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Iran uses Bitcoin tolls to split US allies as Hormuz blockade leaks

Wednesday, April 15, 2026 · from 4 podcasts, 5 episodes
4 SOURCESPresidio Bitcoin JamCoin Stories with Natalie…Breaking PointsBitcoin And
  • US allies are refusing to join Trump's Hormuz blockade, with South Korea negotiating directly with Tehran.
  • Iran's $1 Bitcoin toll for oil tankers creates a sanctions-proof monetary channel.
  • China is shipping missiles to Iran, shifting from mediator to active participant.

Allies are abandoning the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The UK, France, and Japan have declined to join, and South Korea has sent a special envoy to Tehran to negotiate safe passage for its vessels, directly contradicting Washington's directives.

Open-source satellite data contradicts White House claims of success. On a day President Trump claimed 34 ships passed through the blockade, macro-intelligence firms recorded only four. Sanctioned tankers linked to China are already testing the perimeter, spoofing their locations.

"Trump’s unilateral blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is leaking."

- Saagar Enjeti, Breaking Points

Iran is exploiting the chaos for financial and geopolitical gain. The regime is reportedly charging a $1-per-barrel toll for tankers, with Bitcoin as a primary settlement option. This creates a monetary channel immune to Western asset freezes, repricing Bitcoin as resilient geopolitical infrastructure rather than just a speculative asset.

China is moving from backroom mediator to active participant. Intelligence suggests Beijing is now shipping shoulder-fired missiles and military chemicals to Iran, according to Breaking Points. This escalates the conflict as 40% of China's oil flows through the Strait, putting a US-Chinese naval confrontation on the table.

The military balance has shifted. U.S. aircraft carriers are being pulled back from the Persian Gulf because they are too vulnerable to cheap Iranian drones, a lesson learned from the Ukraine war. Saagar Enjeti reported that a KC-135 tanker was recently photographed covered in shrapnel patches after a drone encounter.

Diplomatic talks have collapsed over maximalist demands. The US is demanding a 20-year moratorium on Iranian uranium enrichment, while Iran has only offered five years - unchanged from its position in February. Senator Lindsey Graham opposes any enrichment, a position Saagar Enjeti classifies as a functional declaration of war.

"The blood and treasure spent over the last six weeks have yielded zero movement in the Iranian bargaining position."

- Saagar Enjeti, Breaking Points

This failure forces a global realignment. Nations are choosing between US pressure and the practical need for energy, with Iran using Bitcoin tolls and asymmetric warfare to fracture the coalition against it.

ProtocolWarDiplomacy
TrumpBitcoinChinaFranceIranJapanSouth KoreaStrait of Hormuz

Source Intelligence

- Deep dive into what was said in the episodes

Presidio Bitcoin Jam
Presidio Bitcoin Jam

Presidio Bitcoin's Quantum Readiness Report, Iran Wants Bitcoin, Can Mythos Break Bitcoin? • Apr 14

  • Bitcoin's perceived use case in Iran highlights its role in circumventing sanctions and its significant liquidity and network effects, enabling transactions for nation-states under economic duress.
  • The sovereign individual thesis, advocating for individual power through technology like cryptography, faces a challenge if advanced AI centralizes capabilities, especially around violence and cyberattacks.
  • Presidio Bitcoin released its Quantum Readiness Report, an open-source, living document on GitHub designed to provide a balanced, comprehensive, and investor-friendly overview of quantum computing threats to Bitcoin.
  • The report outlines various scenarios for quantum threat timelines, ranging from two years to never, and proposes a plan for Bitcoin's resilience, including the potential to move 80-20% of vulnerable coins in a day.
  • Lalu prototyped a quantum-safe transaction method for Bitcoin that does not require consensus changes, utilizing a hashing algorithm to protect coins, though it incurs a cost of approximately $150 per UTXO.
  • This prototype results in non-standard transactions that are not automatically relayed by the Bitcoin network, requiring centralized services or direct miner agreements for inclusion.
  • Daniel Burr proposed a method using Taproot's script scheme to signal quantum proofing, potentially allowing users to opt-in for future quantum-resistant upgrades to their Taproot-based coin spending paths.
Also from this episode: (7)

