Arab parties hold the key in Israel’s election deadlock
Oct 29, 2026Thursday, October 29, 2026Summary from 4 contributing podcasts.
- Likud won the most seats, but Netanyahu’s bloc remains short of a parliamentary majority.
- His opponents may have enough seats only if they work with Arab parties.
- Arab parties’ strong showing gives them leverage and tests whether rivals will include them.
Israel’s election has produced no clear path to a government. Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud won the most seats, but projections put his bloc at roughly 54 to 55, short of the 61 needed for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. The opposition appears to have enough seats on paper, but its parties have not agreed to govern with Arab parties.
That leaves Arab lawmakers with a potential deciding role. They could join an opposition coalition or support one from outside, as Jeffrey Sachs argued in an interview with Tucker Carlson. Arab parties recorded their strongest showing yet, and Sachs said unusually high turnout gave them leverage. Noga Tarnopolsky, on Breaking Points, said polling found most opposition voters would accept a government that included Arab parties, even though some opposition leaders have ruled that out.
The gap between voters and politicians is central to the impasse. Tarnopolsky said even about 45% of Netanyahu voters considered Arab participation in government acceptable. But Netanyahu campaigned against cooperation, casting Arab parties and the left as threats. He called the election stolen by Arab parties and sought police and Shin Bet investigations; those accusations were not accompanied by evidence of fraud in the accounts discussed on the shows.
The result came in a vote widely seen as a referendum on Netanyahu and his handling of the October 7 Hamas assault, the first national election since the attack. Netanyahu has rejected calls for a commission to investigate the security failures, while his opponents have promised one. The Economist’s Israel correspondent, Anshul Pfeffer, said Netanyahu was punished less than polls had forecast, despite those failures.
Pfeffer said the deadlock could work in Netanyahu’s favor: his opponents must either break their pledges to avoid Arab parties or leave him a chance to form a government. President Isaac Herzog is expected to consult party representatives and choose who gets the mandate to try. If no coalition can be assembled, Israel could face another election in early 2027.
Source Intelligence
- Deep dive into what was said in the episodes
The Tucker Carlson Show
Tucker Carlson
Jeffrey Sachs on Netanyahu’s Struggle to Keep Control of the World’s Most Bloodthirsty Ethnostate • Oct 29
- Mark Levin urged Israeli Likud supporters to vote against Arab citizens, describing them as a threat to Israel; Tucker Carlson says the appeal exposes the conflict between Arab participation and claims of democratic equality.
- Benjamin Netanyahu called the election stolen by Arab parties and demanded police and Shin Bet investigations; Yair Netanyahu argued Arab parties should be barred, citing Section 7A of the Basic Law: The Knesset.
- Jeffrey Sachs says Arab parties’ strong turnout left them with potential leverage to remove Netanyahu, either through a coalition or by supporting an opposition minority government; he says anti-Arab exclusion could keep Netanyahu in power.
Also discussed on this episode: (11)
Media (1)
- Tucker Carlson says U.S. coverage largely ignored Canada’s election despite Canada’s long border and major trade relationship, while Israeli election coverage drew intense attention.
Trade (1)
- Tucker Carlson argues Israel has little economic importance to the United States: it has fewer than 10 million people, limited trade, and receives substantial U.S. support.
Elections (2)
- Tucker Carlson argues Israel’s democratic claim is undermined by Palestinians in territories under Israeli control who cannot vote, and by separate, unequal public schooling for Arab citizens inside Israel.
- Jeffrey Sachs says U.S. opinion has turned against backing Israel’s conduct in Gaza, especially among young people, and predicts candidates who promise to end U.S. support for the wars will have an electoral advantage.
Middle East (2)
- Tucker Carlson says a video from an unidentified West Bank town showed masked settlers beating an elderly American citizen, throwing rocks at a home, and burning the family’s car; the source withheld his identity over fears for relatives’ safety.
- Tucker Carlson says settler attacks in the occupied territories are escalating and that Israeli authorities have sometimes distanced themselves only after video evidence emerged; he describes settlers as operating with impunity.
