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Trump abandons Iran war goals for deal to lower gas prices

Sunday, May 31, 2026 · from 4 podcasts, 6 episodes
Ezra Klein ShowBreaking PointsThe DailyNo Agenda
  • Trump's deal only opens the Strait of Hormuz, leaving Iran's nuclear program intact.
  • Hawkish allies call it surrender, but $4.38 gas prices threaten Republican midterms.
  • The shift came after a failed secret U.S. military mission caused massive aircraft losses.

Donald Trump is reversing his entire Iran war strategy for a deal to reopen oil shipping lanes. The potential agreement, described as a 60-day memorandum of understanding, ignores his original goal of dismantling Iran's nuclear capability. Instead, it focuses on getting oil flowing again to lower domestic gas prices, which have hit $3.99 per gallon in Texas.

"Trump is now using regional leaders in Pakistan, Qatar, and Oman as a diplomatic shield, telling hawks that the entire Middle East is demanding this pivot to avoid a total regional collapse."

- Trita Parsi, Breaking Points

The pivot stems from military failure. According to analyst Trita Parsi, a secret U.S. operation near Isfahan to target nuclear facilities resulted in the highest loss of carrier aircraft since Vietnam. That humiliation, coupled with China refusing to pressure Iran and instead securing its own shipping deals, left Trump with no viable military reset button. Professor John Mearsheimer argues on Breaking Points that the war has already destroyed U.S. credibility with Gulf allies, who now see American bases as vulnerable.

Republican hawks are in a state of public panic. Senator Lindsey Graham and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo blast the move as a repeat of the Obama-era playbook and a reward for Iranian terrorism. Trump is attempting to mute Israeli criticism by boasting about his popularity there and joking he could run for Prime Minister, effectively daring the Israeli right to challenge him. On The Daily, officials described the weekend odds as 50-50 between restarting the war or progressing toward a deal.

"The potential deal focuses on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, not resolving Iran's nuclear program or missile capabilities. David Sanger describes it as a memorandum of understanding that merely restores the pre-war status quo."

- The Daily

The economic pressure is undeniable. The blockade is the largest disruption of energy supply in modern history. On No Agenda, Adam Curry reported that the squeeze is financial, driven by skyrocketing Lloyd's of London insurance rates, not just a naval blockade. Iran is countering with a digital insurance platform settled in Bitcoin to collect tolls outside Western banking, though the U.S. Treasury claims to have frozen over $300 million in Iranian crypto. For Trump, the midterm calculus is clear: the war's success is measured at the pump, not the battlefield.

U.S. airstrikes on Iranian targets Monday, even as diplomats talked peace, underscore the fragility. The Pentagon labeled them defensive actions against missile sites and mine-laying boats. The administration is willing to give mediators like Qatar more time, but the window for a clean exit is closing. If diplomacy fails, the conflict likely returns to full-scale war.

#War#Iran#Elections
PentagonBitcoinChinaIranStrait of HormuzWHO

Source Intelligence

- Deep dive into what was said in the episodes

The Ezra Klein Show
The Ezra Klein Show

Does Trump Want to Lose the Midterms? • May 29

  • Blitzer says the intervention’s rationale was a confluence of factional interests: Rubio’s ideological regime-change agenda, Trump’s oil fixation, and Miller’s desire to exploit migration for broader domestic power grabs.
  • The administration’s initial kinetic action was bombing cocaine-smuggling boats, which Blitzer calls a cynical spectacle. He notes the US fentanyl crisis originates in China and Mexico, not the Caribbean routes targeted.
  • Blitzer outlines catastrophic risks: a power vacuum unleashing armed collectivos and Colombian rebels, or a harder-line regime that further crushes the opposition, which is now discredited for relying on US intervention.
  • He contrasts Trump’s first-term skepticism of boots-on-the-ground with his second-term aggression, attributing the shift to the absence of establishment checks like a resistant Defense Department.
  • Blitzer draws a parallel to Iraq, where multiple weak rationales - humanitarian, WMDs, oil, democracy-exporting - accumulated to push a needless war, noting Venezuela intervention similarly lacks a single compelling national interest.
Also from this episode: (6)

Politics (3)

  • Jonathan Blitzer says the Trump administration captured Nicolás Maduro on January 3rd, 2025, with no congressional authorization, a move he calls a profound gamble and a violation of international law.
  • Blitzer describes Maduro as a middling successor to Hugo Chávez who consolidated power brutally, overseeing hyperinflation and a mass exodus of nearly 8 million Venezuelans since 2014.
  • Stephen Miller inserted himself into Venezuela policy to link migration to national security, invoking the Alien Enemies Act to frame migration as a hostile invasion and justify aggressive domestic enforcement.