Startups (2)

  • Steve announces Presidio Bitcoin will host a hub for hack-nation.ai, a global hackathon in April, where Spiral is sponsoring a challenge focused on AI agents earning money via the Bitcoin Lightning Network.
  • The hackathon specifically targets non-Bitcoiners, presenting a challenge for Spiral to attract participants to Bitcoin-related projects and educate a broader tech audience.

Nation-State (1)

  • Reports suggest Iran is demanding Bitcoin, Chinese yuan, or stablecoins as a toll for ships passing through its national waters in the Strait of Hormuz, though the truth of these claims remains unclear.

Big Tech (1)

  • Max notes that Anthropic's revenue growth is substantial, potentially outpacing Google and the U.S. federal government, raising questions about the future power dynamics between AI companies and nation-states.

AI & Tech (3)

  • DK highlights that Anthropic recently 'nerfed' its public models, causing user dissatisfaction and questioning whether its lead over competitors like Google and OpenAI is sustainable or due to unsustainable margins.
  • Max and DK discuss the emerging risk for companies that become dependent on a single AI model provider, facing potential feature reductions or price hikes without control, emphasizing the need for multi-model strategies.
  • Google's recent paper suggesting quantum computing can accelerate AI is seen as a significant development, potentially increasing investment and compressing the timeline for viable quantum computers.
DiplomacyTradeBTC MarketsMacroModels
Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell
Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell

Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell

Simon Dixon: The American Empire Is Being Dismantled on Purpose • Apr 14

  • Dixon predicted Trump's reelection and war with Iran by following his backers: Elon Musk (technical-industrial complex), the Mellon banking dynasty (financial-industrial complex), and Miriam Adelson (military-industrial complex).
  • Dixon argues the financial-industrial complex is trying to centralize Bitcoin through ETFs, treasury companies, and leveraged custody products, using tax incentives to draw holders into the banking system while allowing self-custody as an escape valve for elites.
  • He believes Bitcoin adoption spikes during disasters like the Cypriot bail-ins or exchange failures, when people realize the need for self-custody, but most will opt for convenience over sovereignty.
  • Dixon advocates measuring wealth in Bitcoin, accumulating it monthly regardless of price, and using it to build parallel local economies and supply chains as governments move toward Orwellian surveillance states.
  • He views Bitcoin's survival as non-inevitable, requiring constant vigilance against centralization risks in mining, nodes, and development, with community pushback being its key anti-fragile strength.
Also from this episode: (7)

Politics (2)

  • Simon Dixon argues the world is shifting to multipolarity, with Western governments fully captured by a financial-industrial complex that uses media as propaganda and algorithms to weaponize the populace.
  • He argues Trump's DOGE initiative was a data collection exercise for XAI and Palantir, while tariffs accelerated multipolarity by pushing trade toward China and BRICS and causing small business bankruptcies that benefited BlackRock.

Business (2)

  • Dixon states the financial-industrial complex controls fiat currency creation through private banks, central banking, and the Bank for International Settlements, turning individuals into collateralized debt obligations within a Ponzi scheme requiring perpetual debt rollover.
  • He claims asset managers like BlackRock, State Street, and Vanguard control global capital through ETFs and pensions, securing board seats on public companies and subordinating politicians who auction their services to the highest lobbying bidder.

Corruption (1)

  • Dixon states the release of the Epstein files strategically weakened the dollar by exposing institutions like USAID and the National Endowment for Democracy, with banks like JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank having already settled with victims.

