Iran's strait toll breaks american power as allies defect
Apr 4, 2026Saturday, April 4, 2026Summary from 7 contributing podcasts.
- Iran now controls global oil flow with a tiered toll in Chinese Yuan, unilaterally dismantling the US petrodollar system.
- Major US allies refuse Trump’s demands to fight Iran, prioritizing national economies over security guarantees.
- The failed war has cratered Trump’s approval to 33% as gas prices hit $4.80 and war funding guts Medicare.
- Analysts see a ground invasion as the next escalation trap, guaranteeing a prolonged, occupation-style war.
Donald Trump’s blitz on Iran has backfired, turning a geographic checkpoint into a weapon that has shattered American global dominance. By closing the Strait of Hormuz - a chokepoint for a third of the world’s seaborne oil - Iran has moved beyond sanctions defiance to wielding its own coercive economic power. As Saagar Enjeti detailed on Breaking Points, Tehran is implementing a tiered toll system, letting friendly Chinese tankers pass while charging US-aligned nations. This forces countries like Japan and South Korea to pay fees in Yuan or Tether, accelerating a deliberate decoupling from the dollar.
The immediate consequence is a historic fracture of the US alliance system. Trump’s demand for a military coalition to force the Strait open was met with refusal from the UK, France, and regional partners. As Tucker Carlson framed it, true power is the ability to restore order, not destroy. The U.S. failure to reopen the waterway is a public admission that its 80-year security guarantee is void. Nicolas Mulder argued this signals the end of unilateral U.S. economic warfare - sanctions have become “an on-ramp to war,” not an alternative.
Saagar Enjeti, Breaking Points:
- One of the reasons why allies are so mad at us right now is the currency problem.
- We're actually creating a major fiscal crisis in a lot of these countries.
Trump is now trapped between military humiliation and economic collapse. His approval has plummeted to 33% with gas at $4.80 a gallon, and he’s admitted funding the war will come from cuts to Medicare Advantage and childcare. Analysts across podcasts see his recent threats to “bomb Iran back to the stone age” - a failed Vietnam-era strategy - as a desperate market-moving tactic that only spiked oil past $109 a barrel. Markets no longer believe the posturing; they see a leader with no exit.
The off-ramp is vanishing. Greg Carlstrom noted on The Intelligence that the longer the standoff lasts, the more Trump is pushed toward a ground invasion to seize the Strait. But as Trita Parsi warned, seizing islands like Kharg would commit the US to a long-term occupation against a dug-in adversary, creating the “forever war” Trump once campaigned against. The internal calculus is dire: Jack Mallers argued that if the Strait stays closed, the U.S. economy, reliant on global energy flows, faces a fatal collapse regardless of battlefield wins.
In the end, the conflict is redrawing the global power map. Robert Pape declared Iran now controls double the oil influence Russia had in 2022, elevating it to a “new global center of power.” The strategic victory belongs to Tehran. By demonstrating that a regional power can hold the global economy hostage and face down American military might, Iran has successfully turned the Strait of Hormuz into the site where American unipolarity ended.
Tucker Carlson, The Tucker Carlson Show:
- The nation that forces the peace is the nation in charge.
- The country that forces order on the Persian Gulf that opens the Strait of Hormuz is the nation that runs the world by definition.
Source Intelligence
- Deep dive into what was said in the episodes
RABBIT HOLE RECAP #403: HAPPY EASTER • Apr 2
- Shares of Oracle rose 2% following the announcement of its major layoffs.
- WTI crude oil is trading above $103, potentially heading for its highest daily close since July 2022.
- Polymarket predicts a 71% chance of US boots on the ground in Iran by the end of the year.
- The buy now, pay later market is projected to exceed $500 billion in global transaction volume by 2025.
- 44% of Gen Z used buy now, pay later services in 2024, with the average user taking out 6.3 loans per year.
Also from this episode: (7)
BTC Markets (1)
- Iran is imposing yuan and crypto transaction fees on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, with USD tokens being used.
Enterprise (1)
- Oracle cut 20,000 to 30,000 jobs, citing a shift in capital towards AI data center spending.
Labor (1)
- Oracle’s headcount had previously swelled from 132,000 in 2021 to 164,000 in 2023.
Macro (1)
- Bitcoin is acting as a safe haven asset in a macro environment where central banks are devaluing their currencies.
