trump's escalation included an April 6th social media post threatening to destroy Iranian power plants and bridges. On April offshore the F fighter jet that paused tensions.
  • Trump's April 8th social media post threatened the annihilation of Iranian civilization, which was interpreted as a threat against 90 million people. This sparked calls from Democrats and some MAGA figures to invoke the 25th Amendment.
  • Sanger argues the war empowered Iran by revealing its leverage over global commerce via the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict exposed Gulf state vulnerability and global supply chain fragility.
  • Sanger contends the U.S. military action severely damaged Iran's leadership and military, taking out the Supreme Leader and setting back missile and nuclear programs.
  • The core diplomatic challenge remains Iran's nuclear material. Trump's position has vacillated, but he likely must demand its complete removal to avoid a worse deal than the 2015 Obama agreement.
  • Sanger states the ceasefire's success depends on restoring pre-war shipping traffic through the strait and launching negotiations on larger issues, which will be far harder than the 2015 talks.
  • Sanger concludes the war damaged America's global reputation as a benevolent superpower. The threat of annihilation from a U.S. president overseeing the world's most powerful military altered global perceptions.
  • American journalist Shelley Kittleson was freed on April 8th after a week in captivity by an Iran-aligned Iraqi militia, exchanged for several imprisoned militia members.
WarDiplomacyMiddle East
Forward Guidance
Forward Guidance

The Iran War is Accelerating the End of Globalism | Jacob Shapiro • Apr 7

  • Jacob Shapiro initially predicted the US-Iran conflict would last less than four weeks, citing Iran's asymmetric advantages in geography and cheap weaponry that overwhelm US high-tech military assets.
  • The immediate macro impact hinges on ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which recently dropped to near zero but has risen to about 20% of normal levels.
  • Shapiro argues LNG and fertilizer shortages pose greater risks than oil, as Europe's post-Russia energy plan relied on new Gulf capacity and farmers have already missed annual application windows.
  • China's strategy toward Taiwan focuses on economic isolation and political erosion, not military invasion, a lesson reinforced by watching US and Russian failures in Iran and Ukraine.
  • The Philippines declared an energy emergency due to the Strait disruption, then immediately reopened energy talks with China, signaling how the war pressures US allies toward pragmatic realignment.

Also from this episode:

Business (3)
  • The Iran conflict accelerates existing trends of deglobalization and supply chain multipolarity, forcing investors to identify regions resilient to energy and food disruptions.
  • Mid-tier petrochemicals like plastics face severe shortages with no strategic reserves, while critical inputs like helium have stockpiles that mitigate immediate semiconductor risks.
  • Shapiro warns that if the conflict persists into May, global economic damage will intensify, with political instability likely following food price spikes in emerging markets.
Politics (1)
  • The US shale revolution removes its direct energy dependence on the Gulf, but Trump's political vulnerability stems from consumer price sensitivity, mirroring Biden's 2022 midterm pressures.
History (1)
  • Shapiro frames the current era as analogous to the 1890s, a period of great power shifts, energy transition, and technological revolution, not the 1930s path to world war.
AI & Tech (1)
  • He remains optimistic about long-term growth driven by AI, robotics, and a diversified energy transition, arguing investors should develop macro scenarios beyond daily headline noise.
MacroEnergyTradeChinaWar
Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

4/7/26: Trump Threatens Iranian Civilization, US Strikes Kharg Island, Trump Trashes US Allies • Apr 7

