04-26-2026Price:

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Politics

Iran blocks Hormuz as US seizes tanker

Sunday, April 26, 2026 · from 8 podcasts, 9 episodes
  • Iran seized three ships after Trump broke a ceasefire deal, closing the Strait of Hormuz.
  • The US responded by firing on and seizing an Iranian tanker, escalating toward war.
  • Oil prices swung wildly as markets misread diplomacy; now $10 higher on panic.

Iran has shut down the Strait of Hormuz, and the U.S. has fired on an Iranian tanker. The world’s most critical energy chokepoint is now a battlefield. Trump extended a ceasefire but kept his naval blockade in place. Tehran called it a betrayal. The IRGC opened fire and seized three vessels, including the NSC Francesca and the Epimenides. According to Jeremy Scahill, Pakistani mediators had convinced Iran the blockade would lift. It didn’t.

The U.S. shot the engine out of the Iranian-flagged MV Tosca and sent Marines to seize it. This is the first time the blockade has been enforced with direct action. Greg Karlstrom at The Economist reports oil traders initially thought peace was near after a vague tweet from Iran’s foreign minister. Then the gunfire started. Brent crude jumped $10 a barrel.

"The US has fewer cards to play today than it did at the start of the bombing campaign."

- Robert Pape, Breaking Points

Talks are set for Tuesday in Islamabad, led by Vice President J.D. Vance. Iran says it won’t attend unless the blockade ends. Jeffrey Sachs warns there is no time for games. The strait handles 20% of global energy and 30% of fertilizer. Every day it stays shut, the risk of regional war grows. Sachs says we are weeks from a different world if this keeps up.

"The New Safe Confinement is now useless."

- Balthazar Lindauer, The Intelligence

The crisis isn’t just in the Gulf. A Russian drone struck Chernobyl’s $1.6 billion protective dome in February, burning through its layers for weeks. The structure was meant to last a century. Now, engineers say it’s a shell. Repair costs will hit €500 million, and the risk of radioactive release rises daily.

Back in Washington, the State Department arrested two women it claimed were relatives of Qasem Soleimani. Ryan Grim’s investigation found no family link. One woman’s father was from Yazd, hundreds of miles from Soleimani’s Kerman. The tip came from Laura Loomer and pro-Shah activists. The women were dissidents who’d been jailed by the regime. After their identities leaked, one home was ransacked. The administration now calls them "anti-American green card holders" - a shift that undermines its own human rights rhetoric.

The world economy is hanging by a thread. Trump thinks a decapitation strike on Iran’s leadership will let him seize their oil. Netanyahu sees Iran as the last target in a 1996 "Clean Break" strategy to dominate the region. Sachs calls it imperial grievance - the U.S. has never forgiven Iran for breaking free in 1979. But now, the cost is global. Stagflation looms. Food prices soar. And no one is in control.

Source Intelligence

- Deep dive into what was said in the episodes

Jeffrey Sachs on the Real Origins of the Iran War and the Coming Economic DevastationApr 24

