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Iran solidifies $90B Strait of Hormuz tolls, paid in Bitcoin

Saturday, April 11, 2026 · from 6 podcasts, 7 episodes
Behind the BastardsForward GuidanceRabbit Hole RecapBreaking PointsThis Week in AIPeter McCormack Show
  • Iran enforces a $1-per-barrel toll for oil tankers passing the Strait of Hormuz, demanding payment in Bitcoin or Yuan.
  • The scheme could generate up to $90B annually, handing Tehran massive revenue and strategic control over global energy flows.
  • The move marks a nation-state using crypto to bypass sanctions and permanently alter maritime law.

Iran has transformed the world's most vital oil chokepoint into a private toll road. Tankers must now pay the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps for passage through the Strait of Hormuz - $1 per barrel of oil, payable in Bitcoin or Chinese Yuan. On Breaking Points, Saagar Enjeti reported the potential haul: $70 to $90 billion a year. That’s nearly a quarter of Iran’s GDP and nine times what Egypt earns from the Suez Canal.

This isn’t a temporary shakedown. It’s a permanent geopolitical shift. Iran restricts passage to 12-15 ships daily, requiring IRGC permission. As reported by Rabbit Hole Recap, transactions can average $2 million per tanker. The 10-minute Bitcoin block time isn’t a hurdle for a vessel worth hundreds of millions; attempting a double-spend means losing access to the waterway forever.

"Iran bypasses sanctions by charging oil tankers Bitcoin for passage through the Strait of Hormuz."

- Rabbit Hole Recap

The U.S.-led war aimed at collapsing the Iranian regime has backfired catastrophically. Scholar Behrouz Ghamari-Tabrizi told Breaking Points that decades of pressure fused the nation and state together. Instead of fracturing, Tehran emerged more unified and militarily emboldened, proving it could shut down global energy markets. The U.S. spent an estimated $33-53 billion over six weeks, according to Saagar Enjeti, only to face a wealthier, more vengeful adversary.

Payment in Bitcoin is the logical capstone for a sanctioned state. Marty Bent noted on Rabbit Hole Recap that Iran already uses Bitcoin mining to monetize stranded energy. Accepting it for tolls closes the loop, creating a sanctions-proof settlement layer. Centralized digital dollars like USDC are a liability - the U.S. can freeze them. Bitcoin offers the only trustless alternative.

The precedent threatens the foundation of post-WWII maritime law. Yanis Varoufakis, also on Breaking Points, stated the war has “fundamentally changed international law,” setting a precedent for charging tolls in international waters. Krystal Ball warned that if Iran succeeds, nothing stops the Houthis from doing the same at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

"The U.S. empire tried to squeeze Tehran and accidentally funded its rise."

- Yanis Varoufakis, Breaking Points

China is the clear beneficiary, positioning itself as the regional adult. While the U.S. deal-making collapsed - with Israel immediately launching strikes in Lebanon - Beijing made the calls that brought Tehran to the table. Europe, Varoufakis argued, has rendered itself “ethically irrelevant.” The strategic defeat is comprehensive: the petrodollar weakens, U.S. naval guarantor status evaporates, and Iran becomes a fourth world power funded by its adversaries.

The Strait of Hormuz is now a customs booth. The tolls are real, the payments are in crypto, and the shift is permanent.

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Source Intelligence

What each podcast actually said

Behind the Bastards
Behind the Bastards

It Could Happen Here Weekly 227 • Apr 11

Also from this episode:

