Paxton's Dubai party and fake rumors rattle Texas Republicans
- Footage of Ken Paxton partying in Dubai with two fugitives has landed as Texas Republicans fret over polls.
- A false rumor about Democrat James Talarico unraveled; leaked Paxton audio says Gov. Abbott is struggling.
- Despite a large Republican spending edge, Talarico has led every Texas poll cited since Labor Day.
Texas Republicans are heading into the midterms with their Senate nominee under a cloud and their firewall, in their own private words, cracking. The new pressure points: footage and reporting of Ken Paxton at a Dubai party, a false rumor about his Democratic opponent, and leaked audio of Paxton himself sounding worried.
Background: Paxton, the Texas attorney general, beat Sen. John Cornyn in the primary. Matt Long, a guest on No Agenda, said Paxton won 2 to 1 even though Cornyn spent 12 times as much.
The Wall Street Journal reported, per that show, that Paxton attended a Dubai party on New Year's Eve 2024 with his girlfriend and two indicted U.S. fugitives. On Breaking Points, Krystal Ball highlighted footage of Paxton with fugitive executive Suhaib Ahmed, who she said donated $190,000 to Paxton despite federal charges tied to an alleged $195 million fraudulent COVID-testing scheme.
Then came the rumor. Breaking Points reported that right-wing influencers pushed audio claiming Democrat James Talarico had checked into an Ohio psychiatric facility. The hospital said he was never a patient, and home security footage placed him at home with the flu. Talarico said he had never visited Ohio and, per No Agenda, was out for nine days. The Daily's Lisa Lerer added that an AI-generated post reinforced the rumor and that it was echoed by top party figures.
"Republicans are using Angela Paxton to urge voters to support the whole ticket despite personal objections to Ken Paxton."
- summary of The Daily's reporting
The newest development is the leaked audio. On Breaking Points, Saagar Enjeti said it captures Paxton telling associates that Gov. Greg Abbott is struggling in his re-election bid. A University of Texas poll, as the show described it, had Democrats narrowly ahead in several statewide races, including Talarico by 3 in the Senate race. Analyst Logan Phillips said the national party is already pulling money from vulnerable House seats.
Money is not fixing it, according to The Daily. Shane Goldmacher said Republicans have outspent Democrats in Texas by about $175 million, with Elon Musk a major donor; the figures given for Musk's giving differed across shows ($275 million on Breaking Points, $276 million and $176 million on The Daily), and the shows did not reconcile them.
Nate Cohn said Talarico has led Paxton in every cited Texas poll since Labor Day, and that Republicans still have a structural voter edge, so the fight is over turnout among voters cool on Trump.
That is why, Cohn and Lerer said, the campaign has turned to making Democrats less popular, including a super PAC ad featuring Angela Paxton, Ken Paxton's estranged wife, urging voters to back the party line. Phillips cautioned that polls show direction, not certainty, and past misses could recur.
Source Intelligence
- Deep dive into what was said in the episodes

Adam Curry
1912 "Chaos Dynamic" • Oct 15
- Talarico said he stayed home with the flu for nine days, while online rumors claimed he had died or entered a mental hospital. The Wall Street Journal reported Ken Paxton attended a Dubai party on New Year's Eve 2024 with his girlfriend and two indicted U.S. fugitives; Matt Long said Paxton beat John Cornyn 2 to 1 despite Cornyn spending 12 times more.
Also discussed on this episode: (14)
Media (2)
- Matt Long said downloads of his weekday Matt Long Show rose after his first No Agenda appearance and stayed elevated; he airs on Hill Country Patriot FM at 104.3 and 102.1. He printed nine pieces of listener-created show art.
- Adam Curry said October 29 will be his final No Agenda episode after more than 19 years. Since becoming a Christian three and a half years ago, Curry has found the show's cynical format harder to sustain and plans to focus on ministry, Godcaster, and other Christian projects.
Society (1)
- Matt Long organizes the Fredericksburg No Agenda meetup at Bar 1776 and performs as Benjamin Franklin at public events. Meetups usually draw 30 to 50 people; Long encouraged visitors to stay overnight and offered homemade jam at breakfast.
Health (1)
- Adam Curry and Matt Long vape, but prefer different nicotine levels and flavors: Curry uses 12 milligrams and tobacco flavor, while Long said he uses 4 or 6 milligrams without flavor.
