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BITCOIN

Bitcoin's bottom takes months, not days

Tuesday, March 17, 2026 · from 5 podcasts, 9 episodes
What Bitcoin DidBitcoin And | Bitcoin & E…Rabbit Hole RecapBitcoin And | Bitcoin & E…Bitcoin And | Bitcoin & E…TFTC: A Bitcoin PodcastBTC SessionsBitcoin And | Bitcoin & E…What Bitcoin Did
  • Bitcoin survived a geopolitical shock without a crash, a sign the bear market is nearing its end.
  • On-chain metrics show Bitcoin is deeply undervalued, but historical cycles suggest bottoms form over months, not weeks.
  • A broader market crash could provide the final capitulation event needed to complete the cycle.

Bitcoin didn't crash when Iran attacked Israel. That's the signal the market is finally finding a floor.

According to Rational Root on What Bitcoin Did, the lack of a panic sell-off during a major geopolitical event is a positive indicator. The asset had already sold off significantly before the news, absorbing the shock. On-chain data, like the yearly RSI sitting at historic lows, confirms Bitcoin is undervalued.

Yet undervalued doesn't mean ready to rally. Rational Root argues the four-year cycle is still in play, and bottoms are processes, not points. They take months to form, often requiring a final wave of capitulation from weak hands.

That final shakeout could come from a traditional market collapse. A stock market crash, potentially triggered by election uncertainty, might be the event that flushes out the last sellers and sets the stage for the next bull run.

Rational Root, What Bitcoin Did:

- The fact that we didn't see a crash on that news is a positive sign.

- The market had already sold off before the news hit, so it was already priced in.

BTC MarketsAdoptionRegulation

Entities Mentioned

Alex FinnPerson
BasecampProduct
BinanceCompany
Bitcoin Policy InstituteCompany
Cash AppProduct
CoinbaseCompany
Netflixtrending
PolymarketCompany
SAS Miningtrending
search_result blocksTool
TetherCompany
USDCProduct

Source Intelligence

What each podcast actually said

What Bitcoin Did
What Bitcoin Did

Bitcoin is Undervalued, But the Bottom Isn't In Yet | Rational Root • Mar 15

  • Rational Root argues Bitcoin's failure to crash during the Iran conflict indicates the market is near the end of its bear phase, as the sell-off had already occurred before the geopolitical shock.
  • According to Rational Root, Bitcoin remains heavily undervalued based on on-chain metrics and a historically low yearly RSI, but bottom formation typically takes months and is not an immediate signal for a turnaround.
  • Rational Root believes Bitcoin's price action is still governed by historical four-year cycles, and a potential broader stock market crash could serve as a final capitulation event before a sustained recovery.
  • Rational Root states Bitcoin's correlation to risk assets like the Nasdaq remains strong, meaning it behaves more like a tech asset driven by liquidity than a digital safe haven in current market conditions.
  • Rational Root claims the narrative of Bitcoin as a wartime escape tool is overstated, as demand from conflict zones is a tiny slice of the global market and does not significantly drive price.
BTC MarketsProtocol

Iran, Oil and the Next Financial Crisis | Luke Gromen • Mar 10

  • Bitcoin's price rose during recent Middle East tensions, a departure from its typical correlation with risk on assets, which Gromen interprets as a sign it is functioning as a geopolitical hedge.
  • This price action suggests a growing market perception of Bitcoin as digital property, separate from the fragilities of the traditional financial system.

Also from this episode:

Politics (4)
  • Luke Gromen says the U.S. Navy's recent refusal to enter the Strait of Hormuz after Iranian aggression revealed the failure of America's global military protection racket.
  • Gromen argues this collapse of the security guarantee is catastrophic for U.S. financial dominance, as the dollar's status relies on global trust in American protection.
  • Gromen claims Iran is now weaponizing oil price spikes against U.S. fiscal stability, using this knowledge to force tactical pauses in conflict.
  • Gromen concludes that the U.S. attempt to use Iran to choke China's oil supply has backfired, instead uniting adversaries against a common financial pressure point.
War (2)
  • Iran demonstrated in the conflict that modern missile and drone technology has rendered traditional, legacy naval power partially obsolete.
  • Gromen predicts the conflict will accelerate a frantic push by Iran, China, and Russia for Iran to obtain nuclear weapons.
Macro (1)
  • The immediate financial pressure point is oil, with Gromen stating U.S. bond and stock markets cannot withstand a sustained price of $100 per barrel.
WarTradeMarketsBTC Markets
Bitcoin And | Bitcoin & Economic News
Bitcoin And | Bitcoin & Economic News

Basel's Basil | Bitcoin Regulation • Mar 13

  • Paraguay enacted a law requiring annual reporting for any cryptocurrency transaction exceeding $5,000, with platforms mandated to report wallet addresses, transaction hashes, and counterparty details. David Bennett called the move "absolutely over the top freaking ridiculous" and "authoritarian."
  • The new Paraguayan law's reporting scope is broad, covering purchases, sales, exchanges, mining, staking, yield farming, airdrops, and transfers between a person's own wallets.
  • David Bennett argues that Paraguay's invasive financial surveillance, while framed as anti-money laundering, is more likely to repel foreign investment than attract it.
  • Paraguay's regulatory push aligns with recommendations from the Financial Action Task Force, which has urged countries toward stringent crypto reporting since 2019.
  • South Korea's National Tax Service is developing an AI-powered platform to monitor digital asset transactions and identify tax evasion, with a 3 billion won budget.
  • The global regulatory shift is moving beyond legislation toward active, automated enforcement, using advanced technology for comprehensive crypto taxation and oversight.

