04-22-2026Price:

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US trades republican identity for empire to save dollar

Wednesday, April 22, 2026 · from 4 podcasts, 5 episodes
4 SOURCESJack Mallers ShowTFTCWhat Bitcoin DidBankless
  • The US is adopting an imperial strategy to maintain dollar dominance.
  • Tactics include controlling sea lanes, monopolizing rare earths, and suppressing interest rates.
  • Global fragmentation is forcing a return to hard assets and neutral money.

The United States is mutating. According to analysis on both TFTC and What Bitcoin Did, the nation is transitioning from a republic into an assertive empire to prolong the dollar's global dominance.

This imperial playbook is already in motion. The strategy focuses on controlling maritime chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz, where the US Navy recently disabled an Iranian tanker, the Tuska, for defying sanctions. On TFTC, Marty Bent points to a parallel effort in resource control: a $2.8 billion government-backed deal to secure rare earth mineral supplies, a move described as wartime-style industrial policy.

This aggression is a response to the dollar's slow decay. Historian Barry Eichengreen, speaking on Bankless, compared the process to a melting iceberg. The dollar's share of global reserves has slid from over 70% to under 60% over the last 25 years. He warns that dominant currencies erode slowly for decades before collapsing suddenly.

To fund this imperial project, the Treasury is quietly subjugating the Federal Reserve. On What Bitcoin Did, Jeff Ross argues the Treasury is now conducting a stealth form of yield curve control, manipulating bond issuance to keep interest rates artificially low. This financial repression allows the government to fund massive deficits for onshoring and military buildups, effectively taxing savers to pay for the empire.

This policy creates a stark domestic divide. On The Jack Mallers Show, Jack Mallers highlights the canyon between soaring asset prices and collapsing middle-class purchasing power. This wealth transfer from wage earners to asset owners is creating a recipe for social instability at home, even as the empire projects power abroad.

Analysts disagree on the ultimate economic outcome. Ross predicts a period of sustained, structural inflation between 3-6%. Ansel Lindner, however, argued on What Bitcoin Did that deglobalization will trigger a massive credit contraction, making a systemic deflationary bust the greater threat.

As global trust evaporates, so does reliance on the dollar. Lindner and Ross both note that Iran is now accepting Bitcoin and Yuan for oil shipments through Hormuz. This is a practical shift toward neutral, trustless settlement in a world breaking into regional blocs. The 75-year experiment with a US-led fiat system is ending, forcing a global scramble for hard collateral.

PoliticsBusinessMacroWarTrade
MicroStrategyBitcoinFederal ReserveIranStrait of HormuzUnited States

Source Intelligence

- Deep dive into what was said in the episodes

The Jack Mallers Show
The Jack Mallers Show

Jack Mallers

All Roads Lead to Bitcoin • Apr 21

  • Mallers describes the ongoing Middle East conflict as having no clear resolution, impacting global supply chains with the Strait of Hormuz remaining effectively closed.
  • The US Navy intercepted an Iranian cargo ship, Tausa, in the Gulf of Oman, blowing a hole in its engine room for refusing orders, citing US Treasury sanctions against the vessel for prior illegal activity.
  • China's exports sharply slowed in March, missing forecasts, while its silver imports reached a multi-year high, indicating global supply chain disruptions impacting even major manufacturing economies.
  • Jack Mallers claims Iran's strategy is to destabilize the US financially through monetary means, not military, targeting the US debt-laden financial system via energy market disruption and inflation.
  • The UAE is seeking a currency swap line with the US, which Luke Groman interprets as a concession request from the US to maintain the petrodollar system, or risk the UAE transacting oil in CNY or other currencies.
  • China's CIPS payment system, effectively a gold-backed alternative to the dollar, saw increased volume in March, which Mallers suggests is linked to Iranian oil trade.
  • Former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson stated the US needs an "emergency break the glass plan" for its Treasury market, highlighting the danger if the Fed becomes the sole buyer of government debt amid rising interest rates.
  • Mallers observes a historic divergence between the S&P 500 reaching all-time highs and consumer sentiment hitting all-time lows, attributing this gap to policies that debase currency and inflate assets.
  • Mallers believes current market volatility is artificially suppressed by engineered market structure where political headlines trigger systematic trading by quant funds, leading to asset purchases and lower VIX levels.
  • US consumer delinquencies are at their highest level since 2017, posing a significant risk to the US economy which relies heavily on consumer spending, making it vulnerable to unemployment from AI.
  • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant expressed confidence in falling core inflation despite the Iran war and called for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, advocating for Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair.
  • Mallers expresses confusion regarding MicroStrategy's financing strategy, noting its focus on Bitcoin conviction rather than business profitability, questioning how it sustains perpetual preferred obligations with high dividends.
Also from this episode: (5)