Immigration (1)

  • Blitzer notes over 600,000 Venezuelans in the US have Temporary Protected Status, and at least 100,000 more entered via a Biden parole program, leaving them in legal limbo as the administration cancels work authorizations.

Diplomacy (1)

  • The administration replaced Maduro with his deputy Delcy Rodríguez, a sanctioned hardliner. Blitzer says this undercuts the legitimacy argument and creates a puppet dilemma, with the US threatening her removal if she disobeys.

Energy (1)

  • The operation reflects a dated 1980s mindset, focusing on cocaine and oil dominance while ignoring that America is now a major energy exporter and China leads in renewable supply chains, argues Blitzer.
#War#Diplomacy#Immigration#Corruption
Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

5/28/26: U.S. & Iran Exchange Fire, Trump Says He Doesn't Care About Midterms, CDC Scrambles Amid Ebola Outbreak • May 28

  • US military struck a site in Iran near the Strait of Hormuz and intercepted four Iranian drones, targeting a facility US officials said posed a threat to American forces and commercial traffic.
  • Krystal says Iran may opt to respond elsewhere to US strikes rather than escalate directly, as a strong Iranian response would play into Israel's hands and jeopardize ceasefire negotiations.
  • Iran launched a ballistic missile towards Kuwait hours after drone attacks; it was intercepted by Kuwaiti forces. US Centcom stated all five Iranian drones were intercepted by US forces.
  • Trump threatened to 'blow up' Oman if it did not behave in line with US demands on Strait of Hormuz control, framing the strait as international waters open to everyone.
  • Trump stated he doesn't care about the midterm elections despite high gas prices and political pressure, suggesting his administration's calculus is to let opponents 'bake him pay' in the midterms.
Also from this episode: (9)

Diplomacy (1)

  • Trump stated Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar 'owe it to us' to immediately join the Abraham Accords and normalize relations with Israel, despite their historical refusal until a Palestinian state is established.

Politics (5)

  • Saagar argues Trump is adding Abraham Accords demands to the Iran deal at the last minute to avoid admitting the war was a failure, as signing the current deal would be an unambiguous political loss.
  • Krystal argues Uganda closing its border with Congo defies WHO recommendations and may worsen detection, as it pushes travelers to informal crossings across a porous border.
  • Krystal says local skepticism of aid workers in Congo stems from historical exploitation and rebel-held territory distrust, not ignorance, paralleling medical skepticism in the US among abused populations.
  • Saagar states he shares critiques of the COVID response but would take the flawed previous public health regime over the current dismantled one with RFK Junior, whom he calls a 'maniac crank' and snake oil salesman.
  • Saagar and Krystal debate public health competence, with Saagar citing CDC failures on masking, vaccines, and mandates, and Krystal countering that RFK Junior's dismantling has made the system vastly worse for a future pandemic.

Business (1)

  • Saagar notes Texas gas prices hit $3.99 per gallon, an unfathomable level for a state with refineries, highlighting the economic damage from the Iran conflict.

Science (2)

  • Krystal says the CDC is seeking volunteers from staff to conduct Ebola screenings at US airports as the outbreak response expands, signaling a strained domestic public health infrastructure.
  • The Ebola outbreak in DRC is the third worst recorded, with 223 deaths and 900 suspected cases. Detection was late due to a rare strain, defunding of USAID, and the remote, rebel-held location.
#War#Elections#Health#Macro

5/28/26: John Mearsheimer Cooks Neocons On Iran, Russia Ukraine War Escalates, Pope Leo Warns About AI • May 28

  • Mearsheimer argues the US and Israel started the war with Iran. He cites negotiations in June and an Israeli attack, then US attacks on February 28th while Iran was negotiating.
  • Mearsheimer says Israel opposes a US-Iran deal because it would be disastrous for Israel. He claims Israel is bombing Lebanon to undermine negotiations and prevent a ceasefire.
  • On Ukraine, Mearsheimer states Russia has conquered roughly 20% of Ukrainian territory and is winning the ground war. He argues Ukraine will never recover this lost land.
  • Mearsheimer warns Russia may escalate to limited conventional strikes on NATO countries due to Western-assisted Ukrainian attacks deep into Russia. He says Russian elites argue this is necessary to re-establish deterrence.
  • Mearsheimer claims the US helped Ukraine attack one leg of Russia's strategic nuclear triad, an act he calls unthinkable during the Cold War. He says this has eroded nuclear deterrence.
Also from this episode: (6)

Politics (2)

  • John Mearsheimer states there is no evidence Iran knew about or planned the October 7th attack on Israel. He notes Pompeo and Nuland's response was mockery, not factual rebuttal.
  • Mearsheimer assesses the Iran war has destroyed US credibility with Gulf allies. He says they now see US bases as vulnerable and must plan for their own security.

