BUSINESS

Doomberg cites hidden oil glut as war fails to spike prices

Wednesday, May 13, 2026 · from 2 podcasts

2 SOURCESBTC Sessions Peter St Onge Podcast

A hidden oil glut, including China's three-million-barrel daily drawdown, buffers prices despite Middle East war risks.
The UAE's OPEC exit and a looming 40-seat GOP redistricting win signal a major shift in energy and political power.
Cheap US natural gas fuels an AI edge over China, widening a K-shaped economic divergence.

The mental model of oil scarcity is broken. Analysts expected prices to surge after Iran-Israel tensions threatened supply lines. Instead, prices struggle to hold $100 because the market is sitting on a secret tsunami of oil. Doomberg, speaking on BTC Sessions, argues China alone has reduced imports by 3.5 million barrels a day by burning through massive, unrecorded inventories. This hidden glut acts as a global shock absorber.

Political pressure adds a hard ceiling. Doomberg notes the US government views low energy prices as a non-negotiable requirement for the midterms. Betting on a war-driven price spike means betting against a political machine with tools to intervene. The volatility exists, but the disproportionate returns are gone.

"Even with the Strait of Hormuz at risk, prices struggle to maintain $100."
- Doomberg, BTC Sessions

The structural shift is bigger than inventories. The United Arab Emirates exited OPEC after 58 years, a move Peter St Onge says signals the cartel’s weakening grip. OPEC’s share of global exports has collapsed from nearly 90% in the 1970s to just over half today, undercut by American fracking. St Onge argues a full cartel collapse could send oil toward $40 a barrel, transferring billions from petro-states to Western consumers.

This energy realignment intersects with a political power grab. The Supreme Court ruling on gerrymandering has cleared Republicans to redraw congressional maps in states they control. St Onge cites analysis projecting an immediate 18-seat swing, with a long-term potential of flipping 30-40 House seats by 2028. This would create a durable Republican House majority irrespective of presidential elections.

Cheap energy is reshaping the economy, but not for everyone. North America produces 110 billion cubic feet of natural gas daily, sometimes at negative prices in regions like the Permian Basin. Doomberg frames this as a decisive, clean cost advantage for US AI infrastructure over China’s coal-powered data centers. This bounty fuels stock market highs while wage earners face record delinquencies, cementing a permanent K-shaped divergence.

"The K-shape is permanent as long as the capital class owns the natural gas and the chips it powers."
- Doomberg, BTC Sessions

Energy Markets Elections

UAE China Iran Israel Supreme Court

Source Intelligence

- Deep dive into what was said in the episodes

BTC Sessions

Lavish vs Doomberg: The Shocking Risks in Oil & MicroStrategy No One Else Sees • May 12

Doomberg argues oil prices remain subdued despite Middle East conflict due to a massive pre-war global supply glut and China reducing imports by three million barrels per day.
Doomberg claims the UAE's exit from OPEC was a condition for a US dollar swap line bailout, a move that strengthens a US-Israel-UAE bloc against other Gulf states aligning with China and Iran.
Lavish sees a K-shaped US economy where wage earners struggle with real inflation and record delinquencies, while the asset-owning class thrives and stocks hit all-time highs.
James Lavish dismisses the Michigan Consumer Sentiment index as unreliable, citing its survey of only 600 predominantly left-leaning individuals.
Doomberg states the US produces 110 billion cubic feet of natural gas daily, vastly exceeding pre-war Russian exports to Europe of 15 BCF/day, creating a cheap, dominant energy advantage.
Both analysts agree the fiscal and monetary response to any future crisis will involve massive money printing, debasing the dollar and driving assets like gold, silver, Bitcoin, and quality equities higher.
Doomberg forecasts oil could fall to $50 per barrel by year-end if the Middle East war ends, releasing trapped supply into a market already facing a demand-destroying glut.
James Lavish expects Bitcoin to challenge or exceed its all-time high by year-end, driven by macro monetary trends and conviction in its long-term store of value thesis.