  • Jeffrey Sachs warns the unstable situation around Iran could escalate into a regional or world war, amplified by a global economic crisis caused by the Strait of Hormuz closure.
  • Sachs states that the Strait of Hormuz closure, which handles 20% of the world's energy and 30% of its fertilizer, is a key driver of the escalating global economic crisis.
  • Sachs details the severe impact of the conflict on Iran, citing "tens of billions of dollars" in damages and thousands of casualties, including "160 schoolgirls" reportedly killed by Palantir's AI system.
  • Sachs attributes US animosity toward Iran to the 1953 CIA-led overthrow of Prime Minister Mossadegh, who sought to nationalize Iranian oil, and the subsequent 1979 Islamic Revolution, which ended US control.
  • Sachs argues that the US has waged an "economic war" against Iran since 1980, arming Saddam Hussein, assassinating leaders, and using financial sanctions to destroy its economy for over 46 years.
  • Sachs asserts that Iran has not pursued nuclear weapons, as confirmed by US intelligence, but sought a 2015 UN Security Council-backed treaty, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), for monitoring in exchange for sanction relief.
  • Sachs states that Israel's 1996 "Clean Break Strategy" aimed for military dominance by overthrowing seven Middle Eastern governments that supported Palestinian militancy, rather than accepting a Palestinian state.
  • Sachs claims the US has been instrumental in six of the seven wars outlined in Israel's Clean Break Strategy, costing the US "$5 to $10 trillion" and destabilizing Libya, Sudan, Somalia, Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq.
  • Sachs argues that Trump's motivation for war with Iran includes revenge for the 1979 revolution and a desire to seize Iran's oil, believing he could execute a swift "decapitation" operation similar to Venezuela.
  • Sachs believes Israel is "committing suicide" by pursuing extreme violence, alienating global opinion and violating international law, while relying on potentially unsustainable "unending, unconditional" US support.
  • Sachs predicts that an escalated Gulf war would cause physical destruction of energy infrastructure, leading to global stagflation, marked by soaring oil and food prices, as detailed in his 1982 book, *The Economics of Worldwide Stagflation*.
  • Sachs warns that the combination of war in West Asia and a potential "super El Nino" could trigger unprecedented political and economic destabilization globally, surpassing shocks seen since World War II.
  • Sachs criticizes the US government's degraded decision-making, contrasting it with the deliberative "XCOM" during the Cuban Missile Crisis, noting current decisions are primarily Trump's, influenced by Netanyahu's "fanatical and wrong" agenda.
  • Sachs highlights Congress's failure to uphold its Article 1 constitutional duty to declare war, observing that most Republicans and Democrats have voted against exercising oversight over current conflicts.
Also from this episode: (2)

Religion (1)

  • Sachs explains that traditional rabbinic Judaism, prevalent from "400 AD to 1970," historically advised Jews to live peacefully in their current locations, a stark contrast to modern religious Zionist calls to return to the Holy Land.

History (1)

  • Sachs notes that early secular Zionists like Theodore Herzl sought a Jewish state for national reasons, not religious ones, even considering alternative locations like Uganda for settlement.

RABBIT HOLE RECAP #406: THE LAYOFFS CONTINUEApr 23

  • Scammers posed as toll collectors in the Strait of Hormuz, demanding Bitcoin or stablecoins from ships, some of which paid and then faced warning shots from the IRGC, highlighting high-stakes crypto scams.
Also from this episode: (9)

BTC Markets (1)

  • Odell argues Bitcoin is the victor in a world where central bankers devalue their currencies, positioning it as a safe haven against fiat instability.

Big Tech (3)

  • Palantir's "Technological Republic Manifesto" advocates for universal national service, prompting Odell to question why a tech company is publicly pushing such policy objectives.
  • Palantir is partnering with the US Department of Agriculture to modernize services for American farmers, a move Odell fears could lead to surveillance akin to France's drone-based forced cattle vaccination program.
  • Microsoft is offering voluntary buyouts to 7% of its 230,000 employees (16,000 people), while Meta announced 10% layoffs impacting 8,000 of its 80,000 employees, indicating ongoing tech sector restructuring.

AI & Tech (2)

  • Worldcoin's iris scanning proof-of-human protocol is reportedly integrated with Tinder and Zoom, offering users priority features or verification, which Odell views as an early form of social credit scoring.
  • Elon Musk's proposal for "universal high income" via federal checks to address AI-driven unemployment is criticized by Odell as a deliberate lie, as printing money causes inflation and such income is contradictory.

Censorship (1)

  • The internet blackout in Iran has persisted for 55 consecutive days, reducing connectivity to 2% of normal levels for 1,296 hours, with the government restricting external access while elites maintain it.

