Netanyahu’s election deadlock turns on Arab votes

Elections (9)

• The hosts said Trump canceled planned campaign stops in Kansas and Minnesota, then reversed course and scheduled rallies in Iowa and Kansas. Republican sources told the Washington Sun the rallies may be hurting candidates; polls showed Democrat Hamilton leading in Kansas, though the Washington Post warned its own poll had serious sampling problems.
• J.D. Vance answered a young voter's question about housing costs with a joke about Ohio politician John Husted, then touted a bipartisan bill restricting Wall Street home purchases that Trump had vetoed. The hosts said the exchange showed Vance ignoring the voter's concern and echoing Trump's campaign style.
• Vivek Ramaswamy’s campaign used an ad featuring Amy Acton’s estranged mother to attack Acton, then cut the ad from a minute to 30 seconds before removing it. The hosts said court records contradicted the mother’s claim that the family never lived in a tent and criticized the campaign for exploiting a visibly unwell woman and retraumatizing the family.
• Michigan Chronicle reporter Samuel Robinson said Abdul El-Sayed had momentum and expected overwhelming Black support in Detroit, while acknowledging some Republicans would vote for El-Sayed over his positions on Israel and Gaza. Robinson expected turnout to exceed the 2018 non-incumbent election and said early-vote returns could take until 2 or 3 a.m. to count.
• Robinson said Israel and Gaza are especially salient for Michigan Jewish and Muslim voters, but not the top issue for all voters. He described tension between some Black and Arab communities, warned that Arab American voters may be stereotyped through local disputes, and said Mike Rogers's campaign faced backlash over anti-Muslim rhetoric from some allies.
• Mai Vang and Angela Gonzalez-Torres challenged Democratic incumbents in California, with Vang saying AIPAC-aligned groups spent heavily against her over her Gaza ceasefire advocacy. Vang said Doris Matsui had loaned her campaign $7 million; Gonzalez-Torres said Jimmy Gomez had accepted substantial AIPAC support and used congressional funds for campaign mailers.
• Vang said Sacramento's district had shifted from a Democratic advantage of 22 points to 7 after Proposition 50, and described building a campaign with more than 1,000 volunteers. Gonzalez-Torres said DSA-LA helped organize canvassing and community campaigns; Vang cited a 700-person canvass organized with Sacramento DSA and UAW.
• California candidates said federal election probes and subpoenas were being used to cast doubt on voting, while a judge rejected an effort to block ballots from roughly 20,000 people alleged to be noncitizens. Vang said 22% of ballots had been returned in her district and urged eligible voters not to be intimidated.
• The hosts discussed two election tactics: a Texas Republican women's group sent students flyers urging gender transition to provoke trans panic, while Alaska's ballot-name controversy drew scrutiny over possible links to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and Mary Peltola's campaign. Emily said deceptive tactics can deepen public distrust in elections regardless of party.

Custody (1)

• Binance disclosed that an attacker may have compromised a DevOps engineer’s laptop, gained access to withdrawal systems, and redirected a hot-wallet transaction through Ethereum’s EIP-7702 mechanism. The hosts reported that roughly $6.3 billion was stolen across blockchains in under 20 minutes, about $3 billion was frozen, and North Korean hackers were suspected.

AI Infrastructure (1)

• The hosts described a widening cyber risk: an AI agent reportedly accessed classified government systems through a contractor, while freezer systems were hacked at military commissaries and French grocery stores. They said six bases experienced freezer failures as the Pentagon prepared bases to operate without outside supplies for 90 days.

Big Tech (1)

• Alphabet said AI Mode was generating less advertising revenue than traditional search, even as Google increased monetization pressure on advertisers through broader matching of search terms. Alphabet spent $51.4 billion on capital investment in the third quarter, roughly two-thirds on servers and network equipment, while DoorDash had received only about 200 orders through Meta’s Muse AI.

Markets (1)

• The hosts linked a broad tech-stock selloff to weak earnings and questioned whether AI investment had become a bubble. They cited U.S. third-quarter growth of 3.4%, with 12.7% growth in nonresidential fixed investment and nearly 0.9 percentage points of GDP growth from information-processing equipment, while the S&P 500 remained heavily concentrated in major technology firms.

Health (1)

• Vang said she would prioritize restoring Medicaid and food-assistance cuts, then pursue oversight of the administration; Gonzalez-Torres emphasized cash assistance, immigrant protections, and long-term cost-of-living relief. Both backed organizing for Medicare for All and getting corporate money out of politics, while Vang also named abolishing ICE as a voter demand.

