War (2)

• Iranian Foreign Minister Syed Abbas Aragotchi declared the Strait of Hormuz 'completely open' for the remaining one week of the ceasefire, which sent West Texas Intermediate crude down nearly 10% to $85.90 a barrel.
• The U.S. and Iran are negotiating a plan that includes the U.S. releasing $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds in return for Iran giving up its stockpile of enriched uranium.

Protocol (7)

• Citi Group analysis found that a portfolio allocation split between gold and Bitcoin improves returns in bond bull markets and provides resilience during bear steepening cycles tied to fiscal concerns.
• Citi analyst Alex Saunders noted Bitcoin has risen 9% over the past two months while spot gold declined 4%, and that Bitcoin often outperforms gold when bond markets weaken.
• The narrative that Iran would require Bitcoin-based tolls for oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, attributed to an Iranian energy union official, was repeatedly amplified by global media, shifting Bitcoin's perception toward a geopolitical instrument.
• The U.S. government moved 8 Bitcoin linked to the 2016 Bitfinex hack, worth $606,000, to Coinbase Prime, raising questions about its intended destination despite court-mandated restitution to Bitfinex.
• The U.S. government holds seized cryptocurrency valued at about $24.5 billion, which it said would form part of a national strategic Bitcoin reserve.
• Charles Schwab is launching direct spot Bitcoin and Ethereum trading for retail clients through its Schwab Crypto platform, with Paxos handling sub-custody and a transaction fee of 20 basis points.
• David Bennett reported a bot attack caused Fountain's API to backlog Podcast Index with 500,000 polling requests, preventing his last two episodes from distributing and cratering his download numbers.

AI & Tech (1)

• A security researcher discovered sophisticated counterfeit Ledger Nano S Plus devices on a Chinese marketplace, featuring tampered hardware and firmware designed to steal seed phrases via a malicious Ledger Live app.

Macro (3)

• He outlines a 'three burners' macro framework: liquidity, manufacturing PMI, and leverage. Ross sees the 'liquidity blob' expanding due to U.S. fiscal war spending, a recovery in the ISM Manufacturing PMI above 50, and a resurgence in bank lending.
• Ross forecasts a multipolar end to U.S. dollar hegemony, with oil increasingly traded in yuan and gold. He interprets U.S. inaction over yuan-based Strait of Hormuz payments as tacit acceptance of this new reality, marking the end of the petrodollar system.
• He references a historical theory that a hegemon's decline begins when its debt interest payments exceed military spending, a threshold the U.S. has now crossed.

Inflation (1)

• Ross believes the U.S. is entering a period of 'structural inflation' in the 3-6% CPI range, driven by costly onshoring of manufacturing and military buildup. He argues this environment necessitates eventual yield curve control, a form of financial repression that erodes citizen purchasing power.

War (1)

• He asserts the U.S. is already in World War III, a conflict seeded in 2008 and marked by proxy wars. Ross predicts a U.S. move to seize Iran's Karg Island to control the Strait of Hormuz, aiming to pressure Iran and gain leverage over China, which is dependent on oil imports.

Fed (1)

• He views the Federal Reserve as currently irrelevant, 'neutered' by the Treasury, and expects it to become a tool for yield curve control only when war borrowing overwhelms private demand for U.S. debt.

AI & Tech (1)

• Ross argues AI-driven 'jobless recovery' will create a desperate white-collar class, necessitating a wealth redistribution like UBI. He claims this is not socialist dogma but a pragmatic response to humans competing against superior AI, citing potential civil unrest.

Business (3)

• Eric Townsend notes the physical oil disruption hasn't started; the last VLCC transited on February 28th, and its cargo won't arrive until mid-April, creating a 6-week air pocket in global supply that will hit regions sequentially.
• Gromen cites a 2015 Our World in Data chart showing global population without synthetic nitrogen fertilizer would drop from 7.5 billion to 3.9 billion, framing the fertilizer shortage as a marginal threat to food supplies.
• Gromen identifies 4.4% on the US 10-year Treasury yield as a key bogey for the Treasury, citing a record $15 billion single-day buyback to defend that level.

Macro (2)

• Gromen notes US interest and entitlement costs reached 102% of federal receipts for the first half of FY2026, creating a dynamic where a recession would force the government to choose between default or money printing.
• Gromen highlights a shift in Treasury ownership from patient foreign central banks to leveraged hedge funds, citing a Fed white paper showing 37% of net Treasury issuance over four years went to Cayman Islands entities.

