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Iran deal forces Gulf states to choose sides

Sunday, June 28, 2026 · from 3 podcasts
Tucker Carlson ShowBreaking PointsBTC Sessions
  • Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz is now a geopolitical lever, forcing US allies to pick between Washington and Tehran.
  • The US has de-escalated, lifting sanctions to stabilize oil flows, but depleted missile stocks limit military options until 2030.
  • A $46M Israeli-linked influencer campaign pushed for war, revealing deep fractures in the GOP’s foreign policy base.

Iran won. Not with tanks or treaties, but by closing the Strait of Hormuz - the world’s most critical oil chokepoint - and forcing the US into a retreat. John Mearsheimer put it bluntly on Breaking Points: the war is over, and Trump is now selling a necessary surrender as diplomacy. The administration lifted oil sanctions and allowed Iran to settle transactions in dollars - a move that stabilizes global supply but cedes strategic ground.

The cost of failure was too high. Trump’s priority isn’t Israeli security - it’s avoiding a 1930s-style economic collapse. With gas prices politically toxic, the administration’s survival depends on cheap energy. As Doomberg noted on BTC Sessions, the US government now acts as the ultimate counterparty in oil markets, suppressing volatility at all costs. That means no more betting on $150 oil - the state is shorting the rally.

But not everyone accepted the deal. Alex Bruesewitz, speaking on The Tucker Carlson Show, revealed a $46 million influencer operation tied to Israeli-linked entities and funneled through Brad Parscale. The goal: pressure Trump into escalation by shaping Gen Z narratives through Salem Media and right-wing digital networks. This wasn’t lobbying - it was narrative laundering.

"Trump is putting lipstick on a pig to sell a necessary retreat."

- John Mearsheimer, Breaking Points

The backlash wasn’t just external. Tucker Carlson, once a Trump ally, now denounces the GOP as a vehicle for foreign interests. He’s not alone. Marjorie Taylor Greene and JD Vance supporters are fracturing over loyalty to the US versus alignment with Israel. The party’s anti-interventionist wing sees the Iran MOU as a victory - 67% of Americans agree, per polling cited by Bruesewitz. But the hawks, led by figures like Mark Levin, demand more strikes.

The split is now tactical and cultural. Bruesewitz described a new right-wing cancel culture targeting families of dissenters - a North Korean playbook, he called it. Meanwhile, the UAE’s exit from OPEC+, noted by James Rabidoux, signals a broader realignment: Gulf states are choosing sides not just in energy, but in geopolitics. The US no longer needs Gulf oil - but it needs to control who gets it.

"They’re laundering information through the MAGA ecosystem to keep us in a forever war."

- Alex Bruesewitz, The Tucker Carlson Show

The Strait remains open - for now - but only because Iran allows it. The US military, weakened by years of underinvestment, lacks the missile stockpile to enforce access before 2030. Diplomacy isn’t driven by strength, but by exhaustion.

#Diplomacy#Middle East#Trade#Russia
UAEIranIsraelStrait of Hormuz

Source Intelligence

- Deep dive into what was said in the episodes

The Tucker Carlson Show
The Tucker Carlson Show

Tucker Carlson

Trump’s Social Media Advisor Reveals All: Epstein, Iran, and Mark Levin’s Israeli Propaganda • Jun 26

  • Broussowitz argues that misinformation was spread by both pro-war voices and some anti-war critics, citing false claims about the US giving $300 billion to Iran related to the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU).
  • Public polling data indicates that the Trump Vance agreement, a settlement framework with Iran, is widely popular among American people, with 67% support.
  • Alex Broussowitz highlights working with Congresswoman Anna Paulina Luna to strengthen disclosure laws regarding foreign influence and money poured into the internet ecosystem, which he believes harms democracy.
  • Broussowitz details his work on Marjorie Taylor Green's social media presence, helping her grow from 2,000 Twitter followers to over 800,000 within a nine-month period in 2020-2021 through viral content and leveraging censorship.
  • Broussowitz recounts blocking Senator Ted Cruz from getting a picture with Nicki Minaj at a Trump accounts event, highlighting Cruz's perceived unlikable personality and his self-proclaimed role as Israel's top defender.
  • Tucker Carlson emphasizes that a democracy requires a maximum amount of information about candidates for voters to decide, criticizing the Republican Party of Florida for shutting down debates and limiting voter choice.
  • Carlson criticizes the lack of a thorough and transparent investigation into the assassination of Charlie Kirk, noting ignored leads and federal authorities' failure to answer basic questions, which he believes fosters speculation.
Also from this episode: (6)

War (1)

  • Alex Broussowitz claims a coordinated effort exists to pressure the US administration to continue the conflict in Iran, potentially involving foreign influence and millions of dollars flowing to right-wing influencer marketing companies.