Media (1)

• Ryan said John Kiriakou has blamed journalist Matthew Cole for helping expose him after Kiriakou disclosed CIA torture, though Ryan had no firsthand knowledge of that case. Ryan said Cole's handling of Reality Winner's document was a reporting mistake, but prosecutors had other evidence linking Winner to the leak; the episode reinforced the need to protect sources and limit document details.

Israel (1)

• Tarnopolsky says Netanyahu normalized anti-Arab rhetoric: election-day campaigning she describes as illegal drew only a small fine in an earlier cycle, while cabinet minister Itamar Ben-Gvir had 13 hate-crime and terror convictions.

Immigration (1)

• Juan David Rojas says Flavio Bolsonaro left Brazil after Justice Alexandre de Moraes ordered his passport surrendered; Rojas described a route through Argentina and Ecuador to Miami, where Marco Rubio said the Trump administration would provide asylum and visas.

Corruption (2)

• Rojas says Brazil’s Supreme Court has amassed outsized authority: individual justices can investigate, rule, and direct police enforcement. He argues that court power has become politicized and that reform is needed, citing a reported $50 million payment to Moraes from a banker tied to figures across political camps.
• The report adds a rape allegation from Swiss model Beatrice Kuehl, who says Trump promised visa and NYU help before assaulting her; Emily notes that James Patterson’s 2017 book had already discussed Epstein’s NYU connections, challenging the report’s claim that the link was not public.

Censorship (1)

• Rojas condemns censorship and due-process violations regardless of which side benefits, while saying Bolsonaro’s coup effort was serious; he cited military chiefs’ testimony that Bolsonaro sought a coup, alongside cases of people jailed without trial.

Elections (4)

• Rojas says Brazil extended voting by two hours for the first time, but the roughly 30,000 affected voters could not explain Lula’s four-million-vote win; Trump called the election’s tabulation strange while saying he liked Lula.
• Rojas says Lula’s victory came despite strong street support for him, while Bolsonaro’s party won a landmark congressional result; Lula campaigned pragmatically on crime, energy, Amazon development, and oil, and Rojas warned that Trump’s regional standing had fallen.
• The House Democratic report alleges Trump participated in Epstein’s abuse of young women and says federal officials suppressed evidence; Emily says the report links earlier allegations to Epstein, while Ryan Grimm recommends a special counsel led by Thomas Massie.
• Democrats are using Epstein-file votes in Senate ads, arguing Republicans protected donors and concealed abuse; Ryan Grimm says the issue can mobilize Democrats and independents while depressing Republican turnout, and cited at least $20 million in Senate ad spending.

Society (2)

• The report also recounts allegations from Stacey Williams, Jill Harth, and Ivana Trump, plus claims involving underage girls; the accounts differ in severity, and Harth later called her allegations embellished and said she might vote for Trump.
• Other accounts in the report describe Maxwell presenting women to Trump, Epstein’s birthday-book joke about selling a 20-year-old to Trump for $22,500, Maria Farmer’s account of Trump mistaking her for a younger girl, and a Russian model’s later flight with Maxwell and Prince Andrew.

Middle East (2)

• Trita Parsi says Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan sent senior officials to Tehran seeking help with the Houthis, but their meeting produced only a pledge to keep talking. The Houthis demand an end to Saudi Arabia’s air blockade before stopping attacks, and Parsi says Iran will not pressure them to abandon that demand.
• Parsi says the Saudis reportedly offered the Houthis $1 billion, but the Houthis want a strategic concession, not a payment. He compares their blockade demand with Iran’s own insistence that the U.S. lift its blockade as a condition for a ceasefire.

Iran (1)

• Parsi says Iran considered restarting the conflict shortly before the U.S. midterms to shock markets and leave Trump little time to respond, but he no longer sees that as the likely choice. He says Iran may wait because Trump has repeatedly threatened action and then backed down.

Israel (1)

• Parsi expects Israel’s security approach toward Iran and the Palestinians to change little after one election, though a Gadi Eisenkot government could complicate coordination with Trump. He says Eisenkot’s challenge to Netanyahu’s nuclear warnings could weaken the repeated claim that Iran is weeks from a bomb.

