Netanyahu ignores Trump as Hormuz closure threatens global economy

Wednesday, June 10, 2026 · from 6 podcasts, 9 episodes

The Daily Bitcoin And Breaking Points The Economist Freakonomics Radio No Agenda

Iran exploits Hormuz closure to pressure Gulf states, betting on Trump's economic desperation to secure a deal.
Israel retaliates despite Trump's public demands, revealing US influence has collapsed and Netanyahu acts alone.
Fractures in Trump's base and GOP escalate as gas prices near $5 threaten midterm elections.

Iran discovered its power lies not in missiles but in the choke point of the Strait of Hormuz. The closure, the largest energy supply disruption in modern history, gave Tehran economic leverage the U.S. military cannot match. David Sanger notes on The Daily that Trump's weekend negotiations aimed only for a memorandum to reopen the strait, not to resolve Iran's nuclear program or missiles. The goalposts have shifted: eleven weeks ago, Trump demanded unconditional surrender. Now he's negotiating to restore the commerce that existed before his February strikes.

"Iran discovered that closing the Strait is a massive bargaining chip. Even against the world's largest military, they can break the global economy."
- David Sanger, The Daily

Professor Robert Pape argues on Breaking Points that Iran has moved from survival to ambition, establishing itself as a fourth regional world power. The regime is extending a security belt via its 'Axis of Resistance' allies, betting it can trigger a global economic crisis this summer to strengthen its hand. Fareed Zakaria notes on Freakonomics Radio that Iran is a 5,000-year-old nation willing to endure more pain than the U.S. can inflict, demonstrated in the eight-year Iran-Iraq war.

Israel, however, is acting independently. Saagar Enjeti reports that Trump publicly told Benjamin Netanyahu not to strike Iran, but privately folded the moment Netanyahu insisted on a response. Israel struck a petrochemical plant in western Iran anyway. Greg Karlstrom on The Intelligence suggests Trump's public bravado may mask a private reality where the White House gives Israel a green light within specific parameters while publicly signaling restraint. The result is a performance that destroys any remaining U.S. bargaining power.

"Trump’s midnight claims of an imminent deal - his 37th such claim - mask a total loss of control. While Trump publicly told Israel not to retaliate, private phone calls reveal he folded the moment Benjamin Netanyahu insisted on a response."
- Saagar Enjeti, Breaking Points

The economic pressure is now overriding military ambition. Tyler Pager notes on The Daily that gas prices approaching $5 a gallon create urgent political pressure for Republicans ahead of midterms. Trump's base is fracturing: podcaster Shawn Ryan admitted he feels 'fucking duped' by Trump's shift from non-interventionism to hawkishness. Enjeti compares the fallout to how the Iraq War destroyed George W. Bush’s presidency, draining the political capital required for Trump’s domestic agenda.

Inside Washington, hawks like Senator Lindsey Graham argue any deal that reopens the strait but leaves Iran's nuclear program intact represents a failure. The U.S. destroyed key Iranian nuclear sites in June 2025 but did not eliminate the program, leaving 970 lbs of highly enriched uranium at Isfahan. Yet the Pentagon is now treating Israel as a critical counterintelligence threat, raising the threat level after reports of Israeli attempts to bug a Secret Service vehicle and install software on U.S. officials' phones.

The butterfly effect is global. North Korea's economy is surging as it trades munitions for Russian oil, proving the model for sanctioned states. Iran sees that defiance pays off if you have the right inventory. The question is whether Trump can reopen the strait before the economic bleeding costs his party the government.

