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AI & TECH

Williams counters Silicon Valley AI doom with historic Engels' Pause revision

Monday, May 18, 2026 · from 4 podcasts
Modern WisdomThe DailyThe EconomistTucker Carlson Show
  • Callum Williams debunks AI mass unemployment forecasts using economic history and modern Engels' Pause scholarship.
  • Tucker Carlson warns AI threatens human purpose more than jobs, paralleling industrial-era social disruption.
  • Demographers say AI could push women toward family roles and offer synthetic happiness substitutes.

The gloomiest AI forecasts come from its architects. Sam Altman and other Silicon Valley leaders predict mass unemployment, with polls showing Americans believe they have a 20% chance of job loss within five years.

Economist Callum Williams, on The Intelligence from The Economist, argues this is historically illiterate. He points to the Industrial Revolution, where British employment nearly tripled over a century despite technological upheaval. Williams also challenges the classic 'Engels' Pause' narrative of wage stagnation between 1790 and 1840, noting that modern scholarship recasts it as a period of steady wages amid rapid population growth and slow productivity gains. For AI to truly break precedent, he says, US per-person GDP growth would need to exceed 2.5% annually alongside high profits and widespread job losses - a scenario current data does not support.

"Rapid, economy-wide job destruction from new technology is historically unprecedented."

- Callum Williams, The Intelligence from The Economist

Williams suggests tech CEOs' doomsaying stems from a poor model of how average people live, not just IPO branding. Most people won't write code or build apps just because the tools exist.

Yet Tucker Carlson identifies a different threat on his show. Beyond economics, he argues AI eliminates the intellectual labor that provides human purpose and joy. He warns that Universal Basic Income is a shallow substitute, and a population without a mission becomes volatile.

"If machines automate the 'thinking' jobs that support families, the resulting unemployment will lead to more than just financial hardship; it will lead to a loss of meaning."

- Tucker Carlson, The Tucker Carlson Show

Kevin O’Leary, debating Carlson, counters that AI will create millions of new high-paying jobs in robotics, medical science, and defense.

Demographers from Modern Wisdom see another vector. Simone Collins believes AI will automate traditional 'lanyard class' jobs, potentially pushing women back toward family-oriented roles. She also speculates AI could provide happiness substitutes for childless people through 'pleasure pods' and fake families.

The consensus across sources is that AI's social impact will be complex and nonlinear. The historical record suggests job markets adapt slowly; the spiritual and demographic consequences may be the real surprise.

#AI & Tech#Labor#Society
Sam AltmanScience

Source Intelligence

- Deep dive into what was said in the episodes

Modern Wisdom
Modern Wisdom

Birth Rate Debate: Why Is No One Having Kids? - #1099 • May 18

  • Stephen Shaw argues the 21st century will see interstate conflict resurface because differential fertility decline creates windows where nations see their last chance to field an army.
  • Simone Collins says AI disruption will push women back toward family-oriented careers, as traditional 'lanyard class' jobs are automated.
  • Lyman Stone argues costs are a local friction but not the root cause of low fertility; cultural norms define the expensive 'package' of goods people now expect with parenthood.
  • Stephen Shaw cites data showing achieving one's desired family size correlates with lower depression, while IVF failure doubles the likelihood of being prescribed antipsychotics.
  • Stone notes national debts and bond markets will be serviced by fewer future taxpayers, making government financing harder and reducing investment.
  • Collins asserts selection pressures now favor 'hyper-autist agency maxes,' creating a dangerous monoculture for humanity's future.
  • Stone says cash incentives can work: a meta-analysis suggests South Korea could reach replacement fertility by dedicating 12% of GDP to child benefits.
  • Shaw explains primary education reduces fertility causally, but tertiary education expansion does not show a credible causal effect.
  • Collins advocates for 'pan-natalism,' supporting people to have the children they want while respecting those who choose not to.
  • Stone highlights the 'vitality curve': a society's fertility rate can be predicted with high accuracy from the average age and width of motherhood timing alone.
  • Collins believes AI can provide happiness substitutes for childless people via 'pleasure pods' and fake families, while she focuses on building futures for pronatalists.
  • Shaw says the real economic cost of low fertility is lost innovation, as fewer young people in capital-rich societies reduces the supply of geniuses and demand for new products.
  • The US recorded its lowest fertility rate of 1.62 births per woman in 2024, with 710,000 fewer children born last year compared to the 2007 peak.
  • In the UK, being childless at age 30 is now the norm, rising from 48% to 58%.
  • At a fertility rate of 1.0, the total births in one generation equal the summed total births of all future generations, due to perpetual halving.
  • Shaw notes the halfway point between fertility rates of 2.0 and 1.0 in terms of halving time is 1.92, not 1.5.
  • Current industrial world births are halving every 50 to 60 years at fertility rates around 1.5-1.6.
  • Around 25-30% of people in the UK cite money as the primary reason for not having children.
  • In the US, women have a 50% chance of ever becoming a mother by age 27.
  • Conservative family size has risen since the 1980s while liberal family size has fallen sharply, from 1.44 to 0.87.
  • Surveys indicate 90% of people at some point either have or want kids.
  • About 80% of childless women who reach menopause say they wanted children.
  • Marrying before age 27 predicts hitting one's desired family size; marrying later sees odds fall sharply.
  • South Korea's average age for first child is 33, driving a rise in one-child families.
  • Shaw says most fertility decline occurs at the first parity; odds of moving from two to three children have not fallen much in 20 years.
Also from this episode: (3)