Sports (11)
  • Charles McDonald describes the NFLPA's crisis since Gene Upshaw's death as a 'textbook case study of organizational decay' led by a few people.
  • The 2006 CBA's 60-40 player revenue split was functionally closer to 51-52% due to owners taking a 'revenue credit' off the top before the split.
  • Owners used an opt-out clause in 2008, leading to the 2011 CBA which reduced the players' revenue share to about 47% and gave Roger Goodell full autonomy over player punishments.
  • The 2011 lockout and decertification strategy failed, leading players to accept a rookie wage scale. This eradicated the NFL's middle class as owners loaded up on cheap rookie contracts.
  • Sam Bradford's 2010 rookie deal was six years, $84 million. After the new scale in 2011, Cam Newton's deal was four years, $22 million fully guaranteed.
  • The 2020 CBA conceded a 17th regular season game for only a ~1% increase in revenue share, lining up with lucrative new TV contracts for the league.
  • J.C. Tretter, a former player with a Harvard degree in labor relations, instituted a confidential election process. Union board members didn't know candidate names until the meeting.
  • The NFLPA hired Lloyd Howell as executive director despite his background as a union-busting CFO at Booz Allen Hamilton and his role at the Carlyle Group, which invests in NFL teams.
  • An arbitration judge found evidence the NFL owners colluded against players, but the NFLPA, under Tretter and Howell, reportedly covered up the findings.
  • After resigning and claiming no further interest in leadership, J.C. Tretter returned as executive director in 2025 following a secretive process that functionally left him unopposed.
  • The Chicago Bears signed former union president Jalen Reeves-Maybin to a late-season contract, resetting his eligibility clock to remain in union leadership just as it was about to expire.
Society (2)
  • Robert Evans argues the NFLPA's decay mirrors broader American unionism's shift from militant organizing to 'business unionism' and 'service union' models where a small bureaucratic clique controls information.
  • Charles McDonald highlights systemic racial and economic exploitation, noting studies show up to 80% of Black boys who play sports aspire to be professional athletes due to limited options.
LaborMarketsRegulationBusiness
Forward Guidance
Forward Guidance

Markets Are Trapped Between Geopolitical Chaos and AI Productivity Boom | Weekly Roundup • Apr 10

Also from this episode:

Fed (1)
  • Tyler argues the S&P 500 is unjustifiably near all-time highs given a poor macro outlook of blistering inflation prints, poor liquidity, and unresolved geopolitical risk with the Strait of Hormuz still closed.
AI & Tech (2)
  • Felix contends the market is underpricing the structural demand for AI compute, with GPU availability collapsing and anything associated with that demand breaking out. He believes this will lead any sustainable bull market.
  • Felix notes AI is actively eating software's lunch, citing a divergence where the software ETF (IGV) is breaking multiple moving averages while earnings have yet to roll over.
Markets (3)
  • Systematic funds remain structurally short equities, with Goldman Sachs estimating the systematic community is still short $37 billion of US equities and CTAs projected to buy $45 billion over the next week.
  • The hosts see gold as a necessary debasement hedge, noting its strength despite market manipulation and that miners are now printing cash with spot gold above their break-even costs.
  • Felix points to a recent retail capitulation signal, with a Citadel retail cash flow platform finishing last week as net sellers for the first time since November 2025.
Business (1)
  • Quinn identifies a massive maturity wall for tech debt, with over $330 billion of high yield and leveraged loan debt in the software and tech sectors needing repayment through 2028.
Macro (1)
  • Tyler notes oil over $100 has not triggered a bond market panic, with the 10-year yield at 4.27%, suggesting the fixed income market is treating the spike as transient demand destruction.
MacroMarketsEnergyEnterpriseFed
Rabbit Hole Recap
Rabbit Hole Recap

RABBIT HOLE RECAP #404: THE RISE OF THE PETROSAT • Apr 9

  • Marty reports Iran is reportedly accepting Bitcoin as payment for tolls through the Strait of Hormuz, with transactions potentially averaging $2 million per tanker at $1 per barrel.
  • Marty argues Bitcoin is ideal for international financial transfers where trust is limited, citing its finality and censorship resistance as superior to traditional and stablecoin alternatives for sanctioned entities like Iran.
  • Marty highlights Iran's existing Bitcoin mining operations, noting it offers an efficient way for energy-rich, sanctioned countries to monetize their energy resources directly.
  • Matt notes France made a $12 billion profit on the gold trade and suggests the repatriation highlights gold's limitations in verifiability and transferability compared to Bitcoin.
  • Marty notes the Iranian government has blocked its people from global internet access for 41 days during conflict, making alternative communication tools like Starlink, local mesh networks, and ham radio critical.
  • BitChat was banned in China, which Marty considers a positive signal for the freedom technology project; its Android app has accumulated 3.2 million downloads since launching on July 6, 2023.
  • Marty argues that the ethical stance of Bitcoin maximalism has been compromised by the embrace of MicroStrategy's (MSTR) treasury products, which he likens to 'shitcoins' when viewed through a non-Wall Street lens.