6 Sources:

The Daily Bitcoin And Breaking Points The Economist Freakonomics Radio No Agenda

#War #Energy

Pentagon Iran Israel Strait of Hormuz White House

Source Intelligence

- Deep dive into what was said in the episodes

The Daily

The Iran War's Devastating Butterfly Effect • Jun 10

President Trump's weekend negotiations with Iran aimed only at a memorandum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, not at resolving core issues like Iran's nuclear or missile programs.
David Sanger notes the Strait of Hormuz closure resulted from the war and provided Iran massive economic leverage, creating the largest energy supply disruption in modern history.
The United States destroyed key Iranian nuclear sites in June 2025 using B-2 bombers and deep-penetrating bombs but did not eliminate the program, leaving 970 lbs of highly enriched uranium at Isfahan.
A key US demand in negotiations is the removal or destruction of Iran's near-bomb-grade uranium stockpile, which Iran resists citing rights under the nuclear nonproliferation treaty.
Tyler Pager reports deep divisions within Trump's base between Iran hawks demanding continued military action and those worried about economic costs and midterm election politics.
Republican critics like Senator Lindsey Graham argue any deal that reopens the strait but leaves Iran's nuclear program intact represents a failure to achieve Trump's original war objectives.
Trump's tone shifted from optimistic deal announcements to attacking critics after a senior official revealed no document existed for Iran's supreme leader to sign and no mechanism for uranium disposal was agreed.
Trump's sudden demand that Arab countries sign the Abraham Accords complicated negotiations, serving both to mollify Republican critics and project a grand Middle East remake despite many countries' lack of interest.
Monday's US strikes on Iranian missile sites, drones, and minelaying boats were described as defensive actions but highlighted the fragile ceasefire and mixed strategy of negotiating while applying force.
David Sanger compares the Iran negotiation approach to the Gaza deal, where easy issues were settled first but hard ones like disarming Hamas remain unresolved months later.
Tyler Pager says gas prices approaching $5 a gallon create urgent political pressure for Republicans ahead of midterm elections, making Strait reopening economically critical unlike other foreign conflicts.
Trump-endorsed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton won the Republican Senate primary, defeating incumbent John Cornyn and setting up a competitive general election that could affect Senate control.

#War #Elections #Middle East

Bitcoin And | Bitcoin & Economic News

Hormuz Schmooze | Bitcoin News • Jun 9

The full text of the American Reserve Modernization Act (HR 8957) mandates a 20-year lockup for Bitcoin deposited into a federal strategic reserve, with sales capped at 10% every two years afterward.

Also from this episode: (11)

Protocol (11)

Michael Saylor argues Bitcoin needs disciplined expansion through banks, corporate treasuries, credit markets, and capital markets rather than relying solely on spot ETF inflows.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs posted weekly net outflows of $1.4B, $1.26B, and $1B in the last three weeks of May, with the current week's outflows at $1.4B.
MicroStrategy sold 32 Bitcoin to fund preferred stock dividends, its first sale since 2022.
Analyst Lacey Zhang said Bitcoin may be closer to clearing its leverage episode after an $1.8B liquidation wave and deeply negative funding rates.
Nikolai Sondergaard of Nansen said exchange flow data suggests participants are using Bitcoin's bounce to reduce exposure, not add positions.
Maritime service platform Hormuz SAFE in Iran claims to accept Bitcoin and Lightning payments for services like marine insurance and emergency response.
A Chinese court sentenced a man to 10 years and 9 months in prison for stealing 107 Bitcoin, ruling that Bitcoin meets China's legal definition of property.
Coinbase's John D'Agostino claimed institutional investors and Middle Eastern family offices view the Bitcoin price drop as an accumulation opportunity, not a reason to panic.
MicroStrategy purchased an additional 1,550 Bitcoin for $101M at approximately $65,000 per coin, days after selling a smaller amount.
Bitcoin's hash rate fell to 854 exahashes per second as price declines forced some miners offline.
Bitcoin price fell to $59,099, marking a more than 50% decline from its all-time high near $126,000.

