Russian diesel deal tests sanctions, barely moves pump prices
- Trump suspended sanctions on Russian diesel to ease fuel costs; The Daily says pump relief was tiny.
- Envoys are offering Russia business deals before any peace, drawing dismay from Kyiv and Europe.
The Trump administration has paused sanctions on Russian diesel exports to bring down fuel prices before the midterm elections. By The Daily's account, the benefit to American drivers is close to invisible, while Moscow gets a sanctions opening and no known concession in return.
The background: energy prices rose after the Iran war began in February, and diesel above six dollars a gallon is a political risk for Republicans. Meanwhile, Ukrainian strikes reportedly knocked out about half of Russia's refining capacity, and Russia banned diesel exports in July. On the No Agenda Show, Trump was described as announcing 300,000 tons of Russian diesel immediately, with 500,000 more tons in November. The Daily says the Treasury temporarily suspended sanctions on Russian diesel purchases to make that possible.
The shows differ on how big the plan is. No Agenda cited later volumes of 1.5 million tons in one summary and 3 million tons in another. The Daily mentioned only the November tranche and "potentially millions more." These look like announced, shifting figures rather than settled ones.
The market effect is the sharpest point of agreement. The Daily reported that the first 300,000 tons is less than a day of U.S. diesel consumption, and that AAA showed diesel at $6.28 a gallon down from $6.32 a week earlier.
No Agenda reported that diesel futures fell after the announcement, by four percent in one account and 20 cents a gallon in another, but said analysts see a temporary fix, not a lasting one. The hosts of that show put daily U.S. diesel use at 123 million gallons.
Trump blamed Ukraine's strikes on Russian refineries for supply bottlenecks and, per No Agenda, said Kyiv had been warned about harming American farmers and truckers. The Daily's Anton Trojanovsky said Ukraine offered to stop hitting refineries if Russia stopped attacking Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Zelenskyy called the deal an investment in Russia's war effort, and European leaders warned it undermines coordinated sanctions. Trump blamed Zelenskyy for not settling earlier. The EU, The Daily noted, plans to end Russian gas imports next year.
The larger shift, according to The Daily, is that envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff now offer business opportunities before a peace deal, not after. It described a consortium led by Todd Boehly negotiating for Lukoil's international assets, including European refineries and U.S. gas stations, with partners tied to Kushner. The program said administration officials insist the envoys get no direct profit. Russia, meanwhile, has launched its heaviest bombardments of the year on Ukraine's energy grid, and Ukraine faces a winter with depleted missile defenses.
Source Intelligence
- Deep dive into what was said in the episodes
The U.S. Tried to Choke Russia’s Energy Market. Then It Made a Diesel Deal. • Oct 14
- Donald Trump announced that Russia would immediately supply 300,000 tons of diesel, another 500,000 tons in November, and potentially millions more; the Treasury temporarily suspended sanctions on Russian diesel purchases.
- Anton Trojanovsky says Trump’s envoys began dangling business deals in 2025 to persuade Putin to end the war, but Putin prioritizes territory, control over Ukraine, and Russia’s relationship with NATO.
- Anton says the Iran war, which began in February, pushed global energy prices higher while approaching midterm elections increased the administration’s incentive to show it was lowering fuel costs for Americans.
- Ukrainian strikes reportedly knocked out about half of Russia’s oil-refining capacity, contributing to fuel lines and a Russian diesel export ban; Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure continued, including a strike that killed at least 33 people.
- Anton says the Trump administration pressed Ukraine to stop hitting Russian refineries, while Ukraine offered to halt those strikes only if Russia also stopped attacking Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
- The initial 300,000 tons would add less than a day of U.S. diesel consumption, and AAA prices showed diesel at $6.28 per gallon on Tuesday, down from $6.32 a week earlier.
- Anton says the diesel decision startled Ukraine and European officials, who saw it as a weakening of sanctions; Europe still buys Russian liquefied natural gas, while Slovakia and Hungary continue buying Russian oil.
- The EU plans to end Russian gas imports next year, a sharp contrast with Washington’s diesel move; Anton says the U.S. had also maintained Biden-era support for Ukraine and recently expanded sanctions on Russian energy.
- Anton says the diesel deal had no known Russian concession in return, giving Putin a sanctions opening while Russia continued rejecting negotiations and striking Ukraine; Trump’s anger has focused on Zelensky, though U.S. intelligence support continues.
