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Energy rationing in Asia exposes hollow political climate promises

Wednesday, April 8, 2026 · from 3 podcasts
TFTC: A Bitcoin PodcastThe Intelligence from The…Peter St Onge Podcast
  • Physical energy shortages force Thailand, India, and Pakistan into extreme rationing like A/C bans and cremation limits.
  • US energy independence insulates its economy while Europe’s green policies and Asia’s import reliance create crisis.
  • Systemic political overhaul, not individual action, is required to solve the global climate standoff.

Energy rationing is no longer a forecast - it's the reality for millions across Asia. While political rhetoric focuses on climate transition, physical shortages have triggered draconian measures: Thailand banned air conditioning below 79 degrees, India restricted natural gas for cremations, and Pakistan moved to a four-day workweek to conserve power.

Peter St Onge, Peter St Onge Podcast:

- This isn't just an inflation story.

- It is a physical shortage.

- Myanmar has mandated every-other-day driving based on license plate numbers.

Peter St Onge reports these interventions are a direct result of severe supply shortfalls, with the Dubai oil benchmark hitting $170. He contrasts this with the United States, which has doubled domestic production since the 1970s to become the world’s largest exporter. Europe, having shuttered coal and nuclear plants under net-zero policies, now imports 80% of its petroleum and nearly all its natural gas.

The crisis reveals a deeper geopolitical stalemate. On The Intelligence, Oliver Morton frames climate action as a collective action problem: no nation wants to bear the cost of decarbonizing if others free-ride. Progress happens when pioneers like Britain subsidize technology until it becomes the cheapest option globally, as seen with offshore wind’s fourfold price drop.

Meanwhile, beneath the diplomatic noise, physical trade continues. On TFTC, Marty Bent notes that 4 million barrels of oil exited the Strait of Hormuz last week - the highest outflow since the Iran conflict began - as nations like Japan and France quietly unfreeze Iranian assets to keep tankers moving.

The divergence is stark: the U.S. builds strategic LNG terminals like the Golden Pass project in Texas, while Asia faces mandatory factory idling that could lay off tens of millions. The rationing is a brutal stress test, exposing the gap between political promises and the infrastructure required to keep societies running.

EnergyRegulationMarkets

By the Numbers

  • 4 million barrelsOil exiting Strait of Hormuzmetric
  • 18 million metric tonsAnnual LNG production from Texas joint venturemetric
  • OctoberAlberta secession referendum votemetric
  • DecemberShrinks Plus paper releasemetric
  • MarchShrimps proposal iterationmetric
  • 0.8 to 1.5 metersPotential sea level rise from land-ice melt this centurymetric

Entities Mentioned

ApolloProduct
BlackstoneCompany
CoinbaseCompany
ExxonConcept
Google AntigravityProduct

Source Intelligence

What each podcast actually said

TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast
TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast

Marty Bent

Ten31 Timestamp: Schrödinger's Regime Change • Apr 6

  • The Trump administration appears to be generating contradictory policy signals hourly, creating a 'Leroy Jenkins' atmosphere of chaotic uncertainty for markets that makes tracking headlines feel pointless.
  • Approximately 4 million barrels of oil exited the Strait of Hormuz last Thursday, the largest outflow since the start of the Iran conflict. A French container ship also made the first explicit Western crossing since February.
  • Cetrini's on-ground analysis suggests Iran wants to keep the Strait open to project control and act as a responsible actor, not to facilitate a petroyuan shift. Payments involve diplomatic back-channels and quid pro quo, not a dominant yuan system.
  • Countries like Japan and France are unfreezing Iranian assets to ensure oil flows, undermining the Western sanction regime and signaling the decline of the rule-based international order when physical needs conflict with political alignment.
  • A new Qatar Energy and Exxon joint venture in Texas will produce 18 million metric tons of LNG per year, offsetting Middle East supply disruptions and representing a strategic U.S. move to control critical energy inputs.
  • Alberta separatists have gathered signatures to launch a referendum on secession from Canada in October, with potential links to the Trump administration as part of a broader strategy to secure resources and alliances.

Also from this episode:

AI & Tech (1)
  • Google released a paper claiming a reduction in the logical qubits needed to break ECDSA with Shor's algorithm, reigniting quantum FUD, though physical quantum computer progress lags far behind theoretical advancements.
Adoption (3)
  • Bitcoin developers are preparing for a post-ECDSA future methodically. Jonas Nick and Mikhail Kudinov released a hash-based signature paper in December, and Nick iterated with a more efficient 'Shrimps' proposal in late March.
  • A state-level adversary could theoretically try to disrupt Bitcoin by engineering panic to rush untested, novel cryptography into the protocol, highlighting the risk of action bias in responding to quantum threats.
  • Only a small subset of Bitcoin developers specialize in advanced cryptography, making broad calls for all developers to 'solve' quantum resistance unproductive. The protocol's ability to attract such specialized talent signals its high value.
EnergyMacroMarketsProtocol
Peter St Onge Podcast
Peter St Onge Podcast