Elections (9)

• Logan Phillips says the available House polling points to a worse environment for Republicans than expected, despite a shortage of nonpartisan district polls. The 14-poll set showed a nearly 23-point Democratic shift in North Carolina’s 11th District, but only a 2-point shift in Pennsylvania’s 1st.
• Phillips says North Carolina’s early vote is much more Democratic than in recent elections, and the open seat in NC-11 adds voter frustration after incumbent Chuck Edwards withdrew over ethical issues. He attributes Republican weakness in Texas districts to underperformance with Latino voters.
• Phillips says aggressive mid-decade redistricting has put more Republican-held seats at risk and left incumbents with voters they do not know. He argues the maps can look corrupt to voters and may give Democrats an incentive to redraw districts when they gain state-level power.
• Phillips says Republican outside spending in supposedly safe districts signals real concern, though some cases may reflect an incumbent’s nerves. He singled out Steve Scalise’s R+38 district, where he suspected allies were spending an extra $5 million as insurance.
• Democrats are expanding their target map into districts including Arkansas’ 2nd, Colorado’s 3rd, Florida’s 27th, New York’s 21st, Nevada’s 2nd and Tennessee’s 9th. Phillips says Republicans have also dropped some targets, including Tom Suozzi’s district, where he views Suozzi as a strong incumbent.
• Phillips says voter dissatisfaction with Trump is the main driver of Democratic gains, with prices, tariffs and diesel costs hurting rural areas and Latino communities especially exposed to economic pressure. He also cites backlash to immigration enforcement and weak candidates as factors in individual races.
• Elon Musk has put hundreds of millions of dollars into the midterms, especially in Texas and Ohio, where Phillips says the spending can backfire by spotlighting billionaire influence. Texas Democrats are using Musk’s spending in ads, and Gina Hinojosa obtained emails between Musk and Greg Abbott for potential campaign use.
• Phillips says in-state grassroots fundraising is more predictive than super PAC spending because it reflects candidate quality and brings candidates cheaper rates. He points to Democratic fundraising strength in Texas, Kansas, Michigan and Ohio, while heavy outside spending can signal that a candidate such as Ken Paxton is in trouble.
• Phillips says early voting looks strong for Democrats in North Carolina, Georgia and Iowa, including strong Black turnout in North Carolina and Georgia. Michigan is flat or slightly weaker than 2022, while Texas turnout is high but its partisan meaning is unclear and may give Democrats less turnout advantage.

Elections (5)

• Krystal said Barack Obama’s support for Abdul El-Sayed and Medicare for All marks a shift from defending party establishment power toward accepting the party’s leftward direction. Ryan said El-Sayed framed the Affordable Care Act as a starter home, making broader coverage its next step.
• Ryan said New York Governor Kathy Hochul saw the energy behind Zohran Mamdani’s movement firsthand during a public outing where residents flocked to Mamdani, not Hochul. Ryan argued that Mamdani’s popularity and Obama’s support for progressive candidates signal a new phase for Democrats.
• Donald Trump attacked Obama’s support for Abdul El-Sayed with anti-Muslim language, calling El-Sayed a jihadist and urging Michigan voters to back Mike Rogers. Krystal called Trump’s remarks about Somali immigrants racist after Trump claimed they avoid work and steal.
• Mike Rogers refused to say whether he identifies as a MAGA Republican during recent interviews, according to Ryan. Trump campaigned for Rogers in Michigan, while Krystal questioned whether the endorsement would help a candidate who appeared uncomfortable embracing MAGA.
• Ryan said early-voting data showed stronger Democratic enthusiasm, including more first-time or infrequent voters, while Krystal cautioned that party registration cannot show how independents or Republican defectors will vote. Florida data showed 80,000 Democrats and 120,000 Republicans had already voted who voted on Election Day in 2024.

AI Infrastructure (1)

• Ryan said data centers have become a political liability because voters living closer to them are more likely to support Democrats, despite many facilities being located in rural areas. Trump defended Elon Musk’s planned Memphis data centers by emphasizing jobs and potential profits.