Corruption (1)
- Tucker Carlson criticizes U.S. officials and pro-Israel donors for staying silent as Israeli leaders challenged Arab voting rights; he also cites Mike Huckabee’s ties to Jonathan Pollard, who stole U.S. military secrets for Israel.
War (1)
- Sachs links U.S. wars in Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Iran to Netanyahu’s regional agenda, arguing the conflicts brought enormous costs, instability, and casualties; he says the Iran war began during negotiations and killed Iranian leaders gathered to discuss diplomacy.
Religion (1)
- Sachs says early Zionism was largely secular and that religious opposition to Zionism persisted among many rabbis; he argues a militant, nationalist religious politics grew from the 1970s onward and was distinct from rabbinic ethics.
Nation-State (1)
- Sachs says Netanyahu’s Likud has rejected Palestinian statehood since its founding and argues that demographic parity across the territory makes either equal rights in one state or a negotiated two-state arrangement unavoidable.
Diplomacy (1)
- Sachs argues Israel’s reliance on U.S. backing will face growing pressure as Americans reject funding its wars; he warns against proposed U.S.-Israeli security integration and says Israel will have to reckon with equal Arab and Jewish claims to the territory.
10/28/26: Israeli Election Results, Bolsonaro Flees Brazil To U.S., Dems Drop Trump Epstein Report • Oct 28
- Noga Tarnopolsky says Netanyahu’s Likud won the most seats but lost ground, leaving his bloc short of a government; the opposition has a majority on paper, but may lack the leverage to form one.
- Tarnopolsky says opposition voters favor governing with Arab parties, including Ra’am and the Joint List; she cites an exit poll showing this, and says even about 45% of Netanyahu voters accepted Arab participation in government.
- Tarnopolsky says Netanyahu and Likud pushed anti-Arab messages throughout election day, including an AI-manipulated image already debunked by Fake Reporter; about 10% of votes from temporary polling sites remained uncounted.
- Tarnopolsky says Netanyahu normalized anti-Arab rhetoric: election-day campaigning she describes as illegal drew only a small fine in an earlier cycle, while cabinet minister Itamar Ben-Gvir had 13 hate-crime and terror convictions.
Also discussed on this episode: (11)
Israel (1)
- Tarnopolsky says Netanyahu has sought another conflict with Iran and could use his caretaker period to expand Israeli action in Gaza; she sees continued West Bank violence as likely, despite limits on a caretaker prime minister’s powers.
Immigration (1)
- Juan David Rojas says Flavio Bolsonaro left Brazil after Justice Alexandre de Moraes ordered his passport surrendered; Rojas described a route through Argentina and Ecuador to Miami, where Marco Rubio said the Trump administration would provide asylum and visas.
Corruption (2)
- Rojas says Brazil’s Supreme Court has amassed outsized authority: individual justices can investigate, rule, and direct police enforcement. He argues that court power has become politicized and that reform is needed, citing a reported $50 million payment to Moraes from a banker tied to figures across political camps.
- The report adds a rape allegation from Swiss model Beatrice Kuehl, who says Trump promised visa and NYU help before assaulting her; Emily notes that James Patterson’s 2017 book had already discussed Epstein’s NYU connections, challenging the report’s claim that the link was not public.
Censorship (1)
- Rojas condemns censorship and due-process violations regardless of which side benefits, while saying Bolsonaro’s coup effort was serious; he cited military chiefs’ testimony that Bolsonaro sought a coup, alongside cases of people jailed without trial.
Elections (4)
- Rojas says Brazil extended voting by two hours for the first time, but the roughly 30,000 affected voters could not explain Lula’s four-million-vote win; Trump called the election’s tabulation strange while saying he liked Lula.
- Rojas says Lula’s victory came despite strong street support for him, while Bolsonaro’s party won a landmark congressional result; Lula campaigned pragmatically on crime, energy, Amazon development, and oil, and Rojas warned that Trump’s regional standing had fallen.
- The House Democratic report alleges Trump participated in Epstein’s abuse of young women and says federal officials suppressed evidence; Emily says the report links earlier allegations to Epstein, while Ryan Grimm recommends a special counsel led by Thomas Massie.
