Stevens backs Rogers, but El-Sayed leads in Michigan

Elections (15)

• Voters described the election as a referendum on Trump, while others focused on fears about national identity, Sharia law, and rising prices, including a complaint that a bag of chips costs $4.
• Voters named sharply different Senate choices, including Abdul El-Sayed, Mary Peltola, Susan Collins, and Troy Jackson; some framed their votes as choosing the lesser of two evils or backing a candidate despite reservations.
• After two years of campaigning and more than $11 billion in advertising, the 2026 midterms were set for November 3, with roughly 50 million Americans already having voted early.
• Nate Cohn said Democrats were overwhelming favorites to take the House, while the Senate hinged on flipping at least two states Trump had won by double digits. The Times’ final polls showed Democrats ahead in all seven likeliest Senate battlegrounds.
• Nate Cohn’s first scenario had Democrats winning the House narrowly while Republicans held the Senate and most Trump-plus-10 districts. Republican-favoring redistricting raised the bar for Democrats, who would need to win in states such as Kansas or Iowa to flip the chamber.
• In that first scenario, early-counted ballots could make Democrats appear to lead Florida and South Carolina before Election Day votes arrived. Cohn warned that this blue mirage could reverse if Republican voters turned out on Election Day.
• Nate Cohn said the second scenario would bring a large Democratic House win but leave Republicans with the Senate after close contests in red states. Maine and Alaska could take days to resolve because of slow counting and ranked-choice voting.
• Cohn’s third scenario had Democrats winning the Senate by only a few seats, with close results in states such as Alaska and Ohio deciding the outcome. He put the possible Democratic majority at 51 to 54 seats.
• Cohn’s fourth scenario was a Democratic landslide: Democrats could win 250 House seats and the popular vote by double digits, while taking the Senate comfortably. He described major wins in Texas and Kansas and possible upsets in South Carolina, Florida, or Mississippi.
• Nate Cohn said the polls made the fourth scenario, or something close to it, the likeliest outcome, even though he found a landslide hard to imagine in a polarized era. Republican spending in Texas and Trump’s repeated South Carolina visits showed both parties treated those states as competitive.
• Cohn said pollsters were weighting Trump supporters more heavily than in 2016 or 2020 and the Times checked state samples against registered-Republican counts. The Times also tried to distinguish different kinds of Trump supporters; its final polls were three points bluer than its 2022 and 2024 methodology.
• Cohn said early voting looked strongly Democratic, including in Texas, where two-thirds of ballots had already been cast. Times data showed young, Latino, and previously nonvoting Texans turning out in significant numbers, but he cautioned that Republicans could still counter on Election Day, as they did in 2020.
• Cohn said Democrats leading in five states carried by the other party by double digits would defy recent polarization: no party had won even one such seat in 16 years. He said a Democratic landslide could repudiate Trump, shift state-government control, and mark a turning point in his political influence.
• Trump used his final full day of campaigning to rally Republicans at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool and called Democratic candidates extreme and dangerous. Abdul El-Sayed presented the election as a referendum on Trump and mocked Trump’s repeated difficulty saying his name.
• The Times reported that early voting outpaced the previous midterm cycle in every major Senate battleground, with polls opening for in-person voting at 6:00 a.m. on Election Day.

Immigration (10)

• Rio Grande Valley builders who backed Trump over immigration enforcement now say raids are hurting their businesses and changing their votes. Mario Guerrero says many expected agents to target violent criminals, not longtime workers.
• The Valley’s four counties are heavily Latino, politically purple, and economically tied to both cross-border commerce and Border Patrol. Residents described immigration as part of daily life, making national policy shifts immediate and personal.
• Residents described Biden-era arrivals as overwhelming local services and fueling perceptions of unfairness, but some claims were incomplete: McAllen property crime rose slightly in 2022 while overall crime fell, and the border-processing backlog predated the surge.
• A, an undocumented framer brought to the United States as a child, was arrested despite having an immigration court case underway and attending hearings. After detention and an immigration bond release, he returned to work the next day to catch up on rent and bills.
• A’s release did not resolve his legal uncertainty: his final hearing went against him, and his family is appealing. He says his daughter’s wish to visit the San Antonio Zoo is blocked by a checkpoint because he fears arrest if he travels there.
• Mario Guerrero and the South Texas Builders Association organized meetings, contacted local and federal officials, and traveled to Washington to press for worksite protections and a way to retain experienced workers. Builders also added fences and cameras, while advising crews not to run if agents arrived.
• An ICE official told builders that federal agents did not need warrants at sites that were not fully enclosed and that prior administrations’ immigration paperwork would not be treated as valid. A federal court in Alabama later ruled warrantless searches of construction sites illegal.
• After a brief slowdown in raids, Congress passed the Secure America Act and provided ICE and Border Patrol additional funding; more than 200 people were arrested in the Valley in one day that July. A framer, Lorenzo Salgado Araújo, was shot and killed by an ICE agent in Houston that month.
• Builders described growing fear of racial profiling, including citizens carrying passports and one worker being stopped and asked for papers. Several STBA members said raids had changed their midterm votes; A said many contractors had voted for Trump despite relying on immigrant crews.
• Julio Carranza’s family moved between Reynosa and McAllen before settling in the Valley; he later left a special-education teaching job to sell homes and became a developer. Carranza says his success grew from the same inherited American-dream ambitions now threatened by raids.