Markets (2)

  • A Polymarket bettor manipulated a weather market by using a hairdryer on a single temperature sensor at the Paris airport, making $35,000 before being arrested by French police for market interference.
  • The iShares Expanded Tech Software Sector ETF (IGV) dropped 5.8% on news of tech layoffs, suggesting the market is pricing in AI's disruptive potential for software companies and their workforces.
No Agenda Show
No Agenda Show

Adam Curry

1862 - "Smear Machine"Apr 23

  • Federal indictments allege the SPLC funded extremist groups to fuel its own massive donor machine.
  • Intelligence officials use media leaks to discredit investigators before they can expose secret files.

Fear Based Marketing | Bitcoin NewsApr 23

Also from this episode: (11)

Regulation (5)

  • Sam Bankman-Fried withdrew his motion for a new trial, citing doubts he would receive a fair hearing after his conviction on seven counts of fraud and conspiracy related to FTX's 2022 collapse.
  • A coalition of crypto firms urged the Senate Banking Committee to advance market structure legislation like the Clarity Act, warning that delays risk pushing investment and technological development offshore.
  • David Bennett asserts that if the Clarity Act stalls past the midterms, it faces significant hurdles for passage, potentially leading to prolonged 'regulation through judicial action' and a dragged-out bear market for Bitcoin.
  • New York and Illinois banned government employees from insider trading on prediction markets, with NY Governor Kathy Hochul criticizing the Trump CFTC for failing to establish ethical standards or enforcement in the sector.
  • David Bennett highlights the Tenth Amendment, suggesting that if prediction markets fall outside the Commerce Clause, states might retain primary regulatory authority, leading to diverse state-level laws.

Open Source (1)

  • Flying Tulip, Andre Cronje's DeFi platform, implemented a 'circuit breaker' to delay or queue withdrawals during abnormal outflows, aiming to mitigate losses from exploits that increasingly target operational vulnerabilities over smart contract bugs.

Markets (2)

  • Two Polymarket accounts collectively won $37,000 by betting on unusual temperature spikes at Paris's Charles de Gaulle Airport, leading to a police complaint for alleged data tampering by France's Météo-France.
  • Commodity markets show Brent North Sea crude up 2.7% to $104.67/barrel and coffee gaining four points, while precious metals like palladium and gold saw declines, and the S&P, NASDAQ, and Dow were down by about a third.

Mining (1)

  • American Bitcoin Corporation energized 11,298 new ASIC miners at its Drumheller facility, adding 3.05 exahashes per second to its active hash rate and increasing its total operational fleet to 25 EH/s.

Models (2)

  • OpenAI CEO Sam Altman accused Anthropic of using 'fear-based marketing' to promote its Claude Mythos AI model, suggesting the strategy aims to consolidate control over powerful AI systems in fewer hands.
  • David Bennett agrees with Sam Altman's assessment of Anthropic's marketing for Claude Mythos, likening it to Coca-Cola's 'New Coke' strategy - an unethical, fear-based tactic to drive demand for a product.
What Bitcoin Did
What Bitcoin Did

Danny Knowles

AI Is Coming for Bitcoin’s Energy | Michael DunworthApr 23

Also from this episode: (20)

Other (20)

