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Trump's Iran war gamble fractures NATO and weakens US power

Saturday, April 11, 2026 · from 5 podcasts, 6 episodes
Breaking PointsThe EconomistEzra Klein ShowAll-InThe Daily
  • European allies refused to support US strikes on Iran, triggering Trump's most severe NATO exit threat yet.
  • Control of the Strait of Hormuz gives Iran a winning hand; allies like South Korea now bypass Washington to cut deals.
  • The war drained US missile stockpiles, damaged 13 regional bases, and ended with Iran gaining stronger terms.

President Trump’s war with Iran has triggered the most severe crisis in NATO's 75-year history. European members, led by Spain, France, and Britain, refused to provide offensive military support or base access for the campaign. On The Daily, Mark Landler reported this refusal stems from a deep skepticism of Trump’s strategy and the traumatic legacy of Iraq. Trump views the refusal as a betrayal, publicly insulting leaders and threatening to withdraw from the alliance entirely.

"For the first time in modern history, the U.S. is waging a major war without its European allies."

- Mark Landler, The Daily

The transatlantic rift is structural, not rhetorical. The Intelligence noted that even Secretary of State Marco Rubio, once a staunch alliance defender, now echoes Trump’s complaint that Europe offers a one-way security guarantee. NATO chief Mark Rutte’s private diplomacy failed; Trump followed their meeting with social media posts distancing himself from the pact. Europe is now caught between placating Washington and planning for strategic autonomy, organizing a 35-country conference to secure the Strait of Hormuz without the US.

Strategically, the war has backfired. Iran’s ability to close the Strait of Hormuz acted as a functional nuclear deterrent. On Breaking Points, John Mearsheimer argued the US ran out of military options, with 13 regional bases destroyed or damaged and missile inventories depleted. Fareed Zakaria, on The Ezra Klein Show, said the conflict left Iran in a stronger position: it can now demand control of the strait and sanction relief - terms worth an estimated $90 billion yearly.

"The world now sees a leader who considers mass annihilation a valid starting bid for a trade deal."

- Fareed Zakaria, The Ezra Klein Show

The fallout is global. Breaking Points reported that South Korea is negotiating directly with Iran for oil passage, while Japan and Australia warn of a Pacific power vacuum as the US pulls Patriot missiles from their defense. China mediated the ceasefire and Russia gained billions from spiking oil prices. Zakaria cited a Gallup poll where global approval of Chinese leadership (36%) now surpasses that of the US (31%).

Even the wartime alliance with Israel fractured. The Intelligence reported Trump froze Netanyahu out of final talks, using Pakistan as a mediator. Israel faces an election having failed to halt Iran’s nuclear program, and Netanyahu cannot risk a total break with a White House that has told him to stand down. The blank-check era is over.

The war revealed a fundamental shift. Trump’s foreign policy, as Zakaria framed it, is predatory - musing about charging tolls in the strait rather than defending free navigation. This extractive approach, combined with a shattered military position and abandoned allies, marks a decline in American power that other nations are already hedging against.

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Source Intelligence

What each podcast actually said

Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

4/10/26: Trump Trashes Tucker, Mearsheimer Calls For Trump Surrender, Slotkin Lashes Out, Melania Epstein • Apr 10

  • Mearsheimer argues the US has no military leverage against Iran, citing 13 destroyed bases, a depleted missile inventory, and the loss of more aircraft in a single rescue mission than any day since Vietnam.
  • Mearsheimer states Trump's only viable off-ramp from the war is surrender, with the Iranian ten-point plan forming the basis for negotiations.
  • Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz functions as a strategic deterrent, giving it significant leverage in negotiations and allowing it to charge tolls for passage.
  • A strike on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline knocked out 700,000 barrels per day of its export capacity, about 10% of its maximum output.
  • The White House warned staffers not to bet on prediction markets about the war, citing the criminal misuse of non-public information.
  • A poll of Michigan Democratic primary voters found 62% agree that a candidate's willingness to stand up to AIPAC is a proxy for whether they'll fight for constituents on other issues.
  • The hosts critique the corruption of negotiators Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, who have billions in Gulf investments, arguing they are unfit to broker a deal with Iran.
  • Mearsheimer asserts the US-Israel relationship is in tatters, with Israel's reputation damaged by dragging the US into a catastrophic war and then undermining ceasefire efforts.
  • The war is causing a pivot away from Asia, undermining US alliances with Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan by depleting military stockpiles and demonstrating strategic incompetence.
  • Iran's baseline assumption in negotiations is that US diplomacy is a ruse to assassinate their leadership, a suspicion reinforced by the need for Pakistani fighter jet escorts for their diplomats.