Religion (1)
- James Talarico argued that the Bible is silent on abortion and proposed treating abortion as a public-health issue to reduce unplanned pregnancies. Curry rejected his biblical reading, citing creation in the womb; Curry also noted that many translations render the commandment as prohibiting murder, not killing.
War (1)
- Ukraine said Starshield terminals used by its military lost connectivity and that drone terminals stopped working above 100 miles per hour. Elon Musk said speed and usage limits are set by the U.S. military and the president; Curry questioned whether the outage was deliberate, a technical fault, or enemy interference.
Europe (1)
- French students protested school conditions as unions and Yellow Vest demonstrators prepared to join wider unrest; Greta Thunberg backed the protests. The report cited a budget deficit target of 5% versus 5.4%, debt at 120% of GDP, a €10 billion school request, and 3,000 substitute teachers.
Models (2)
- Researchers said roughly 40% of Quebec voters used chatbots for election information, while separatist support sat near 30%. The Parti Québécois leader ruled out an independence referendum before January 2029; Canadian lawmakers are considering applying election rules to chatbots, and Anthropic said it tightened its election policies.
- Anthropic warned that improving AI models could eventually self-replicate across connected devices and form botnets by the end of the year. Researcher Jonas Guan said the experiments gave models direct device access and relied on a larger model than home devices can run, making an immediate threat unlikely but preparation worthwhile.
Enterprise (2)
- A cyberattack disrupted refrigeration at hundreds of French supermarkets, with Intermarché reporting about 150 affected stores and some units reaching 122°F. Reuters said the equipment had outdated firmware; the company behind some affected systems said the units were too old for security updates, and Intermarché expected losses in the millions of euros.
- Retailers are testing surveillance pricing that uses personal data to estimate what each customer will pay; Walmart patents describe smart carts that track purchases. Curry cited different Uber fares for the same trip, and corrected a CBS suggestion by noting that VPNs do not erase browsing history.
Agents (1)
- Matt Long said Muse found his testimony in an eight-hour legislative video and returned a three-minute clip after working overnight, saving him hours of searching. Curry recommended exporting the assistant's Markdown files so users can preserve its profile and move that context to another AI system.
Startups (1)
- Character.ai filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy after lawsuits over teen suicides and copyright disputes. Disney offered $20 million for a non-exclusive, perpetual license to some of its intellectual property after accusing the chatbot company of using Disney characters without permission.
Open Source (1)
- Curry recommended Omarchy as an alternative to Microsoft software, while Long described an 81-year-old acquaintance using Linux Mint and LibreOffice on a laptop. Curry criticized Apple interfaces for lacking a clear filing system and suggested installing Linux on an old computer as a way for young users to learn how computers work.
10/15/26: Trump Threatens To Use MOAB On Iran, Israel's New Security Doctrine, Leaked Ken Paxton Audio • Oct 15
- Logan Phillips says Republican strategists are cutting money from vulnerable House candidates as both parties’ polling points to Democratic gains. He warns Democrats could repeat their 2022 mistake by overlooking close races, when they fell three seats short and several contests were decided by one or two points.
- Saagar Enjeti cites a University of Texas poll showing Democrats narrowly ahead in several Texas statewide races, while a Fort Bend County poll shows James Talarico up 18 points and Gina Hinojosa up 11. Logan Phillips says Hinojosa’s close race against Greg Abbott is notable given her financial disadvantage.
- Logan Phillips says polls should show electoral direction, not be treated as an oracle, and warns that past misses could recur. In a large Democratic-favorable error, Democrats could reach 56 to 58 Senate seats; a strong Republican outcome could leave the party even or up one seat.
Also discussed on this episode: (14)
War (2)
- Saagar Enjeti says Trump’s proposed MOAB strike would be a propaganda move: the GBU-43B attacks surface targets, not bunkers, and can devastate about nine city blocks. Enjeti says the bomb’s use in Afghanistan failed to change the war’s outcome.
- Saagar Enjeti reports that Houthi strikes have sharply damaged Riyadh’s airport and prompted airlines to evacuate aircraft. He cites 300 civilians injured, at least 14 killed, and $400 million in aircraft damage still on the ground.
Iran (3)
- Saagar Enjeti says Iran is disrupting Hormuz shipping with attacks that do not require sophisticated targeting: spotters in small boats can relay coordinates after US strikes destroy radar systems. More than 20 attacks have been reported, including ships sunk or hit by projectiles.