- Democrats are using Epstein-file votes in Senate ads, arguing Republicans protected donors and concealed abuse; Ryan Grimm says the issue can mobilize Democrats and independents while depressing Republican turnout, and cited at least $20 million in Senate ad spending.
Society (2)
- The report also recounts allegations from Stacey Williams, Jill Harth, and Ivana Trump, plus claims involving underage girls; the accounts differ in severity, and Harth later called her allegations embellished and said she might vote for Trump.
- Other accounts in the report describe Maxwell presenting women to Trump, Epstein’s birthday-book joke about selling a 20-year-old to Trump for $22,500, Maria Farmer’s account of Trump mistaking her for a younger girl, and a Russian model’s later flight with Maxwell and Prince Andrew.
Bye bye Bibi? Israel’s election results • Oct 28
- Anshul Pfeffer said Israel’s election produced a parliamentary deadlock: Netanyahu’s opponents may have a majority, but they cannot agree to govern with Arab parties, while a majority also opposes another Netanyahu government.
- Early exit polls gave the opposition 70 seats and Netanyahu’s coalition 50, but the count later put his coalition near 55; Likud became the largest party, and about half the votes were counted by Wednesday morning.
- Pfeffer said Netanyahu was punished less than polls predicted despite the October 7 attack and the strategic and intelligence failures on his watch; Israel’s intelligence and security chiefs had resigned, leaving Netanyahu as the senior figure still facing voters.
- Pfeffer said Netanyahu’s campaign repeatedly cast Arab parties and the left as threats, accusing them of trying to steal the election; Netanyahu used election-day social-media videos to discredit any coalition relying on Arab parties.
- President Isaac Herzog is expected to consult party representatives and choose who gets the mandate to form a government, but Pfeffer said neither Netanyahu nor Gadi Eisenkot can succeed unless parties break their pledges; otherwise, Israel could hold another election in early 2027.
Also discussed on this episode: (11)
Elections (6)
- Manuel’s Tavern in Atlanta is a neighborhood political gathering place known as a Democratic bar; its owners have hosted politicians including Al Gore, Bill Clinton, and Jimmy Carter, and John Ossoff held an early fundraiser in a small back room.
- Rebecca Jackson reported that Ossoff leads in every major poll and has raised more money than any other candidate nationwide this cycle, while running in a state Trump carried by two points in 2024.
- Ossoff pairs a restrained Senate record on foster care and military housing with combative speeches attacking Trump-era corruption; his team cuts his self-written remarks into viral Instagram clips and invokes civil-rights leader John Lewis to frame a broader vision.
- Ossoff’s only controversial Senate vote was against blocking federal funds for schools that allow transgender women to compete in women’s sports; his constituent work also includes meeting the family of Amber Thurman, who died after traveling from Georgia to North Carolina for an abortion.
- Two Republican mayors in rural South Georgia endorsed Ossoff in August, saying a candidate can rise above party lines; Jackson said his crossover appeal matters in a state that remains more Republican than Democratic.
- Ossoff became the first millennial senator and has said he does not want to run for president, but Jackson said a strong Georgia result could increase pressure from Democrats looking for a candidate who can win.
Media (5)
- Doug Dowson found that critics and audiences differ more in which films they review than in how they rate films: critics favor documentaries, foreign films, and low-budget movies, while audiences gravitate toward action and science fiction.
- Dowson’s data showed critics’ and audiences’ ratings correlated at about 0.6 from 2005 to 2016; agreement later fell, largely because of a handful of popular big-budget action and family films, then began recovering around 2022.
- Dowson offered franchise fatigue as a possible reason critics diverged from audiences over superhero films, then suggested the pandemic’s shock and lower cinema revenues may have pushed critics to reconnect with moviegoers; he said ratings now align more closely than at any point in the dataset.
- Dowson’s analysis found higher critic scores were associated with higher box-office sales, despite industry experts describing critics as relatively unimportant beside word of mouth and social-media buzz; he cited an A24 documentary about Elizabeth Holmes as a recent hit with a 98% Rotten Tomatoes score.
