Business (1)

• China's exports sharply slowed in March, missing forecasts, while its silver imports reached a multi-year high, indicating global supply chain disruptions impacting even major manufacturing economies.

Macro (2)

• The UAE is seeking a currency swap line with the US, which Luke Groman interprets as a concession request from the US to maintain the petrodollar system, or risk the UAE transacting oil in CNY or other currencies.
• US consumer delinquencies are at their highest level since 2017, posing a significant risk to the US economy which relies heavily on consumer spending, making it vulnerable to unemployment from AI.

Trade (1)

• China's CIPS payment system, effectively a gold-backed alternative to the dollar, saw increased volume in March, which Mallers suggests is linked to Iranian oil trade.

AI & Tech (1)

• The CEO of Anthropic, a creator of Claude, warns AI is rapidly progressing from a high school student's intelligence to a college student's, posing a risk of widespread entry-level white-collar job replacement.

Banking (1)

• Strike completed its first proof of reserves for its lending product, aiming to provide transparency for customers whose collateral is held for credit loans, with plans for segregated addresses visible on the blockchain.

War (5)

• US forces fired upon and seized the Iranian-flagged Motor Vessel Tosca in the Strait of Hormuz, enforcing a blockade just before the existing ceasefire with Iran was set to expire on Wednesday.
• Greg Karlstrom identifies three potential Iranian responses: direct attacks on US warships, attacks on commercial vessels in the Gulf for domestic retaliation, or negotiation to end the mutual blockade.
• The US views its recent action in the Strait as evening out the situation, arguing Iran failed to reopen it as supposedly agreed, and expects it to provide leverage in upcoming talks.
• A Russian drone struck Chernobyl's New Safe Confinement (NSC) on February 14, 2025, piercing the protective dome; the NSC was installed 10 years ago to isolate the site for a century.
• Balthazar Lindauer, EBRD director, calls the drone damage 'very significant,' stating the NSC is now 'useless' as its hermetic seal is lost, though a maintenance garage reportedly saved Reactor 4 from a direct hit.

Diplomacy (1)

• While the US has dropped its demand for Iran to never enrich uranium, its request for a prolonged moratorium remains a significant point of contention in negotiations.

Energy (1)

• The New Safe Confinement (NSC), built for $1.6 billion by 45 nations and orchestrated by the EBRD, stands 108 meters tall, 250 meters wide, and 150 meters long.

Other (5)

• Following the strike, visible flames were extinguished in two hours, but smoldering between the NSC's internal and external layers burned for weeks, gutting about half of the internal membrane.
• Engineers decided to fix the New Safe Confinement in place, rather than moving it, due to the high risk of leaving the unstable original sarcophagus unprotected.
• The estimated repair cost for the NSC is 500 million euros, a figure expected to rise, and Rafael Mariano Grossi of the IAEA warns that radioactive release risks will grow without repairs.
• Sunday marks the 40th anniversary of the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear accident.
• Don Wineland notes that global fast food chains like McDonald's, KFC, and Starbucks are now rapidly expanding into rural Chinese cities, such as Handtuan, as major cities are saturated.

War (10)

• Shashank Joshi says America's new military strategy against Iran is a blockade on all ships from Iranian ports or coastal waters, enforced impartially by US Central Command to meet international legal requirements.
• Joshi notes the US previously seized 10 tankers linked to Venezuela in the last six months, showing its capacity for enforcement. The blockade's aim is to sever Iran's economic lifeline and force negotiations on its nuclear program.
• Joshi argues Iran survived oil exports below 400,000 barrels per day in 2020 and can endure a new blockade using floating storage and credit lines. He doubts the blockade will bring Iran to its knees quickly.
• Joshi warns Iran will likely retaliate by attacking neutral shipping, trapping Gulf oil supply and potentially pushing Brent crude futures to $150 a barrel by late April.
• Joshi states the blockade will affect ships from adversaries like China and allies including Pakistan, Thailand, France, and Turkey, creating a diplomatic crisis for the US and risking further escalation.
• Joshi speculates Iran feels it won the first round of hostilities by surviving and controlling the Strait of Hormuz. He believes Iran will try to outlast Trump, betting on rising oil prices and US midterm elections in seven months.
• Tom Gardner reports Burkina Faso's President Ibrahim Traoré, a 38-year-old military officer in power since a 2022 coup, is implementing a 'total war' scorched earth campaign against jihadists that Human Rights Watch says constitutes war crimes.
• Gardner says a new Human Rights Watch report documents over 1,800 civilian deaths in 57 attacks, which are likely just the tip of the iceberg. The junta stands accused of ethnic cleansing against the Fulani minority.
• Gardner explains Traoré's strategy relies on tens of thousands of poorly trained volunteer defense forces, who now outnumber the official army by more than double and have ethnicized the conflict by targeting Fulani communities.
• Gardner argues the government's actions are counterproductive, driving more people to the jihadists. Jihadist movements in Burkina Faso are growing faster than in neighboring Mali and Niger, yet Traoré's strategy remains popular in areas distant from the fighting.

Business (1)

• John Fasman reports US sparkling water sales are up 70% from 2019 according to Mintel. Joseph Priestley developed carbonation in 1767, and Johann Schwepp later commercialized it.

War (2)

• Iranian Foreign Minister Syed Abbas Aragotchi declared the Strait of Hormuz 'completely open' for the remaining one week of the ceasefire, which sent West Texas Intermediate crude down nearly 10% to $85.90 a barrel.
• The U.S. and Iran are negotiating a plan that includes the U.S. releasing $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds in return for Iran giving up its stockpile of enriched uranium.

BTC Markets (1)

• Bitcoin derivatives data shows funding rates on perpetual futures have remained negative for over six weeks, indicating persistent bearish positioning that historically precedes upward breakouts as short sellers cover.

Macro (3)

• He outlines a 'three burners' macro framework: liquidity, manufacturing PMI, and leverage. Ross sees the 'liquidity blob' expanding due to U.S. fiscal war spending, a recovery in the ISM Manufacturing PMI above 50, and a resurgence in bank lending.
• Ross forecasts a multipolar end to U.S. dollar hegemony, with oil increasingly traded in yuan and gold. He interprets U.S. inaction over yuan-based Strait of Hormuz payments as tacit acceptance of this new reality, marking the end of the petrodollar system.
• He references a historical theory that a hegemon's decline begins when its debt interest payments exceed military spending, a threshold the U.S. has now crossed.

Inflation (1)

• Ross believes the U.S. is entering a period of 'structural inflation' in the 3-6% CPI range, driven by costly onshoring of manufacturing and military buildup. He argues this environment necessitates eventual yield curve control, a form of financial repression that erodes citizen purchasing power.

War (1)

• He asserts the U.S. is already in World War III, a conflict seeded in 2008 and marked by proxy wars. Ross predicts a U.S. move to seize Iran's Karg Island to control the Strait of Hormuz, aiming to pressure Iran and gain leverage over China, which is dependent on oil imports.

Fed (1)

• He views the Federal Reserve as currently irrelevant, 'neutered' by the Treasury, and expects it to become a tool for yield curve control only when war borrowing overwhelms private demand for U.S. debt.

AI & Tech (1)

• Ross argues AI-driven 'jobless recovery' will create a desperate white-collar class, necessitating a wealth redistribution like UBI. He claims this is not socialist dogma but a pragmatic response to humans competing against superior AI, citing potential civil unrest.