Also from this episode:

Elections (2)
  • The same Michigan poll shows Haley Stevens's own voters are 49% less likely to support her if she takes money from AIPAC, and El-Sayed's voters are 86% less likely.
  • Donald Trump attacked Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, Candace Owens, and Alex Jones on Truth Social, calling them 'stupid people' and 'nutjobs' for their positions on Iran.
WarIranIsraelChinaDiplomacy
The Intelligence from The Economist
The Intelligence from The Economist

Bibi on board? Iran, America and Israel’s campaign in Lebanon • Apr 10

  • Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu sent contradictory messages on Lebanon, first proposing peaceful talks and then vowing to continue strikes until Hezbollah disarms, a campaign causing heavy casualties.
  • A major ceasefire sticking point is whether it covers Lebanon. Iran demands inclusion, Israel refuses, and Trump must mediate the dispute to allow broader talks in Islamabad to proceed.
  • Anshel Pfeffer notes Israel was frozen out of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks led by Trump via Pakistan, a country with no Israeli relations, signaling the war's end would be on American terms.
  • Pfeffer argues Netanyahu cannot seriously challenge Trump, and if ordered to accept a Lebanon ceasefire, he will comply to avoid jeopardizing their relationship, despite domestic political pressure.
  • Netanyahu faces an election in six months and uses the Lebanon front to show fighting spirit, as the war ends without achieving key Israeli aims like halting Iran's nuclear program.
  • Pfeffer observes a fracture emerging in the U.S.-Israel alliance, with Trump administration officials like the vice president and CIA head now publicly distancing themselves from Netanyahu and recording pre-war reservations.
  • Gluzman later wrote a samizdat manual advising dissidents on how to behave during psychiatric interrogations, and in 2022 refused to leave Kyiv during blackouts, finding the same sense of freedom he felt in Gulag punishment cells.

Also from this episode:

Space (4)
  • The Artemis II mission was a test flight of the Orion capsule with four crew, swinging past the Moon at a higher altitude than Apollo 8 but not entering orbit, before returning to Earth.
  • Oliver Morton states Artemis II's purpose was less science and more public engagement, serving as a modern media event where photography shares the experience, much like the original Apollo missions.
  • Artemis II's crew included Christina Koch, the first woman to travel to lunar distance, and Victor Glover, the first Black man, fulfilling the mission's diversity objectives despite NASA recently scrubbing the term from official lexicon.
  • The crew honored a personal loss by naming a lunar crater 'Carroll' after commander Reed Wiseman's late wife, using the mission to blend human reflection with exploration.
History (2)
  • Semyon Gluzman produced about 600 pieces of samizdat literature while imprisoned for seven years in the Soviet Gulag, smuggling out protests against his political imprisonment and brutal conditions.
  • Anne Rowe explains Gluzman was imprisoned for writing a 1971 forensic diagnosis proving General Grigorenko was sane, exposing the Soviet practice of using bogus 'sluggish schizophrenia' diagnoses to jail dissidents.
WarDiplomacyMiddle EastHistory

NATO’s dialogues: America’s (next) threat to go • Apr 9

  • Anton LaGuardia identifies three reasons Donald Trump's NATO threats are more serious now: intensified hostility, his revived claim that America should take Greenland, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio abandoning his prior defense of the alliance.
  • Trump's anger stems from European reluctance to fully support U.S. operations in Iran, specifically denying base and airspace access and refusing to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz during the conflict.
  • NATO Secretary Mark Rutte attempted to placate Trump by arguing Europeans quietly enabled U.S. power projection and praised his actions against Iran's nuclear and missile capabilities, but Trump's post-meeting social post signaled continued dissatisfaction.
  • European responses to the Iran war range from Spain's outright opposition and denial of U.S. access to Britain's efforts to soothe relations and plan for post-war Strait of Hormuz reopening, with France seeking autonomous leadership and Britain preferring U.S. partnership.

Also from this episode:

Politics (4)
  • A law requires Trump to secure a two-thirds Senate majority to withdraw from NATO, but LaGuardia notes its constitutionality is untested and Trump could cripple the alliance by withholding funds, troops, or its American commander without formally leaving.
  • Callum Williams reports emigration from 31 Western countries hit roughly 4 million people in 2024, a 20% increase from pre-pandemic levels, with surges in Canada (24% higher) and Sweden (over 60% higher).
  • A Brookings paper estimates 3 million people left America in 2025 versus 2 million in 2021, driven by Trump's deportation efforts, high taxes, slow growth, and political disillusionment, while most Western emigrants move to other Western countries.
  • Williams argues emigration is not inherently bad, citing New Zealand analysis that many high-skilled emigrants return later with new networks and ideas, providing long-term benefits despite short-term tax losses.
Culture (2)
  • John Fasman notes the 2026 FIFA World Cup is the first with three hosts (Mexico, Canada, U.S.) and 48 competing countries, with Spain having the best odds to win over England and France.
  • Spain's tiki-taka football style emphasizes short passes and possession, often boring spectators but effective, while domestic rivalries like El Clásico between Real Madrid and Barcelona reflect deeper Catalan-Spanish political divisions.
Sports (1)
  • Former coach Vicente del Bosque used the national team's tiki-taka system, reliant on collective play over superstars, to unite Catalans and Basques behind Spain, leading to a 2010 World Cup win and European championships in 2008 and 2012.
WarDiplomacyEuropeMacroLabor
The Ezra Klein Show
The Ezra Klein Show