#BTC Markets #Adoption #Nation-State #Regulation

Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

6/9/26: US Helicopter Downed In Strait Of Hormuz, Prof Pape On Axis Of Resistance, North Korea Economy Surges • Jun 9

Trump soft-greenlit Israeli retaliatory strikes on Iran despite public statements urging de-escalation. The private phone call with Netanyahu was calm, with Trump assenting to a limited response.
Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon after the Iran exchange have killed at least eight people and wounded dozens. The IDF is ordering evacuations, including from a Christian quarter.
A US Army Apache helicopter went down near the Strait of Hormuz. The cause is unclear, and the crew was rescued by a US Navy surface water drone.
US forces fired on and disabled a Palau-flagged oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman after its crew failed to comply with directions. The crew were Indian nationals.
Robert Pape argues Iran has moved from survival to ambition, establishing itself as a fourth regional world power. It is extending a security umbrella via its 'Axis of Resistance' allies like Hezbollah and the Houthis.

Also from this episode: (5)

Markets (1)

North Korea's economy is surging, fueled by partnerships with Russia and China. The country built more housing in Pyongyang last year than Los Angeles or Chicago.

Payments (1)

Pyongyang now features smartphone taxi-hailing apps, QR code payments, new pet stores, internet cafes, and Chinese electric vehicles, according to visitor accounts and satellite imagery.

War (2)

North Korea sent troops as mercenaries to fight for Russia in Ukraine and supplies Russia with billions in munitions, using the revenue to fund domestic construction and industrial projects.
The US military did assist in intercepting Iranian missiles during the recent exchange, contradicting initial White House narratives that claimed no US defensive action was taken.

Elections (1)

Trump has claimed a deal with Iran is imminent at least 37 times since the conflict began. Robert Pape traced this rhetoric back 72 days to March 29th.

#War #Diplomacy #Russia #China #Macro

6/8/26: Iran & Israel Exchange Fire, Trump Rage Quits Interview, Pentagon Warns Of Israeli Spying • Jun 8

Saagar cites a seven-page DIA memo detailing Israeli attempts to bug a Secret Service vehicle and install software on US officials' phones, which the White House publicly dismissed as 'entirely false.'
Krystal argues Israeli spying efforts are 'unhinged' and that the relationship is adversarial, noting the country would welcome US casualties to drag America back into full-scale war.
Israel's security doctrine requires absolute dominance, meaning no neighboring state like Iran or Turkey can have the capacity to check its ambitions for a 'greater Israel' project.
The US spent its limited missile stockpile defending Israel during the 39-day conflict, a depletion that will take over five years to replace, according to Pentagon concerns.
Trump's negotiating team for Iran includes Jared Kushner, Witkoff, and a hawk from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, with no direct talks, making a credible deal unlikely.

Also from this episode: (10)

War (6)

Iran directly struck Israel for the first time after Israel attacked Lebanon, marking a strategic shift where a regional power now uses hard power to check Israeli aggression against third parties.
Trump publicly told Netanyahu not to retaliate after Iran's strike, stating 'I call the shots,' but Israel retaliated anyway, hitting Iranian petrochemical facilities in Masha'ar.
Saagar argues Trump's inability to restrain Israel proves the US either lacks the capability or willingness under Trump's policy to control Israeli actions, moving further from a deal with Iran.
Iran halted operations after Trump's call for a ceasefire but warned that renewed aggression in southern Lebanon would trigger harsher retaliation, explicitly linking peace to Israeli withdrawal.
Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon resumed minutes after Iran's ceasefire statement, prompting Hezbollah rocket fire, demonstrating the instability of Trump's diplomatic posture.
The Houthis declared a total ban on Israeli shipping in the Red Sea and launched missile barrages at Tel Aviv during the Iran-Israel exchange, signaling coordinated escalation.

Elections (3)

Krystal notes Trump's campaign rhetoric guaranteed 'no new wars,' but he contradicted that in an interview with Kristen Welker, saying 'I never guaranteed no new wars' and justifying his military buildup.
Trump rage-quit the NBC interview when challenged on election fraud claims, revealing a fragile temper and sensitivity to criticism as his political position deteriorates.
Trump acknowledged rising fertilizer and gas prices to farmers but framed them as a necessary cost to disarm Iran, contradicting his initial claim that farmers were doing great.

