Bitcoin's bottom takes months, not days
- Bitcoin survived a geopolitical shock without a crash, a sign the bear market is nearing its end.
- On-chain metrics show Bitcoin is deeply undervalued, but historical cycles suggest bottoms form over months, not weeks.
- A broader market crash could provide the final capitulation event needed to complete the cycle.
Bitcoin didn't crash when Iran attacked Israel. That's the signal the market is finally finding a floor.
According to Rational Root on What Bitcoin Did, the lack of a panic sell-off during a major geopolitical event is a positive indicator. The asset had already sold off significantly before the news, absorbing the shock. On-chain data, like the yearly RSI sitting at historic lows, confirms Bitcoin is undervalued.
Yet undervalued doesn't mean ready to rally. Rational Root argues the four-year cycle is still in play, and bottoms are processes, not points. They take months to form, often requiring a final wave of capitulation from weak hands.
That final shakeout could come from a traditional market collapse. A stock market crash, potentially triggered by election uncertainty, might be the event that flushes out the last sellers and sets the stage for the next bull run.
Rational Root, What Bitcoin Did:
- The fact that we didn't see a crash on that news is a positive sign.
- The market had already sold off before the news hit, so it was already priced in.