Protocol (2)

  • Jack Mallers notes Bitcoin's price at $76,080, placing its market cap above $1.5 trillion, and it is 39.7% down from its all-time high of $126,160.
  • Strike has lowered minimums for its lending and Bitcoin line of credit products, now offering as low as $5,000 for lines of credit and $10,000 for term loans, and launched its line of credit in Texas and Colorado.

AI & Tech (1)

  • The CEO of Anthropic, a creator of Claude, warns AI is rapidly progressing from a high school student's intelligence to a college student's, posing a risk of widespread entry-level white-collar job replacement.

Culture (1)

  • Jack Mallers announced his engagement, sharing his philosophy that family, like Bitcoin, represents being part of something bigger and lasting longer than oneself, emphasizing love, community, and purpose.

Banking (1)

  • Strike completed its first proof of reserves for its lending product, aiming to provide transparency for customers whose collateral is held for credit loans, with plans for segregated addresses visible on the blockchain.
MacroBankingInflationBTC MarketsAgents
TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast
TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast

Marty Bent

Ten31 Timestamp: The Empire Strikes Back • Apr 20

Also from this episode: (19)

Other (19)

  • The co-host notes that US foreign policy increasingly exhibits characteristics of an 'imperial' power, reflecting traits of a declining great power rather than a republic, similar to historical empires.
  • Marty Bent observes that despite geopolitical volatility, WTI crude oil prices have fallen to $86 per barrel, suggesting a potential de-escalation in Middle East tensions and a calming effect on markets.
  • The co-host highlights how daily headlines regarding geopolitical events, like the Middle East conflict, can rapidly shift from ceasefire to blockade and back, rendering them unreliable for market participants.
  • Marty Bent reports Bitcoin surged to $78,000 on March 17th and has diverged from software stocks over the last month, with Bitcoin up 6% while software stocks declined by 1%.
  • The co-host suggests the current market positioning indicates a desire for upward movement, with stocks at all-time highs and Bitcoin holding strong despite significant US military actions, providing the administration leverage.
  • The co-host posits that US administration calculus prioritizes economic damage to China over elevated domestic gas prices, framing this as a strategic move in a broader meta-war between the two superpowers.
  • The co-host identifies a trend of US 'imperial nationalization and industrialization,' citing a federal investment in Intel and a new partnership with Indonesia, strategically important for its influence over the Strait of Malacca.
  • Marty Bent notes Mark Carney's critical comments regarding US-Canada relations, suggesting his strategic placement as a 'Davos class economic actor' in Canada serves incumbent power structures.
  • The co-host highlights US Rare Earths' $2.8 billion acquisition of Cerro Verde Group, aiming to become the global leader in rare earth metals critical for AI and advanced military applications.
  • The Cerro Verde deal includes a major financing package from the government-aligned Development Finance Corporation and a 15-year, 100% off-take agreement with price floors, demonstrating explicit industrial policy.
  • The co-host argues the de-dollarization narrative is currently challenged, citing Norway's sovereign wealth fund's plan to maintain US asset holdings and Gulf states issuing dollar-denominated bonds to shore up finances.
  • The co-host suggests an imperial US could delay de-dollarization by leveraging alliances and maritime control points to create captive buyers of dollar-linked assets, even if the dollar's long-term dominance is questioned.
  • The co-host contends that regardless of the dollar's fate, increased dollar claims issuance by the US will ultimately benefit Bitcoin as the scarcest asset, especially as nations prioritize sovereign self-custody.
  • Marty Bent highlights Michael Saylor's 'Stretch' preferred stock option from MicroStrategy as a memetically powerful new conduit for institutional capital to flow into Bitcoin.
  • The co-host and Marty Bent discuss MicroStrategy's rapid Bitcoin acquisition through Stretch, nearing 100,000 BTC, which contributes to their total reported holdings of 820,000 BTC.
  • Marty Bent warns about the risks of DeFi protocols building derivatives on Stretch, citing recent hacks that drained multiple DeFi protocols due to insecure virtual machines and smart contracts.
  • Marty Bent reports on an institutional panel at the Up Next conference, where BlackRock, Coinbase, and Anchorage Digital indicated investors' quantum risk concerns, with a goal to make Bitcoin quantum-resistant by 2029.
  • Marty Bent criticizes institutions for appealing to NIST's authority on quantum resistance, recalling Satoshi Nakamoto chose cryptographic libraries outside NIST recommendations due to concerns about embedded backdoors.
  • The co-host advises against making Bitcoin protocol decisions based on short-term price concerns, warning that such 'action bias' optimizes for poor long-term stability and sustainability for any system.
MacroEnergyBTC MarketsRegulation
What Bitcoin Did
What Bitcoin Did