Ep 167 Weekly Roundup: 72 Scam Hospices in a Single Building • Apr 6

  • Peter St Onge reports that global oil shortages are severely impacting Europe and Asia, with gas prices significantly higher and energy rationing beginning. He contrasts this with the US, which has doubled domestic oil and natural gas production since the 1970s, making it the world's largest exporter and somewhat insulated from the crisis.
  • Peter St Onge attributes Europe's high energy dependence, including 80% petroleum and near-total natural gas imports, to its 'net-zero' climate policies that shuttered coal and nuclear plants. Asian nations also face severe energy vulnerability due to geographic limitations, with China covering only 25% of its oil use and other major economies importing nearly 100%.
  • Peter St Onge describes how rapid energy shortages in Asia triggered widespread government interventions, including export bans, price caps, rationing, driving restrictions, and A/C limits. He warns that potential mandatory factory idling could lay off tens of millions across the region.
  • Peter St Onge reports US home sales crashed 20% in a single month, the worst since 2008, with sales at 587,000 units - half of pandemic levels and 150,000 below 2019 figures. Despite homes for sale rising 4.9% and prices falling 7% year-on-year, the market remains stalled.
  • Peter St Onge reports Wall Street banks are lobbying Congress to ban interest on stablecoins, which they see as an existential threat to fractional reserve banking. Stablecoins, backed 1:1 with treasuries, offer over 4% interest with zero fees, significantly outperforming traditional banks that are 7-10% backed and pay minimal interest.
  • Peter St Onge warns that Republicans in Congress are pushing legislation, disguised as a housing bill, that would greenlight a wholesale Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) - issued only to banks - while banning a retail CBDC where the Fed issues directly to the public. He notes this happens despite overwhelming public opposition, with 80-95% of Americans opposing CBDCs once understood.
  • Peter St Onge warns of spreading cracks in the $1.8 trillion private credit industry, with major funds like Ares Management and Blue Owl limiting redemptions - an 'asset management equivalent of a bank run.' He attributes this to years of risky 'covenant light' loans and Fed rate hikes, impacting commercial real estate and leveraged buyouts, which could threaten pensions and insurance companies.

Also from this episode:

Business (1)
  • Peter St Onge attributes housing market stagnation to the Federal Reserve's nearly $7 trillion COVID-era monetary expansion, which artificially drove mortgage rates to 2.6%. Now, with rates doubled to 6.4%, half of COVID-era mortgage holders are effectively trapped, unable to sell without facing double payments on an identical new house.
EnergyBankingMacroStablecoins
The Intelligence from The Economist
The Intelligence from The Economist

Hungary for change? A challenger to Orban • Apr 6

  • Electric cars are a good climate solution but only with a green grid, Morton clarifies, as coal-powered electricity undermines their efficiency gains compared to cleaner public transport.
  • Land use for solar versus trees depends on context. Solar's value is highest replacing dirty energy or powering the unelectrified, and its cost falls with scale, unlike trees which don't experience the same learning curve.
  • Britain's carbon emissions are now at late-19th-century levels, a drop driven by offshore wind subsidies that created a fourfold price reduction, showing how pioneering policy can cut global clean tech costs.

Also from this episode:

Media (1)
  • The Economist's first single-subject special issue reframed climate coverage, ensuring every section, from business to travel, featured a major climate story like Panama Canal's drought risk.
Climate (12)
  • Ed Hawkins's 'warming stripes' visualization, used on the issue's cover, shows global temperature anomalies from the mid-19th century, moving from blues to intense reds in recent decades.
  • Morton explains polar ice melt is complex but critical to sea level rise. Floating ice loss alters ecosystems, while land-based ice from Antarctica and Greenland could add 0.8 to 1.5 meters this century, reshaping coastlines globally.
  • Arctic warming directly disrupts local foundations built on permafrost and forces rapid adaptation for animal habitats and human livelihoods, demonstrating climate's immediate regional impacts.
  • Climate change hinders development, Oliver Morton argues by stressing agriculture and altering rainfall, which undermines progress toward UN sustainable development goals in vulnerable nations.
  • Quantifying climate's economic impact is notoriously difficult, Morton states, with projections varying widely from 3-5% of global GDP, but the costs of inaction are inherently relative to policy choices made now.
  • Oliver Morton suggests the link between capitalism's rise and fossil fuels is deep, meaning the system's legitimacy now depends on proving it can decarbonize effectively without being uprooted.
  • Morton's primary advice for individual action is political: vote for climate-conscious leaders, as systemic energy change outweighs personal footprint reduction, though he personally flies less within Europe.
  • Morton cautions young people against forgoing children solely due to climate fear, arguing it reduces personal stakes in the future and that the IPCC shows the poorest face the greatest near-term risks.
  • True 'reversal' of climate change is impossible; past harm is permanent. Morton notes theoretical long-term carbon removal or solar geoengineering could cool the planet but are distinct from erasing impacts.
  • Oliver Morton states no international body has strict enforcement against deforestation. Pressure is case-by-case, like EU trade conditions with Brazil, as nations resist coercion on sovereignty grounds.
  • The core geopolitical challenge is a collective action problem. Morton citing David Victor notes nations lack incentive to act first; solutions emerge when pioneers like Britain drive down clean tech costs for others.
  • Morton argues the Green New Deal is a policy framework, not a detailed plan, but risks diluting climate focus by bundling it with redistribution, which could aid Republican opposition in the US.
ClimateEnergyTrade

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