  • Trump posted a 'civilizational' threat to Iran, stating 'a whole civilization will die tonight' if the regime does not change, framing the conflict as a war against Persian civilization itself.
  • Trump set a deadline for Iran to capitulate at 8 PM Eastern Time, threatening to decimate every bridge and power plant in the country within a four-hour window from that time.
  • Trump justified targeting civilian infrastructure and potential war crimes by calling Iranians 'animals,' citing fabricated casualty figures from past protests.
  • Trump claimed the US has signal intercepts of Iranians begging to be bombed, a narrative hosts argue is manufactured by Western media and fringe diaspora elements.
  • Iran rejected a US-proposed temporary ceasefire, demanding a permanent end to the war and preservation of American dollar hegemony through a toll system in the Strait of Hormuz.
  • The US conducted new military strikes on Kharg Island, while Iran lifted all prior restraints on targeting energy infrastructure in retaliation.
  • Iranian strikes hit Saudi Arabia's Jubail industrial city and UAE's Asab oil field, damaging up to 20% of global petrochemical production and threatening the backbone of the modern economy.
  • Iran threatened to plunge Saudi Arabia and the entire Gulf region into darkness by striking their energy plants if the US attacks Iranian infrastructure.
  • Hosts argue the US and Israel are physically exhausted, having depleted munitions and aircraft, which explains the push for a ceasefire and Trump's maximalist rhetoric.
  • Trump publicly trashed key US allies Japan, South Korea, and Australia for not helping in the conflict, praising only Israel and the Gulf states.
  • Hosts claim the conflict has pushed the world to the brink of nuclear weapon use, with Trump's 'civilizational' language acting as a gateway to crossing that threshold.
  • The UK refused to allow use of its bases for strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, and Gulf financing for Western projects is being reconsidered due to infrastructure damage.

Also from this episode:

Politics (1)
  • Hosts criticize Trump advisors like JD Vance and Tulsi Gabbard for failing to confront him with the truth about the war's catastrophic global economic and strategic consequences.
WarEnergyMacroDiplomacyTrade

4/6/26: Iran Total Control On Hormuz, Energy Rationing, US Casualty Coverup, Iran Worried About US Nukes • Apr 6

  • Oil prices remain high despite rumors of a ceasefire, with Brent crude at $108 per barrel and WTI crude at $110 per barrel.
  • The US national average for gasoline is $4.11 per gallon, with California prices reaching $5.92. Diesel averages $5.61 per gallon, just 20 cents off its all-time high.
  • Iran has solidified control over the Strait of Hormuz, allowing only approved vessels like those from Iraq, France, Japan, and Oman to pass, reducing traffic to near record lows.
  • France voted against a UN Security Council resolution for a use-of-force mission to open the Strait of Hormuz, and a French vessel was subsequently allowed through.
  • Sagar argues the US Empire's core function of guaranteeing global trade is effectively over, as allies like France and Japan negotiate directly with Iran for Strait access.
  • Global energy rationing is emerging, with Europe imposing jet fuel restrictions, Bangladesh seeing fuel-related robberies, and Southeast Asian governments mandating work-from-home to conserve fuel.
  • Jet fuel scarcity is an underdiscussed crisis, with BP Italia canceling flights and forward contracts priced at $195 per barrel, threatening to make air travel and cargo radically more expensive.
  • Satellite firm Planet Labs has enacted a complete blackout of war imagery from the Iran region at the direct request of the US government, hindering independent damage assessment.
  • An Intercept report alleges a US casualty cover-up, with nearly 750 troops wounded or killed since October 2023 and CENTCOM providing outdated, low-ball figures to the press.
  • Trita Parsi states the Trump administration armed Kurdish militant groups during Iranian protests, which explains the unusual scale of violence from some protest elements at the time.
  • Parsi assesses that Trump's erratic threats, including an Easter message vowing 'hell,' signal desperation and have raised fears among former US officials that he may consider using nuclear weapons.
  • Parsi warns Iran's major escalatory card is attacking Gulf oil infrastructure, which could spike prices to $150-$200 per barrel and cause years-long supply shortages, unlike the current transit bottleneck.

Also from this episode:

Elections (2)
  • Voters with a negative view of both parties now favor Democrats by 31 points, a significant reversal from the last election.
  • Trump voter confidence has dropped, with only 62% now 'very confident' in their vote, down from 74% in April 2025.
WarMacroEnergyDiplomacyMarkets

4/6/26: Trump Moves Iran Deadline, Israel Hit By Missiles, US Pilot Rescue Operation • Apr 6