Diplomacy (1)

The Pentagon's Defense Intelligence Agency raised Israel's counterintelligence threat level to 'critical,' citing specific incidents of attempted surveillance on US officials like Steve Witkoff and Elbridge Colby.

#War #Diplomacy #Middle East #Macro

6/4/26: Shawn Ryan Says Trump Duped Him, Ivanka Kushner Private Island, Rubio Confronted On Trump Falling Asleep • Jun 4

Shawn Ryan and Megyn Kelly publicly broke with Trump over his war with Iran and other policies, stating they felt 'duped' by his promises to avoid Middle East wars.
Trump’s presidency is weakening, evidenced by Senate Republicans blocking his $1 billion 'ballroom' funding request and abandoning his $1.8 billion 'anti-weaponization fund' due to intra-party opposition.
Saagar argues Trump's unpopular war with Iran has destroyed his presidency, similar to how Iraq destroyed George W. Bush's political project, paralyzing his ability to advance other priorities.
Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner acquired a 1,400-hectare private island in Albania after meeting Prime Minister Edi Rama on Nat Rothschild's yacht; Albanian protests erupted over the perceived corrupt land deal.
Peter Thiel is decamping to Argentina, citing 'failed governance' and seeking a networked-state libertarian project, not simply California's billionaire tax.
Ken Clippenstein reports President Trump, now the oldest U.S. president at 79, frequently falls asleep in meetings; the White House disclosed he has chronic venous insufficiency.
Republican Congressman Tom Kean has been missing for three months with an undisclosed health issue; Speaker Mike Johnson claims he's 'working remotely' but cannot vote remotely.
Ken notes five members of Congress died in office this term, with many having known health issues before election, highlighting a systemic lack of health transparency for elected officials.

Also from this episode: (1)

Immigration (1)

The Trump administration reversed a sweeping immigration memo requiring green card applicants in the U.S. to leave the country, facing backlash from big tech and businesses.

#War #Elections #Macro #Immigration #Corruption

6/3/26: Iran Bombs Kuwait, Hezbollah Hits IDF In Lebanon, Elections In California • Jun 3

During Senate testimony, Rubio claimed Cuba's economic crisis is due to a military holding company, GAESA, which controls 70% of GDP and sits on $14-17 billion in assets without contributing to the public treasury.
Grim points out Cuba, under decades of US sanctions, historically achieved better health and education outcomes than the United States, questioning narratives of pure economic mismanagement.
Josh Paul reveals a US Commission for heritage protection, funded with $770,000 annually, is backing Israel's City of David project in East Jerusalem, which has displaced over 1,500 Palestinians and demolished 100 homes.
Paul says the commission's chair is linked to defining criticism of Israel as antisemitism, and a board member appeared on a show pitching projects for illegal Israeli settlers.
Paul warns that Section 224 of the NDAA aims to deeply integrate Israeli military technology into the US defense industrial base, making future funding cuts impossible and flipping strategic leverage to Israel.
Paul notes the US provides Israel with $3.8 billion in annual military aid, a figure he argues is politically unsustainable given shifting American public opinion.
In the Los Angeles mayoral race, Karen Bass leads with 34.8%, Spencer Pratt has 30.4%, and Nithya Raman has 22.3%, with many Democratic mail-in ballots still uncounted.
In California's gubernatorial primary, Steve Hilton leads with 27.8%, Javier Becerra has 25.4%, and Tom Steyer has 19.6%, with late Democratic ballots likely to reshape the top-two standings.
Progressive Adam Hamawy won a New Jersey House primary despite attacks linking him to a 1990s charity later associated with al-Qaeda; he is known for serving as a combat surgeon in Gaza under Israeli siege.
In Iowa, Zach Nunn defeated Trump-endorsed Randy Feenstra in a House primary, marking a rare loss for Trump and a win for candidates seen as more ideologically aligned with MAGA grassroots.
In Montana, progressive union organizer Sam Forstag leads a Democratic House primary, challenging the establishment favorite and demonstrating the reach of populist-left campaigns.