Also from this episode:

Stablecoins (2)
  • A report from the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime claims stablecoins like Tether are gaining relevance as a payment method in the illicit Amazon gold trade, particularly in Venezuela for gold smuggled out of Guyana.
  • David Bennett labeled the report linking stablecoins to illicit gold trading as "bullshit," arguing the criminal enterprise has existed for centuries and the narrative aims to tarnish cryptocurrency by association.
BTC MarketsRegulationPrivacy

Wholly Unholy Matrimony | Bitcoin News • Mar 12

  • The fight for a Bitcoin de minimis tax exemption is exposing a strategic schism between companies building payment infrastructure, which need Bitcoin treated as money, and those content with its status as a taxable digital asset.
  • Podcaster Marty Bent, citing three sources, accused Coinbase of lobbying to limit the de minimis tax exemption to stablecoins only, an accusation echoed by the Bitcoin Policy Institute's Connor Brown.
  • Bitcoin Policy Institute's Connor Brown confirmed a strong political shift in Washington D.C. toward a stablecoin-only de minimis tax rule in recent months, creating headwinds for a broader Bitcoin exemption.
  • Coinbase Chief Policy Officer Faryar Shirzad called the lobbying accusation a total lie, but CEO Brian Armstrong has not made a definitive public statement, prompting public calls for clarity from Jack Dorsey's Block.
  • Jack Dorsey's Block is campaigning for Bitcoin as everyday money, building Lightning tools for merchants, and argues that a de minimis tax exemption is essential to validate its entire payment infrastructure business model.
  • Block's Miles Suter argues that Bitcoin payments are what validate Bitcoin as money, stating if Bitcoin just becomes digital gold, we failed the mission.
  • Lightning Network volume data from November 2025, showing $1.17 billion across over 5 million transactions, provides the strongest evidence against the political argument that no one is using Bitcoin as money.
  • Cash App processed one in four outbound Lightning Network payments in November 2025, demonstrating significant user adoption of Bitcoin for payments.
  • A powerful faction in Washington D.C. is moving to treat stablecoins as the only viable digital currency for payments, a policy outcome that would cement Bitcoin's status solely as a capital asset.
BTC MarketsAdoptionPaymentsRegulation

Civil AI | Bitcoin News • Mar 11

  • Binance has filed a defamation lawsuit against the Wall Street Journal's publisher, Dow Jones, following a report alleging the DOJ is investigating if Iran used the exchange to circumvent US sanctions.
  • Binance stated it never fired employees for raising compliance concerns and fully cooperated with law enforcement, denying the WSJ report's claims.
  • The lawsuit comes while Binance operates under a US-appointed compliance monitor, who has requested records pertaining to the alleged Iranian transfers.
  • Netflix blocked Bitcoin mining firm SAS Mining and lending platform Ledden from sponsoring a boxer's gear for a live-streamed fight, citing a policy against speculative financial products.
  • Ken Halliburton, CEO of SAS Mining, called Netflix's decision incoherent, noting it approved sponsorships from gambling sites Polymarket and DraftKings, which involve real-money speculation.
  • The reversal forced boxer Justin Cardona to replace custom-embroidered trunks at his own expense just a week before the fight, disrupting his preparation.
  • Despite institutional resistance, firms like Mastercard are advancing mainstream crypto adoption through new global partner programs, including with Binance.
  • Binance has a history of legal action against media, having previously sued Forbes in 2020, and pleaded guilty to US AML and sanctions violations in 2023, paying $4.3 billion in penalties.
BTC MarketsRegulationAdoption

BTC's Golden Ticket | Bitcoin News • Mar 10

  • The Department of Justice is pursuing a second trial against Tornado Cash co-founder Roman Storm on unresolved money laundering charges, which could carry a maximum 40-year sentence.
  • Roman Storm was previously convicted of operating an unlicensed money-transmitting business. Bitcoin & Economic News host argues Storm is being prosecuted for writing open-source code for a protocol he doesn't control, calling him a political martyr.
  • The host characterizes the DOJ's pursuit of a second trial against Storm as political theater, questioning why a potential Trump administration hasn't intervened with a pardon.
  • U.S. authorities are sending conflicting messages, with a DOJ official stating 'writing code is not a crime' and the Treasury acknowledging legitimate privacy uses for mixers, while prosecutors simultaneously push forward with the case against Storm.
  • Coinbase has launched regulated Bitcoin and crypto futures in 26 European countries through its MiFID-registered entity, offering a regulated alternative to offshore platforms.
  • The host speculates Coinbase's European futures launch aligns with its 'exchange for everything' strategy and predicts Elon Musk might attempt to buy the company to integrate it into his 'everything app' vision for X.
  • The host frames the dual narratives of the legal battle over code and the race to build regulated financial empires as two sides of the same fight to define the next era of finance.