Also from this episode: (3)

Society (1)

Doomberg cites data that the median American took zero flights last year, illustrating a stark divide between the capital and labor classes.

AI & Tech (1)

Doomberg views MicroStrategy's common stock as risky due to senior claims on Bitcoin by $15.2 billion in bonds and preferreds, arguing equity holders rely on perpetual share printing to service debt.

BTC Markets (1)

James Lavish is less concerned about MicroStrategy's debt, citing high conviction in Bitcoin's appreciation and manageable liabilities of $1B in 2028 and $3B in 2029 against a $66B Bitcoin treasury.

Macro Energy BTC Markets Markets Inflation

Peter St Onge Podcast

Ep 172 Weekly Roundup: GOP Could Redistrict 40 Seats • May 11

Peter St Onge says the Supreme Court ruling on gerrymandering could immediately shift 18 House seats to Republicans, with a long-term swing of 30-40 seats, moving the House from being Republican one-third of the time to almost half the time.
St Onge cites Axios analysis showing the ruling could yield six new Republican seats in Texas, four in Florida, two each in Alabama and Georgia, and flip four battleground seats, leaving at least six Southern states with no Democratic districts.
He argues in states Trump won against Kamala Harris, Democrats hold 69 congressional seats, but Republicans hold only 39 in states Harris won, creating a 30-seat disparity. 538 estimates a 40-seat swing if all states redraw aggressively.
St Onge states the United Arab Emirates left OPEC after 58 years, tired of OPEC's production caps that idled a third of its capacity, costing the nation $30-40 billion annually.
He claims OPEC's share of global oil exports fell from nearly 90% in the 1970s to just over half today, weakening its pricing power. A full cartel collapse could drop oil prices to $40-45 and gasoline to $2 per gallon.
He argues Argentina's President Javier Milei cut housing costs 70% in two years by eliminating rent control and deregulating leases, which tripled rental listings and brought 200,000 vacant units to market.
St Onge contrasts this with New York's 1.4% vacancy rate and 50,000 vacant apartments whose owners refuse to rent, despite 165,000 families waiting for housing. He notes St. Paul's rent control crashed building permits by 80%.

Also from this episode: (5)

Politics (5)

St Onge says 4.5 million people have lost SNAP benefits since last July due to tightened rules, but another 30 million recipients are either scamming the system or do not genuinely need assistance.
He cites USDA data showing 14,000 SNAP beneficiaries own luxury cars like Ferraris and Bentleys. St Onge claims fraud consumes roughly one in four SNAP dollars in states that report honestly.
St Onge notes SNAP enrollment exploded from 3 million in 1969 to 45 million when Obama left office. He argues 80% of current recipients may not need aid, based on Massachusetts's enrollment jumping from 3-12% of residents 25 years ago to 15.4% today.
He states the European Parliament's 'Democracy Shield' would create a censorship body that already oversees the takedown of 80 million posts monthly, with an independent study finding up to 99.7% of those were legal.
St Onge claims European authorities arrest over a thousand people per month for speech violations. He cites a UK think tank estimating thought crime policing consumes 650,000 hours annually while 90% of violent and sexual crimes go unsolved.

Elections Energy Macro Regulation

Source Intelligence

- Deep dive into what was said in the episodes

BTC Sessions

Lavish vs Doomberg: The Shocking Risks in Oil & MicroStrategy No One Else Sees • May 12

