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Trump’s war with Iran shatters his non-interventionist base

Thursday, April 2, 2026 · from 3 podcasts, 5 episodes
Breaking Points with Krys…Breaking Points with Krys…The Intelligence from The…The Ezra Klein ShowBreaking Points with Krys…
  • Trump’s approval hits 33% as voters reject a war he promised to prevent, with gas prices spiking to $4.
  • The Iran conflict reveals the core contradiction between Trump’s populist promises and establishment governance.
  • Military pressure backfires, leaving the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian control and the global economy hostage.

Donald Trump’s war with Iran has tanked his presidency to a 33% approval rating and shattered the coalition that elected him. The “anti-war” candidate, who built his 2024 comeback on ending forever wars, is now floating ground invasions and watching gas prices breach $4 a gallon. On *Breaking Points*, Saagar Enjeti notes there was no rally-around-the-flag effect - 52% of Americans opposed the conflict from the start.

The political damage is self-inflicted and potent. Krystal Ball points out that every major dip in Trump’s polls stems from his own policy choices, not external crises. To fund the $200 billion war, the White House is considering cuts to Medicare Advantage, a direct hit to the voters Caroline Levitt claimed the war would benefit. Instead, they face spiked mortgage rates and the threat of a draft.

This isn’t just a failed military campaign; it’s the collapse of a political project. As Christopher Caldwell argues on *The Ezra Klein Show*, Trumpism was a promise of democratic restoration, a bypass of the permanent state. Its load-bearing pillar was non-interventionism. By pivoting to a major Middle East war, Trump has become indistinguishable from the establishment he was elected to dismantle.

Saagar Enjeti, Breaking Points:

- The government at this time really showed its hand.

- They felt so arrogant, Trump and others, that America would follow them into this war, that they didn't even bother trying to sell us.

The strategic failure is complete. The U.S. entered with the objective of regime change and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. After a month, Iran has doubled its missile strikes, inflicted strategic damage, and now effectively controls the world’s most vital oil artery, demanding tolls in Chinese yuan. Greg Carlstrom warns on *The Intelligence* that the stalemate may push Trump toward a ground invasion, risking the very forever war he campaigned against.

Christopher Caldwell, The Ezra Klein Show:

- Trump promised a country in which you would get the stuff you voted for and not the permanent state.

- Having gone to war now, the limit is sort of off.

The base tolerated Trump’s noise - the self-enrichment, the donor tax cuts - as long as he avoided major wars. That bargain is broken. The populist energy may linger in the MAGA movement, but the governing program has reverted to standard donor-class governance. Trump is discovering that starting a war is easy, but ending one without surrender is impossible.

WarElectionsCorruptionMiddle East

By the Numbers

  • over $4US national average gas pricemetric
  • 117Brent crude oil price (approx.)metric
  • $2 millionproposed Iranian toll per tankermetric
  • $1estimated cost per barrel from tollmetric
  • 33%Trump approval rating (UGov)metric
  • 62%Trump disapproval rating (UGov)metric

Entities Mentioned

HouthisCompany
Truth SocialProduct

Source Intelligence

What each podcast actually said

Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

3/31/26: Trump Floats Iran Surrender, Trump Rock Bottom Polls, Gas Prices Spike • Mar 31

  • Donald Trump's Truth Social post suggests he's willing to end the Iran war without reopening the Strait of Hormuz, telling allies to 'go get your own oil.'
  • Saagar argues that if the US leaves the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian control, it would constitute a strategic surrender and a fundamental rewriting of the US security guarantee in the Middle East.
  • Krystal and Saagar believe Trump's potential withdrawal from the Iran war is driven by tanking poll numbers, bond market issues, and pressure from high oil and stock market volatility.
  • Iran's parliament passed a bill to establish a toll system for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, banning US and Israeli vessels and asserting sovereignty.
  • Rory Johnston says the US average gas price has officially exceeded $4 a gallon, a significant milestone resulting from the Iran war disruption.
  • Rory Johnston forecasts that if Iran retains control of the strait, oil prices will remain structurally high, setting the stage for perennial future crises.
  • Johnston states that a proposed $2 million toll per tanker passage through the Strait of Hormuz would add roughly $1 to the cost of a barrel of oil.
  • An airstrike with bunker-busting bombs hit an Iranian ammunition depot in Isfahan near nuclear facilities just yesterday, indicating the war continues.
  • Italy and Spain have both refused to allow US military planes to land at their bases or grant flyover rights, signaling major allied dissent.
  • A UGov poll shows Trump's approval rating at 33% with 62% disapproval, which Krystal calls some of the worst numbers of his presidency.
  • Nate Silver's poll average shows Trump's approval dipping under 40%, with a consistent downward trajectory since the Iran war began.
  • Krystal notes the White House is considering cutting Medicare Advantage to fund the $200 billion cost of the Iran war, which would be politically damaging.
  • Saagar argues the Iran war has exposed critical weaknesses in the US defense industrial base, which is ill-suited for modern asymmetric warfare dominated by drones.
  • Krystal points out that every major dip in Trump's poll numbers stems from his own policy choices, not external crises, making the damage more politically potent.