AI & Tech (3)

  • Brendan Steinhauser says Pope Leo XIV's encyclical frames AI as a tool that should serve humanity, not replace human dignity or work. He highlights warnings about automated weapons, data privacy, and transhumanism.
  • Steinhauser states David Sacks convinced President Trump to pull a planned AI safety executive order, arguing it would hurt the US edge over China. Steinhauser calls this a grave national security mistake.
  • Steinhauser identifies AI-enabled cyber attacks and rapid job displacement as the most immediate AI threats. He cites over 130,000 jobs lost to AI and warns capabilities are doubling every four months.

Censorship (1)

  • Steinhauser criticizes the Trump administration's NSPM-7 memo, which labels 'anti-tech extremism' as a threat. He argues this chills free speech and targets the bipartisan backlash against data centers and tech oligarchs.
#War#Diplomacy#Regulation#AI Infrastructure#Society

5/24/26: Neocons FREAK As Trump Says Iran Deal INCHES Away • May 24

  • A potential 60-day Iran-US deal is imminent, marked by a professionally vetted Trump Truth Social post that correctly names foreign leaders and shows prior consultation with regional partners.
  • Dr. Parsi notes a panic among Washington 'warmongers' despite the US employing sanctions, lethal strikes, harsh rhetoric, naval blockades, and weapons interdiction against Iran - all of which have failed.
  • Reported deal terms include a comprehensive cessation of hostilities extending to Lebanon, the gradual release of frozen Iranian assets, and an end to the US 'blockade of the blockade' in the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Maritime traffic through the Strait would resume under joint Iranian and Omani oversight, with a 30-day window to negotiate a final agreement addressing the nuclear issue and the Strait's long-term status.
  • The deal's first phase reverts to the original ceasefire terms before FDD advocated for the 'blockade of the blockade.' The real test comes in the second-phase talks on Iran's nuclear stockpile and the Strait.
  • Israeli public criticism of a deal may be muted during their election season because Trump remains extremely popular in Israel and could act as a domestic kingmaker.
  • Dr. Parsi argues military options to reverse US fortunes in Iran do not exist. Trump has shied from actualizing his threats because it would be a suicide mission that worsens the situation.
  • The failed Isfahan operation, portrayed as a pilot rescue, likely involved an attempt to target nuclear facilities and resulted in the largest single loss of US carrier aircraft since the Vietnam War.
  • Controlling the Strait of Hormuz is a new red line for Iran. A proposed Omani 'environmental management fee' is being discussed, with the US pushing for broader GCC regionalization to dilute Iranian control.
  • A final deal concluding this war would be a strategic defeat for Israel, revealing its inability to fight Iran without massive US support and further eroding its standing with the American public.
  • Dr. Parsi argues the war's outcome marks an inflection point ending US global primacy, raising fundamental questions worldwide about America's capacity and competence to sustain it.
Also from this episode: (3)

Politics (2)

  • Krystal and Saagar highlight potential turning points for Trump: the initial Israeli intelligence failure, the disastrous Isfahan pilot rescue mission, and the unproductive China trip that closed off external pressure options.
  • Ahead of Trump's Beijing visit, Iran and China struck a deal allowing Chinese ships through the Strait, neutralizing the FDD argument that China would pressure Iran and leaving the US as the only blocking power.

Diplomacy (1)

  • Dr. Parsi criticizes the public 30-day negotiating window as a 'silver platter' for hawks to sabotage the deal and as making Trump politically vulnerable during that period.
#War#Diplomacy#Middle East#Trade#Macro
The Daily
The Daily

The Whiplash Over a Possible Peace Deal With Iran • May 27

  • Trump administration officials described a 50-50 chance over the weekend that the US would either restart the war with Iran or make progress toward a nuclear deal.
  • Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz is the largest disruption of energy supply in modern history, giving Tehran significant leverage despite US military superiority.
  • US airstrikes on Iranian targets Monday hit missile sites, drone activity, and suspected mine-laying boats, described as defensive actions but underscoring the fragile ceasefire during negotiations.
  • David Sanger notes the Iran nuclear deal under President Obama took two years to negotiate, and Tehran may be trying to wait out Trump's remaining term to preserve its nuclear capability.
  • Tyler Pager argues sustained high gas prices from the closed strait, potentially exceeding $5 a gallon, pose an extreme political danger for Republicans in the upcoming midterm elections.
  • Scandal-plagued Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton won the Republican Senate primary, defeating incumbent John Cornyn after receiving Donald Trump's endorsement.
Also from this episode: (7)

Politics (7)

