Bitcoin is no longer waiting for permission to become global money. It’s already processing more transactions annually than Fedwire - the backbone of U.S. high-value settlements - despite having just a fraction of its nominal value in circulation.
According to Matthew Mežinskis on TFTC, Bitcoin handled 373 million transactions in the past year. Fedwire, by comparison, settled 219 million. The crossover happened back in 2016, and the gap has only widened since. This isn’t about dollar volume yet - Fedwire still moves $1.1 quadrillion, dwarfing Bitcoin’s $25 trillion - but about transaction count, a measure of network utility. Bitcoin is proving it can do the work of a global settlement layer without central coordination.
"Bitcoin surpassed Fedwire in transaction count back in 2016, and it's been pulling away ever since."
- Matthew Mežinskis, TFTC
The significance isn’t just technical. It’s structural. Bitcoin grows differently than any other asset. While stocks and gold compound at roughly constant rates, Bitcoin follows a power law: its growth rate slows over time as it scales. This makes it fundamentally more stable at maturity. Mežinskis notes that every 13% increase in Bitcoin’s lifespan correlates with a doubling in price - a predictable trend absent in exponential systems.
This dynamic pits two financial regimes against each other. Legacy markets are speeding up, with S&P 500 growth rates nearly doubling over the past century thanks to central bank intervention. Bitcoin, by contrast, is slowing into stability. Mežinskis projects these curves will collide between 2035 and 2040 - a moment he calls the 'essential singularity.' When infinite expansion hits finite reality, the system resets.
"The transition is not a software problem. It's a function of adoption and time."
- Matthew Mežinskis, TFTC
The math isn’t speculative. It’s already visible in the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio, now at the 10th percentile - meaning Bitcoin has been cheaper relative to gold than it is today only 10% of the time. For Mežinskis, that’s not a sign of weakness. It’s a signal of massive undervaluation in a system where Bitcoin, not gold, is the harder money.