Also from this episode:

Macro (1)
  • France repatriated 129 tons of gold by selling reserves in New York and repurchasing them in Europe, citing concerns over counterparty risk with foreign holdings.
ETFs (2)
  • The Bitcoin ETF became the fastest-growing ETF in history, accumulating $100 billion in assets under management in 435 days, significantly faster than the previous record holder (VOOS ETF, 2011 days).
  • Morgan Stanley launched its own Bitcoin ETF, featuring lower fees than BlackRock's IBIT and leveraging its 16,000 advisors managing $7.4 trillion in client assets for potential inflows.
Payments (1)
  • Miles Suter of Block clarified that Square is gradually rolling out Bitcoin payments to eligible US sellers, enabling 100% of newly onboarded users by default while expanding to existing sellers in phases.
Lightning (1)
  • Individuals from El Salvador who completed Mempool's Lightning Network Bootcamp in Tokyo are now joining the company's team at its new offices in El Salvador.
Nostr (1)
  • OpenSats has issued its 16th wave of Nostr grants, committing 100% of donations to open-source contributors, supporting projects like Amethyst Desktop and Hamster, which utilizes ham radio for Nostr communication.
TradeMacroModelsRegulation
Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

4/9/26: WH Humiliated By Israel, Lebanon Bombings, Yanis Varoufakis On China Winning • Apr 9

  • The Trump White House claims Iran's initial ten-point ceasefire plan, which included Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz, the right to enrich uranium, total sanctions relief, and a ceasefire in Lebanon, was 'unserious' and discarded. However, the US says a modified proposal is now a workable basis for negotiation.
  • Saagar argues the US likely attempted a failed military operation to grab nuclear material in Iran, leading to Trump's escalation and a desperate scramble for a ceasefire after the mission backfired.
  • Krystal argues the fragile US-Iran truce is collapsing because Israel continues its bombing campaign in Lebanon, which was explicitly included in the Pakistani Prime Minister's ceasefire announcement reviewed by the US.
  • Vice President JD Vance claims the inclusion of Lebanon in the ceasefire was a 'legitimate misunderstanding,' asserting the US never promised to halt Israeli strikes there.
  • Iran's Parliament Speaker Golibah lists three US violations of the proposed ceasefire framework: non-compliance on Lebanon, an intruding drone in Iranian airspace, and denial of Iran's right to enrich uranium.
  • Israel's IDF conducted 'Operation Eternal Darkness,' its largest strike on Hezbollah since the war began, hitting over 100 targets in Lebanon in a single minute amid the supposed ceasefire.
  • Lebanese civil defense reported 254 killed and 1,000 wounded in a single day of Israeli strikes, with Beirut's southern suburbs suffering 61 deaths and 200 injuries.
  • Varoufakis states the potential deal is a major victory for Iran, citing a JP Morgan analysis that Iran could earn $17-90 billion annually from Strait of Hormuz tolls, dwarfing revenue from the Suez or Panama Canals.
  • Varoufakis asserts the war has fundamentally changed international law, setting a precedent for charging tolls in international waters, and has shattered the US plan for a Gulf State-Israel economic alliance under the Abraham Accords.