Danny Knowles

This Is The End Of The Dollar System | Jeff Ross • Apr 17

  • Ross expects Bitcoin's bear market to persist, predicting one more leg down to sub-$60k levels. He bases this on negative momentum, tightening liquidity, and a strengthening dollar, though he acknowledges a recent dollar break lower could support risk assets.
  • He outlines a 'three burners' macro framework: liquidity, manufacturing PMI, and leverage. Ross sees the 'liquidity blob' expanding due to U.S. fiscal war spending, a recovery in the ISM Manufacturing PMI above 50, and a resurgence in bank lending.
  • Ross believes the U.S. is entering a period of 'structural inflation' in the 3-6% CPI range, driven by costly onshoring of manufacturing and military buildup. He argues this environment necessitates eventual yield curve control, a form of financial repression that erodes citizen purchasing power.
  • He asserts the U.S. is already in World War III, a conflict seeded in 2008 and marked by proxy wars. Ross predicts a U.S. move to seize Iran's Karg Island to control the Strait of Hormuz, aiming to pressure Iran and gain leverage over China, which is dependent on oil imports.
  • Ross forecasts a multipolar end to U.S. dollar hegemony, with oil increasingly traded in yuan and gold. He interprets U.S. inaction over yuan-based Strait of Hormuz payments as tacit acceptance of this new reality, marking the end of the petrodollar system.
  • He views the Federal Reserve as currently irrelevant, 'neutered' by the Treasury, and expects it to become a tool for yield curve control only when war borrowing overwhelms private demand for U.S. debt.
  • Ross argues AI-driven 'jobless recovery' will create a desperate white-collar class, necessitating a wealth redistribution like UBI. He claims this is not socialist dogma but a pragmatic response to humans competing against superior AI, citing potential civil unrest.
  • He references a historical theory that a hegemon's decline begins when its debt interest payments exceed military spending, a threshold the U.S. has now crossed.
Also from this episode: (1)

BTC Markets (1)

  • Jeff Ross, a fund manager, argues the 100-day moving average is a key technical resistance level for Bitcoin. He notes Bitcoin was rejected at that level in late October and mid-January 2025, and saw another tentative cross on the day of recording.
MacroTradeWarMarkets

Why Everyone Is Wrong About Inflation | Ansel Lindner • Apr 15

  • Ansel Lindner sees deglobalization, not war, as the overriding geopolitical trend, creating low-trust regional blocs that break global credit markets and require a neutral monetary settlement layer.
  • Lindner argues the credit-based monetary system will malfunction in a deglobalized world, potentially leading to a deflationary bust where widespread defaults could cause the supply of credit money to contract to zero.
  • Lindner views Bitcoin as a superior geopolitical hedge, arguing for its inclusion alongside gold and treasuries based on studies showing its long-term returns are uncorrelated to global instability, not its immediate price reaction.
  • Lindner's deflation thesis focuses on money supply contraction through shrinking global credit, not falling prices, driven by deglobalization reducing the world's carrying capacity for debt.
  • Lindner forecasts a surplus of 3-4 million barrels of oil per day in 2026, citing major forecasting firms, and expects the current price spike from the Hormuz conflict to fade faster than the Ukraine-Russia war spike did.
  • Lindner argues sustainable high inflation requires economic growth and productivity gains, which are absent, making the overriding pressure in the credit system contractionary toward a bust.
  • Lindner predicts the fiat system's end state will be countries backing their currencies with Bitcoin or gold, forced by credit collapse and a market demand for collateral in a low-trust world, not hyperinflation.
  • Lindner sees Bitcoin as both an inflation and deflation hedge: its fixed supply guards against money printing, while its lack of counterparty risk makes it desirable during credit defaults.
  • Lindner predicts the Federal Reserve will lose its independence and be subsumed under the Treasury within a decade, citing Trump's attempt to fire Governor Lisa Cook as a precedent-setting move.
  • Lindner argues Fed actions like QE and rate cuts have limited power to manifest growth; he attributes any coming US economic boom to onshoring efforts, not monetary policy.
  • Lindner is skeptical AI will create a post-scarcity economy, noting its current low cost is subsidized and that it will likely exacerbate a K-shaped global divergence, leaving developing nations behind.
  • Lindner highlights Japan's demographic crisis, calculating it is nearing a 1% annual population loss, which he views as unsustainable for supporting retirement systems and the functioning economy.
Also from this episode: (5)