Macro (1)

  • He claims the post-Bretton Woods system is ending, replaced by multipolar central bank digital currencies, stablecoins, and neutral reserve assets like gold, with projects like mBridge and China's SIPs creating alternative payment rails.

BTC Markets (1)

  • Dixon connects financial decisions to spiritual energy, arguing that morally wrong investments tend to fail, citing his loss in Celsius the same day his father died as a lesson against borrowing against Bitcoin.
MacroBTC MarketsDiplomacyTradeFed
Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

4/14/26: China Challenges Trump Blockade, Lindsey Graham Peace Sabotage, Israel Freaks Over IDF Soldier Viral Pic • Apr 14

  • Saagar reports the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is not working. A TankerTrackers report shows a US-sanctioned tanker linked to China tested the blockade, and three separate ships got through the Strait yesterday.
  • Saagar notes key US allies like the UK, France, and South Korea have refused to join Trump's blockade of Iran. The UK's Keir Starmer explicitly said his country would not join.
  • Emily and Saagar discuss how the USS George H.W. Bush carrier is sailing around the entire African continent to avoid the Red Sea and Houthi threats. Saagar calls this humiliating and a multi-million dollar decision reflecting US fear of the Houthis.
  • Saagar cites a Wall Street Journal report that Saudi Arabia is urging Trump to reverse the blockade, fearing Iran could close the Red Sea and cut off 75% of Saudi oil exports.
  • Vice President JD Vance admitted the US is engaging in economic terrorism against Iran, stating 'two can play at that game' after Iran closed the Strait. Emily argues this undermines the claim that the US holds itself to a higher standard.
  • Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated JD Vance 'reported to me in detail' on negotiations. The Israeli government's official translation later changed 'reported' to 'briefed,' creating controversy over the nature of the US-Israel relationship.
  • Saagar explains the core dispute in Iran-US talks is the uranium enrichment freeze. The US demands a 20-year moratorium and removal of all enriched material, while Iran has only offered a 5-year freeze, unchanged from its February position.
  • Senator Lindsey Graham opposes any enrichment moratorium for Iran, arguing for a permanent ban and equating the Iranian regime with al-Qaeda. Saagar notes this is a more maximalist position than the administration's reported 20-year demand.
  • Nikki Haley suggested on CNN that a US special forces mission to extract Iran's enriched uranium is 'probably what it's going to come down to,' estimating it would take a week to ten days.
Also from this episode: (3)

Media (1)

  • Italian magazine L'Espresso published a cover photo of an IDF soldier filming a Palestinian woman during a West Bank olive tree uprooting. The Israeli ambassador to Italy initially claimed it was AI-generated but later admitted it was hard to prove.

Energy (2)

  • Saagar reports national gas prices are at $4.11 per gallon, with California at $5.88 and diesel at $5.65, citing the economic impact of the Iran conflict and blockade.
  • OPEC announced a 27% cut in oil production for March, exacerbating global supply shortages amid the Strait of Hormuz blockade.
WarDiplomacyChinaTrade

4/13/26: Trump Blockades Hormuz Strait, Negotiations Break Down, Gas Prices Spike • Apr 13