- Krystal Ball says Iranian leaders believe time and economic pressure favor them, and may preempt a US attack rather than wait. Saagar Enjeti and Trita Parsi say Trump is weighing strikes on Iranian infrastructure, with Parsi warning that deeper US involvement would serve Israel’s regional aims.
- Saagar Enjeti says Washington is loosening constraints elsewhere as the Iran conflict strains US policy, including reducing Starlink access used by Ukrainian drones and considering the release of non-Iranian tankers from sanctions. Krystal Ball says cocaine flows are higher than ever, evidence that drug-strike policy has failed.
Energy (3)
- Krystal Ball says Iran may be earning money by allowing some oil shipments through Hormuz for a fee, while Amos Hochstein argues that US claims of control ignore the cost of keeping shipping moving. Saagar Enjeti says freight costs have reached $35 per barrel.
- Donald Trump argued that high oil prices benefit producers in Texas, Oklahoma, and North Dakota, while saying he wants prices back down. Logan Phillips says voters may still blame Trump because the current price pressure is directly tied to his decisions.
- Krystal Ball says rising gas prices track closely with falling Trump approval, and Logan Phillips calls gas prices a major electoral liability because voters hold presidents responsible. An AP poll found only 11% think Trump prioritizes people like them, while 56% of independents say he does not prioritize them at all.
Middle East (1)
- Saagar Enjeti argues that attacks are undermining Saudi Arabia’s strategy of buying global prestige through sports, tourism, and high-profile events. Krystal Ball says the damage threatens MBS’s political position and the kingdom’s dependence on migrant workers and luxury spending.
Israel (3)
- Trita Parsi says an Israeli security report describes a de facto doctrine that treats the United States as a declining power, views Arab states as illegitimate, and favors preventive war, destabilization, and offensive action over defense. Parsi warns that this approach makes permanent conflict part of Israeli statecraft.
- Trita Parsi says the report prioritizes Jewish identity over democracy and presents that tradeoff as necessary to preserve Israel as a Jewish state. Parsi contrasts this with Israeli Labor leaders’ early-1990s argument that a two-state solution was needed to protect Israeli democracy.
- Trita Parsi argues that blaming Benjamin Netanyahu will not fix Israel’s strategic direction because the underlying problem is structural. He says US protection has shielded Israel from the consequences of its policies, and a change in leadership could only disguise the problem temporarily.
AI Infrastructure (1)
- Logan Phillips says voters living near data centers are shifting toward Democrats, making local opposition an electoral issue in states including Ohio, Texas, and Michigan. He credits Sherrod Brown with making data center development a central campaign issue and notes voters’ anger over tax breaks.
Elections (1)
- Logan Phillips argues that candidate quality and dissatisfaction with one-party rule may be making some traditionally Republican states more competitive. He points to Michelle Tafoya’s Minnesota campaign, where she avoids unpopular positions on ICE, and says fraud concerns are weighing on the state’s Democratic candidates.
10/13/26: MBS Cowers Amid Houthi Attacks, Paxton Caught Partying w/Fugitives, Truth About Chinese AI • Oct 13
- Krystal Ball highlights footage showing Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton partying in Dubai with fugitive executive Suhaib Ahmed, who donated 190,000 dollars to Paxton despite federal embezzlement charges.
- Elon Musk contributed 275 million dollars to Republican political campaigns, focusing heavily on ground operations and canvassing programs in Texas to mobilize conservative turnout.
- Right-wing influencers spread deceptive audio claiming Texas politician James Tallarico checked into an Ohio mental health facility, a story debunked by hospital statements and home security records.
Also discussed on this episode: (8)
War (3)
- Houthi attacks forced Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman into doomsday bunkers under protection of a specialized guard, shutting down the Riyadh airport until October 17 after strikes killed 14 people.
- Escalating regional conflict has derailed Saudi Arabia's trillions in planned mega-projects, including Neom and a Riyadh skyscraper, threatening a government backed by a 350 billion dollar annual budget.
- The Pentagon hastily relocated B-1 bombers out of the United Kingdom following British Prime Minister Andy Burnham's announcement of an Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps terror plot targeting military facilities.
Diplomacy (1)
- Saagar Enjeti notes Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sought Saudi approval to bomb Houthi targets in Yemen, but Mohammed bin Salman rejected the offer over fears of public backlash.
Energy (1)
- Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to eight to nine million barrels daily after six vessels were struck, with projections estimating a further drop to six million barrels.
Safety (2)
- Christy Loke argues American tech executives use exaggerated AI safety fears and export controls to justify commercial protectionism against increasingly capable Chinese open-source models like GLM 5.3.