Energy (6)

• Gas prices jumped sharply in Midwestern battleground states just before early voting, adding pressure on Republicans. Michigan’s average rose from $4.44 to $4.77 in two days, while Ohio prices climbed 39 cents; Michigan households were paying nearly $650 more, according to CNN.
• Trump said the United States was making enormous sums from the Iran conflict even as households faced higher fuel costs, and said he did not care if that angered voters. Krystal argued the beneficiaries were oil executives and shareholders, not consumers paying more at the pump.
• Oil analyst Brett Erickson said the White House’s claim that Iran loses $500 million daily to the U.S. blockade was fabricated. He said the Foundation for Defense of Democracies estimated $435 million daily, including $139 million from oil exports, but Iran had sold stored oil at elevated prices before its seaborne supply began running low.
• Brett Erickson said the war and shipping risks pushed Brent crude to $117.40, diesel into the mid-$6 range, and gasoline to $4.29 a gallon. Chinese imports had fallen by 1.5 million barrels per day, but replacing lost Iranian supply could require roughly 2 million additional barrels daily from other producers.
• Brett Erickson said Iran’s oil wells would not explode from being shut in, rejecting Donald Trump’s claim that they would fail within two weeks. Iran had shut wells during COVID and restored production without notable problems; current output had been reduced toward domestic needs and available exports.
• A Pentagon plan described by Fox News would prepare every major U.S. base to operate for 90 days without civilian power, fuel, water, or outside supply chains. Ryan said the administration had weakened energy security by gutting the Inflation Reduction Act, which funded energy projects including batteries and renewables.

Safety (1)

• Krystal and Ryan warned that AI tools are making sophisticated cyberattacks accessible to low-skill actors, with a PHP vulnerability reportedly exposed by a simple prompt and affecting 70% of websites. They urged basic security and household preparedness; the U.K. prime minister separately advised people to keep food and water at home.

Media (1)

• Tucker Carlson says U.S. coverage largely ignored Canada’s election despite Canada’s long border and major trade relationship, while Israeli election coverage drew intense attention.

Trade (1)

• Tucker Carlson argues Israel has little economic importance to the United States: it has fewer than 10 million people, limited trade, and receives substantial U.S. support.

Middle East (2)

• Tucker Carlson says a video from an unidentified West Bank town showed masked settlers beating an elderly American citizen, throwing rocks at a home, and burning the family’s car; the source withheld his identity over fears for relatives’ safety.
• Tucker Carlson says settler attacks in the occupied territories are escalating and that Israeli authorities have sometimes distanced themselves only after video evidence emerged; he describes settlers as operating with impunity.

Elections (1)

• Jeffrey Sachs says U.S. opinion has turned against backing Israel’s conduct in Gaza, especially among young people, and predicts candidates who promise to end U.S. support for the wars will have an electoral advantage.

War (1)

• Sachs links U.S. wars in Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Iran to Netanyahu’s regional agenda, arguing the conflicts brought enormous costs, instability, and casualties; he says the Iran war began during negotiations and killed Iranian leaders gathered to discuss diplomacy.

Religion (1)

• Sachs says early Zionism was largely secular and that religious opposition to Zionism persisted among many rabbis; he argues a militant, nationalist religious politics grew from the 1970s onward and was distinct from rabbinic ethics.

Nation-State (1)

• Sachs says Netanyahu’s Likud has rejected Palestinian statehood since its founding and argues that demographic parity across the territory makes either equal rights in one state or a negotiated two-state arrangement unavoidable.

Diplomacy (1)

• Sachs argues Israel’s reliance on U.S. backing will face growing pressure as Americans reject funding its wars; he warns against proposed U.S.-Israeli security integration and says Israel will have to reckon with equal Arab and Jewish claims to the territory.

Elections (7)

• Pfeffer said Netanyahu was punished less than polls predicted despite the October 7 attack and the strategic and intelligence failures on his watch; Israel’s intelligence and security chiefs had resigned, leaving Netanyahu as the senior figure still facing voters.
• Manuel’s Tavern in Atlanta is a neighborhood political gathering place known as a Democratic bar; its owners have hosted politicians including Al Gore, Bill Clinton, and Jimmy Carter, and John Ossoff held an early fundraiser in a small back room.
• Rebecca Jackson reported that Ossoff leads in every major poll and has raised more money than any other candidate nationwide this cycle, while running in a state Trump carried by two points in 2024.
• Ossoff pairs a restrained Senate record on foster care and military housing with combative speeches attacking Trump-era corruption; his team cuts his self-written remarks into viral Instagram clips and invokes civil-rights leader John Lewis to frame a broader vision.
• Ossoff’s only controversial Senate vote was against blocking federal funds for schools that allow transgender women to compete in women’s sports; his constituent work also includes meeting the family of Amber Thurman, who died after traveling from Georgia to North Carolina for an abortion.
• Two Republican mayors in rural South Georgia endorsed Ossoff in August, saying a candidate can rise above party lines; Jackson said his crossover appeal matters in a state that remains more Republican than Democratic.
• Ossoff became the first millennial senator and has said he does not want to run for president, but Jackson said a strong Georgia result could increase pressure from Democrats looking for a candidate who can win.