Labor (5)

• Construction depends heavily on immigrant labor: the field employs nearly 30 percent immigrant workers nationally, with estimates of 40 to 50 percent in Texas and as many as 80 percent undocumented in the Valley, according to local industry figures.
• Mario Guerrero argues that citizens are not filling construction vacancies because the work is physically demanding and local schools do not teach trades such as framing, plumbing, HVAC, electrical work, or masonry. He says apprentices start at $15 an hour.
• A’s framing skills came from years of hands-on training with his father, from apprentice cleanup work to precise cuts and safe saw use. A builder estimated that a house contains 9,000 components, making experienced tradespeople hard to replace quickly.
• Raids have disrupted the construction pipeline: one builder who normally completed about 25 homes a year built 12 in 2025 and entered 2026 with contracts for only three. Suppliers reported cancellations, and one cement company laid off more than 100 workers before filing for bankruptcy.
• A says raids have left experienced framers scarce and raised their prices. For one 2,900-square-foot home, he quoted his usual rate as 50 per square foot, then said he charged 580 for the urgent job; he described the increase as supply and demand.

Education (1)

• The South Texas Builders Association is launching quarterly trade classes to replace some lost workers, starting with a planned cohort of 28 students. Mario Guerrero says the school will teach framing, concrete work, and carpentry, but acknowledges it cannot quickly replace the region’s experienced workforce.

Elections (18)

• Atlas Intel gave Democrats a 14-point generic-ballot lead. Krystal said that would imply roughly a 16-point swing from Trump’s 2024 popular-vote win and could put states such as Kansas, Nebraska, South Carolina, and Louisiana in play.
• Krystal compared the possible Democratic wave with 2018, when Democrats won the popular vote by more than eight points; she argued today’s higher fuel prices, unpopular war, and Trump’s economic unpopularity could produce a larger backlash.
• Emily argued that pollsters may be undercounting voters who backed Obama and Trump over affordability and opposition to new wars, then could switch parties because those same issues now hurt Republicans.
• The hosts and panelists differed on whether habitual Republicans would cross over or stay home. Ryan argued Trump’s broken promises on prices and wars, alongside the Epstein files, could demoralize Republican voters as well as push some toward Democrats.
• Ryan compared Trump’s vulnerability with Harry Truman’s 1946 midterm, when anger at the president helped Republicans break up the New Deal coalition; he said today’s stronger partisan loyalty makes the comparison imperfect.
• Krystal’s Senate map gave Democrats 53 seats, including wins in Ohio, North Carolina, Michigan, Maine, Alaska, Texas, and Kansas; she predicted Republicans would hold Iowa and Nebraska, while calling the overall result extraordinary.
• Saagar predicted Democrats would win Texas and Nebraska but lose Maine and Kansas, giving Democrats 51 seats, Republicans 48, and independents one; he cited Texas crossover voting and Nebraska’s close 2024 result.
• Emily backed Kansas and Ohio Democrats partly on candidate quality, but predicted Texas and Nebraska would stay Republican. She said the prospect of a competitive Sherrod Brown race in Ohio alone signals serious trouble for Republicans.
• Ryan’s wave scenario put states beyond the usual battlegrounds in play, including Montana, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and South Carolina; he stressed that his confidence varied and singled out Arkansas as especially uncertain.
• Panelists said candidate quality could make close races break from national trends: they cited Sherrod Brown’s strength in Ohio, Ken Paxton’s problems in Texas, and Republican nominees’ vulnerabilities in South Carolina and Mississippi.
• Krystal said Black turnout across the Deep South was surging after a Supreme Court decision disrupted majority-minority districts, potentially affecting races in Louisiana, Mississippi, and South Carolina.
• Panelists said Hispanic early voting in Texas was unusually strong, with many younger and first-time voters, and Saagar’s sources reported rural Republican weakness; they also said Florida Republicans were worried about early-vote patterns in the governor’s race.
• The panel warned against treating Kalshi and Polymarket election odds as reliable: research from Campaign for Accountability and Stop Gambling found the markets had not been very predictive during the 2026 primary cycle.
• Ryan said a Democratic Senate majority could face immediate pressure to stop funding the Iran war when government funding comes up in December; he said renewed combat operations could intensify calls for impeachment.
• Emily raised two unanswered questions in a Democratic Senate scenario: whether John Fetterman would caucus with Democrats if the chamber were tied, and where voters and lawmakers would stand on Chuck Schumer.
• Panelists criticized Stevens for invoking Israel and Black communities while endorsing Rogers, and said the appearance of people described as foreign agents at her event sharpened the controversy around his campaign.
• Krystal said recent Michigan polls showed El-Sayed winning 95 percent of Black voters and more Democrats unified behind him than Republicans behind Rogers; she said national coverage overstated Black dissatisfaction with El-Sayed.
• Panelists described Florida’s Senate and House contests as hard to assess because polling was sparse; they highlighted David Jolly, Angie Nixon, and Maria Elvira Salazar’s district as races to watch.