Politics (2)

  • Shaw states falling fertility unevenly cannibalizes young people's futures as pension obligations consume municipal budgets for police and schools.
  • Global fertility is projected to fall to 1.8 by 2050 and 1.6 by 2100; by 2100 only six countries will remain at or above replacement level.

Culture (1)

  • Stone argues low fertility societies develop 'magnet cities' like Tokyo where young people cluster, leaving rural areas to die out.
#Macro#Labor#Society#War
The Daily
The Daily

Can We Reverse Aging? • May 17

  • Altos Labs recruited top scientists like Belmonte by offering million-dollar salaries, triggering a major academic migration to private industry. The company focuses on predictive research using human organoids and AI-driven virtual cells to bypass unreliable mouse models.
  • Domonius notes billionaires investing in longevity R&D hope to profit, which requires treatments becoming widely available. She acknowledges this mirrors the pharmaceutical industry's profit-driven model, but the convergence with tech billionaires raises uncharted questions about control and privacy.
  • Extending lifespan raises economic and philosophical issues. Social Security isn't designed for people living to 110. Domonius says if people are healthier longer, they might remain active and fill roles amid population decline, reducing pressure on young caregivers.
Also from this episode: (9)

Biology (5)

  • Longevity science focuses on cellular rejuvenation - the idea that aged cells can be made to function like younger cells. Susan Domonius points to embryos as proof, noting they shed inherited aging markers shortly after fertilization.
  • Shinya Yamanaka won the Nobel Prize in 2006 for reverting aged mouse skin cells to embryonic form using powerful genes. Early attempts to apply these Yamanaka factors to mice caused monstrous tumors, as cells became unspecialized and developed fatal teratomas.
  • Juan Carlos Izpisua Belmonte tweaked the Yamanaka formula, applying a reduced dose to fast-aging mice. The mice lived longer, looked younger with less gray fur, had stronger muscles, healed faster, and became friscier - lab technicians thought they were replaced.
  • David Sinclair, a Harvard genetics professor, is a controversial figure in longevity research. Domonius notes colleagues criticize him for overselling promises, circulating unsupported claims about reversing aging in dogs, and co-founding a wellness platform with non-mainstream practices.
  • Sinclair’s key breakthrough involved dropping the most cancer-prone Yamanaka factor and using only three to restore vision in blinded mice without causing cancer. Life Biosciences, his biotech, has FDA approval for human safety trials targeting glaucoma and nystagmus.

Longevity (3)

  • Billionaires are the primary backers of longevity science. Sam Altman invested roughly $200 million in Retro Biosciences. Jeff Bezos is a major investor in Altos Labs, the largest biotech startup launch in history.
  • Hal Barron, Altos Labs CEO, distances the company from extreme longevity promises like living to 150. Domonius says Barron aims for reasonable goals, such as extending human health by a few years or preserving ovary function, which he considers revolutionary.
  • Hal Barron stated we already know how to reverse aging through diet, exercise, sleep, and sociability. Domonius points to GLP-1 drugs as evidence that behavioral solutions are insufficient, arguing accessible medical interventions could transform health for those in food deserts or under stress.