Protocol (3)
- Researchers released Shrimps, a multi-device, post-quantum signature scheme that creates signatures 3x smaller than SLH-DSA.
- The primary burden with quantum-resistant signatures is their significant consumption of block space and increased transaction signing time.
- The theoretical advancement in breaking ECDSA is outpacing the development of the physical quantum computers needed to execute the algorithms.
Well, Poop | Bitcoin News • Apr 2
- President Trump pledged to hit Iran extremely hard over the next two to three weeks during a primetime address on the Middle East war.
- David Bennett notes that every statement from the administration about Iran pushes oil prices down temporarily, but they always bounce back.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a $296.18 million outflow last week, ending a four-week inflow streak.
- Jeff May says risk assets fell because Trump's speech gave no indication he planned to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
- On prediction market Myriad, users put a 74% chance crude oil will hit $120 a barrel.
- BlackRock filed an amended S1 for its iShares Bitcoin premium income ETF, which will trade under ticker BITA.
- Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas says the BlackRock fund has no set management fee, with his estimate at 38 basis points.
- BlackRock's proposed ETF will hold Bitcoin-linked assets like its spot ETF shares and write covered call options to generate income.
- David Bennett argues BlackRock's move into yield-focused Bitcoin products is a direct response to Michael Saylor's strategy.
- Interactive Brokers launched crypto trading for retail investors across the European Economic Area via its Irish subsidiary.
- The Interactive Brokers offering gives access to 11 digital assets within a single account through a partnership with XeroHash.
- West Texas Intermediate crude oil was at $111.39 per barrel, while TradingView's price oracle showed $102.66, indicating a significant arbitrage gap.
- The Solana-based Drift protocol was exploited, with losses estimated between $200 million and $270 million.
- One transfer in the Drift exploit involved 41.7 million JLP tokens worth about $155 million.
- The Drift exploit attacker began swapping stolen assets into USDC using Jupiter and bridging to Ethereum to buy ETH.
- Drift Protocol had total value locked above $550 million before the exploit.
Also from this episode: (16)
BTC Markets (2)
- Bitcoin, gold, and U.S. stocks declined after Trump's address, with Bitcoin's resilience surprising Bennett.
- Bitcoin's price was $66,810 with a market cap of $1.34 trillion and 20,010,332.41 coins in circulation.
Stablecoins (8)
- Fed Governor Michael Barr says stablecoin accessibility presents AML risks and regulators need tighter controls.
- Goldman Sachs data shows 66% of stablecoins are held by individuals in emerging markets.
- Nicholas Anthony suggests Barr's call for AML controls could involve deploying smart contracts for automatic flags and freezes.
- Intergovernmental agencies like FATF have called on stablecoin issuers to implement technical measures to block, freeze, and withdraw stablecoins.
- A recent Florida stablecoin bill includes transaction monitoring and a $10,000 reporting threshold.
- The U.S. Treasury released an 87-page proposed rulemaking for the Genius Act, opening a 60-day public comment period.
- Under the Genius Act, stablecoin issuers with less than $10 billion in supply can opt for state regulation if states meet federal standards.
- The Treasury proposal anchors the federal benchmark to rules issued by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.
Digital Sovereignty (1)
- David Bennett argues free and open source software is the true escape hatch from financial control, not just Bitcoin or Nostr.
Adoption (2)
- The Human Rights Foundation announced 1.5 billion satoshis in new grants through its Bitcoin Development Fund.
- HRF's grants support 26 projects across Bitcoin privacy, payments, development, community, freedom tech, and research.
Protocol (3)
- Blockstream researcher Jonas Nick presented Shrimps, a post-quantum signature scheme for Bitcoin that supports multi-device signing.
- Shrimps signatures are around 2.5 kilobytes, compared to SLH-DSA's 7.8 kilobytes, offering a compactness advantage.
- David Bennett notes Bitcoin developers have been working on quantum resistance for years, countering claims that no one is addressing the threat.
The Tucker Carlson Show
Tucker Carlson
America’s Place in the World Is About to Change in a Big Way. Tucker Responds. • Apr 2
- The Strait of Hormuz is the geographic source of Iran's power, not its military or nuclear program.
- Closing the Strait of Hormuz is asymmetrically easy using mines, drones, or boats with explosives.
- No outside military force can assure the safe passage of commerce through the Strait of Hormuz without Iran's consent.