  • Trump publicly threatened to destroy all of Iran's power plants, petrochemical facilities, and bridges if Iran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with threats posted on Easter Sunday.
  • The US and Israel have discarded the traditional laws of war, reclassifying all infrastructure as a legitimate military target, which hosts argue enables asymmetric warfare by adversaries and puts civilians at greater risk.
  • Iran has rejected a proposed 45-day temporary ceasefire, with its Foreign Ministry stating a pause would only allow the US and Israel to regroup and rearm for a future war.
  • Trump has moved his own imposed deadline on Iran four times since March 21st, with the latest deadline set for Tuesday at 8 PM Eastern time on April 7th.
  • A US raid to rescue a downed F-15 weapons officer cost an estimated $400 million in destroyed aircraft, including two C-130s and multiple helicopters, raising questions about the mission's true objective and sustainability.
  • The official story of the rescue mission is disputed, with analysts like Brandon Wikert suggesting the scale of resources used and the location near Isfahan point to a potential failed secondary objective, such as a uranium hunt.
  • Iran maintains effective control over the Strait of Hormuz, with tanker traffic now contingent on paying Iran tolls, creating a new geopolitical reality where Iran has a veto over a critical global choke point.
  • Iranian missile strikes killed four people in Haifa, Israel, after an interceptor failed, demonstrating Iran's retained capacity to inflict damage and casualties despite US claims of degraded capabilities.
  • In retaliation for strikes on Haifa's refineries, Israel attacked Iran's largest petrochemical facility, which was responsible for 85% of Iran's petrochemical exports, according to Israel's Defense Minister.
  • Israel is severely rationing its Arrow 2 and 3 interceptor missiles, with analysis suggesting they would have run out days ago if the initial expenditure rate had continued, allowing more Iranian strikes to get through.
  • The US is cannibalizing its own weapons stockpiles and pulling KC-135 refuelers from the boneyard to sustain the war effort, indicating severe logistical strain, according to analyst Brandon Wikert.
  • Iran uses a resilient, low-tech communication network of buried field telephone wires and human messengers to coordinate missile launches, making its command structure difficult to disrupt even if power grids are destroyed.
  • Hosts argue the war has been a strategic failure for the US, as Iran's regime is stronger, the Strait of Hormuz is under its control, and US claims of total air superiority and 95% missile destruction have been proven false.
WarTradeMiddle East
BTC Sessions
BTC Sessions

The Real War Isn’t in Iran — It’s in the US Treasury Market | Luke Gromen & Lyn Alden • Apr 7

  • Luke Gromen argues the US Treasury market, not the military, is Iran's primary target. He states a prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure risks systemic collapse by disrupting the global energy and financial system.
  • Gromen and Lyn Alden agree a swift resolution to the Strait crisis is unlikely. They state even a best-case reopening would cause supply chain disruptions and inflation for three to five months.
  • Alden cites Egypt as a leading indicator of crisis impacts, where a tripled natural gas bill forced 9 PM curfews on businesses, devalued the currency by roughly 10%, and curtailed economic activity.
  • Gromen warns of nonlinear supply chain breaks from the energy shock. He argues gross self-sufficiency metrics are misleading, as missing minor components from affected regions can halt entire production lines globally.
  • Gromen states military action risks starvation for hundreds of millions by Christmas. He and Alden warn the crisis will cause severe food shortfalls in the global south, as fertilizer prices rise and wealthier nations outbid others.
  • Gromen points to a record $15 billion Treasury buyback and Fed reserve management as evidence of soft yield curve control, aimed at preventing the 10-year yield from breaking above 4.4%.
  • Gromen highlights Japan's emerging market behavior, where rising JGB yields relative to Treasuries weaken the yen instead of strengthening it. He monitors the dollar-yen times oil metric as pressure on US yields.
  • Alden explains the global piggy bank mechanism. Energy-importing nations like Japan must sell dollar assets, primarily Treasuries, to pay for oil when the dollar and oil price both rise, transmitting stress to US markets.
  • Gromen's base case for the conflict is administrative hubris, comparing it to kicking a beehive. He cites a credible source suggesting a US strategy to let Iran and Israel mutually degrade, as both threaten dollar hegemony.
  • Alden sides with Occam's razor, stating the administration underestimated Iran after the Venezuela operation. She criticizes a lack of strategic thinking, citing failed Dogecoin policies and tariff overreach.
  • Gromen defines a US 'Suez moment' as the best-case outcome: walking away, allowing a yuan-for-gold-for-oil system, leading to dollar devaluation, high inflation, yield curve control, and capital controls in the US.
  • Alden argues the dollar system has entrenched longevity due to tens of trillions in dollar-denominated debt. She sees a gradual shift to a multi-polar reserve system, accelerated but not caused by this crisis.
  • Gromen sees gold as the escape hatch from dollar debt. A revaluation of global gold collateral via an oil-linked price surge could allow the world to redenominate claims without a catastrophic financial crisis.
  • Both analysts are cautious on Bitcoin in the near term, correlating it with software stocks. They expect risk asset declines if the crisis prolongs, but see sharp sell-offs from liquidity events as buying opportunities.