Energy (3)

• Rory Johnston states that despite market optimism, only small ships are transiting Hormuz; no non-Iranian VLCCs have passed since Saturday, April 12th, keeping the bulk of the Gulf's 13 million barrels per day production shut in.
• Johnston explains the US blockade now targets Iranian oil exports, moving from a permissive price-cap stance to maximum economic pressure, which could escalate the supply shock if Iran shuts in its own production.
• Johnston observes an unprecedented dislocation between physical and futures oil prices, with dated Brent at $132 versus $100 for June futures, and a Sri Lanka cargo delivered at $286 a barrel.

Markets (3)

• Patrick Sesna presents a structured options trade on TLT: buy a Jan 2027 $87 call for ~$3.25 and sell a Jun 2026 $85/$83 put spread for ~$0.45, aiming to hedge near-term inflation-driven yield spikes while positioning for a later growth-driven rally.
• Sesna notes the S&P 500 rally to 7,023 was a flows-driven squeeze concentrated in MAG7 stocks, with market breadth still weak, leaving direction dependent on upcoming earnings beats.
• Townson and Sesna agree the market is prematurely pricing an all-clear on Hormuz, underestimating lagged supply impacts and the risk of Houthi action closing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which would add two weeks to shipping times.

War (5)

• Iran secretly acquired a Chinese spy satellite, the TEEO 1B, in late 2024 and used it in March to monitor and guide strikes against US military bases.
• A US Navy MQ-4C surveillance drone disappeared over the Persian Gulf on April 9 after declaring an inflight emergency, likely shot down. Its loss adds to billions in US equipment destroyed, including tankers and a $700M aircraft.
• Conservative estimates put the operating cost of the Iran war at $35-40B, with soft costs pushing the total near $80B. US ballistic missile interception capacity was degraded to 30-40%.
• US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessett threatened Chinese banks with secondary sanctions if they continue processing Iranian payments. China previously purchased over 90% of Iran's oil.
• Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund, facing economic pressure from the Iran war, is pulling back from flashy projects and may cut its $5B investment in LIV Golf.

Energy (1)

• OPEC cut production by 27% in March due to the Iran war, severely reducing Gulf state oil sales and forcing Saudi Arabia to reassess its global investment strategy.

Business (3)

• Corporate profit margins are near record highs, with companies raising prices beyond input cost increases to maintain profit streaks, a practice the hosts call 'greedflation.'
• A US tariff refund system launching April 20 will refund companies $166B with interest. Krystal argues companies will pocket the refunds via stock buybacks rather than passing savings to consumers.
• The 'Enhanced Deduction for Senior' allows 30M seniors to deduct $225B from taxable income, creating a system where a 25-year-old couple pays $3,000 more in taxes than a 65-year-old couple with identical income.

Trade (1)

• TankerTrackers reports Iran shipped 9M barrels of crude from Gulf of Oman floating storage after the US blockade began, contradicting US Navy claims of turning back 13 ships.

War (9)

• The U.S. is enforcing a naval blockade of Iran to halt its oil and gas shipments, aiming to collapse the Iranian economy and force Tehran back into negotiations to end the war.
• A naval blockade is an act of war involving a military threat to block or seize ships. The U.S. Navy has deployed over a dozen warships and 10,000 sailors outside the Strait of Hormuz to enforce it.
• Iran's government and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps rely almost entirely on oil export revenue to fund the war, making them the specific targets of the U.S. blockade.
• Major risks of the blockade include Iranian military retaliation against U.S. ships, Chinese anger as 90% of Iran's oil exports go to China, and Iranian attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure.
• Rebecca Elliott notes Iran has damaged over 80 energy sites in the region; the International Energy Agency estimates restoring pre-war production could take two years.
• In its first 48 hours, the blockade successfully halted Iranian oil exports, with six vessels turning back after U.S. contact, but it hasn't yet secured free passage for other Gulf states' commerce.
• Eric Schmidt reports a U.S. official said about 20 commercial vessels transited the strait in the first 24 hours, but it's unclear if this indicates renewed shipper confidence or is a temporary spurt.
• David Sanger and Rebecca Elliott doubt the Strait of Hormuz will return to being a free, unimpeded waterway, as Iran has discovered its power to control the chokepoint with mines and missile threats.
• Proposals for the strait's future include an international consortium involving Iran, Oman, the U.S., and consuming nations like China to manage transit and security, a model requiring diplomacy the Trump administration has avoided.

Diplomacy (1)

• The blockade emerged after Iran sent Vice President J.D. Vance home from failed negotiations in Pakistan and maintained control over the Strait of Hormuz, demanding tolls from shipping.