Hardliners sabotage Iran peace to force war
- Rogue Revolutionary Guard units attacked ships to wreck U.S.-Iran peace talks, surprising Iran’s own leaders.
- The new Supreme Leader, burned and silent, can’t stop hardliners from fracturing the regime.
- 400% food inflation crushes ordinary Iranians while elites fight over revenge.
The peace deal was supposed to hold. Thirteen days after U.S. and Iran halted airstrikes, hardline factions within the Revolutionary Guard struck first - hitting three vessels in the Strait of Hormuz without government approval. According to Farnaz Fassihi on The Daily, U.S. officials and Iranian sources confirmed the attacks came from rogue elements, not state command. The move shocked Iran’s president and foreign minister, both of whom were mid-negotiation with Trump’s envoys.
The sabotage wasn’t random. Saeed Jalili, leader of the ultra-hardliners, has long rejected any diplomacy with the U.S. His faction, though only 10% to 20% of the population, wields outsized power through military and ideological control. They see talks as betrayal. At Ayatollah Khamenei’s funeral - a state-managed spectacle witnessed by New York Times reporter Abdi Latif Dahir - crowds turned on President Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Arakchi, throwing stones and shouting 'traitor.'
"The attacks on the ships were a gross violation of the agreement - but they didn’t come from the top. They came from within."
- Farnaz Fassihi, The Daily
The regime has no unifying voice. Mostaba Khamenei, the new Supreme Leader, hasn’t been seen since airstrikes burned his face and damaged his vocal cords. His silence has created a vacuum. Without a final arbiter, hardliners accuse the pragmatist government of staging a coup. Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf and his allies want economic relief through diplomacy. But they can’t deliver it while the south burns from nightly bombardments and grocery prices soar 400%.
Ordinary Iranians aren’t clamoring for war. Fassihi estimates 70% to 80% want peace - not because they love the regime, but because they’re starving. A recent digital petition demanded lawmakers be sent to frontline cities to experience what their rhetoric costs. The hardliners have the guns. The people have hunger.
"They want revenge. I will die for revenge. But who will feed my children after?"
- Farishti Sultan Ali, Mourner, The Daily
The U.S. sees no clear partner. Ambassador Mike Walz admitted negotiations are 'hugely challenging' with a fractured Iranian leadership. Trump’s claim of impending regime change is fantasy - Iran is more militarized now than before. The real fracture isn’t between Iran and America. It’s inside Tehran.
Source Intelligence
- Deep dive into what was said in the episodes
The Iranians Who Want More War • Jul 28
- Michael Bobaro reported a temporary pause in 13 days of U.S. and Iran airstrikes, but warned the conflict could resume due to a powerful Iranian faction.
- Iran's government permitted New York Times reporter Abdi Latif Tahir into the country, where he was continuously monitored by a government minder and two translators.
- Abdi Latif Tahir's purpose in Iran was to observe the multi-day funeral for former Ayatollah Ali Khomeini, who had been killed by the U.S. and Israel.
- Millions of Iranians from across the country attended Ali Khomeini's funeral at Azadi Square, in a scene Abdi Latif Tahir described as stage-managed for journalists.
- Abdi Latif Tahir observed mourners at Ali Khomeini's funeral expressing deep sadness that quickly hardened into anger and defiance, demanding revenge.
- Mourner Farishti Sultan Ali explicitly opposed negotiations with the U.S., telling Abdi Latif Tahir she was willing to die for revenge against Trump and Israel.
- Crowds at the funeral confronted President Pesachian and Foreign Minister Arakshi for participating in U.S. negotiations, nearly knocking one down and throwing stones at the other.
- Iran struck three ships in the Strait of Hormuz shortly after the funeral, which a U.S. official deemed a "gross violation" of the peace agreement.
- Farnas Fasih reported U.S. briefings and Iranian sources indicated "rogue hardline elements" within the Revolutionary Guards attacked the ships, surprising even Iran's president.
- Farnas Fasih highlighted Iran's unusual lack of official claim for the ship attacks, which she believes signals deep internal disarray within the country's leadership.
- Farnas Fasih stated that Iran's current political infighting is distinct, occurring within the conservative camp rather than the traditional conservative-reformer divide.
- Saeed Jalili leads Iran's ultra-hardliners, who advocate for no U.S. engagement and Israel's destruction, representing a loyal 10-20% minority of the 90 million population.
- Iran's pragmatist faction, including Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, seeks diplomacy, economic openness, and an end to sanctions, advocating against endless conflict.
- The new Supreme Leader, Mostaba al-Khamenei, remains in hiding and absent from public view due to fears of assassination and injuries from airstrikes, including vocal cord damage.
- Mostaba al-Khamenei's absence creates a leadership void, as he lacks his father's religious and political authority, allowing deep internal divisions to fester without a final say.
- Hardliners accuse the pragmatist government of staging a "coup" by negotiating peace without the new Supreme Leader's direct authorization, questioning the peace process's legitimacy.
- Farnas Fasih estimates 70-80% of Iranians, forming a "silent majority," desire peace but do not necessarily support the current Islamic Republic regime.
- This majority is angry at hardliners for disrupting peace, enduring consequences like a collapsing economy and 400% inflation on basic groceries.
- Farnas Fasih believes Mostaba al-Khamenei is unlikely to fully endorse peace, as it would risk his legitimacy and fundamentally challenge the Islamic Republic's anti-Western foundation.
- President Trump's claim of regime change in Iran is incorrect; the country has become more militarized, hardliners are entrenched, and the new leader lacks absolute power.
- U.S. Ambassador to the UN Mike Walz acknowledged that divisions within Iran's government make negotiating a peace deal "hugely challenging" for the Trump administration.
- Spain's Prime Minister reported wildfires burned hundreds of thousands of acres in his country, declaring that the climate emergency had arrived.
Also from this episode: (2)
Climate (2)
- Officials in Spain and France are warning that extreme heat will intensify what they call the "worst wildfire season in modern history."
- Wildfires in southwestern France have burned nearly 300,000 acres, displacing 200,000 people in one of France's largest peacetime evacuations.