Also from this episode:

Macro (1)
  • Alden explains manufacturing's network effect, using a consumer products company example. They found US manufacturers could not replicate Chinese-made parts at any reasonable cost, requiring product simplification.
Inflation (1)
  • Alden distinguishes between temporary price inflation from supply shocks and permanent inflation from monetary stimulus. She notes initial demand destruction in discretionary spending can precede a debt-driven monetary response.
Fed (2)
  • Gromen argues the US faces a fiscal death spiral. With interest and entitlements consuming over 100% of receipts, a recession-induced drop in tax revenue will force a choice between default and monetizing debt.
  • Alden outlines the monetization sequence: breaking funding markets lead to Fed liquidity facilities, then balance sheet expansion, and finally Treasury buybacks. She notes the Fed will act to prevent a failed Treasury auction.
MacroFedEnergyBanking
The Jack Mallers Show
The Jack Mallers Show

Jack Mallers

We Were Right. Now What? • Apr 7

  • Mallers asserts the US strategy in the Strait of Hormuz has failed, as evidenced by Trump extending military deadlines multiple times and Iran rejecting ceasefire offers while allowing only select ships passage under its terms.
  • The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for 15-20% of global oil flow, is causing severe commodity inflation. Brent crude is up 50%, diesel nearly 50%, and jet fuel up 95% according to the data Mallers cites.
  • Mallers cites Jerome Powell stating the Fed will 'look past' the oil price shock, which he interprets as a signal the central bank will not hike rates and may cut them to avoid a sovereign debt crisis given high US interest expenses.
  • He advises financial prudence: earn more than you consume, review debt, turn on Bitcoin DCA strategies, and avoid trying to time the market amid global economic fragility, while maintaining that no one is coming to save individuals.

Also from this episode:

Politics (1)
  • Mallers argues the US faces a monetary trilemma: forcibly reopen the strait at high cost, negotiate a deal that looks like a loss, or print money to manage the ensuing economic crisis. He believes all paths lead to significant money printing.
Business (2)
  • March ISM data shows services employment collapsing while prices rise, a classic stagflation signal Mallers calls the Fed's worst nightmare, forcing a choice between fighting inflation or supporting a weakening economy.
  • Mallers connects systemic failures in money, food, and health, arguing fiat currency debasement leads corporations to optimize for cheap, processed food ingredients, which in turn contributes to metabolic disease and rising cancer rates.
Adoption (4)
  • Mallers highlights a shift away from the petrodollar, noting Iran is reportedly allowing ships through the strait in exchange for Chinese yuan or stablecoins, not dollars, due to OFAC sanctions fear, which he sees as a monetary order change.
  • Strike is developing a yield-on-cash product where customer fiat could fund overcollateralized Bitcoin-backed loans, aiming to offer returns above the Fed funds rate by lending to productive Bitcoiners rather than the US government.
  • He believes Bitcoin adoption for payments is limited not by technology but by Gresham's Law and incentives, as people prefer to save appreciating Bitcoin and spend depreciating fiat, especially when credit cards offer cash back and rewards.
  • Mallers frames the current era as a battle for the future monetary order, with Bitcoin representing an open-source, proof-of-work alternative to a potential gold-backed Chinese yuan system or a failing fiat regime.
Science (1)
  • Mallers personally follows a carnivore/keto diet and periodic fasting, arguing it avoids processed foods he links to spiking cancer rates. He cites the Warburg effect, claiming cancer cells are glucose-dependent and ketosis starves them.
MacroEnergyBTC MarketsHealthBanking
Bitcoin And | Bitcoin & Economic News
Bitcoin And | Bitcoin & Economic News

