Other (14)

• Ryan Grim notes Donald Trump sent Jared Kushner and Witkoff to Islamabad for Iran peace talks, but Iranians have not yet agreed to send a delegation, with the US administration seemingly trying to force the talks.
• Ryan Grim identifies a real tension within the Iranian government between hardline IRGC elements, who seek to extract more pain from the US and Israel, and civilian leadership, who believe current leverage makes a deal advantageous.
• Krystal reports the US seized the Iranian cargo ship Tuska in the Gulf of Oman, firing on it after it ignored warnings for six hours; the ship was under US Treasury sanctions for illegal activity.
• Emily Jashinsky and Ryan Grim explain that Donald Trump’s triumphalist rhetoric, declaring Iranian surrender and imposing a naval blockade, undermined Iranian negotiators like Araghi who sought de-escalation, strengthening hardliners in the IRGC.
• Professor Marandi warns Gulf states (UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait) to evacuate immediately, threatening Iranian retaliation that would destroy everything and potentially make the region uninhabitable in summer.
• Krystal reports on a Wall Street Journal piece detailing Donald Trump's internal fears of becoming like Jimmy Carter due to the war's political fallout, noting military aides kept him out of the room during updates on a downed jet due to his impatience. The report mentioned gas prices averaging $4.90 during his concern.
• Krystal notes Donald Trump's "Praise Be to Allah" Easter Sunday tweet was a calculated attempt to appear "unstable and insulting" to bring Iranians to the negotiating table, but Emily Jashinsky suggests such rhetoric normalizes US threats of genocide and war crimes, undermining moral standing.
• Trita Parsi argues Donald Trump's tendency to declare premature victory and humiliate Iran after de-escalatory steps sabotages his own diplomatic goals, preventing a stable deal, calling it "art of the self-sabotage."
• Krystal cites polling showing 61% of US adults oppose further military action in Iran, with 74% of Americans under 30 opposing, highlighting the political limits on Donald Trump’s war strategy.
• Krystal reports Israel launched a drone strike in South Lebanon, killing one, almost immediately after Donald Trump declared Israel "prohibited from bombing Lebanon." Barak Ravid revealed the IDF systematically destroys civilian buildings in Lebanese villages via a "money plow" policy.
• Krystal highlights a viral image of an IDF soldier toppling and smashing a statue of Jesus in southern Lebanon, which the IDF later verified and condemned, promising an investigation. Emily Jashinsky notes this profoundly impacts US public opinion, especially among Christians.
• Krystal and Emily Jashinsky discuss documented instances of Israeli soldiers allegedly using dogs to rape Palestinian inmates in a prison known for torture, noting the lack of US media attention or official Israeli apology due to perceived Islamophobia and a supremacist ideology.
• Ryan Grim notes Ukraine attacked the Rosneft oil depot in Krasnodar, Kray, Russia, burning dozens of tanks, at the same time the US lifted sanctions on Russian oil to lower prices, potentially helping Iran.
• Krystal observes Benjamin Netanyahu and the Israeli public desire continued war, as the current outcome is a political "utter disaster" for him, with his trial delayed due to ongoing conflict.

Politics (2)

• New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani announced a 'pied-à-terre' tax on luxury properties worth over $5 million whose owners don't live there full-time. The tax is projected to raise at least $500 million annually for city services.
• Krystal argues AOC has withdrawn from media combat and lacks the political instincts of a movement leader. She says AOC's avoidance of difficult public engagements and her non-endorsement reveal an unwillingness to lead under pressure.

Regulation (1)

• Krystal argues the backlash from billionaires like Linda Yaccarino and Donald Trump to the pied-à-terre tax proves its political effectiveness. She says the tax is a tiny burden for the ultra-wealthy but a potent symbolic victory for Mamdani.

Labor (1)

• Senator Mark Warner predicts recent college graduate unemployment could reach 30% within two years. He claims CEOs privately plan significant job eliminations and have drastically reduced new hire classes.

AI & Tech (1)

• Krystal argues that AI-driven job displacement necessitates a radical rethinking of the social contract and public ownership of technology, not just promises of future universal high income from tech oligarchs.