- A potential sale of Lukoil’s international assets could involve billions of dollars in refineries, oil fields, and gas stations; Anton reports an investor group led by Todd Boehly and including Middle Eastern partners with ties to Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff.
- Anton says Trump has restored high-level contact with Putin, including regular calls and envoy visits, but Russia’s war has escalated; a future settlement may require direct Russia-Ukraine negotiations because U.S. leverage over both sides is limited.
- Anton says sanctions remain a potential bargaining tool, but the administration may use them incrementally; U.S. policy could shift after elections, while political movements in Germany, France, and the UK are pressing for closer ties with Russia.
- Anton warns that Ukraine faces a dangerous winter with depleted missile defenses and continued Russian attacks on infrastructure, while the diesel and sanctions negotiations unfold without an end to the war in sight.
Also discussed on this episode: (3)
Corruption (1)
- Kimberly Guilfoyle resigned as U.S. ambassador to Greece after the White House asked her to step down; a Republican donor alleged she requested $100,000 for a credit-card bill before her Senate confirmation hearing.
Health (1)
- Pope Leo XIV was diagnosed with lung cancer and had the lower lobe of his right lung removed; the Vatican said the surgery succeeded without complications but did not say whether further treatment was planned.
Education (1)
- Cornell banned fraternity-house parties for the rest of the academic year after a student alleged gang rape in October 2024; the university also plans to add experienced sexual-assault investigators to work with campus police.
Adam Curry
1911 "Surpriselets" • Oct 11
- President Trump negotiated an energy agreement with Vladimir Putin for Russia to supply 300,000 tons of diesel fuel immediately to stabilize global markets. The announcement triggered a 20 cent per gallon drop in diesel futures.
Also discussed on this episode: (12)
Coding (1)
- Software developers are leveraging AI to replicate complex proprietary tools like Adobe CS and Microsoft Office from scratch. Tommy Jailbreakers claims his open-source project will refactor legacy code bases into lightweight content creation tools.
Society (1)
- Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced that Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan will be executed by military firing squad on December 3. Hegseth proposed live-streaming the event publicly to demonstrate severe consequences for terrorism.
Media (1)
- Media commentators criticized the proposed public streaming of Nidal Hasan's execution, noting the last public execution in the United States occurred in 1936. Department of Defense records confirmed Hasan drew a $7,000 monthly salary while imprisoned prior to conviction.
Middle East (1)
- Ex-CIA analyst Larry Johnson alleged an Omani Fly Dubai pilot's axe attack on his co-pilot was a staged intelligence setup to benefit Benjamin Netanyahu politically. The flight was 1,300 miles from its alleged target when the incident occurred.
Labor (1)
- The CIA offered voluntary buyout packages to its entire workforce, allowing staff to resign with eight months of pay and benefits. The move reflects broader executive efforts to downsize federal intelligence agency staffing.
Diplomacy (1)
- The Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize to Navi Pillai for advancing international criminal law. The Trump administration responded by imposing financial sanctions against the International Criminal Court and rejecting its jurisdiction over Americans.
Biology (2)
- Reports of a lab worker's death at the Anti-Plague Research Institute of Siberia triggered quarantine measures and global biosecurity concerns. Russian officials claimed 28-year-old Darya Shapilova died from non-plague pneumonia, denying any pathogen leak at the facility.
- Evolutionary biologist Bret Weinstein posited that a weaponized pathogen could target populations with mRNA vaccine-induced IgG4 antibodies by incorporating spike proteins. He argued global pandemic scares stemming from single lab incidents usually indicate psychological operations or gain-of-function research.
Elections (1)
- Texas Senate candidate James Tallarico re-emerged at the Austin City Limits music festival following a two-week absence caused by the flu. Opponent Ken Paxton had publicly questioned Tallarico's disappearance and demanded proof of life during campaign rallies.
Immigration (1)
- The Democratic Socialists of America published a policy platform advocating for the abolition of ICE, defunding the military, expanding the House, and subordinating the Supreme Court to Congress.
Agents (1)
- Groundwork Collaborative revealed Walmart plans to implement electronic shelf labels across all US stores by year-end to enable remote dynamic pricing. Adam Curry argued consumer AI agents will counteract corporate price discrimination through automated real-time arbitrage.
Big Tech (1)
- Technology and financial markets slid following a Financial Times report citing a $20 billion discrepancy in OpenAI's reported revenue metrics.