Well, Poop | Bitcoin News • Apr 2

  • President Trump pledged to hit Iran extremely hard over the next two to three weeks during a primetime address on the Middle East war.
  • David Bennett notes that every statement from the administration about Iran pushes oil prices down temporarily, but they always bounce back.
  • Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a $296.18 million outflow last week, ending a four-week inflow streak.
  • Jeff May says risk assets fell because Trump's speech gave no indication he planned to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
  • On prediction market Myriad, users put a 74% chance crude oil will hit $120 a barrel.
  • BlackRock filed an amended S1 for its iShares Bitcoin premium income ETF, which will trade under ticker BITA.
  • Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas says the BlackRock fund has no set management fee, with his estimate at 38 basis points.
  • BlackRock's proposed ETF will hold Bitcoin-linked assets like its spot ETF shares and write covered call options to generate income.
  • David Bennett argues BlackRock's move into yield-focused Bitcoin products is a direct response to Michael Saylor's strategy.
  • Interactive Brokers launched crypto trading for retail investors across the European Economic Area via its Irish subsidiary.
  • The Interactive Brokers offering gives access to 11 digital assets within a single account through a partnership with XeroHash.
  • West Texas Intermediate crude oil was at $111.39 per barrel, while TradingView's price oracle showed $102.66, indicating a significant arbitrage gap.
  • The Solana-based Drift protocol was exploited, with losses estimated between $200 million and $270 million.
  • One transfer in the Drift exploit involved 41.7 million JLP tokens worth about $155 million.
  • The Drift exploit attacker began swapping stolen assets into USDC using Jupiter and bridging to Ethereum to buy ETH.
  • Drift Protocol had total value locked above $550 million before the exploit.

Also from this episode:

BTC Markets (2)
  • Bitcoin, gold, and U.S. stocks declined after Trump's address, with Bitcoin's resilience surprising Bennett.
  • Bitcoin's price was $66,810 with a market cap of $1.34 trillion and 20,010,332.41 coins in circulation.
Stablecoins (8)
  • Fed Governor Michael Barr says stablecoin accessibility presents AML risks and regulators need tighter controls.
  • Goldman Sachs data shows 66% of stablecoins are held by individuals in emerging markets.
  • Nicholas Anthony suggests Barr's call for AML controls could involve deploying smart contracts for automatic flags and freezes.
  • Intergovernmental agencies like FATF have called on stablecoin issuers to implement technical measures to block, freeze, and withdraw stablecoins.
  • A recent Florida stablecoin bill includes transaction monitoring and a $10,000 reporting threshold.
  • The U.S. Treasury released an 87-page proposed rulemaking for the Genius Act, opening a 60-day public comment period.
  • Under the Genius Act, stablecoin issuers with less than $10 billion in supply can opt for state regulation if states meet federal standards.
  • The Treasury proposal anchors the federal benchmark to rules issued by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.
Digital Sovereignty (1)
  • David Bennett argues free and open source software is the true escape hatch from financial control, not just Bitcoin or Nostr.
Adoption (2)
  • The Human Rights Foundation announced 1.5 billion satoshis in new grants through its Bitcoin Development Fund.
  • HRF's grants support 26 projects across Bitcoin privacy, payments, development, community, freedom tech, and research.
Protocol (3)
  • Blockstream researcher Jonas Nick presented Shrimps, a post-quantum signature scheme for Bitcoin that supports multi-device signing.
  • Shrimps signatures are around 2.5 kilobytes, compared to SLH-DSA's 7.8 kilobytes, offering a compactness advantage.
  • David Bennett notes Bitcoin developers have been working on quantum resistance for years, countering claims that no one is addressing the threat.
EnergyMarketsRegulation

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