Also from this episode:

Energy (3)
  • Rory Johnston explains that a US ban on diesel exports would initially lower domestic prices but soon force refinery shutdowns, creating gasoline scarcity.
  • Johnston describes an 'air pocket' in global oil supply, where the loss of tankers from the Gulf is reaching Asia this week, Europe next week, and North America in two weeks.
  • Rory Johnston predicts the coming driving season will be the most expensive since 2022, with potential for all-time high US diesel and pump prices if the crisis continues.
Diplomacy (1)
  • The hosts argue that a US withdrawal would empower a stronger Iran-China-Russia alliance, with China poised to enrich Tehran through a parallel banking system.
WarMacroDiplomacyTradeMarkets

3/30/26: Iran Blows Up US Aircraft, Trump Floats Ground Invasion • Mar 30

  • Trump threatened to destroy Iranian electric plants, oil wells, and desalination facilities via ultimatum.
  • Saagar Enjeti calls Trump's claim of negotiating with a 'more reasonable regime' a fantasy to calm oil markets and stock futures.
  • Enjeti says there is no scenario where the Strait of Hormuz reopens within a week, and no deal is close.
  • The Iranian figure Trump identified as a partner, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, remains publicly hardline against U.S. demands.
  • Iranian missile strikes doubled in a 24-hour period, inflicting strategic damage on U.S. assets.
  • Trump has twice extended his invasion deadline, moving from 48 hours to ten days in search of a diplomatic breakthrough.
  • Krystal Ball argues Trump's Truth Social posts are a delaying tactic to market-manipulate and buy time.
  • Ball sees zero indication of any softening from the new Iranian leadership following recent assassinations.
  • The Strait of Hormuz remains closed to tankers not paying Iran directly in Chinese yuan, defying Trump's threats.
WarDiplomacyMiddle EastMarketsTrade

3/26/26: Trump Econ Numbers Flop, Oil Spikes, Professor Pape Dire Warning, Cuba Makes Offer To US • Mar 26

  • Trump's approval rating fell to 36% after escalating combat in Iran, as his 2024 coalition was built on ending forever wars.
  • Gas prices and mortgage rates have spiked under Trump's war policy, contradicting his campaign promise of lower prices.
  • 52.1% of Americans oppose the Iran war from the start, breaking the typical 'rally around the flag' effect seen in past conflicts.
  • Saagar Enjeti argues the administration showed arrogance by not trying to build public consensus, assuming America would simply follow.
  • The administration claims the war benefits young people, the same demographic now facing high mortgage rates and a potential draft.
  • Enjeti says the U.S. killed the Iranian leader who issued a fatwa against nuclear weapons, likely accelerating Iran's nuclear program.
  • The conflict has shattered the political framework for young voters who backed Trump as an anti-war candidate, creating a permanent realignment.
WarElectionsMiddle East
The Intelligence from The Economist
The Intelligence from The Economist

The bog of war: week five begins • Mar 30

  • The war between Iran and the U.S./Israel has entered its fifth week with little prospect of a negotiated end.
  • Yemen's Houthi militia, aligned with Iran, fired ballistic missiles at southern Israel over the weekend.
  • Greg Carlstrom says Tehran believes it has the upper hand, having sustained drone attacks and gained de facto control of the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Iran is exporting more oil and making more money from oil exports now than before the war began.
  • The current oil market shortfall is 10 million barrels per day, which could double if Houthis resume attacks on Red Sea shipping.
  • Greg Carlstrom says Iran's core demand is a guarantee against future American or Israeli attacks.
  • Iran also demands reparations, closure of U.S. bases, and the right to charge fees for Strait of Hormuz passage.
  • The U.S. Pentagon has already deployed 7,000 Marines and paratroopers to the region, with talk of another 10,000 troops.
  • A likely U.S. ground operation could involve seizing islands at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz to defend shipping.
  • Greg Carlstrom says a U.S. ground invasion of Iran is becoming quite likely.
  • In 1898, America drove Spain out of Cuba and Puerto Rico and took the Philippines and Guam, becoming a colonial power with 10 million subjects.

Also from this episode:

History (5)
  • By the 1890s, the United States had overtaken Britain as the world's leading industrial power.
  • The 1886 Haymarket Square protest in Chicago, where a bomb was thrown at police, killed at least 11 people and sparked anti-labor hysteria.
  • Congress opened America's doors to immigrants during the Civil War but by 1924 had virtually barred migrants from outside the Americas.
  • In the 1896 Plessy v. Ferguson case, the Supreme Court ruled against Homer Plessy, reinforcing segregation.
  • President Theodore Roosevelt clashed with big business as a 'trustbuster' but proved weak during the 1907 financial crisis.
Media (4)
  • 2026 is being called the 'Year of Sci-Fi' with more than 20 big genre titles releasing, including films from Spielberg and new Dune and Star Wars entries.
  • The film Project Hail Mary earned $80 million at the North American box office on its opening weekend.
  • Alexandra Sewicz Bass says Project Hail Mary balances nihilism and hope, a theme appealing to current audiences.
  • The Economist's data analysis shows films are getting longer, driven by auteurs and audience willingness for character development.
WarMiddle EastDiplomacyMedia
The Ezra Klein Show
The Ezra Klein Show

Will Iran Break Trumpism? • Mar 27

  • Christopher Caldwell argues Trumpism was a project of democratic restoration, meant to bypass the permanent state of unelected bureaucrats and elite institutions.
  • Its core promise was to deliver the policies voters chose at the ballot box, not the permanent state's agenda.
  • Caldwell says the load-bearing pillar of Trumpism was non-interventionism, a rejection of the Iraq War consensus.
  • This stance broke the old Republican guard and built a coalition of voters left behind by the global economy and military-industrial complex.
  • As long as Trump avoided major wars, Caldwell argues he had leeway to pursue his broader agenda, despite internal contradictions.
  • The base tolerated noise like self-enrichment and tax cuts for the wealthy, as long as the core promise of non-intervention held.
  • Caldwell contends that escalating conflict with Iran betrays the base and makes Trump indistinguishable from the establishment he was elected to dismantle.
  • Once committed to a major regional war, the constraint of anti-interventionism is off, and the governing program collapses.
  • Without that pillar, Caldwell says the project reverts to standard, donor-class governance, just another presidency, not a movement.
WarElectionsMiddle East

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