- Dowson said global box-office spending was about $25 billion this year, up roughly 13% from last year, even as revenue remained below pre-pandemic levels.
Is Running From Trump Enough to Save Republicans on Tuesday? • Oct 28
- Israel’s election count showed neither Benjamin Netanyahu nor the opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot had secured a parliamentary majority; Arab parties recorded their strongest showing ever and may be pivotal to forming a government.
- Israel’s election was widely viewed as a referendum on Netanyahu and his far-right coalition, the first national vote since Hamas’s October 7 assault; turnout reached a record high.
Also discussed on this episode: (16)
Elections (16)
- David Bessie calls himself an anti-MAGA, center-right Republican who retired to Maine three years ago; he says Trump’s presidencies have been disastrous and the Republican Party corrupt, self-dealing, and incompetent.
- David Bessie criticizes Democrats for Biden-era immigration policy, union influence, and relying on spending rather than problem-solving; he also thinks the party is moving further left instead of toward the center.
- David Bessie sees Susan Collins as thoughtful and willing to cross party lines, but worries her reelection could help MAGA Republicans; his ideal Senate would be tied 50-50, leaving Collins as a swing vote.
- Jess Bidgood says Chuck Schumer backed Janet Mills against Collins, but Maine Democrats gravitated to Graham Platner before his campaign collapsed after a rape accusation; Troy Jackson became the replacement despite limited statewide electoral experience.
- Jess Bidgood describes Collins’s pre-Trump brand as pragmatic governance, bipartisan work, and bringing federal money to Maine; Collins says funding helped a Bangor manufacturing plant that will create 75 jobs.
- Jess Bidgood says Collins has kept distance from Trump and often breaks with Republicans, but Democrats argue her dissent rarely blocks his priorities; they point to her Kavanaugh vote and her vote advancing the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
- Jess Bidgood says Collins’s moderate reputation, constituent-focused spending, and occasional breaks with Trump keep her competitive despite strong national headwinds; Democrats have won Maine’s popular vote in at least the last three presidential elections.
- Jess Bidgood says John E. Sununu is campaigning in New Hampshire against the Iran war and Canada tariffs, while distancing himself from Trump; Sununu says he has never met the president.
- New Hampshire remains a difficult Senate state for Republicans: Democrats won recent races by wide margins, and a New York Times-Siena poll had Sununu trailing Chris Pappas by about five points after an earlier poll put Sununu ahead by a couple.
- Jess Bidgood says Collins and Sununu are testing a route to victory through independents, moderate Republicans, and Democrats willing to cross party lines, rather than relying only on MAGA turnout.
- Ashley Hinson shifted from promising to be Trump’s strongest Senate ally to running ads about bipartisan work, but Jess Bidgood says Hinson lacks Collins’s long record of independence.
- Florida Representative Maria Elvira Salazar publicly warned Trump that immigration enforcement had gone too far, arguing Hispanic voters felt betrayed; her district is 70 percent Hispanic.
- Kansas Republican Roger Marshall has criticized an ICE raid’s impact on farmers and pushed back on Trump’s threat to a Canadian aircraft maker, while still urging Trump voters to turn out; Democrat Adam Hamilton is courting Republicans frustrated with tariffs, diesel costs, and farm policy.
- Jess Bidgood says Democrat James Talarico has led Ken Paxton in multiple Texas polls, despite Trump’s endorsement of Paxton; the result could test whether Trump’s backing can still carry a flawed candidate in a deep-red state.
- Jess Bidgood says Collins winning while Paxton loses could give Republicans permission to distance themselves from Trump, though Trump would retain fundraising power and influence over the party apparatus and RNC.
- Ohio Governor Mike DeWine condemned a Vivek Ramaswamy campaign ad that used his opponent’s mother to attack her, showing that some pre-Trump Republicans still challenge the party’s newer political style.