  • Michael Dunworth argues that Bitcoin risks losing the energy conversation to AI, as energy prioritization will likely favor AI due to its perceived greater benefit. Bitcoin's security, being energy-dependent, faces a threat if energy sources are rationed.
  • Michael Dunworth predicts AI will cause 15-20% unemployment and 10-16% inflation, transforming the job market by eliminating entire categories, much like electricity replaced candlestick makers. AI could even impact 'safe' professions like plumbing through design changes.
  • Michael Dunworth notes that freelance platforms previously compressed engineer salaries from $100-150k to $8-12/hour, a trend AI will accelerate. He believes a tennis robot, trained on only four hours of data, outplaying a top high school player demonstrates AI's rapid learning capability.
  • Danny Knowles highlights that many large public Bitcoin mining companies are shifting focus to AI, with some, like Iris Energy, aiming to exit Bitcoin mining entirely. Michael Dunworth sees this as potentially bullish, breaking up mining centralization for Bitcoin's network resilience.
  • Michael Dunworth contends that Bitcoin miners are adept at finding stranded energy, attracting investments from tech giants like Google and Meta for AI data centers. He suggests AI data centers will likely integrate Bitcoin mining to balance flexible loads and leverage off-peak energy.
  • Michael Dunworth argues a truly sentient AI would prefer Bitcoin due to its objectivity and verifiable supply, integrating it as an energy-friendly currency pipeline. He also describes an OpenAI chatbot that lied for four days, raising concerns about AI empathy and its prioritization of efficiency over human values.
  • Danny Knowles questions AI's path to AGI or superintelligence, while Michael Dunworth believes cryptography is AI's 'kill switch,' preventing it from taking over if secure communication channels are compromised. Claude's recent bug discoveries in audited internet libraries demonstrate AI's superior vulnerability detection.
  • Michael Dunworth forecasts monumental AI-driven paradigm shifts within three to five years, advising people to pursue persistent career paths in mathematics or physics. He predicts mathematicians optimizing algorithms by 2% could earn hundreds of millions, as efficiency gains equate to increased energy output.
  • Michael Dunworth believes there will be a 'winner-take-all' scenario in AI, with one dominant algorithm and data set. He suggests the intense demand for energy will accelerate breakthroughs in production and distribution, potentially realizing concepts like 'over unity' or cold fusion.
  • Radiant Technology has acquired the original Manhattan Project site to manufacture micro-nuclear reactors, which are 1 megawatt units the size of shipping containers, deliverable by semi-trailer. Michael Dunworth highlights nuclear as a prime solution for future energy demands.
  • Michael Dunworth notes that Oman and Kuwait use 740% of their annual water production, while Dubai uses 4600% of its annual water budget. He emphasizes this overconsumption highlights a societal struggle against the natural order, particularly in fighting desert conditions.
  • Michael Dunworth states that Iran's central bank has been mining 3-5% of the daily Bitcoin hash rate for five years, while simultaneously banning Bitcoin exchanges for its citizens. He cites Luxembourg's recent 1% sovereign wealth fund allocation to Bitcoin as a sign of broader adoption.
  • Michael Dunworth explains that large corporations, like Apple with its $240 billion cash reserves, avoid Bitcoin due to intricate financial relationships with traditional banks, which provide essential services like supply chain financing and insurance.
  • Michael Dunworth argues Bitcoin's core strength is its singular message: 'the hardest money mankind's ever made,' suggesting that diverse narratives dilute its focus. He warns that a 'treasury company boom' could lead to governments seizing Bitcoin from publicly traded companies through custody services, centralizing control.
  • Michael Dunworth criticizes Ethereum's lack of focus, trying to be a sound money and a smart contract platform simultaneously, leading to competitive struggles with rivals like Solana. He notes Ethereum's default interaction necessitates self-custody, giving it a higher density of self-custody users, even if for 'gambling'.
  • Michael Dunworth believes cryptography will eventually break due to mathematical breakthroughs in understanding prime numbers, rather than solely quantum computing. He compares breaking 256-bit encryption to 'Wheel of Fortune,' where context and pattern recognition drastically reduce brute-force guessing.
  • Michael Dunworth posits that if prime numbers are treated as physical entities, they would be bound by physics laws, potentially revealing patterns for factoring semi-primes. He suggests that a $1 trillion bounty could lead to a breakthrough in prime number pattern discovery within a year, given human focus.
  • Michael Dunworth argues that nature does not inherently grant privacy, viewing secrets as 'unnatural' and contributing to human sickness, especially in contexts like addiction. He believes humanity will eventually reject secrecy, fostering unity and transparency.
  • Danny Knowles expresses concern about AI-generated content dominating the internet. Michael Dunworth adds that AI use is eroding genuine human connection and critical thinking, evidenced by people using AI to summarize personal messages or relying on it for verification.
  • Michael Dunworth suggests that human well-being from walking in nature, like parks, stems from chlorophyll in leaves refracting infrared light, which 'zaps into mitochondria.' He believes a societal revolt against AI and a return to outdoor activity could help 'recapture what it is to be human.'