Elections (1)

• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez declined to endorse her former chief of staff, Shycott Chakerbody, in his congressional primary. She gave a non-answer about her broader role, which the hosts interpret as a sign of personal friction and political reticence.

Business (3)

• Noam Scheiber documented a generation of college graduates facing stagnating wages, overqualified service jobs, and radicalizing debt, contradicting the promised returns on education.
• Scheiber cited the case of Maya Barrett, a Towson University graduate who stayed at an Apple Store as a 'Creative' after failing to land marketing jobs, later helping unionize her store.
• Scheiber argued universities extract value via inflated degrees like video game design, marketed as vocational paths but offering few jobs, while government-subsidized debt shields them from risk.

Politics (1)

• Scheiber noted that Zora Mamdani won 84% of college-educated voters under thirty in a New York City election, showing the political potency of this disaffected demographic.

AI & Tech (4)

• Scheiber said AI hasn't yet caused the job losses he describes but is an emotional accelerant; Hollywood studios bungled strikes by ignoring writers' reasonable AI demands.
• Allbirds pivoted from a failed shoe brand to 'New Bird AI', a GPU-as-a-service company, adding $127M in value with a 379% five-day stock gain despite no fundamental change.
• Public opinion on data centers in Virginia flipped from 69% comfortable in 2023 to 59% uncomfortable in 2026, with local candidates winning elections by opposing them.
• The Maine legislature approved a moratorium on building large data centers, marking a significant legislative backlash against AI infrastructure buildout.

Business (3)

• The national average gas price is $4.11 per gallon, with California paying $5.87. Emily cites an AP analysis showing the average household will pay $740 more for gas this year, nearly erasing the estimated $748 average tax refund increase.
• A Farm Bureau survey of over 5,700 farmers found 70% say fertilizer is now too expensive to purchase all they need. Nitrogen fertilizer prices have risen more than 30%, and UREA prices have increased 47% since the end of February.
• Live cattle wholesale prices in Chicago have reached an all-time high. Sager notes that food-at-home inflation is running at 3% year-over-year, outpacing wage growth of 2.4%.

Politics (2)

• Polling analyst Harry Enten shows Trump's net approval with non-college white voters has plummeted from +32 in February 2025 to -2, a 34-point shift. On the economy with that group, his rating shifted over 40 points to -15.
• J Street polling finds 40% of American Jewish voters say they are less likely to support a Democratic primary candidate endorsed by AIPAC, and two-thirds oppose AIPAC spending money from Republican donors in Democratic primaries.

Protocol (2)

• Jack Mallers notes Bitcoin's price at $76,080, placing its market cap above $1.5 trillion, and it is 39.7% down from its all-time high of $126,160.
• Strike has lowered minimums for its lending and Bitcoin line of credit products, now offering as low as $5,000 for lines of credit and $10,000 for term loans, and launched its line of credit in Texas and Colorado.

Business (2)

• China's exports sharply slowed in March, missing forecasts, while its silver imports reached a multi-year high, indicating global supply chain disruptions impacting even major manufacturing economies.
• Mallers expresses confusion regarding MicroStrategy's financing strategy, noting its focus on Bitcoin conviction rather than business profitability, questioning how it sustains perpetual preferred obligations with high dividends.

Macro (3)

• The UAE is seeking a currency swap line with the US, which Luke Groman interprets as a concession request from the US to maintain the petrodollar system, or risk the UAE transacting oil in CNY or other currencies.
• Former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson stated the US needs an "emergency break the glass plan" for its Treasury market, highlighting the danger if the Fed becomes the sole buyer of government debt amid rising interest rates.
• US consumer delinquencies are at their highest level since 2017, posing a significant risk to the US economy which relies heavily on consumer spending, making it vulnerable to unemployment from AI.

Trade (1)

• China's CIPS payment system, effectively a gold-backed alternative to the dollar, saw increased volume in March, which Mallers suggests is linked to Iranian oil trade.

Markets (2)

• Mallers observes a historic divergence between the S&P 500 reaching all-time highs and consumer sentiment hitting all-time lows, attributing this gap to policies that debase currency and inflate assets.
• Mallers believes current market volatility is artificially suppressed by engineered market structure where political headlines trigger systematic trading by quant funds, leading to asset purchases and lower VIX levels.