Protocol (3)

  • Lindner speculates China will ease its Bitcoin ban, viewing it as a potential attack vector on the dollar, following Iran's move to accept Bitcoin for Strait of Hormuz transit fees.
  • Lindner distinguishes money from currency: Bitcoin is the base money, while a currency like the dollar is a denomination measure; he believes Bitcoin will achieve its monetary roles primarily by backing national currencies, not through direct peer-to-peer on-chain use.
  • Lindner sees sidechains, not just Layer 2s, as a viable scaling solution allowing different jurisdictions to have their own transaction rules while remaining cryptographically pegged to Bitcoin's base layer.

BTC Markets (2)

  • Lindner attributes Bitcoin's stalled price to options markets suppressing volatility and supply resistance from OG holders selling at the $100,000 psychological level, surprising him relative to his 2025 bull market expectations.
  • Lindner expects Bitcoin's next major price move to be fast and furious, potentially triggered by a geopolitical catalyst like China easing its ban, breaking the current options regime and causing a reinforcing volatility loop higher.
MacroBTC MarketsDiplomacyFedTrade
Bankless
Bankless

Why Hasn't The Dollar Fallen? | Lessons from Currency Historian Barry Eichengreen • Apr 16

  • Spanish silver coins were legal tender in the United States until 1857. They dominated early American commerce due to a British prohibition on colonial mints and immense silver deposits in Peru and Mexico.
  • Spanish silver became the first global currency, circulating on every continent via transatlantic and transpacific trade routes like the Manila galleons.
  • Eichengreen says a currency becomes international through economic factors like trade volume and liquid capital markets, plus political factors like rule of law, checks on executive power, and strong alliances.
  • Military security is a common but not universal prerequisite for international currency status, protecting borders and trade routes. Florence's florin succeeded through finance and trade alone.
  • Eichengreen says every leading global currency except the Spanish dollar belonged to a political democracy or republic, a challenge for China's renminbi aspirations due to arbitrary rule under Xi Jinping.
  • International currencies fall due to economic decline, military defeat, or currency debasement, often with long lags between economic decay and loss of status.
  • Dollar dominance is fraying, with its share of central bank reserves dropping about half a percentage point annually from over 70% twenty-five years ago to under 60% today.
  • Eichengreen sees two scenarios for the dollar: a gradual decline allowing alternatives like the euro to develop, or a rapid crisis if foreigners deem US leadership unstable, causing market dislocation.
  • Current dollar dominance metrics include invoicing 40% of global trade, linking to 50% of global GDP, and involvement in 90% of foreign exchange transactions.
  • He doubts the renminbi will achieve global status due to China's lack of rule of law and its geopolitical rivalry with the West, though it may gain regional use among allies.
  • Gold serves as a reliable store of value and collateral, but its physical weight makes it impractical for active payments if removed from financial centers to avoid sanctions.
  • His investment advice for a potential monetary transition is diversification, noting shifts between dominant currencies are rarely smooth.
Also from this episode: (4)

Markets (1)

  • Barry Eichengreen argues the dollar is in the early stages of its decline as central banks diversify from US Treasuries into gold and non-traditional reserve currencies.

History (1)

  • The Byzantine solidus was a stable gold coin with a 700-year reign, surpassing even the 1950s US dollar in stability according to historian Robert Lopez. Eichengreen credits Byzantine fiscal prudence.

Digital Sovereignty (1)

  • Eichengreen argues digital technology weakens network effects that favor a single currency, making it easier to use and exchange different currencies instantly.

AI Infrastructure (1)

  • Eichengreen believes blockchain payment rails will be most consequential, likely running central bank digital currencies and tokenized bank deposits rather than volatile cryptos like Bitcoin.
MacroBankingFedHistoryMarkets

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