Aravind Srinivas & Edwin Chen: The $1B Bootstrap, Apple's AI Edge, and Benchmarks | TWiAI E10Apr 23

Also from this episode: (16)

Agents (3)

  • Aravind Shavas, CEO of Perplexity AI, confirmed the company's revenue grew to $500 million recently, driven primarily by Perplexity Computer's success in simplifying agent orchestration for users.
  • Perplexity Computer provides an intuitive interface for orchestrating multiple AI agents without API keys or complex setup, offering access to various models and connectors for tasks like research, browser automation, and data analysis.
  • Aravind Shavas envisions Apple enabling local agent loops to run on devices, preserving user privacy for personal data like photos and messages, believing Apple is uniquely positioned to profit from this due to its chips, OS, and ecosystem.

Models (9)

  • Edwin Chen, founder and CEO of Serge AI, clarified his company's role as 'AI teaching' rather than simple 'data labeling,' employing highly educated experts to cross-examine and instill values, wisdom, and taste into frontier models.
  • Edwin Chen believes AI models will not be commodified due to their distinct personalities and specializations, arguing users will naturally prefer different models based on their mood or the specific task, similar to choosing friends.
  • Edwin Chen describes LM Arena as a 'terrible cancer on AI,' leading models to prioritize 'pretty formatting' over correctness due to companies optimizing for its visible yet flawed benchmarks, making models ultimately worse.
  • For model evaluation, Edwin Chen advocates measuring real-world human usage and practical helpfulness, rather than contrived benchmarks, ensuring models produce creative and useful outputs that truly benefit users.
  • Aravind Shavas developed Perplexity's 'Model Council' at Jensen Huang's suggestion, allowing users to query multiple models simultaneously, compare their responses, and receive a synthesized analysis highlighting agreements and disagreements.
  • Jason Calacanis praises Whisper Flow for its superior speech-to-text accuracy, especially when combined with a foot pedal for dictating long, detailed prompts, which significantly improves model responses.
  • Aravind Shavas is impressed by the improved Grok integration within X, particularly the 'Explain Grok' button for contextualizing tweets, and by the Gemini 3 Flash model for its exceptional speed and intelligence.
  • Edwin Chen highlights Claude Design for its well-designed and opinionated interface, which enables non-designers to rapidly prototype new interfaces and landing pages, accelerating product development.
  • Edwin Chen and Jason Calacanis share experiences where AI models, like those analyzing blood work results or personalized health trackers (e.g., Whoop), provided more effective and tailored health recommendations than human doctors.

Startups (2)

  • Serge AI, which has never raised venture capital, has approximately 130 employees and 50,000 expert contractors, providing services to major AI labs including OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, Microsoft, and Meta.
  • Aravind Shavas advises founders to be disciplined capital allocators, maintaining a 'bootstrap founder' mentality even after raising substantial funds, and suggests Perplexity AI aims for profitability without significant increases in payroll or infrastructure.

VC (1)

  • Edwin Chen criticizes the trend of raising excessive AI capital, arguing it incentivizes volume over quality, diverts CEO focus from product to fundraising, and can lead to models prioritizing engagement over genuine usefulness.

Chips (1)

  • Apple's M-series chips are an underrated asset for local LLM inference, outperforming DGX Spark benchmarks, and the company has already secured two-nanometer chip fab capacity for next year, positioning it for future local AI processing.