Markets (1)

• Oil prices, specifically Brent crude, initially dropped to $85 a barrel last week due to market misinterpretation of Aragchi's tweet, but later jumped by $10 a barrel.

Energy (4)

• The New Safe Confinement (NSC), built for $1.6 billion by 45 nations and orchestrated by the EBRD, stands 108 meters tall, 250 meters wide, and 150 meters long.
• Following the strike, visible flames were extinguished in two hours, but smoldering between the NSC's internal and external layers burned for weeks, gutting about half of the internal membrane.
• Engineers decided to fix the New Safe Confinement in place, rather than moving it, due to the high risk of leaving the unstable original sarcophagus unprotected.
• The estimated repair cost for the NSC is 500 million euros, a figure expected to rise, and Rafael Mariano Grossi of the IAEA warns that radioactive release risks will grow without repairs.

History (1)

• Sunday marks the 40th anniversary of the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear accident.

Business (4)

• Don Wineland notes that global fast food chains like McDonald's, KFC, and Starbucks are now rapidly expanding into rural Chinese cities, such as Handtuan, as major cities are saturated.
• Saturation in large cities means 70% of KFCs and 60% of McDonald's in China are within a 10-minute bicycle ride of another location.
• Many global fast food chains in China, including McDonald's (owned by Cidic Capital) and Yum China (KFC/Pizza Hut), are now predominantly backed by large local Chinese investors.
• Local investors provide the capital for expansion into smaller, riskier markets, but challenges persist, including a lack of suitable real estate and competition from cheaper, locally tailored Chinese brands.

Protocol (7)

• Citi Group analysis found that a portfolio allocation split between gold and Bitcoin improves returns in bond bull markets and provides resilience during bear steepening cycles tied to fiscal concerns.
• Citi analyst Alex Saunders noted Bitcoin has risen 9% over the past two months while spot gold declined 4%, and that Bitcoin often outperforms gold when bond markets weaken.
• The U.S. government moved 8 Bitcoin linked to the 2016 Bitfinex hack, worth $606,000, to Coinbase Prime, raising questions about its intended destination despite court-mandated restitution to Bitfinex.
• The U.S. government holds seized cryptocurrency valued at about $24.5 billion, which it said would form part of a national strategic Bitcoin reserve.
• TRM Labs data shows around $141 billion in stablecoin transactions last year were linked to illicit activity, and investigator ZachXBT documented approximately $420 million in suspicious USDC flows since 2022 that went unblocked.
• Charles Schwab is launching direct spot Bitcoin and Ethereum trading for retail clients through its Schwab Crypto platform, with Paxos handling sub-custody and a transaction fee of 20 basis points.
• David Bennett reported a bot attack caused Fountain's API to backlog Podcast Index with 500,000 polling requests, preventing his last two episodes from distributing and cratering his download numbers.

BTC Markets (1)

• Bitcoin derivatives data shows funding rates on perpetual futures have remained negative for over six weeks, indicating persistent bearish positioning that historically precedes upward breakouts as short sellers cover.

Stablecoins (2)

• Circle faces a class action lawsuit from Drift Protocol investors who lost $285 million in an April 1 exploit, accusing the firm of failing to freeze stolen USDC during an eight-hour cross-chain transfer window.
• Tether committed up to $127.5 million and other partners $20 million to help recover funds from the Drift Protocol hack, with CEO Paolo Arduino positioning Tether as more responsive than Circle.

Politics (2)

• SEC Chair Paul Atkins launched an official podcast, signaling a regulatory shift toward cooperation, with the agency dismissing high-profile crypto cases and seeing enforcement actions fall 22% and monetary relief drop to $2.7 billion from $8.2 billion.
• In the Roman Storm acquittal hearing, the defense argued only 15% of Tornado Cash's transaction volume during the contested period was illicit, questioning what threshold constitutes criminal intent.

AI & Tech (1)

• A security researcher discovered sophisticated counterfeit Ledger Nano S Plus devices on a Chinese marketplace, featuring tampered hardware and firmware designed to steal seed phrases via a malicious Ledger Live app.