Other (5)

  • Tucker Carlson criticizes the Attorney General at the time, Pam Bondi, for publicly stating she had thousands of files on sexual abuse of children without subsequent indictments, questioning the lack of follow-up.
  • Alex Broussowitz revealed he rejected approximately $20 million in foreign contracts over 15 months, including an offer from an Israeli foundation in June 2025 to create anti-Iran social media strategy for the American market.
  • Broussowitz states that former Trump digital director Brad Parscale's company filed a FARA contract with Israel for $1.5 million per month, later updated to $46 million annually, for creating pro-Israel content across various platforms, including Salem Media Network properties.
  • Carlson asserts that American institutions discriminate against white Christian males in college admissions, federal contracting, and hiring, arguing that this anti-white racism is a foundational problem that the Justice Department fails to address.
  • Carlson and Broussowitz criticize the Republican-controlled Senate and its leadership for failing to pass widely popular legislation like the 'Save America Act' for voter ID, despite strong support from Republican voters and President Trump.
#Diplomacy#Censorship#Middle East#Social Media
Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

6/23/26: John Mearsheimer On Iran & Ukraine, Tucker Says He Is Done With Republican Party • Jun 23

  • Mearsheimer notes that Iran won the "war" and made demands accepted by the US, including permission to sell oil and settle transactions in dollars, which also benefits the US by increasing global oil supply.
  • Tucker Carlson announced he is "done" supporting the Republican Party, stating it is "not loyal to the United States" and prioritizes foreign interests, a sentiment echoed by Marjorie Taylor Green and other disaffected conservatives.
Also from this episode: (11)

Diplomacy (2)

  • President Trump frames lifting sanctions on Iranian oil and allowing funds into escrow for food and medical supplies as a "humanitarian mission," despite Iranian denials of nuclear inspection agreements.
  • Mearsheimer asserts the Iran deal is a "strategic disaster for Israel," countering its ambition to be the sole regional hegemon by allowing a reconstructed Iran to potentially surpass Israel in power due to its larger population and human capital.

War (6)

  • John Mearsheimer states the US has "lost this war" with Iran, which will emerge in much better condition, arguing Trump's comments about nuclear inspections are premature and a way to "put lipstick on a pig."
  • Mearsheimer argues Israel is "in a big mess today" after October 7th, having failed to defeat Hezbollah or Hamas, and continues its grand strategy of weakening neighbors by overtly threatening NATO member Turkey and supporting a Kurdish state to fragment the region.
  • Ukraine's aggressive strikes inside Russia, targeting oil and gas infrastructure, have damaged Russian oil output by 10% and significantly impacted Crimea's energy supply, leading to Russian frustration over unrespected "red lines."
  • Mearsheimer outlines internal Russian discussions about conventional attacks against European or NATO countries, potentially escalating to using "a handful of nuclear weapons" in Eastern Europe, believing NATO would not retaliate with its own nuclear arsenal.
  • The Ukraine "war" revealed the US lacks the industrial base for protracted conventional warfare, unlike Russia and China. Mearsheimer notes the Iran "war" further weakened the US position in East Asia by diverting military assets, undermining its ability to contain China.
  • Krystal and Saagar contend the Iran "war" and events like the Minneapolis protests destroyed the Trump administration's political capital, leading to a rollback of aggressive immigration policies like "Alligator Alcatraz" and ICE warehouse detention centers.

Macro (1)

  • Mearsheimer explains that US economic imperatives, specifically the threat of an "economic catastrophe" and a "great depression," compelled the Trump administration to seek a deal with Iran and play "hardball" with Israel for the first time.

Israel (1)

  • Saagar suggests the Israel lobby's influence is still overwhelmingly strong in the Republican coalition, despite Trump's recent pivots, arguing that 80% of Americans, including MAGA Republicans, support ending the war even if it means a US loss.

Immigration (1)

  • Florida taxpayers fronted $1 billion for the now-shut-down "Alligator Alcatraz" facility, while ICE is selling seven warehouses bought for $700 million, both emblematic of failed, showy immigration policies that faced local backlash and judicial opposition.
#War#Diplomacy#Middle East#Elections#Macro
BTC Sessions
BTC Sessions

Housing Crash, Immigration Crisis & Economic Ruin | Rabidoux & Temprile • Jun 23

  • Doomberg claims the US government discourages making money from long energy positions during Middle East conflicts, similarly to how it discourages shorting banks during financial crises.
  • James argues that political motivations, particularly avoiding high gas prices before midterm elections, influence government actions in the energy market.
  • James suggests the UAE leaving OPEC+ is a structural change, potentially diminishing OPEC's control over oil pricing.
  • Doomberg, referencing Iranian propaganda, posits the UAE left OPEC+ as a financial consequence of being caught in the war, acting as a proxy for Israel, and as a condition for US dollar swaps.
  • China has reduced its oil imports by 3.5 million barrels per day, likely due to large, undisclosed domestic inventories.
  • Doomberg suggests a potential deal during Trump's visit to China could involve trading Middle East compromises for broader economic benefits, such as China agreeing to purchase 100 Boeing jets.
Also from this episode: (5)

Markets (1)

  • The market shows a significant disconnect, with oil around $100 per barrel despite the Strait of Hormuz being closed and an approaching war in Iran, while the S&P 500 hits all-time highs.

Macro (1)

  • Michigan consumer sentiment reached a record low of 48.2, contrasting sharply with rising stock markets and suggesting underlying economic concerns.

Energy (2)

  • Doomberg states that before the war, the world was "awash in oil," with a substantial glut that the industry did not openly admit to, selling excess at around $100 a barrel.
  • Doomberg asserts that human ingenuity in oil extraction creates an "infinite supply," making oil companies "deflationary machines" and challenging the peak oil narrative.

BTC Markets (1)

  • Doomberg compares oil's investment potential to Bitcoin, arguing oil's price cannot sustainably reach levels like $150, unlike Bitcoin which theoretically "could go to a million."
#Energy#Macro#Markets#Trade#China

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