  • Saagar states President Trump ordered a full US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after peace talks with Iran collapsed in Islamabad, effective at 10 a.m. Eastern time. Central Command warns any vessel headed to or from Iran is subject to interception.
  • Krystal argues the blockade is strategically incoherent, noting 40% of Strait oil flows to China. She questions if the US would fire on Chinese tankers, risking a wider conflict, and points out that key allies like Britain and Australia have refused to join the operation.
  • Saagar analyzes that Iran's primary objective is not to close the Strait but to control it, collecting tolls and forcing countries like South Korea and Japan back into its economic orbit. This allows some oil flow, easing global price pressure but enriching Iran.
  • Trita Parsi assesses the failed Islamabad talks, stating US demands for zero Iranian uranium enrichment were a non-starter adopted from Israel. He notes the ceasefire still holds, suggesting negotiations may not be dead, but the US could walk away and accept a new status quo.
  • Oil analyst Rory Johnston states the war has already shut in 13 million barrels per day of Gulf production, with cumulative losses exceeding 400 million barrels. A blockade removing Iranian oil would raise the deficit to 15 million barrels per day.
  • Johnston warns physical crude cargoes are trading over $150 per barrel, and US national average gas prices could hit $6 per gallon by June if the Strait remains closed. Diesel and jet fuel shortages are already emerging, with European suppliers unable to guarantee shipments past April.
  • Johnston notes the crisis is more dire for Asia, which receives most Strait oil. He points to Singaporean jet fuel prices above $200 per barrel and predicts Asian governments may impose mobility restrictions like odd-even license plate rules.
  • Saagar cites military analysis that drones have radically altered warfare, making US aircraft carriers vulnerable and partly obsolete. The drone threat prevented the US from securing the Strait at the conflict's outset.
  • Krystal highlights domestic political pressure, noting the US public opposes the war and rising gas prices. She and Saagar question the administration's seriousness, pointing to Trump and Secretary Rubio attending a UFC event while talks collapsed.
  • Parsi assesses the UAE made a strategic error by aligning with Israel against Iran via the Abraham Accords, becoming a frontline state. He notes some GCC countries are privately pleased to see UAE influence set back by Iranian strikes.
Also from this episode: (1)

Politics (1)

  • Parsi argues Iran prepared for a blockade by positioning significant oil in floating storage outside the Gulf, much of it destined for China via a 'ghost fleet' of tankers. A full blockade would also punish China and India, creating a direct confrontation.
WarDiplomacyChinaMacro
Bitcoin And | Bitcoin & Economic News
Bitcoin And | Bitcoin & Economic News

Strait To Weird | Bitcoin News • Apr 13

  • David Bennett questions the feasibility of a US Navy blockade of Iranian ports, noting intelligence lag and uncertainty over detecting crypto payments.
  • Allard's analysis argues the Iran war highlights Bitcoin's value as an open settlement network immune to correspondent banking or state control.
  • Iran's 2025 crypto transaction volume was $8-11 billion, with researchers noting millions moved from Iranian exchanges after strikes.
  • Since the Iran war started February 28, 2026, IBIT gained 11.75% while SPY fell 0.6%, gold fell 9.6%, and silver fell 18.72%.
  • Bennett advocates for Cold Card over Ledger, citing Ledger's repeated hacks and scams, and notes Cold Card's open-source design.
  • Bitget launched Pre-SPECS token offering retail exposure to SpaceX's $1.75 trillion IPO, but grants no equity, voting rights, or ownership.
  • WLE threatens legal action against Justin Sun after he accused the Trump-linked project of treating users as ATMs over a $75 million stablecoin loan.
Also from this episode: (6)

Custody (1)

  • Garrett Dutton lost 5.9 Bitcoin ($420,000) to a fake Ledger app on the App Store, part of a pattern targeting Ledger users.

Stablecoins (1)

  • Jeremy Allaire defended Circle's decision not to freeze USDC in the Drift exploit, citing legal obligation and moral quandary unless law enforcement directs action.

ETFs (1)

  • Morgan Stanley plans tokenized money market funds and crypto tax strategies after launching its Bitcoin ETF, aiming to expand beyond Bitcoin.

BTC Markets (3)

  • Trump meme coin holders are invited to a Mar-a-Lago luncheon, with the top 29 getting a private reception, drawing criticism for pay-to-play conflicts.
  • MicroStrategy bought 13,927 Bitcoin for $1 billion entirely through STRCH sales, bringing its holdings to 780,897 BTC at an average cost of $75,577.
  • Bennett warns against NewsBTC's constant negative Bitcoin headlines, noting their claims about STRCH failing were contradicted by MicroStrategy's $1 billion purchase.
BTC MarketsStablecoinsBankingMacroCustody

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