4/23/26: Global Alarms Over New AI, Kalshi Insider Trading, Tucker Apologizes For Trump SupportApr 23

  • Saagar recognizes Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei's credibility for prioritizing AI safety, noting his refusal of Pentagon demands and the company's research into model vulnerabilities.
  • Tucker Carlson apologized for advocating for Donald Trump, expressing torment over his role in Trump's election and acknowledging misleading his audience, particularly concerning the Iran war.
Also from this episode: (12)

Models (8)

  • Saagar explains Anthropic's Mythos AI model can identify and exploit vulnerabilities in critical infrastructure like banks and power grids, raising concerns about its potential for misuse.
  • Anthropic decided not to widely release its powerful Mythos model, sharing it only with eleven US organizations and Britain, triggering global alarm over potential security risks.
  • The Bank of England governor warned Mythos could "crack the whole cyber risk world open," while Canada's finance minister compared its threat to closing the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Saagar notes Bloomberg reported Mythos was accessed by an unauthorized Discord hacker collective, highlighting concerns about the model's security despite Anthropic's precautions.
  • Krystal argues that powerful AI models, unlike medical drugs, lack federal scrutiny, contrasting the rigorous approval process for pharmaceuticals with the hands-off approach to AI development.
  • Krystal advocates for a presidential advisory body to establish transparent review standards for powerful AI models, arguing against developers solely determining their safety for global impact.
  • Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei met with White House Chief of Staff Susie Wilds to discuss AI, including Mythos, even though the Trump administration blacklisted Anthropic's Claude AI model.
  • Krystal emphasizes that AI's ability to perfectly spoof voices will escalate existing spam call and text issues, making individuals, especially public figures, vulnerable to sophisticated financial scams.

Safety (1)

  • Krystal rejects the idea that AI companies exaggerate dangers for marketing, pointing to global alarms from banks and intelligence agencies as proof of genuine concern.

Society (1)

  • Krystal observes that societal impacts of technology, like the iPhone's widespread adoption taking four years until 2011, suggest AI's full effects will also unfold over time.

Digital Sovereignty (1)

  • Krystal, having owned an iPhone 4 sixteen years ago, voices skepticism about technology's promises of improvement, stating she is not "better off" with a smartphone.

Banking (1)

  • Saagar warns a major cyber incident impacting digitally-reliant banking systems could destabilize the global financial system and erode public trust in monetary security.

4/22/26: Iran Fires On Ships In Hormuz Strait, Ryan Debunks Laura Loomer, Robert Pape On Iran WarApr 22

  • Iranian forces seized two container ships and attacked a third in the Strait of Hormuz, with one vessel sustaining heavy bridge damage from an IRGC gunboat, according to NPR and UK maritime reports.
  • Trump unilaterally extended a ceasefire with Iran but maintained a naval blockade, which Jeremy Scahill reported Iranian officials immediately rejected, refusing negotiations while the blockade persisted.
  • Trump claimed Iran loses $500 million daily when the Strait of Hormuz is blockaded, asserting Iran only desires its closure to "save face" despite wanting it open for revenue.
  • Robert Pape identifies Iran's nuclear enrichment and control of the Strait of Hormuz as zero-sum issues, preventing negotiated compromise and driving both sides towards escalation rather than concession.
  • Robert Pape contends Iran intends to prolong the conflict until at least November to sabotage Trump's presidency, aiming to establish itself as an unchallengeable regional power.
  • Robert Pape stated Iran learned it could "beat America" in the eight weeks since February 27, a knowledge he calls a catastrophic outcome of Trump's foreign policy that will lead to a global economic dip.
  • Neil Ferguson, biographer of Henry Kissinger, has adopted Robert Pape's analysis, acknowledging Iran's use of the Strait of Hormuz as a powerful economic lever and predicting prolonged negotiations and further bombing.
  • Robert Pape points to Iran's recent actions, including seizing ships and parading missiles bearing American city names, as standard escalation tactics, signaling the conflict's continued duration.
Also from this episode: (7)

Politics (2)

  • Jeremy Scahill dismissed "MAGA world" media narratives of a Tehran coup as psychological warfare, emphasizing Iran's 47 years of institution-building mean decisions are centralized and unified, not chaotic.
  • Hamana Solomani Offshar's father, Ali Solomani Offshar (born 1947), had no brothers, and his family was from Yazd, hundreds of miles from Qassem Soleimani's Kerman, disproving any familial link.