Also from this episode:

Diplomacy (2)
  • Yanis Varoufakis argues China is the great winner of the US-Iran war, gaining diplomatic stature by brokering deals and presenting itself as a reliable partner, while the US loses credibility.
  • Varoufakis claims Europe has rendered itself ethically and strategically irrelevant by unconditionally supporting Israel and allowing the US to use its bases, like in Cyprus, to attack Iran.
WarDiplomacyTradeFedChina

4/9/26: Oil Executives Panic, Bibi Rejects Ceasefire, Iran Victory Cements Gov Power • Apr 9

  • Sagar reports that Iran now restricts passage through the Strait of Hormuz to 12-15 ships daily, requiring IRGC permission and payment in crypto or yuan to circumvent US sanctions.
  • Krystal notes the oil industry reacted with alarm to Iran's new tolls and payment demands, feeling ignored by the White House on a situation previously promised to be resolved.
  • Sagar argues Iran's military capabilities prevent the US from regaining control of the Strait of Hormuz, solidifying a new reality where Iran leverages its geographic position for wealth and power.
  • Hamad Hosseini of the Iranian Oil and Gas Exporters Union stated Iran plans to collect a $1 per barrel toll, assess each ship, and demand payment in Bitcoin for untraceable transactions.
  • Sagar estimates Iran's potential revenue from Strait of Hormuz tolls could reach $70-90 billion, making it one of the wealthiest countries in the Middle East and enabling a potential nuclear program within 25 years.
  • Sagar critiques the war's high cost, estimating hundreds of millions daily and a total of $33-53 billion over 6-7 weeks, leading to a 5-10 year backlog in weapons replacement despite a $1.5 trillion defense budget.
  • Sagar warns that rising oil prices, with Brent crude at $98 per barrel, will likely keep national gas prices around $1 higher than the $2.80 per gallon pre-war average, punishing the US economy.
  • Netanyahu explicitly stated the ceasefire is "not the end of the war" but a temporary halt, emphasizing his readiness to resume fighting to achieve Israel's remaining objectives.
  • Naftali Bennett, former Israeli Prime Minister, and Yair Lapid, opposition leader, condemned Netanyahu, arguing he failed war goals and left Israel vulnerable to a vengeful, potentially nuclear Iran.
  • Sagar notes that Israel's war efforts have strengthened Iran's military posture, demonstrated its ability to strike inside Israel, and exposed weaknesses in Israeli air defense, leading to 60% US public disapproval of Israel.
  • Ghamari-Tabrizi describes the current conflict as part of a "long war on Iran" project since the 1979 revolution, noting previous sanctions globally killed 30 million people over 30 years.
  • Ghamari-Tabrizi explains US and Israeli meddling, such as the 2002 "Axis of Evil" speech after Iranian cooperation, consistently undermines Iranian reform movements and bolsters hardline positions.

Also from this episode:

Society (1)
  • Ghamari-Tabrizi asserts Iran has a vibrant civil society, with 28 daily newspapers in Tehran and recurring protest movements, which the government handles flexibly unless demands escalate to regime change.
Diplomacy (1)
  • Ghamari-Tabrizi describes Iran's foreign policy as nationalistic and pragmatic, focused on domestic security rather than dominion abroad, citing their siding with Armenia over Azerbaijan or India over Pakistan.
WarDiplomacyBTC MarketsMacroTrade
This Week in AI
This Week in AI

What's Left for Humans When AI Builds Everything? • Apr 8

Also from this episode:

AI & Tech (14)
  • Kanjun Q argues AI agents represent a dangerous future where companies like Anthropic or OpenAI, once they own a user's data, memories, and life's work, can exert excessive influence and lock users into their ecosystems.
  • Kanjun Q's company Imbue is building open-source infrastructure to run agents in parallel, aiming to commoditize the underlying model layer and give users control to swap out providers and retain their data.
  • Karina Hong argues that verifying AI-generated code is critical for safety, citing the formally verified Paris subway automatic switching system and European Space Agency's Ariane spacecraft as precedents.
  • Hong's company Axiom built an AI mathematician that achieved a perfect score (120/120) on the Putnam exam, the first AI to do so in the competition's 100-year history.
  • Jonathan Siddharth says Turing sells specialized data to frontier AI labs to train models on coding, enterprise workflows, and STEM tasks, then uses insights from enterprise deployments to create a feedback loop for model improvement.
  • Siddharth claims there is unlimited demand for high-quality training data as models improve, requiring hiring expert humans across industries to generate data for imitation or reinforcement learning.
  • The group discusses Anthropic's explosive revenue growth to a $30 billion run rate, which reportedly surpassed OpenAI's token sales, driven largely by its strength in AI-assisted coding tools like Claude Code.
  • Siddharth and Hong assert that training AI models on code improves their general reasoning abilities, likely because coding provides clear, verifiable feedback and teaches algorithmic, step-by-step thinking.
  • The hosts critique Meta's reported internal policy of measuring team output by tokens consumed, which Kanjun Q says leads to gaming the system, like writing bots to burn tokens in a loop.
  • Kanjun Q says Imbue's engineering workflow has been transformed by coding agents, with one team lead autonomously generating 60-70 pull requests overnight, drastically increasing code output.
  • Siddharth describes automating the CEO role at Turing by building a 'virtual chief of staff' AI that aggregates data from Salesforce, Jira, and GitHub to create executive briefs on company status.
  • The group debates workplace surveillance, with Jason Calacanis arguing that tracking work computers is necessary for elite performance and security, drawing a parallel to NBA teams monitoring player biometrics.
  • Kanjun Q warns of a default future path where verticalized AI companies (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google) lock users in, renting back their 'digital selves,' versus an open-source path where users own and control their agents.
  • Karina Hong envisions a future with 'a billion AI mathematicians' accelerating discovery, shortening the timeline from mathematical breakthrough to applied science from centuries to days.
AgentsModelsCodingEnterpriseStartups
The Peter McCormack Show
The Peter McCormack Show

Peter McCormack

#163 - Scott Horton - How Debt, Inflation and War Are All Connected • Apr 8

  • Horton describes a 'revolving door' or 'iron triangle' where arms manufacturers, Congress, and the media mutually benefit from perpetual war, with think tanks financed by defense firms producing studies to justify conflicts.
  • He contends US support for al-Qaeda affiliates in Syria after 2011, framed as backing 'moderate rebels,' directly led to the creation and expansion of the Islamic State (ISIS), which seized eastern Syria by 2013.
  • Horton argues the Israel lobby, particularly the neoconservative movement, lied the US into the Iraq War by fabricating claims about WMDs and ties to al-Qaeda, representing the interests of Benjamin Netanyahu at the time.
  • He identifies an 'escalation trap' in US foreign policy, where military dominance leads to overconfidence, biting off more than can be chewed, as exemplified by Vietnam and current Middle Eastern conflicts.

Also from this episode:

Politics (6)
  • Scott Horton argues the official US national debt stands at $40 trillion, and the government is now borrowing money to pay interest on that debt.
  • Horton claims interest on the national debt is now a larger percentage of the annual federal budget than spending on the entire US military empire, which he cites Winslow Wheeler to accurately cost at about $1.7 trillion per year.
  • He asserts American policymakers are often ignorant of basic Middle Eastern dynamics, citing instances where the FBI counterterrorism head and House Intelligence Committee chair could not distinguish between al-Qaeda and Hezbollah.
  • Horton uses a literary analogy, stating the state in 1984 maintained control by wasting societal wealth through perpetual war, a dynamic he sees mirrored in the modern US empire sinking resources into futile conflicts.
  • He argues the American public has decisively turned against the Israel lobby's influence, creating a dissonance where the political class remains captured by it against the will of voters across the political spectrum.
  • Horton says critics of Israeli government policy are often mistakenly accused of anti-Semitism because many have been inculcated to believe any such criticism is merely a disguised hatred of Jewish people.
Culture (1)
  • Horton claims media corporations have a financial incentive to hype and prolong violent conflicts because higher viewership during controversies allows them to charge increased advertising rates.
Business (1)
  • He posits that real wage earners, especially hourly workers, are the last to receive cost-of-living increases, making them the primary victims of monetary inflation caused by government policy.
WarMacroMiddle EastBanking

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