Doomberg argues oil prices remain subdued despite Middle East conflict due to a massive pre-war global supply glut and China reducing imports by three million barrels per day.
Doomberg claims the UAE's exit from OPEC was a condition for a US dollar swap line bailout, a move that strengthens a US-Israel-UAE bloc against other Gulf states aligning with China and Iran.
Lavish sees a K-shaped US economy where wage earners struggle with real inflation and record delinquencies, while the asset-owning class thrives and stocks hit all-time highs.
James Lavish dismisses the Michigan Consumer Sentiment index as unreliable, citing its survey of only 600 predominantly left-leaning individuals.
Doomberg states the US produces 110 billion cubic feet of natural gas daily, vastly exceeding pre-war Russian exports to Europe of 15 BCF/day, creating a cheap, dominant energy advantage.
Both analysts agree the fiscal and monetary response to any future crisis will involve massive money printing, debasing the dollar and driving assets like gold, silver, Bitcoin, and quality equities higher.
Doomberg forecasts oil could fall to $50 per barrel by year-end if the Middle East war ends, releasing trapped supply into a market already facing a demand-destroying glut.
James Lavish expects Bitcoin to challenge or exceed its all-time high by year-end, driven by macro monetary trends and conviction in its long-term store of value thesis.

Also from this episode: (3)

Society (1)

Doomberg cites data that the median American took zero flights last year, illustrating a stark divide between the capital and labor classes.

AI & Tech (1)

Doomberg views MicroStrategy's common stock as risky due to senior claims on Bitcoin by $15.2 billion in bonds and preferreds, arguing equity holders rely on perpetual share printing to service debt.

BTC Markets (1)

James Lavish is less concerned about MicroStrategy's debt, citing high conviction in Bitcoin's appreciation and manageable liabilities of $1B in 2028 and $3B in 2029 against a $66B Bitcoin treasury.

Macro Energy BTC Markets Markets Inflation

Peter St Onge Podcast

Ep 172 Weekly Roundup: GOP Could Redistrict 40 Seats • May 11

Peter St Onge says the Supreme Court ruling on gerrymandering could immediately shift 18 House seats to Republicans, with a long-term swing of 30-40 seats, moving the House from being Republican one-third of the time to almost half the time.
St Onge cites Axios analysis showing the ruling could yield six new Republican seats in Texas, four in Florida, two each in Alabama and Georgia, and flip four battleground seats, leaving at least six Southern states with no Democratic districts.
He argues in states Trump won against Kamala Harris, Democrats hold 69 congressional seats, but Republicans hold only 39 in states Harris won, creating a 30-seat disparity. 538 estimates a 40-seat swing if all states redraw aggressively.
St Onge states the United Arab Emirates left OPEC after 58 years, tired of OPEC's production caps that idled a third of its capacity, costing the nation $30-40 billion annually.
He claims OPEC's share of global oil exports fell from nearly 90% in the 1970s to just over half today, weakening its pricing power. A full cartel collapse could drop oil prices to $40-45 and gasoline to $2 per gallon.
He argues Argentina's President Javier Milei cut housing costs 70% in two years by eliminating rent control and deregulating leases, which tripled rental listings and brought 200,000 vacant units to market.
St Onge contrasts this with New York's 1.4% vacancy rate and 50,000 vacant apartments whose owners refuse to rent, despite 165,000 families waiting for housing. He notes St. Paul's rent control crashed building permits by 80%.

Also from this episode: (5)

Politics (5)

St Onge says 4.5 million people have lost SNAP benefits since last July due to tightened rules, but another 30 million recipients are either scamming the system or do not genuinely need assistance.
He cites USDA data showing 14,000 SNAP beneficiaries own luxury cars like Ferraris and Bentleys. St Onge claims fraud consumes roughly one in four SNAP dollars in states that report honestly.
St Onge notes SNAP enrollment exploded from 3 million in 1969 to 45 million when Obama left office. He argues 80% of current recipients may not need aid, based on Massachusetts's enrollment jumping from 3-12% of residents 25 years ago to 15.4% today.
He states the European Parliament's 'Democracy Shield' would create a censorship body that already oversees the takedown of 80 million posts monthly, with an independent study finding up to 99.7% of those were legal.
St Onge claims European authorities arrest over a thousand people per month for speech violations. He cites a UK think tank estimating thought crime policing consumes 650,000 hours annually while 90% of violent and sexual crimes go unsolved.

Elections Energy Macro Regulation

Doomberg cites hidden oil glut as war fails to spike prices

Source Intelligence

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Doomberg cites hidden oil glut as war fails to spike prices

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