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Trump pushes oil deals over democracy in Venezuela

Sunday, April 19, 2026 · from 1 podcast
1 SOURCEThe Economist
  • The Trump administration prioritizes Venezuelan oil access, sidelining urgent democratic reforms.
  • Maria Corina Machado demands elections within 40 weeks, calling delay a risk for violence.
  • Despite optimism, 480 political prisoners remain and repression continues under new leadership.

The Trump administration is betting that oil can stabilize Venezuela faster than democracy. With Nicolás Maduro removed and his deputy Dulce Rodriguez holding power under U.S. guidance, Washington’s immediate focus is not on free elections - but on rewriting investment laws to open the country’s vast oil reserves to American firms.

According to Kinley Salmon, Latin America correspondent for The Intelligence from The Economist, the White House sees economic liberalization as the first domino. "The Americans are pushing for immediate changes to investment laws to benefit U.S. firms," she reports. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Energy Secretary Chris Wright have mentioned elections - "within Trump’s term" - but offered no concrete timeline, leaving democracy as a secondary objective.

"The regime is using the reprieve to consolidate under Rodriguez."

- Kinley Salmon, The Intelligence from The Economist

In Caracas, the mood among the elite is bullish. At the Caracas Country Club, businessmen anticipate a windfall. The Chávista power structure remains largely intact, tolerated as long as oil production resumes. The U.S. gamble is clear: economic momentum will eventually force political change. But for now, stability means keeping the old guard in place.

Meanwhile, opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, operating from temporary offices near the White House, rejects any transition that doesn’t center elections. A Nobel Peace Laureate, she argues the regime is at its weakest and that delaying a vote risks violent instability. She has set a precise benchmark: 40 weeks to prepare for a fair election.

"Delaying a vote only risks violent instability."

- Maria Corina Machado, opposition leader

Her return to Venezuela looms as a flashpoint. Will the Rodriguez government arrest a globally recognized dissident on arrival - or allow a rally that proves their unpopularity? The world will be watching. For now, the regime is attempting a balancing act: easing visible repression to attract investors while maintaining control behind the scenes.

Even as protests surge - over 1,200 in early 2024 - 480 political prisoners remain detained. At the Heliocoide prison, families still hold vigils. Released detainees are often under house arrest, subjected to hourly check-ins. The machinery of repression hasn’t been dismantled - only quieted. The transition favors investors over citizens, and technocrats over voters.

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The Intelligence from The Economist
The Intelligence from The Economist

Inside Caracas: Venezuela after Maduro • Apr 17

Also from this episode: (13)

Other (13)

  • Kinley Salmon reports Venezuela feels optimistic 100 days after American special forces seized Nicolas Maduro, with political rallies now possible where they weren't before.
  • Delcy Rodriguez now leads Venezuela as Maduro's deputy under US pressure, but the Chavismo regime retains power. She has replaced some Maduro loyalists with technocrats.
  • US policy under Trump focuses on oil investment and economic liberalization over democratic reform, with sanctions lifted on Rodriguez.
  • Venezuela faces a devastating legacy: 8 million people have fled since 2015, with 600% inflation this February and the world's largest untapped oil reserves.
  • Repression persists despite changes. While 700 political prisoners were released since January, 480 remain incarcerated. Some freed prisoners, like María Corina Machado's former lawyer, remain under house arrest.
  • Protests have surged, with 1,200 recorded across Venezuela in January and February, as public fear declines.
  • Opposition leader María Corina Machado believes the regime is at its weakest point and that elections are feasible. She estimates organizing a credible vote would take 40 weeks.
  • Machado argues that postponing elections creates instability and that the people, not the regime, should choose Venezuela's leadership. She won an opposition primary with 92% of votes.
  • US Energy Secretary Chris Wright publicly stated he expects Venezuelan elections during Trump's term, providing the first specific timing expectation.
  • Machado's return to Venezuela represents a potential turning point, forcing the regime to choose between repressing mass rallies or appearing weak. Trump has advised her to delay her return.
  • Nick Pope, Britain's former MOD UFO hotline manager, analyzed 200-300 annual public reports. He found 80% explainable, 15% odd but uninterpretable, and 5% truly inexplicable.
  • Pope considered military pilot testimony under oath the most compelling evidence for UFO phenomena, though he remained agnostic on ultimate explanations.
  • Public interest in UFOs peaked after the 1950s Roswell incident and surged again in the early 21st century with Congressional testimony from military personnel.
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