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POLITICS

Alberta separatists plan 2026 secession vote after collecting 300,000 signatures

Friday, May 22, 2026 · from 3 podcasts
  • Alberta separatists gathered double the signatures needed for a 2026 referendum to break from Canada.
  • The oil-rich province subsidizes the rest of Canada but faces federal carbon taxes and speech laws.
  • Statehood in the US offers a path out, but would trigger a major political standoff in Washington.

The movement to split Alberta from Canada has moved from bumper stickers to a formal referendum drive. On the Peter St Onge Podcast, the host reported organizers collected over 300,000 signatures - far exceeding the threshold - to trigger a vote on independence, now scheduled for October. The core grievance is economic: Alberta sits on roughly 160 billion barrels of oil but sends an estimated $15,000 per household annually to the rest of Canada through federal equalization payments.

Friction with Ottawa over carbon taxes and federal hate speech prosecutions has boiled over. St Onge cited cases like a pastor sentenced to house arrest for criticizing transgender events as examples of the cultural-political divide. The 2022 trucker protests and the subsequent freezing of bank accounts acted as a final catalyst, transforming long-simmering discontent into organized secession.

"Alberta funds the rest of Canada... while federal policies constrain its oil exports."

- Peter St Onge, Peter St Onge Podcast

For an independent Alberta, the most likely next step is seeking to become the 51st U.S. state. Prediction markets give that outcome a 4-in-5 chance if secession succeeds. The massive economic upside is clear: leveraging Texas-style energy exports without federal regulatory constraints. But statehood is a political minefield. Democrats would likely block admitting a new red state unless it were bundled with statehood for Puerto Rico or Washington, D.C., setting up a constitutional clash.

The breakaway effort unfolds as another Western alliance shows severe stress. On Breaking Points, Saagar Enjeti detailed how the Iran war has cracked Donald Trump’s MAGA base, with core supporters using words like “betrayed” over $5 gas and draft fears. It’s a reminder that populist coalitions fracture when economic pain hits home.

"When diehard supporters start using the word 'abandoned,' the populist bond that defines the Republican party is at risk of snapping."

- Krystal Ball, Breaking Points

Alberta’s separatists are betting that their own populist bond with Ottawa has already snapped. The question is whether a province that views itself as an economic engine shackled by a distant capital can successfully engineer a divorce - and whether the United States is willing to pick up the pieces.

Source Intelligence

- Deep dive into what was said in the episodes

#2502 - David PaulidesMay 20

Also from this episode: (13)

Culture (3)

  • David Paulides says National Park Rangers approached him at Yosemite in the 1990s, claiming too many people were going missing and all search efforts ceased within 10-15 days. The rangers could not obtain reports via Freedom of Information Act requests against their own agency.
  • Paulides cites the 1978 disappearance of 14-year-old Stacey Evers in Yosemite, a case involving a massive search where only her camera lens cap was found. He filed FOIA requests for the case 40 years later, but a special agent denied him, citing an ongoing criminal investigation exemption.
  • Paulides references the Skinwalker Ranch 'hitchhiker effect,' where entities from the ranch purportedly followed investigators home, and notes a similar effect is reported by some Bigfoot researchers, with phenomena occurring near their homes.

Politics (1)

  • Paulides claims the Department of the Interior told him it would cost $1.4 million to compile a list of missing persons across the entire National Park System, and $34,000 for a list from Yosemite alone. He compiled his own list, after which Yosemite released an official missing persons list.

Science (5)

  • Paulides outlines a pattern in missing persons cases: disappearances almost always occur when a person is alone, professional trackers and canines consistently fail to find any scent or tracks, and bodies are often later found in areas already thoroughly searched.
  • Paulides recounts the case of a Toronto fireman who went missing on a New York ski trip and woke up disoriented in a truck traveling from Reno to Sacramento, still wearing his ski clothes, with no memory of how he got there.
  • Paulides claims that Melba Ketchum's DNA study of purported Sasquatch hair samples found maternal DNA tracing to the Middle East 12-15,000 years ago, but the paternal DNA did not match anything in GenBank. The study was criticized for lacking peer review and potential contamination.
  • Rogan discusses the hallucinogenic mushroom *Lanmaoa asiatica*, consumed in Yunnan, China, which consistently causes visions of small, elf-like figures, suggesting such compounds might allow perception of entities normally invisible.
  • Rogan posits that DMT, a potent psychedelic produced by the human brain and found in plants, may not cause hallucinations but instead open a perceptual gateway to entities or dimensions that exist independently of the drug.

Society (4)

  • Paulides cites the 1975 Travis Walton abduction case as credible, noting multiple witnesses, passed polygraph tests, and Walton's return days later unharmed but with a story of being taken aboard a craft.
  • Paulides describes the 1995 case of hunter Carl in Wyoming's Medicine Bow National Forest, who claimed to be abducted alongside an elk by telepathic entities after his bullet deformed and dropped a few feet from his gun. Post-abduction, his old tuberculosis scars were gone and his truck was found in impassable terrain.
  • Paulides says a former Navajo Ranger assigned to investigate Bigfoot and UFOs found a consistent link between the two phenomena, noting Bigfoot tracks were single-file, deeply imprinted, and appeared in conjunction with UFO sightings.
  • Paulides cites a late 1800s newspaper account of a cattle rancher who was told by a Native American chief about 'hairy moon' entities that descended in a bright object, stayed in the mountains, and were fed by the tribe.