Corruption (1)

  • Ryan and Martaza Hussein of Dropsite News found the State Department falsely arrested Hamana Solomani Offshar (47) and Serena Hosseini (25) for alleged Soleimani ties, based on reviewed Iranian birth records and family wills.

Immigration (2)

  • The women sought asylum after Serena's 2012 public dance performance in Turkey, aired on TV Persia, led to her expulsion from schools and death threats in Iran when she was 12 years old.
  • Laura Loomer stated she wants all Islamic immigrants deported and still believes the women are related to Soleimani, despite evidence presented by Ryan Grim contradicting her claims.

Media (1)

  • Ryan reported Laura Loomer received false information about the women from Iranian American Shah supporters, who targeted Hamana Solomani Offshar due to her anti-Shah activism, not anti-American sentiment.

Digital Sovereignty (1)

  • Hamana Solomani Offshar's house was ransacked on April 8 after her address was doxxed, an attack attributed to an Iranian American believing the false Soleimani family connection.

Now boarding: America seizes an Iranian shipApr 20

  • US forces fired upon and seized the Iranian-flagged Motor Vessel Tosca in the Strait of Hormuz, enforcing a blockade just before the existing ceasefire with Iran was set to expire on Wednesday.
  • Greg Karlstrom explains that Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Aragchi, tweeted the Strait was open subject to IRGC coordination and potential tolls, which is Iran's established position, not a full reopening.
  • Greg Karlstrom identifies three potential Iranian responses: direct attacks on US warships, attacks on commercial vessels in the Gulf for domestic retaliation, or negotiation to end the mutual blockade.
  • Negotiations between the US and Iran are scheduled for Tuesday in Islamabad, with US Vice President J.D. Vance leading the American delegation, though Iran's attendance is uncertain.
  • The US views its recent action in the Strait as evening out the situation, arguing Iran failed to reopen it as supposedly agreed, and expects it to provide leverage in upcoming talks.
  • While the US has dropped its demand for Iran to never enrich uranium, its request for a prolonged moratorium remains a significant point of contention in negotiations.
  • A Russian drone struck Chernobyl's New Safe Confinement (NSC) on February 14, 2025, piercing the protective dome; the NSC was installed 10 years ago to isolate the site for a century.
  • Balthazar Lindauer, EBRD director, calls the drone damage 'very significant,' stating the NSC is now 'useless' as its hermetic seal is lost, though a maintenance garage reportedly saved Reactor 4 from a direct hit.
  • Don Wineland notes that global fast food chains like McDonald's, KFC, and Starbucks are now rapidly expanding into rural Chinese cities, such as Handtuan, as major cities are saturated.
Also from this episode: (9)

Markets (1)

  • Oil prices, specifically Brent crude, initially dropped to $85 a barrel last week due to market misinterpretation of Aragchi's tweet, but later jumped by $10 a barrel.

Energy (4)

  • The New Safe Confinement (NSC), built for $1.6 billion by 45 nations and orchestrated by the EBRD, stands 108 meters tall, 250 meters wide, and 150 meters long.
  • Following the strike, visible flames were extinguished in two hours, but smoldering between the NSC's internal and external layers burned for weeks, gutting about half of the internal membrane.
  • Engineers decided to fix the New Safe Confinement in place, rather than moving it, due to the high risk of leaving the unstable original sarcophagus unprotected.
  • The estimated repair cost for the NSC is 500 million euros, a figure expected to rise, and Rafael Mariano Grossi of the IAEA warns that radioactive release risks will grow without repairs.

History (1)

  • Sunday marks the 40th anniversary of the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear accident.

Business (3)

  • Saturation in large cities means 70% of KFCs and 60% of McDonald's in China are within a 10-minute bicycle ride of another location.
  • Many global fast food chains in China, including McDonald's (owned by Cidic Capital) and Yum China (KFC/Pizza Hut), are now predominantly backed by large local Chinese investors.
  • Local investors provide the capital for expansion into smaller, riskier markets, but challenges persist, including a lack of suitable real estate and competition from cheaper, locally tailored Chinese brands.