- The United Arab Emirates has taken over 2,000 missile and drone attacks since the conflict began.
- Gulf monarchies have poured trillions in sovereign wealth investment into the United States, expecting a defense guarantee.
- President Trump told the world that countries dependent on Hormuz oil should take the lead in protecting the strait themselves.
- The real audience for Trump's statement on the strait was China, the only nation with potential economic leverage to reopen it.
- Asia uses about half the world's electricity but produces only two percent of its natural gas.
- Tucker Carlson argues China may let the Strait closure pain continue to weaken US allies in Asia and demonstrate American inability to project power.
- The unipolar moment of American global dominance is definitively over.
- Ultimate national power derives from prosperity rooted in control of food, water, and energy resources.
- The Western Hemisphere, including the US, Canada, and Brazil, is resource-rich in energy, water, and farmland.
- Canada has the fourth-largest oil reserves in the world and massive fresh water resources.
- American foreign policy should reorient from the Middle East to integrating and stabilizing the Western Hemisphere.
- Tucker Carlson states the war was instigated by Israel and has provided no material benefit to the United States.
Also from this episode: (5)
China (1)
- China is the largest trading partner with every Gulf country and with Iran.
Philosophy (1)
- True power is the ability to restore order, not the ability to destroy.
Religion (2)
- The current conflict has revealed the corruption of major American Protestant church leadership, which endorsed civilian casualties.
- Franklin Graham used the Book of Esther, which does not mention God, to counsel the president, avoiding the message of Jesus.
Politics (1)
- The end of the American empire and its supporting institutions is a prerequisite for a rebirth into something more truthful and constructive.
4/2/26: Oil Prices Spike As Markets Tank, Iran Predicts US Invasion As Key Negotiator Wounded • Apr 2
- Saagar and Krystal indicate Trump's major speech was poorly received by markets and commentators.
- The UAE desires to join military action directly, amidst broader 'freakout' among Gulf Arab states over Iranian regional damage.
- Saagar notes indicators suggesting a potential collapse of the AI market bubble.
- Krystal asserts Trump's speech was an amalgamation of Truth Social posts lacking new substance, reflecting his strategic impasse.
- Trump announced combat operations would resume in the Middle East 'over the next two to three weeks'.
- Trump threatened to hit all Iranian electric generating plants simultaneously if no deal is made, while previously sparing oil targets to allow for Iranian survival.
- Krystal argues that bombing Iran's energy infrastructure would lead to Iranian retaliation on Gulf states and a severe energy crisis.
- Iran reportedly controls the Straits of Hormuz and is charging tolls, demanding payment in 'wand and or cryptocurrency', blocking US allies and Gulf nations.
- Following Trump's speech, S&P futures dropped 1.67%, and both WTI and Brent crude oil surged to $109 per barrel.
- The price equalization between Brent and WTI crude, eliminating a historical $10/barrel spread, reflects global oil shortage concerns.
- A month's worth of floating oil storage has been depleted, signaling an imminent real oil shortage and escalating gas prices.
- Jet fuel in Europe and Singapore has reached $200 a barrel, with diesel prices possibly hitting $6 a gallon.
- Trump blamed rising US gasoline prices entirely on Iran's 'deranged terror attacks' against commercial oil tankers, using it as proof against Iran possessing nuclear weapons.
- Saagar contends Trump's speech was primarily to calm markets and manage bond yields, rather than inform the public.
- Trump compared the 32-day conflict to longer historical wars like World War I (1 year, 7 months, 5 days) and Vietnam (19 years, 5 months, 29 days), claiming Iran is 'eviscerated'.
- Krystal notes the Pentagon is doubling its fleet of A-10 Warthog attack planes in the Middle East, indicating preparation for a ground invasion requiring close air support.
- The phrase 'bomb them back to the Stone Ages', used by Trump, was coined by General Curtis LeMay in 1965 regarding North Vietnam, a strategy that failed there.
- If the US bombs Iran, Krystal predicts Iran will retaliate against Gulf nations, whose poorly defended desalination plants are critical, with Saudi Arabia reportedly low on interceptors.
- Iran is less reliant on desalination than Gulf countries, potentially having less than two weeks of water if plants are targeted.
- Trump is unwilling to accept the 'humiliation' of walking away from the conflict, which would leave Iran with a strategic victory by controlling the Strait of Hormuz.