  • The potential deal focuses on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, not resolving Iran's nuclear program or missile capabilities. David Sanger describes it as a memorandum of understanding that merely restores the pre-war status quo.
  • The US seeks the removal of 970 pounds of Iranian highly enriched uranium, material that could be turned into nuclear weapon fuel within weeks. No disposal mechanism had been agreed upon by Sunday.
  • Republican hawks like Senator Lindsey Graham opposed the emerging deal, arguing Trump should not ease military pressure until he achieves more concessions and his original political objectives.
  • Trump lashed out at media critics during negotiations, calling New York Times coverage 'treasonous' and sensitive to the historical judgment that failing to dismantle Iran's nuclear capability would represent a failure.
  • A senior US official blamed the media on Sunday for reporting inaccurate details from Arab and Iranian sources aimed at tanking the deal, while conceding no document existed for Iran's Supreme Leader to sign.
  • Trump's Monday demand for all countries to immediately sign the Abraham Accords complicated negotiations, as Arab nations like Saudi Arabia and Jordan have little interest, especially after the Gaza war.
  • Secretary of State Marco Rubio said a final deal could take a few more days, with the administration willing to give mediators like Qatar and Pakistan additional time.
#War#Elections#Macro#Energy
No Agenda Show
No Agenda Show

Adam Curry

1871 - "Hatman" • May 24

  • Adam Curry reports that Vice President Kamala Harris turned around and returned to DC, and President Trump did not attend his son's wedding ceremony in the Bahamas, suggesting a major deal with Iran is imminent.
  • Secretary of State Marco Rubio outlined key deal points with Iran: Iran must turn over its enriched and highly enriched uranium, cannot have a nuclear weapon, and the Strait of Hormuz must be opened without tolls.
  • Curry argues the Strait of Hormuz blockade is a financial war driven by insurance, not a physical naval blockade, with Lloyd's of London and reinsurers causing shipping costs to skyrocket.
  • The Democratic Party's 2024 election autopsy, a 192-page draft released by DNC Chair Ken Martin, argues Harris wrote off rural voters and failed to attack Trump with sufficient negative firepower.
  • Tulsi Gabbard resigned as Director of National Intelligence citing her husband's rare bone cancer diagnosis, with media insinuating she was pushed out over Iran war disagreements.
Also from this episode: (13)

Politics (9)

  • BBC reporting on Trump's Iran deal announcement repeatedly referred to him as 'Mr. Trump,' which Curry and Dvorak label as editorialized disrespect.
  • A Fox report stated the U.S. Treasury froze over $300 million in Iranian regime crypto last month, and has frozen nearly half a billion dollars total, tracking digital breadcrumbs to sever financial lifelines.
  • John Dvorak analyzes Representative Thomas Massie's loss, arguing it was due to defecting on key votes in a red district, like opposing the Save Act voter ID bill, not because of Jewish donor money.
  • Senator John Cornyn opposed the Save Act, arguing it required nuking the filibuster as Democrats wouldn't support it, with Dvorak noting this reveals his true colors as an outgoing anti-MAGA senator.
  • The Trump administration's new USCIS memo requires non-immigrants in the U.S. to return to their home country to apply for green cards, impacting students, temporary workers, and tourists.
  • Gabbard declassified emails showing NSA Director Mike Rogers objected to the rushed 2016 intelligence assessment on Russian hacking, warning his team lacked sufficient access to underlying evidence.
  • The Pentagon released over 50 declassified UFO videos per Trump's directive, including audio from Gemini 7 astronauts, but experts say none prove alien life, only unexplained phenomena.
  • Deborah Birx countered CBS's narrative that Trump gutted USAID, citing CDC's retained global health funding and over $400 million for Uganda HIV programs, while questioning why the African CDC failed.
  • The NAACP urges black athletes to boycott public universities in eight southern states that are weakening black voter power through racial redistricting, asking them to withhold commitment and financial support.

Protocol (1)

  • Iran is reportedly launching a digital insurance platform for cargo ships in the Strait of Hormuz, settling payments entirely in Bitcoin to evade sanctions and access fresh capital.

Culture (1)

  • A viral internet theory claimed retired Vice Admiral Robert Harward wore a hyper-realistic mask during a Fox News interview; Curry dismisses it as lighting shadows or a smoothing filter artifact.

AI & Tech (1)

  • Following a shooting near the White House, Dvorak critiques the narrative that AI data centers and Palantir enable total surveillance, noting known suspect Nasir Best wasn't tracked despite prior warnings.

Business (1)

  • A Tennessee kratom ban was passed citing a teen's death, but a producer's note revealed the toxicology report showed a lethal dose of Benadryl, not kratom, was the primary cause.
#War#Diplomacy#BTC Markets#Corruption