Also from this episode:

Markets (1)
  • Coinbase's new European futures platform, which includes cash-settled Bitcoin futures and a 'MAG7' crypto-equity index with up to 10x leverage, uses USDC for funding instead of Tether. The host sees this as a regulatory-driven choice.
PrivacyRegulationETFsCustody
Rabbit Hole Recap
Rabbit Hole Recap

RABBIT HOLE RECAP #400: COINBASE FIGHTS BITCOIN • Mar 12

  • According to Matt Odell, citing two sources, Coinbase lobbyists are pushing Washington to prioritize a de minimis tax exemption for stablecoins while sidelining a similar exemption for Bitcoin payments.
  • A de minimis tax exemption would remove a major barrier to Bitcoin as everyday money by eliminating capital gains reporting on small purchases like coffee.
  • Odell argues that seeking a de minimis exemption for stablecoins is redundant, as they are pegged to the dollar and any taxable gain is inherently minimal.
  • Coinbase's product focus, such as its commerce tool supporting only wrapped bitcoin on Ethereum or Base, not native Bitcoin, signals the firm's historical alignment with 'shitcoin land' over Bitcoin-as-money, according to the show.
  • In the broader crypto market structure bill FIT21, the only provision seen as favorable to Bitcoin core principles, the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act protecting open-source developers, is reportedly intact due to Senator Lummis's efforts.
  • Odell contends the rest of the FIT21 Act is designed primarily to grease the wheels for token casinos and speculative crypto markets, not to support Bitcoin's foundational use cases.
  • The episode frames this lobbying report as part of a recurring pattern where the broader crypto industry sacrifices Bitcoin user interests, like developer protection and self-custody rights, to prioritize its own speculative agenda.
BTC MarketsPaymentsRegulation
TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast
TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast

#725: Why Bitcoin Adoption Is Fragmented with Fernando Nikolic • Mar 11

  • Nikolic argues Bitcoin thrives as the logical victor in a world where the foundational lies of the fiat system are no longer hidden.

Also from this episode:

Society (5)
  • Fernando Nikolic argues institutions like the church, governments, and legacy media maintained control for centuries by leveraging information asymmetry as sole gatekeepers of truth.
  • Nikolic contends the internet destroyed this monopoly of centralized truth, collapsing the information asymmetry that allowed old institutions to control narratives.
  • Nikolic identifies this collapse of centralized truth as the core driver of current societal upheaval, not merely economic cycles.
  • Nikolic calls this societal phenomenon the 'fourth turning vibes', characterized by old institutions crumbling in front of everyone.
  • Nikolic claims the speed of information transfer accelerates societal crises and exposes institutional rot faster than ever before.
Macro (1)
  • Nikolic states the flaws and devaluations of central banks are now transparent in this new environment, exposing the foundational lies of the old system.
BTC MarketsAdoptionSociety
BTC Sessions
BTC Sessions

This Isn't America vs Iran — Here's Who's Actually Fighting | Simon Dixon • Mar 11

  • Simon Dixon contends hyperbitcoinization is unrealistic because Bitcoin custody solutions have already been co-opted by the incumbent financial system Bitcoin was meant to disrupt.

Also from this episode:

Macro (4)
  • Simon Dixon argues the global elite is deliberately weakening the dollar to pump stocks and transition to fiscal dominance while constructing a new surveillance-based order reliant on energy, chips, and AI.
  • Jeff Booth frames the centralizing force as the eternal fight against a monetary system based on theft, where an inflationary, debt-based system must centralize power exponentially to survive.
  • Booth argues the natural state of a free market is deflation, but humanity has never lived in one because the inflationary system lending money into existence prevents it.
  • Simon Dixon and Jeff Booth agree the inflationary debt system and a deflationary free market enabled by sound money cannot coexist; one system must kill the other.
Society (1)
  • Dixon forecasts a new class divide where most people are absorbed into a programmable money grid, 'owning nothing and being happy,' while a small elite uses Bitcoin for self-custody exit.
Philosophy (1)
  • Jeff Booth believes focusing on the elite's secrets is a trap that keeps people in a fear cycle; true agency comes from building the deflationary future you want.
Protocol (1)
  • Booth sees Bitcoin's open protocol as the unstoppable foundation for a new, deflationary world if people choose to use it, while Simon Dixon views Bitcoin primarily as a lifeboat for a new elite, not a leveller.
BTC MarketsCustodyPaymentsSociety

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