- The national average gas price is $4.80, with predictions of reaching all-time highs soon.
- Trump's proposed $1.5 trillion defense budget and an additional $200 billion supplemental for the conflict contrast with Iran's roughly $10 billion annual military budget.
- Saagar claims Trump rejected a 'generous deal' offered by Omani intermediaries, choosing war instead.
- Trita Parsi notes Trump's speech, a summary of social media posts, failed to calm markets due to its lack of a clear plan.
- Iranians believe Trump's speech was meant to confuse, anticipating a US ground invasion and preparing for an attack during the Easter holiday.
- Trita Parsi states Iran's President issued a letter to America, blaming the conflict on Israel, not the American people.
- Iranian Parliament Speaker Kolibov, who lost a brother in the Iraq-Iran war and volunteered at 18, declared Iranians are ready to fight to the last for their homeland.
- Kamal Karatzi, Iran's former foreign minister, was seriously wounded and his wife killed in US/Israeli strikes while overseeing talks with Pakistan.
- Trita Parsi believes Israel, possibly with US intelligence, assassinated Karatzi, consistent with a pattern of eliminating Iranian officials capable of building consensus for a deal.
- Trita Parsi suggests Trump's statements minimizing the Strait of Hormuz's importance to the US may render the US position irrelevant, allowing Iran to control and charge transit fees.
- Trita Parsi notes the warfare increasingly exhibits an 'Israeli character', involving deliberate bombing of civilian infrastructure like universities and a 100-year-old medical research institute.
- Trita Parsi argues the US is complicit in this Israeli form of warfare, with Trump, lacking a plan, following Israel's lead to destroy Iran's infrastructure and eliminate it as a geopolitical player.
- Saagar states the US was complicit in the 'genocide in Gaza' under both the Biden and Trump administrations.
- Trita Parsi believes the US is adopting Israel's 'mow the lawn' approach, with Trump embracing repeated bombings of Iran, a strategy past presidents avoided due to its potential for eternal warfare.
- Trita Parsi states predicting outcomes is impossible due to a perceived lack of rationality in the White House.
- Trita Parsi indicates a ground invasion would be 'utterly irrational' and 'suicidal' for Trump's presidency, yet Iranians are preparing for it, expecting to inflict significant American casualties.
Also from this episode: (11)
Politics (8)
- Saagar claims independent media played a massive role in the recent election.
- Saagar criticizes the war as undemocratic, noting a lack of Congressional vote, public debate, or transparent information.
- Saagar says Trump admitted in a leaked video that he initially believed the war would conclude in three days.
- In a leaked video from a White House Easter lunch, Trump stated the government's purpose is 'military protection', not social programs like daycare, Medicare, or Medicaid.
- Trump suggested states should fund social programs by raising taxes, allowing the federal government to focus solely on military spending.
- Krystal notes the current war's approval rating is 26%, making Trump's comments about foregoing social programs for military spending politically vulnerable.
- Saagar states the administration plans to cut healthcare programs, such as Medicare Advantage, to fund the war.
- Iran may use transit fees from the Strait of Hormuz to fund reconstruction, similar to Denmark's 400-year history of charging fees for the Øresund Strait.
Business (2)
- Breaking Points seeks 10,000 more YouTube subscribers to reach its two million goal.
- Saagar highlights economic pain and backlash against current events is evident in Europe.
History (1)
- Krystal draws parallels between the current war's impact on domestic spending and inflation, and the Vietnam War's role in cutting the Apollo space program in the 1970s.
4/2/26: US Allies Turn On Trump, Israel Takes Massive Fire, Iran War Ending US Dominance, AI Bubble • Apr 2
- Donald Trump told global allies they should militarily 'go to the Strait and just take it' to reopen Hormuz, arguing Iran is decimated.
- French President Macron stated there is no military solution to the Straits of Hormuz and it will be resolved diplomatically.
- South Korea and Japan face currency problems and economic crisis due to high crude prices, forcing their governments to plead for energy conservation.
- The UK's Keir Starmer assembled 35 nations to push for diplomatic solutions and post-conflict maritime security in the Gulf, but refuses to join the war.
- The Trump administration has already backed off sanctions on Iranian and Russian oil due to domestic political pressure over high prices.
- Germany's growth forecast has been cut due to price shocks from the Iran war, according to the Washington Post.