The Election That Will Define Israel’s Future • Oct 22
- David Halpinger says the election pits two blocs that each have roughly half the country behind them, and many voters see the result as existential. Israelis are focused on democracy, the social contract, fair military service, and the character of the Jewish state; Palestinian statehood is largely off the campaign agenda.
- Netanyahu’s proposed 2023 judicial overhaul triggered protests by hundreds of thousands, who feared it would weaken the judiciary, described as the main check on the government and Knesset. The dispute preceded October 7th and deepened fears that internal division had left Israel vulnerable.
- Netanyahu rejects responsibility for the October 7th failure, arguing he did not receive a phone call early enough to respond. The opposition says it will establish a National Commission of Inquiry, while Netanyahu refuses one that could investigate what went wrong.
- Netanyahu campaigns as the leader who can protect Israel and points to military operations since October 7th, including attacks on Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, exploding pagers targeting Hezbollah operatives, and wars with Iran. He also cites U.S. support, including American participation in an attack on Iran.
- Netanyahu attributes Israel’s growing isolation to antisemitism, Muslim immigration in Europe, and Qatari funding of anti-Israel academics, rather than Israeli policy. He describes Israel as a Sparta that may need to make its own weapons, while relying heavily on the Trump administration for U.S. support.
- Gadi Eisenkott presents himself as a unifying alternative to Netanyahu and draws on a career as a well-liked military chief of staff. Born in Tiberias to Moroccan immigrant parents and raised in working-class Eilat, he is a Mizrahi Jew, a background with no precedent among Israeli prime ministers.
- Eisenkott entered government after October 7th, then clashed with Netanyahu over whether to make a hostage deal or continue the war. His 25-year-old son, a reservist, was killed in a tunnel explosion in December 2023; a nephew died the same day, and another nephew was killed nearly a year later.
- Eisenkott quit Netanyahu’s government in June 2024 and later formed his own party. His campaign promises accountability, shared responsibility for military service, and an end to Netanyahu’s avoidance of an inquiry; he has contrasted his family’s losses with the limited military service of Netanyahu’s sons.
- Israeli voters choose a party, not a prime minister, and parties then compete to assemble a governing coalition. With polls close, the result could be inconclusive; Eisenkott’s allies have discussed passing laws without forming a government to bar candidates facing trial or impose term limits that could affect Netanyahu.
- Opposition voters describe despair and consider leaving; Halpinger says more Jews left Israel than arrived during the last couple of years, reversing a long-running pattern of net immigration. Netanyahu’s supporters see the election as a chance to consolidate right-wing control of institutions, while emigrants also weigh rising antisemitism abroad.
Also discussed on this episode: (6)
War (2)
- The prolonged war has put unusual strain on reservists, families, and employers; some soldiers have served for 100 days at a time. David Halpinger says ultra-Orthodox men remain broadly resistant to military service despite the end of their exemption, while their parties support Netanyahu’s coalition and receive subsidies.
- The closing report said the United States and Israel had developed plans to strike Iran again after the U.S. midterm elections. Possible targets include Iran’s energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and missile and drone arsenal.
Israel (3)
- Netanyahu opposed recent arrests of ultra-Orthodox men accused of draft evasion, saying recruitment should proceed without coercion and promising a meaningful draft law if reelected. Critics argue he will not risk losing ultra-Orthodox coalition partners to enforce service requirements.
- Eisenkott supports working with the Trump administration on Gaza reconstruction and a settlement that removes Hamas from government, by political or military means. In the West Bank, he proposes restoring security control, moving administration out from under Smotrich and police out from under Ben-Gvir, and evacuating illegal settlements in areas reserved for Palestinians under the Oslo Accords.
- Eisenkott does not propose Palestinian sovereignty soon; he says a permanent settlement remains far off but argues Palestinians should have reason to hope. He treats settler violence as a problem Israel created and says the immediate task is restoring the security regime that previously restrained it.
Russia (1)
- The closing news report said President Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff thanked Vladimir Putin after Russia released American teacher Stephen James Hubbard, held for more than four years on charges the State Department called fabricated. Russia had accused Hubbard of being a Ukrainian mercenary and sentenced him to a penal colony.