Health (1)

  • The realistic expectation for cellular rejuvenation is treating specific diseases like glaucoma within a decade, not dramatically expanding lifespan. Domonius argues the goal is curing disease to reduce suffering and extend healthy years, not achieve radical longevity.
#Longevity#Biology#Health#Startups#AI Infrastructure
The Intelligence from The Economist
The Intelligence from The Economist

Fired alarm: AI hype versus labour-market history • May 14

  • Callum Williams says polling shows the average American believes they have a 20% chance of losing their job in the next five years, a sentiment echoed by AI leaders.
  • Williams argues that rapid, economy-wide job destruction from new technology is historically unprecedented, as even the Industrial Revolution saw British employment nearly triple in the century after 1760.
  • Recent scholarship challenges the 'Engels' Pause' narrative of wage stagnation from 1790-1840, noting slow productivity growth and rapid population growth meant steady wages were a positive outcome.
  • Williams notes mid-20th century job disruption from computers and new manufacturing was much higher than today or during the Industrial Revolution, yet that period is now seen as a golden age for workers.
  • For the first time, the unemployment rate for new graduates exceeds the overall rate, but Williams attributes this weakening labor position to factors predating ChatGPT, not AI.
  • Williams proposes a historical benchmark: if US per-person GDP growth exceeds 2-2.5% annually alongside high corporate profits and broad job losses, it would signal an unprecedented AI disruption, which current data does not show.
  • Williams suggests Silicon Valley's doomsaying stems from historical ignorance and a poor model of how average people use technology, more than just branding for IPOs.
Also from this episode: (6)

Trade (2)

  • John McDermott reports the Kabanga nickel deposit in Tanzania, known for 50 years, is now pivotal as the West seeks alternatives to China's dominance of the nickel supply chain from Indonesia.
  • New Western competition is making China more amenable to African requests for on-site mineral processing, a shift from the old model of just shipping raw ore.

Diplomacy (1)

  • McDermott says the US is using diplomatic pressure, making support for Tanzania conditional on progress at Kabanga, as part of a broader, muscular effort to insert American firms into African mining from the DRC to Zambia.

Politics (1)

  • McDermott argues Africa's estimated $9 trillion in untapped mineral wealth means nothing without the infrastructure and careful policymaking to capture value, warning that slapdash export bans can deter needed investment.

Culture (2)

  • Japan's national football team, the Samurai Blue, aims to win the upcoming World Cup, having previously reached only the round of 16, most recently in 2018 and 2022.
  • The team faces setbacks with injuries to key players like captain Wataru Endo and star Keiru Mitoma ahead of their group stage matches against Sweden, Tunisia, and the Netherlands.
#Macro#Labor#Energy#Trade
The Tucker Carlson Show
The Tucker Carlson Show

Tucker Carlson

DEBATE: Tucker vs Kevin O’Leary on the Dystopian AI Future Devouring American Energy and Jobs • May 14

  • Carlson claims AI developers have failed to explain how the technology will improve average lives, instead framing it as an existential race against China.
  • O'Leary projects the first phase will cost $15 billion and create 10,000 construction and 2,000 maintenance jobs, financed by investors, not taxpayers.
  • O'Leary defends tax incentives for large-scale projects as standard competitive practice among states to attract investment and jobs.
  • O'Leary argues AI will create millions of new high-paying jobs in fields like advanced robotics, medical science, and defense, countering predictions of mass job displacement.
  • Tucker Carlson counters that technological revolutions like the Industrial Revolution caused massive social disruption and world wars, and AI's potential to eliminate human purpose is a profound threat.
  • Carlson raises concerns that AI's capacity for deception, alignment problems cited by pioneers like Geoffrey Hinton, and its use for state surveillance represent more immediate dangers than a sci-fi takeover.
Also from this episode: (6)

Energy (1)

  • Tucker Carlson argues that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has created a severe global energy crisis, causing a net loss of 1.8 billion barrels of oil.

AI Infrastructure (5)

  • Carlson states that despite a 5% average rise in US homeowner energy costs, a powerful chorus from elected officials and financiers now demands a massive expansion of fossil fuel energy production to power AI.
  • Carlson cites a proposed Utah data center requiring 9 gigawatts of power, which he says is more than double Utah's total current energy consumption.
  • Carlson contrasts the Utah facility with the Boeing Everett plant, noting the data center would use 36 times the power while being over 400 times larger in acreage.
  • Kevin O'Leary frames the Utah data center as a national security imperative, arguing the nation with superior AI compute power will win future wars and dominate the economy.
  • O'Leary states his data center will be energy independent, using low-cost stranded natural gas from the Ruby pipeline and new air-cooled turbines to avoid raising local electricity costs.
#AI Infrastructure#Energy#China#Labor#Regulation

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