- Foreign central banks are increasingly selling US treasuries, driving up bond yields and making US debt more expensive to service.
- Nicholas Mulder argues US dominance in economic warfare is over because sanctions drive targets like Iran, Russia, and China closer together.
- Iran is implementing a three-tiered toll system for the Strait of Hormuz: free passage for allies, tolls for neutrals, and denial for hostile states.
- Russia's economy survived Western sanctions because China and India continued buying its oil, showing Asian alignment is critical for sanction effectiveness.
- High global energy prices threaten the AI boom by increasing data center power costs and shrinking the consumer spending that fuels the broader economy.
- Professor Robert Pape argued NATO is already effectively dead as a functional alliance due to the Iran war.
Also from this episode: (5)
Banking (1)
- High crude prices force Asian nations to sell their currencies for dollars, devaluing currencies like the Indian rupee which hit a 14-year low.
Trade (1)
- A 'shadow fleet' of tankers and an offshore financial network now facilitates oil trade outside the reach of US sanctions.
AI & Tech (3)
- Half of US data centers planned for 2026 are expected to be delayed or canceled due to shortages of electrical equipment imported from China.
- Anthropic accidentally leaked 500,000 lines of source code, exposing unreleased product plans in a major security breach.
- OpenAI is shutting down its Sora video generation service in April, reversing a core promise of its product roadmap.
4/1/26: Iran Bombs Bahrain Amazon, US Allies Warn Of Disaster, Robert Pape On Iran Gaining Power, Mass Layoffs • Apr 1
- Iran's IRGC struck Amazon Web Services servers in Bahrain after threatening U.S. tech companies involved in assassination programs.
- Robert Pape argues Iran is becoming a new global power center by controlling over 20% of the world's oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Donald Trump told Reuters his evening address will express 'disgust with NATO' and he is 'absolutely considering' withdrawing U.S. forces.
- Robert Pape states NATO is effectively dead because European countries will no longer follow orders from American generals.
- The IRGC published a list of 18 U.S. technology and defense companies it considers legitimate targets, including Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, and JPMorgan.
- UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer warned the Iran war will affect Britain's future and urged de-escalation and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
- Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese cut fuel taxes and urged citizens to use public transport to conserve reserves amid global supply disruptions.
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez committed to voting against all arms funding for Israel, including defensive systems like Iron Dome.
- Robert Pape contends markets are wrong to assume ending the war will reverse Iran's new global power, as Tehran won't voluntarily relinquish control.
- The U.S. State Department directed embassies to coordinate with Pentagon psyops units to downvote community notes criticizing official posts on Twitter.
- A global helium shortage is emerging, threatening AI development, MRI machines, and advanced cooling technology.
- The U.S. hiring rate in February 2023 fell to the same level as April 2020, indicating a severe collapse in job openings.
- The USS George H.W. Bush carrier group deployed to relieve the damaged USS Gerald R. Ford, which was taken out by a suspected sabotage or strike.
- The United Arab Emirates is pushing to join the war against Iran, having long sought U.S. military action against Tehran.
- Robert Pape identifies three factions forming in the Gulf: Iraq bandwagoning with Iran, Oman and Qatar neutral, and Saudi Arabia and the UAE alarmed.
- Pakistan is negotiating security deals and serving as a mediator, signaling a growing anti-American coalition in the region.
Also from this episode: (3)
Labor (1)
- Oracle laid off 30,000 employees via a 6 a.m. email, with job cuts linked to Gulf state financing troubles and being on the IRGC target list.
Trade (1)
- Fertilizer shortages are imminent as China halts exports and shipments through the Strait of Hormuz stop, threatening global food production.
Media (1)
- Breaking Points is close to 2 million YouTube subscribers and relies on premium members to fund its independent journalism.
3/31/26: Trump Floats Iran Surrender, Trump Rock Bottom Polls, Gas Prices Spike • Mar 31
- Donald Trump's Truth Social post suggests he's willing to end the Iran war without reopening the Strait of Hormuz, telling allies to 'go get your own oil.'
- Saagar argues that if the US leaves the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian control, it would constitute a strategic surrender and a fundamental rewriting of the US security guarantee in the Middle East.
- Krystal and Saagar believe Trump's potential withdrawal from the Iran war is driven by tanking poll numbers, bond market issues, and pressure from high oil and stock market volatility.