5/19/26: Trump Calls Off Iran Attack After Military Warning, MAGA Mom Says Trump Abandoned HerMay 19

  • Despite a temporary reprieve, Krystal Ball states the fundamental dynamics of the Iran conflict remain unstable, with the global economy unable to withstand the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Iran launched a new portal for Bitcoin transactions on the Strait of Hormuz with an associated toll system, a potential method to circumvent international sanctions.
  • US gas prices are $4.53 per gallon and diesel at $5.65 per gallon, an 80% increase since the Iran war began, reflecting the conflict's impact on energy markets.
  • Secretary Scott Bessett issued a temporary 30-day license allowing vulnerable nations to access Russian oil stranded at sea, which Krystal Ball interprets as an acknowledgment of US economic vulnerability due to the Iran blockade.
  • The Iran war has inadvertently benefited Russia by increasing its oil profits, which helps stabilize its economy and war effort in Ukraine, according to Krystal Ball and Saagar Enjeti.
  • A New York Times/Siena poll shows Trump's approval rating at a record low 37%, a 3-point decline, with significant disapproval on key issues like the economy, cost of living, and the Iran war.
  • The New York Times/Siena poll reveals 64% of Americans believe the Iran war was the wrong decision, with notable disapproval among Independents (73%) and 22% of Republicans.
  • CNN's Harry Enten reports 79% of Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of gas prices, marking the highest disapproval for any president on this issue in available polling data.
  • The congressional generic ballot shows Democrats leading by 11 points nationally, expanding to 14 points among likely voters, suggesting a potential landslide in upcoming elections.
Also from this episode: (8)

War (2)

  • Donald Trump claimed he postponed a planned military attack on Iran, scheduled for the following day, at the request of the Emir of Qatar, citing serious negotiations for a deal including no nuclear weapons for Iran.
  • Saagar Enjeti and Krystal Ball suggest Trump's claim about Gulf allies requesting the postponement is false, asserting military warnings about Iran's strengthened defenses were the actual reason for halting the attack.

Media (2)

  • A New York Times report indicates Iran utilized a months-long ceasefire to fortify defenses, digging out ballistic missile sites from underground caves and adjusting tactics, leading to increased capability against US air assets.
  • Krystal Ball notes that a previous incident involving a pilot rescue, after US aircraft were over Iranian territory, marked the end of active hostilities and served as a 'wake up call' for Trump regarding further military escalation.

Politics (2)

  • Janet, a 68-year-old Trump supporter from Long Island, expressed feeling 'abandoned' and 'betrayed' by Trump due to high taxes and her son's potential draft into the Iran war.
  • Saagar Enjeti explains that Republican support for Israel (66%) is predominantly generational, with older voters maintaining traditional views while younger Republicans show less support, often due to concerns about foreign influence in US policy.

Science (1)

  • The World Food Program warns that 43 million people could face acute hunger due to a combination of the Iran war, extreme weather, and high fertilizer costs, with US wheat yields projected to be the lowest since the early 1970s.

Middle East (1)

  • A New York Times/Siena poll shows Americans now sympathize more with Palestinians (37%) than Israel (35%), a significant shift, especially among Democrats (57% Palestinian sympathy) and Independents (44%).

Ep 173 Weekly Roundup: Alberta May Break Away From CanadaMay 18

  • Peter St Onge notes Alberta holds roughly 160 billion barrels of oil reserves, which is about three times the total reserves of the United States and would rank as the world's fourth largest.
  • In UK local elections, Nigel Farage's Reform Party surged from 2 to 1,453 seats, while the ruling Labour and Conservative parties together won only one-third of seats.
  • St Onge argues GOP redistricting efforts could swing 17-19 House seats in the midterms and up to 30 long-term, fundamentally improving Republican odds of controlling the House.
Also from this episode: (8)

Politics (4)

  • Alberta separatists collected over 300,000 signatures for a referendum to leave Canada, far exceeding the threshold required to trigger a vote scheduled for October.
  • St Onge argues Alberta funds the rest of Canada through equalization payments, sending roughly $15,000 per household annually, while federal policies constrain its oil exports.
  • St Onge cites Canadian hate speech prosecutions, including a former school trustee fined $750,000 and a pastor sentenced to 12 months house arrest for criticism of transgenderism and drag queen events.
  • A UN-linked group priced reparations for colonialism and systemic racism at $131 trillion, with the US share at $26 trillion and Britain's at $24 trillion.

Business (2)

  • The US added 115,000 jobs in April, beating expectations of 65,000, with blue-collar sectors gaining 84,000 jobs while white-collar and federal jobs declined.
  • St Onge interprets the jobs report as evidence of a blue-collar renaissance, driven by factory onshoring, deportations, and AI creating physical construction jobs rather than eliminating them.

AI & Tech (1)

  • Citing PwC and Challenger Grey, St Onge claims AI data center construction will create 4.7 million jobs, with 500,000 permanent maintenance roles, offsetting an estimated 20,000 AI-related layoffs.

History (1)

  • St Onge cites a 2001 paper by Daron Acemoglu to argue colonialism brought prosperity, noting Hong Kong was 40 times richer than China when Britain left and Guam is 10 times richer than the Philippines.