Media (5)

• Doug Dowson found that critics and audiences differ more in which films they review than in how they rate films: critics favor documentaries, foreign films, and low-budget movies, while audiences gravitate toward action and science fiction.
• Dowson’s data showed critics’ and audiences’ ratings correlated at about 0.6 from 2005 to 2016; agreement later fell, largely because of a handful of popular big-budget action and family films, then began recovering around 2022.
• Dowson offered franchise fatigue as a possible reason critics diverged from audiences over superhero films, then suggested the pandemic’s shock and lower cinema revenues may have pushed critics to reconnect with moviegoers; he said ratings now align more closely than at any point in the dataset.
• Dowson’s analysis found higher critic scores were associated with higher box-office sales, despite industry experts describing critics as relatively unimportant beside word of mouth and social-media buzz; he cited an A24 documentary about Elizabeth Holmes as a recent hit with a 98% Rotten Tomatoes score.
• Dowson said global box-office spending was about $25 billion this year, up roughly 13% from last year, even as revenue remained below pre-pandemic levels.

Elections (16)

• David Bessie calls himself an anti-MAGA, center-right Republican who retired to Maine three years ago; he says Trump’s presidencies have been disastrous and the Republican Party corrupt, self-dealing, and incompetent.
• David Bessie criticizes Democrats for Biden-era immigration policy, union influence, and relying on spending rather than problem-solving; he also thinks the party is moving further left instead of toward the center.
• David Bessie sees Susan Collins as thoughtful and willing to cross party lines, but worries her reelection could help MAGA Republicans; his ideal Senate would be tied 50-50, leaving Collins as a swing vote.
• Jess Bidgood says Chuck Schumer backed Janet Mills against Collins, but Maine Democrats gravitated to Graham Platner before his campaign collapsed after a rape accusation; Troy Jackson became the replacement despite limited statewide electoral experience.
• Jess Bidgood describes Collins’s pre-Trump brand as pragmatic governance, bipartisan work, and bringing federal money to Maine; Collins says funding helped a Bangor manufacturing plant that will create 75 jobs.
• Jess Bidgood says Collins has kept distance from Trump and often breaks with Republicans, but Democrats argue her dissent rarely blocks his priorities; they point to her Kavanaugh vote and her vote advancing the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
• Jess Bidgood says Collins’s moderate reputation, constituent-focused spending, and occasional breaks with Trump keep her competitive despite strong national headwinds; Democrats have won Maine’s popular vote in at least the last three presidential elections.
• Jess Bidgood says John E. Sununu is campaigning in New Hampshire against the Iran war and Canada tariffs, while distancing himself from Trump; Sununu says he has never met the president.
• New Hampshire remains a difficult Senate state for Republicans: Democrats won recent races by wide margins, and a New York Times-Siena poll had Sununu trailing Chris Pappas by about five points after an earlier poll put Sununu ahead by a couple.
• Jess Bidgood says Collins and Sununu are testing a route to victory through independents, moderate Republicans, and Democrats willing to cross party lines, rather than relying only on MAGA turnout.
• Ashley Hinson shifted from promising to be Trump’s strongest Senate ally to running ads about bipartisan work, but Jess Bidgood says Hinson lacks Collins’s long record of independence.
• Florida Representative Maria Elvira Salazar publicly warned Trump that immigration enforcement had gone too far, arguing Hispanic voters felt betrayed; her district is 70 percent Hispanic.
• Kansas Republican Roger Marshall has criticized an ICE raid’s impact on farmers and pushed back on Trump’s threat to a Canadian aircraft maker, while still urging Trump voters to turn out; Democrat Adam Hamilton is courting Republicans frustrated with tariffs, diesel costs, and farm policy.
• Jess Bidgood says Democrat James Talarico has led Ken Paxton in multiple Texas polls, despite Trump’s endorsement of Paxton; the result could test whether Trump’s backing can still carry a flawed candidate in a deep-red state.
• Jess Bidgood says Collins winning while Paxton loses could give Republicans permission to distance themselves from Trump, though Trump would retain fundraising power and influence over the party apparatus and RNC.
• Ohio Governor Mike DeWine condemned a Vivek Ramaswamy campaign ad that used his opponent’s mother to attack her, showing that some pre-Trump Republicans still challenge the party’s newer political style.