03-10-2026Price:

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POLITICS

U.S. Energy Crisis Worsens Amid Rising Geopolitical Tensions

Tuesday, March 10, 2026 · from 4 podcasts
Peter St Onge PodcastNo Agenda ShowForward GuidanceBehind the Bastards
  • U.S. strikes against Iran disrupt China’s oil supply chain, potentially raising global prices.
  • The strategy aims to weaken China’s economy while reinforcing the dollar’s dominance.
  • Energy costs are set to rise in many markets, prompting shifts in alliances and purchasing behaviors.

The recent U.S. strike targeting Iran's leadership isn't merely a tactical military move; it's an economic maneuver aimed squarely at China. Peter St Onge argues that China relied heavily on discounted Iranian oil, which constituted about 90% of its imports from the nation. By removing Iran, the U.S. tightens the noose on China’s energy costs, which could directly impact its already struggling manufacturing sector.

As St Onge points out, Iran and Venezuela provided China with vital low-cost oil. Their removal from the equation forces China to compete for pricier Russian oil, exacerbating existing crises in the region. This scenario recalls Japan's rise to aggression in the 1940s when U.S. sanctions severely curtailed its oil supply, pushing it toward war.

This strategy reflects a broader economic shift beyond immediate military objectives. It underscores the 'petrodollar defense' theory, which holds that the U.S. maintains its currency's supremacy by punishing regimes that do not trade oil in dollars. By sidelining key non-dollar oil exporters, the U.S. signals a shift toward a stronger dollar - critical for managing its mounting national debt, currently estimated at $38 trillion.

The fallout from these geopolitical maneuvers is already evident. With China facing increased fuel costs, the global scramble to secure energy supplies has significant implications for other countries, including India and Europe, who might seek American energy as a superior alternative. This ongoing realignment in energy purchases could redefine international alliances while further pressuring global oil prices.

Ultimately, the stakes aren't just about energy - they're about currency and economic power. As geopolitical tensions rise, every move in this complex chess game could reshape market dynamics in ways that extend well beyond the battlefield.

Peter St Onge, Peter St Onge Podcast:

- The background is China has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the Ukraine war, gobbling up Russian oil and gas that used to go to Europe and getting it at a fat discount since it is sanctioned.

- Today, the most likely outcome is China has to outbid the other half of Russian oil.

Source Intelligence

What each podcast actually said

Peter St Onge Podcast
Peter St Onge Podcast

Ep 163 Weekly Roundup: Iran, China, and the Petrodollar • Mar 9

Also from this episode:

China (5)
  • Peter St Onge argues the U.S. strike on Iran's leadership was designed to cut off China's primary source of cheap, sanctioned oil, which was receiving 90% of Iran's exports.
  • Before the strike, Peter St Onge notes that 25% of China's oil imports came from Russia, Venezuela, and Iran, a share that had risen to 40% post-war, with half of that from Venezuela and Iran.
  • With Iran and Venezuela sanctioned off the dollar-based SWIFT system, Peter St Onge says China was buying their oil at a steep discount, building a crucial cheap energy buffer now lost.
  • Peter St Onge claims China must now compete globally for more expensive oil, outbidding others for the remaining half of Russian exports not already flowing its way, creating a severe cost shock.
  • Peter St Onge frames both the foreign energy shock and domestic deregulation as a concerted effort to reassert American economic primacy by strangling a rival's advantages and unshackling domestic industry.
Banking (1)
  • Peter St Onge connects the moves against Iran and Venezuela to petrodollar defense, arguing that neutralizing the two largest non-dollar oil exporters reinforces the dollar's role as the global reserve currency.
Fed (1)
  • Peter St Onge suggests U.S. policy may have pivoted from favoring a weak dollar for exports to needing a strong dollar to finance its own trillion-dollar deficits.
Regulation (2)
  • Peter St Onge calls the Trump EPA's repeal of the Obama-era CO2 endangerment finding the largest deregulation in history, estimating $1.3 trillion in direct savings.
  • Peter St Onge argues the EPA deregulation lowers energy costs, revives auto manufacturing, guts climate litigation, and could provide nearly $300 billion in annual growth benefits, aiding a domestic industrial renaissance.
WarTradeChinaEnergyRegulation
Behind the Bastards
Behind the Bastards

It Could Happen Here Weekly 222 • Mar 7

Also from this episode:

Society (7)
  • Danielle Kanter from the mutual aid collective Culture of Solidarity describes their work in Israel and Palestine as a political act challenging state systems.
  • The Culture of Solidarity collective operates in Israel and Palestine's Area C, directly resisting what they see as systemic oppression.
  • Culture of Solidarity refuses to operate as a neutral charity, explicitly tying aid to political education.
  • They intentionally avoid institutionalization, remaining a community-funded collective without salaries.
  • Kanter views the organization as one meant to be deleted, not perpetuated, working as an anti-institutional collective.
  • Some volunteers struggle with the stark political realities presented by the collective's framework.
  • Within the collective, questioning is seen as the necessary path forward despite the difficulty.
Health (2)
  • The group started during COVID-19 by rescuing food waste and distributing it to vulnerable communities in the West Bank.
  • The collective provides food security programs and culturally appropriate aid like diapers and baby formula.
Politics (5)
  • Kanter realized their efforts were not merely humanitarian but political because resource scarcity resulted from deliberate policy.
  • The organization connects food insecurity and community needs to Israeli policies of occupation and ethnic cleansing.
  • This approach forces Israeli volunteers to confront state narratives about the occupation and government actions.
  • Kanter admits this educational journey is challenging for volunteers, especially after the events of October 7th.
  • Kanter notes the difficulty of living in a society where many justify war crimes, describing it as a genocidal society.
Education (2)
  • Their work includes hosting events, debates, and workshops to educate participants about root causes of injustice.
  • She emphasizes that asking questions is the crucial first step toward unlearning entrenched beliefs.
WarMiddle EastCorruption
No Agenda Show
No Agenda Show

1848 - "Podcaster Down!" • Mar 5

Also from this episode:

Health (6)
  • Longtime No Agenda co-host John C. Dvorak is in the hospital for an unexpected double bypass surgery.
  • Mimi Dvorak announced John was sedated, intubated, and required the surgery tomorrow or the next day.
  • The need for the double bypass was an unexpected result following a routine blood test that sent Dvorak to the ER.
  • Dvorak has some fluid on his lungs that needs clearing, according to the summary.
  • Mimi Dvorak described John as a tough, active person despite his relatively insular lifestyle.
  • Doctors expect a relatively quick recovery, with most patients discharged within three to five days post-surgery.
Media (5)
  • Dvorak's wife, Mimi Dvorak, revealed his health crisis during a surprise co-hosting appearance.
  • Co-host Adam Curry learned Dvorak was hospitalized only hours before the show was scheduled to air.
  • Dvorak's surgery and recovery mean he will be off the show for several days, possibly longer.
  • The No Agenda Show will air best-of episodes curated from its archives during Dvorak's absence.
  • Adam Curry called on listeners and producers to help create new curated content from the show's archives.
Media
Forward Guidance
Forward Guidance

The AI Productivity Boom Is Here | Luigi Buttiglione • Mar 4

Also from this episode:

AI & Tech (4)
  • Luigi Buttiglione argues AI is a crucial driver behind recent U.S. productivity increases.
  • Buttiglione suggests AI is fundamentally reshaping the U.S. economy more as a boon than a bane.
  • Buttiglione connects the rise of AI with earlier technological revolutions that led to economic expansion.
  • He asserts sustained AI-driven productivity boosts will likely mirror past technological trend patterns.
Labor (4)
  • Concerns about AI leading to mass job loss are overstated, as it can expand overall economic wealth.
  • Unlike past technological shifts, AI is argued to complement human labor, expanding the economic pie.
  • He argues against viewing productivity increases solely through the lens of reduced job openings.
  • Buttiglione describes an AI substitution effect where machines perform more jobs, yet the overall economy gets richer.
Macro (5)
  • Recent spikes in U.S. productivity metrics align with the advent of AI technologies, not just efficient labor practices.
  • Buttiglione notes that productivity growth data cannot be isolated from broader economic dynamics.
  • Previous post-COVID productivity declines paved the way for the current surge linked to AI advancements.
  • The U.S. has historically seen growth from technological paradigm shifts, unlike Europe, which has missed the productivity boat.
  • The growing productivity gap between the U.S. and Europe amplifies the narrative of U.S. exceptionalism.
Fed (4)
  • Buttiglione warns policymakers must tread lightly with interest rate policy to avoid triggering dangerous asset bubbles.
  • Chasing lower interest rates in response to rising productivity could lead to asset price inflation.
  • He highlights the neutral interest rate, where savings equal investments, as a crucial benchmark for policymakers.
  • Falling below the neutral interest rate in a high-productivity environment is a key risk to avoid.