AI Infrastructure (1)

• Krystal argued that AI could eventually unite voters across party lines against data centers, job losses, and tech-company power; Saagar said a Fox News poll placed AI above immigration as a voter priority.

Iran (3)

• The Wall Street Journal reported U.S. warnings to Gulf states to prepare for renewed strikes on Iran, possibly targeting energy infrastructure. Axios reported Qatar’s proposal for UN inspections in exchange for limited sanctions relief; Iran rejected the terms.
• The host argued that Netanyahu’s caretaker status and Trump’s anticipated midterm losses could make renewed war more attractive to both leaders. The host said JD Vance had contacted Iranian officials, but judged a deal unlikely.
• A host cited oil above $110 per barrel and forecast national gasoline prices of at least $4.30 per gallon on Election Day, warning that renewed strikes could push prices higher.

Elections (8)

• Netanyahu accused Arab polling stations of election theft, alleging cash payments, threats, double identities, and ballot discrepancies. The host noted that Likud faces a separate Qatari bribery case and said Netanyahu has repeatedly cited security concerns to delay court hearings.
• Krystal argued that Israeli leaders and U.S. supporters celebrate Arab citizens’ voting when it bolsters Israel’s democratic image, then smear Arab voters when their turnout matters. She said an anti-Netanyahu coalition with Arab parties is politically blocked by Jewish-majority opposition.
• Krystal cited polling that found 80% of Jewish Israelis opposed a governing coalition with Arab parties. She said this undermines claims of equal political inclusion, especially given the lack of equal rights for Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza.
• Abdul El-Sayed said polls showed him leading Michigan’s Senate race by six or seven points, but he was campaigning as if ten points behind. He said voters focused on affordability, health care, corruption, and political chaos.
• Abdul El-Sayed said Michigan voters described spending $80 to fill a tank and struggling to afford groceries. He pointed to rising insurance premiums and utility rates, and blamed Trump’s tariffs, Iran war, and health-care cuts for worsening household costs.
• Abdul El-Sayed said seniors facing rising property taxes often rely on their children to keep their homes, while also backing more housing, zoning reform, and limits on speculation and short-term rentals. He blamed federal disinvestment for shifting infrastructure costs onto local taxpayers.
• Republicans and RFK Jr. attacked Abdul El-Sayed’s Muslim and Arab identity; RFK Jr. claimed Arabs produce no major scientific or literary achievements. Abdul, who said he holds two doctoral degrees and has published scientific research, called the remarks self-revealing bigotry.
• A poll cited by Krystal found 38% of voters would be less likely to support a Muslim candidate. Abdul El-Sayed said he expects Michigan voters to reject religious smears and focus instead on jobs, health care, clean air and water, and housing costs.

Israel (2)

• Mark Levin urged Israeli right-wing voters to turn out against leftists and Arabs, while Moshe Feinglin said Israel should judge foreign critics by its own religious standards. Krystal described this rhetoric as choosing Jewish ethno-national identity over democratic inclusion.
• The Jerusalem Post reported that Trump wants Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich removed from Israel’s government because settler violence undermines his regional vision. The host said Netanyahu could not form a government without them.

Immigration (1)

• Abdul El-Sayed said Biden and Harris should have enforced tougher border security and better tracked who entered the country. He distinguished border enforcement by Customs and Border Protection from ICE’s internal enforcement, which he said Trump has weaponized against the Constitution.

Health (1)

• Abdul El-Sayed defended access to health care as a rights issue, saying treatment decisions should rest with patients, doctors, and parents for minors. He called “defund the police” an inadequate slogan and backed law-enforcement staffing alongside behavioral-health response and violence-prevention programs.

AI Infrastructure (2)

• Abdul El-Sayed said data centers and AI raise both utility costs and control concerns, especially for young people and rural communities. He proposed democratic oversight, an AI regulator, limits on AI firing workers or denying care, union construction, water protections, and community power to reject projects.
• The host said a New Mexico hospital system had been hacked and noted Bill Gates’s warning that humanity may face its most chaotic 20 years. The transcript gave no details about the cyberattack or Gates’s reasoning.

Regulation (1)

• Abdul El-Sayed opposed banning sports betting but favored sharply limiting its advertising, placement, and ties to sports entertainment to reduce gambling harms. He said restrictions should protect people with problem gambling from targeted marketing.