Trump begging China and France for warships is the sound of a strategy failing. Quincy Institute analyst Trita Parsi sees a president in the desperation phase of a conflict he cannot win. The strategic objective - free passage through the Strait of Hormuz - is controlled by Iran, not the U.S.
Iran holds the leverage. Major economies like India and France are negotiating directly with Tehran for safe passage, bypassing Washington. This gives Iran significant diplomatic power for the first time in decades. Trump's constrained bombing of Karg Island, sparing oil infrastructure, was likely forced by warnings of a suicidal global economic contraction. To Tehran, it signals weakness.
Iran's counterstrategy is economic escalation. After the U.S. strike, Iran hit a major oil depot in the UAE, aiming to drive up global prices and inflict pain. Analyst Robert Pape calls this an escalation trap. The U.S. military is already taking losses: five refueling planes damaged, a tanker crash killing six crew.
The Pentagon's response is a deployment of over 2,000 Marines and consideration of additional destroyers. Analysts view this as a step toward a potential ground invasion, as escorting ships through the strait leaves them vulnerable. Iran's asymmetric approach - using economic strain and targeted retaliation - continues to work, boxing Trump into a cycle of escalating military commitment without achieving the strategic goal.
The conflict's shock is global, with Asian nations curtailing school and work days due to fuel shortages. Leaks to the Wall Street Journal show U.S. military brass distancing themselves from a president who ignored warnings Iran would close the strait. Trump bet on swift capitulation; he faces an adversary with leverage and a world forced to deal with them.
Trita Parsi, Breaking Points:
- You're seeing the words of a man who actually has been defeated and who knows it.
- This is the desperation phase of this war at this point.