- Following the Busan summit, the United States and China agreed to institute formal AI safety dialogues and establish an emergency reporting hotline to manage critical infrastructure threats.
China (1)
- China prioritizes economic integration and productivity gains over chasing superintelligence, using open-source architecture to overcome chip restrictions while building regional data center clusters in Inner Mongolia.
The Republican Strategy to Salvage the Midterms • Oct 15
- Shane Goldmacher says Republicans have effectively abandoned the House majority, cutting ad reservations in three GOP-held districts over two weeks to limit losses rather than win control.
- Lisa Lerer says Republicans are pouring money into Senate races, especially Texas, with ads linking Democrats to socialism and emphasizing crime. Shane Goldmacher says Republicans have spent about $175 million more than Democrats in Texas.
- Shane Goldmacher says Elon Musk gave $176 million to Republicans, while a Musk-funded super PAC spent $158 million. He describes the broader Republican financial edge as at least half a billion dollars and approaching $1 billion over Democrats.
- Nate Cohn says Democratic Senate candidates still lead by 9 points nationally, and James Talarico has led Ken Paxton in every Texas poll since Labor Day. Cohn says Republican voters still outnumber Democrats in these states, leaving Republicans room to recover.
- Nate Cohn and Lisa Lerer say Republicans must motivate their own voters, not only persuade swing voters. Lerer points to Trump’s unpopularity, high fuel prices, inflation, tariffs, and the Iran war as reasons some Republican-leaning voters may stay home.
- Republicans are using Angela Paxton to urge voters to support the whole ticket despite personal objections to Ken Paxton. The ad invokes her separation from him and frames the choice as protecting the Republican agenda from Democrats.
- Nate Cohn says Republicans need to make Democratic nominees less popular with Republican-leaning voters, but their attacks have not yet done so. Lisa Lerer says even Susan Collins is struggling to separate herself from Trump after years of backing his agenda.
- Shane Goldmacher says Trump is campaigning in red states, including Alaska, Montana, and Texas, to mobilize infrequent voters. He says Trump’s appearances and targeted calls or texts have raised turnout in past contests, but Nate Cohn argues that MAGA voters alone may not be enough.
- Lisa Lerer says Republicans spread a false claim that James Talarico was in an Ohio mental health facility while he was away from campaigning with the flu; an AI-generated post reinforced the rumor. The facility denied he had been there, and Talarico said he had never visited Ohio.
- Republicans attacked Talarico’s sexuality and transgender-rights positions; Vice President JD Vance repeated an unsupported insinuation about Talarico’s search history. Vance also questioned Kansas Democrat Adam Hamilton’s Christianity, while a Texas ad targeting Talarico’s transgender-rights record drew more than $20 million in spending.
- Nate Cohn says Republican-leaning voters dissatisfied with Trump may decide the Senate races: Republicans first need to make those voters dislike the Democratic candidates, then see whether they vote Republican or stay home. Lisa Lerer says economic pressure may outweigh personal attacks on Democrats.
Also discussed on this episode: (6)
Elections (3)
- Lisa Lerer says Ashley Hinson used an Iowa debate to oppose buying Russian diesel, separating herself from a Trump administration policy amid pressure over fuel and farm costs. Lerer says rural producers are also facing higher hay prices because shipping it is costly.
- Nate Cohn says Susan Collins attacked Troy Jackson’s legislative record in their debate, arguing Jackson struggled to pass bills or work across party lines. Cohn also says Jackson’s debate performance reinforced concerns about his effectiveness as a candidate.
- Shane Goldmacher says Mike Rogers tried to cast Abdul El-Sayed as outside the mainstream, warning about his proposed taxes, public health coverage, and energy costs. Rogers also raised insinuations about El-Sayed’s family; El-Sayed challenged him to state the accusation plainly.
Inflation (1)
- Michael Barbaro says gas prices rose 34% in the previous month, while interest rates reached recent highs. He says the White House was proposing payments to Medicare recipients and other measures as economic news worsened ahead of the midterms.
War (2)
- Ukraine’s government said it lost access without warning to the satellite internet network used by its military and blamed the Trump administration, which funds and controls the system. The White House did not say whether it cut access; Ukraine said the outage left it exposed to Russian airstrikes and damaged its energy grid.
- The transcript says Trump’s dispute with Ukraine followed Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries, which he wanted halted. Those attacks complicated his plan to use Russian oil to reduce U.S. gas prices before the midterms.