- Iran's parliament passed a bill to establish a toll system for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, banning US and Israeli vessels and asserting sovereignty.
- Rory Johnston says the US average gas price has officially exceeded $4 a gallon, a significant milestone resulting from the Iran war disruption.
- Rory Johnston forecasts that if Iran retains control of the strait, oil prices will remain structurally high, setting the stage for perennial future crises.
- Johnston states that a proposed $2 million toll per tanker passage through the Strait of Hormuz would add roughly $1 to the cost of a barrel of oil.
- An airstrike with bunker-busting bombs hit an Iranian ammunition depot in Isfahan near nuclear facilities just yesterday, indicating the war continues.
- Italy and Spain have both refused to allow US military planes to land at their bases or grant flyover rights, signaling major allied dissent.
- Krystal notes the White House is considering cutting Medicare Advantage to fund the $200 billion cost of the Iran war, which would be politically damaging.
- Rory Johnston explains that a US ban on diesel exports would initially lower domestic prices but soon force refinery shutdowns, creating gasoline scarcity.
- Johnston describes an 'air pocket' in global oil supply, where the loss of tankers from the Gulf is reaching Asia this week, Europe next week, and North America in two weeks.
- Rory Johnston predicts the coming driving season will be the most expensive since 2022, with potential for all-time high US diesel and pump prices if the crisis continues.
- Saagar argues the Iran war has exposed critical weaknesses in the US defense industrial base, which is ill-suited for modern asymmetric warfare dominated by drones.
- The hosts argue that a US withdrawal would empower a stronger Iran-China-Russia alliance, with China poised to enrich Tehran through a parallel banking system.
Also from this episode: (3)
Elections (3)
- A UGov poll shows Trump's approval rating at 33% with 62% disapproval, which Krystal calls some of the worst numbers of his presidency.
- Nate Silver's poll average shows Trump's approval dipping under 40%, with a consistent downward trajectory since the Iran war began.
- Krystal points out that every major dip in Trump's poll numbers stems from his own policy choices, not external crises, making the damage more politically potent.
3/30/26: Iran Blows Up US Aircraft, Trump Floats Ground Invasion • Mar 30
- Trump threatened to destroy Iranian electric plants, oil wells, and desalination facilities via ultimatum.
- Saagar Enjeti calls Trump's claim of negotiating with a 'more reasonable regime' a fantasy to calm oil markets and stock futures.
- Enjeti says there is no scenario where the Strait of Hormuz reopens within a week, and no deal is close.
- The Iranian figure Trump identified as a partner, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, remains publicly hardline against U.S. demands.
- Iranian missile strikes doubled in a 24-hour period, inflicting strategic damage on U.S. assets.
- Trump has twice extended his invasion deadline, moving from 48 hours to ten days in search of a diplomatic breakthrough.
- Krystal Ball argues Trump's Truth Social posts are a delaying tactic to market-manipulate and buy time.
- Ball sees zero indication of any softening from the new Iranian leadership following recent assassinations.
- The Strait of Hormuz remains closed to tankers not paying Iran directly in Chinese yuan, defying Trump's threats.
The Jack Mallers Show
Jack Mallers
They're Lying to You. Again. Stay Humble & Stack Sats. • Mar 31
- Jack Mallers believes the US is solely reliant on Iran, Russia, China, and global supply chains for energy and goods.
- Mallers argues every day the Strait of Hormuz remains closed increases the risk of mass casualties and a sovereign debt crisis.
- Mallers states that the 10-year US Treasury yield rose from below 4% to 4.4% after the Middle East conflict began.
- Mallers cites Goldman Sachs data showing the US economy will be twice as negatively affected as China's by the oil supply shock.
- Mallers claims the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at its lowest level since the 1970s or 1980s.
- Mallers notes that foreign ownership of US Treasuries is at its lowest percentage in 30 years.
Also from this episode: (10)
Fed (2)
- Mallers says the US is a debtor nation living in perpetual debt and is losing control of its treasury market.
- Mallers says the US deficit-to-GDP ratio is almost 6%, far above the 50-year average of 3.8%.
BTC Markets (3)
- Mallers states Bitcoin's price reflects a true, unmanipulated sentiment about the state of the world.
- Mallers believes gold will initially absorb more capital than Bitcoin during a dollar failure due to its larger existing market cap.