Fareed Zakaria on the Moral Cost of Trump’s War • Apr 10

  • Klein argues Trump's threat to annihilate Iranian civilization, followed by a rapid pivot to a ceasefire and talk of partnership, reveals erratic and dangerous leadership driven by desperation over his failing presidency.
  • Zakaria says Trump's threat represents the abandonment of America's post-WWII moral role, contrasting it with past US efforts to rebuild defeated nations and provide public goods like freedom of navigation.
  • Klein notes Trump's oscillation included musing about the US and Iran jointly controlling the Strait of Hormuz to extract tolls, a stark departure from America's historical defense of freedom of navigation.
  • Zakaria contends the Iran war was a strategic disaster that strengthened Iran's position. He says Iran now can monetize control of the Strait of Hormuz, potentially gaining $90 billion yearly - twice its oil revenue.
  • Zakaria lists broader costs of the war: elevating oil prices, enriching Russia by $4-5 billion monthly, bringing China into Gulf diplomacy, weakening the dollar, and straining Western alliances.
  • Klein points out the Iranian ceasefire plan includes controlling the Strait, a right to enrich uranium, lifted sanctions, and reparations - terms that would have been unthinkable as a starting point before the war.
  • Zakaria describes Trump's foreign policy worldview as predatory and extractive, focused on short-term financial squeezing rather than maintaining the rules-based international order.
  • Zakaria argues Netanyahu's legacy includes politicizing the US-Israel alliance and, through the war, alienating global public opinion while displacing 1 million people, with 600,000 potentially barred from returning home.
  • Zakaria warns Trump's actions may cause irreparable damage by convincing other nations to seek insurance against US unpredictability, potentially triggering a downward spiral in global cooperation.
  • Zakaria sees parallels between US focus on Middle Eastern wars and late British imperial overstretch, where controlling peripheral territories drained focus from core economic competitiveness.
  • Zakaria cites a Gallup poll where global approval of Chinese leadership (36%) surpassed that of American leadership (31%), calling it mostly a vote against a US that is no longer leading effectively.

Also from this episode:

Politics (2)
  • Klein suggests liberalism's defense has become overly institutional, losing touch with the moral passion needed to counter Trump's appeal to naked self-interest and short-term extraction.
  • Zakaria acknowledges liberalism's problem of appearing unsatisfying after its successes but warns against seeking political romanticism, which often leads to dangerous places.
WarDiplomacyTradeChina
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Josh Shapiro on Trump, Iran War Chaos, Israel's Failure, the Economy, and 2028 Race • Apr 8

  • Shapiro is replacing progressive ideology with high-efficiency, business-friendly administrative reform.
  • Shapiro aims to seize the 'freedom' label from the GOP by focusing on personal autonomy.
  • Shapiro labels the Iran conflict a 'war of choice' that serves Netanyahu over America.
WarElectionsMacroMiddle EastRegulation
The Daily
The Daily

Trump’s Lonely War • Apr 6

  • European countries refused US requests for offensive military assistance in its war with Iran, offering only defensive and logistical support. Mark Landler says this refusal stems from a lack of consultation and skepticism about the war's strategy.
  • President Trump views Europe's refusal to join offensive operations as a failure to support a NATO ally. He responded by publicly insulting European leaders and threatening to cut trade and withdraw from NATO.
  • Europe has been drawn into the conflict despite its reluctance, as Iran has targeted European military bases in the region and European nations have security agreements with Gulf states like Kuwait and the UAE.
  • The European reluctance to forcibly reopen the Strait of Hormuz centers on military risk and strategic doubt. They possess mine-sweeping ships and frigates but consider them vulnerable targets during active conflict.
  • Mark Landler says European skepticism of Trump's war is heavily shaped by the traumatic legacy of the US-led invasion of Iraq, which was a war of choice that ended unsatisfactorily and poisoned domestic politics.
  • The Iran conflict has caused an energy crisis in Europe, spiking fuel prices and upending government fiscal plans. A gallon of diesel in Germany exceeded $9, and natural gas prices skyrocketed in Britain.
  • European leaders face a dilemma: resisting Trump risks losing US support for Ukraine, but a recent Supreme Court ruling limiting Trump's tariff authority has made them feel bolder in standing up to him.
  • Domestic political fallout varies: Italy's Georgia Maloney faces backlash over the war, while Britain's Keir Starmer has benefited politically from showing independence from Trump.
  • Historically, NATO members are not obligated to support each other's military adventures absent an Article 5 invocation. Landler cites the 1950s Suez Crisis, where the US opposed British and French actions, as a precedent.
  • Europe is pursuing diplomatic outreach and operational planning without the US, like a British-organized 35-country conference to plan a post-war Strait of Hormuz security coalition.
  • A US special operations mission rescued a downed airman in Iran. The officer evaded capture for over 24 hours, hiking a 7,000-foot ridge, before SEAL Team Six extracted him with support from a CIA deception campaign and attack aircraft.
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