- Mallers states Bitcoin is better money than gold because it is scarcer, easier to store, verify, transport, and can be improved via software.
Protocol (3)
- Mallers believes Bitcoin's difficulty adjustment is Satoshi Nakamoto's most genius insight, ensuring fixed issuance and network stability.
- Mallers contends that Bitcoin's 10-minute block time is a deliberate design to account for the speed of light and achieve global consensus.
- Mallers claims Bitcoin's scaling occurs in the unit's price and through layered solutions, not by inflating base layer throughput.
Payments (1)
- Mallers argues Bitcoin hasn't been adopted for payments because merchants foot the bill for credit card rewards, creating a monopolistic, bribed system.
Adoption (1)
- Mallers says a single Strike user has made 48,732 individual Bitcoin purchases on the platform.
The bog of war: week five begins • Mar 30
- The war between Iran and the U.S./Israel has entered its fifth week with little prospect of a negotiated end.
- Yemen's Houthi militia, aligned with Iran, fired ballistic missiles at southern Israel over the weekend.
- Greg Carlstrom says Tehran believes it has the upper hand, having sustained drone attacks and gained de facto control of the Strait of Hormuz.
- Iran is exporting more oil and making more money from oil exports now than before the war began.
- The current oil market shortfall is 10 million barrels per day, which could double if Houthis resume attacks on Red Sea shipping.
- Greg Carlstrom says Iran's core demand is a guarantee against future American or Israeli attacks.
- Iran also demands reparations, closure of U.S. bases, and the right to charge fees for Strait of Hormuz passage.
- The U.S. Pentagon has already deployed 7,000 Marines and paratroopers to the region, with talk of another 10,000 troops.
- A likely U.S. ground operation could involve seizing islands at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz to defend shipping.
- Greg Carlstrom says a U.S. ground invasion of Iran is becoming quite likely.
- In 1898, America drove Spain out of Cuba and Puerto Rico and took the Philippines and Guam, becoming a colonial power with 10 million subjects.
Also from this episode: (9)
History (5)
- By the 1890s, the United States had overtaken Britain as the world's leading industrial power.
- The 1886 Haymarket Square protest in Chicago, where a bomb was thrown at police, killed at least 11 people and sparked anti-labor hysteria.
- Congress opened America's doors to immigrants during the Civil War but by 1924 had virtually barred migrants from outside the Americas.
- In the 1896 Plessy v. Ferguson case, the Supreme Court ruled against Homer Plessy, reinforcing segregation.
- President Theodore Roosevelt clashed with big business as a 'trustbuster' but proved weak during the 1907 financial crisis.
Media (4)
- 2026 is being called the 'Year of Sci-Fi' with more than 20 big genre titles releasing, including films from Spielberg and new Dune and Star Wars entries.
- The film Project Hail Mary earned $80 million at the North American box office on its opening weekend.
- Alexandra Sewicz Bass says Project Hail Mary balances nihilism and hope, a theme appealing to current audiences.
- The Economist's data analysis shows films are getting longer, driven by auteurs and audience willingness for character development.
Trump Says He’s Ready for Diplomacy. Iran? Not So Much. • Mar 30
- The US has conducted over 11,000 strikes in Iran but failed to cause regime collapse, forcing a strategic pivot toward diplomacy, David Sanger reports.
- Trump is seeking a diplomatic off-ramp primarily to prevent global economic paralysis, as the war has locked up the Strait of Hormuz and spooked markets.
- A key US demand is for Iran to limit its missile range to prevent it from reaching Israel, according to a two-page proposal shared on The Daily.
- In exchange for sanctions relief, the US demands Iran scrap all nuclear enrichment, a condition Iran has so far ignored in its counter-proposal.
- Iran's counter-proposal demands compensation for infrastructure damage and asserts total sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, ignoring nuclear terms.
- Trump appointed VP JD Vance to lead talks, signaling seriousness to Iran and reassuring the MAGA base, as Vance was the administration's most prominent war skeptic.
- A strategic friction exists: the US seeks a deal to stabilize markets, while Israel is using the diplomatic window to strike Iranian nuclear sites.
- Iran views US diplomatic outreach as a tactical cover for military strikes, a perception reinforced by the US sending more Marines to the region.
- David Sanger argues both US and Iranian claims of productive talks are false, with each side fibbing to save face and project strength domestically.