Also from this episode: (4)

War (2)

The IRGC launched retaliatory strikes on Kuwait and Bahrain targeting an Iranian ship in the Strait of Hormuz, signaling a shift from tit-for-tat responses to a more severe escalation to lock in strategic gains.
Ryan Grim notes Secretary of State Marco Rubio testified the war with Iran is over, a claim contradicted by ongoing Iranian attacks and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Trade (1)

Emily Jashinsky and Ryan Grim argue Rubio falsely claims Cuba only wants free oil, noting the US actively blocks Cuba from purchasing oil even with its stated financial resources.

Elections (1)

Katie Porter lost her House reelection bid decisively, receiving only 4.6% of the vote, which Grim laments as a loss of an effective Wall Street critic from Congress.

#War #Diplomacy #Middle East #Regulation

The Intelligence from The Economist

Ceasefire alarm: Iran and Israel trade strikes • Jun 8

Also from this episode: (9)

War (3)

A ceasefire between the US and Iran negotiated two months ago in April is now at risk after direct strikes. Iran fired ballistic missiles at Israel, and Israel responded with airstrikes against missile sites and a petrochemical plant in Iran.
Greg Karlstrom notes the core dispute involves whether the ceasefire includes Lebanon. Iran demands Israel halt attacks on Lebanon, while Israel rejects linking the two conflicts and has intensified its strikes there.
Donald Trump's public stance appears critical of Israel's strikes, but Greg Karlstrom suspects private communications may have granted Israel a green light for retaliation within certain parameters.

Big Tech (2)

BYD's key advantage is vertical integration, controlling supply chains from lithium processing to AI development in-house to lower costs and foster rapid innovation, exemplified by functions like floating cars and pothole-jumping.
Don Wineland argues BYD's vertically integrated model hinders tech partnerships common in China, such as those with Huawei, potentially leaving it behind in software and entertainment systems valued by young buyers.

Markets (1)

Despite being the world's largest EV maker, BYD faces pressure as profits fell for the first time in four years and EV sales declined year-on-year for eight consecutive months. Rival Geely briefly overtook it in sales.

AI Infrastructure (1)

BYD developed an in-house semiconductor it claims is the world's most powerful chip for self-driving and a rapid charging system that can charge an EV close to full in under ten minutes, even below -30°C.

Media (2)

Companion podcast releases have surged, with at least 17 launched in 2024, triple the number from 2019. They serve superfans with deep-dive content on production, often featuring creators, cast, and field experts.
Lizzie Peet explains companion podcasts are a low-cost strategy for networks to capture audience attention during commutes, filling a gap left by the decline of DVD extras and capitalizing on fan demand for insider access.

#War #Diplomacy #Macro #Media #AI Infrastructure

Freakonomics Radio

676. Has America Lost the Plot? • Jun 5

Fareed Zakaria says Trump's second term is dramatically different from the first, delegating to loyalists and embracing improvisational governance.
Zakaria argues the U.S. attack on Iran resulted from Trump's love of arbitrary power and Netanyahu's persuasion, enabled by an imperial Washington.
Zakaria notes Iran is a weak paper tiger but a regime built to survive, willing to endure more pain than the U.S., which it demonstrated in the eight-year Iran-Iraq war.
Zakaria predicts Iran will likely secure a deal with the U.S., transforming into a military dictatorship under the Revolutionary Guard, and seeks recognition plus sanctions relief.
Saudi Arabia's oil revenues are up 20% while the UAE's are down 40%, reflecting their different strategic postures in the Iran conflict.
He describes Netanyahu as a skillful but unreliable politician whose legacy is military security coupled with unprecedented diplomatic isolation for Israel.
He estimates 65% of Iranians hate the regime but notes U.S. bombing has likely boosted nationalist support for it.
Zakaria argues globalization is not dying, pointing to new trade deals like EU-Latin America and the resilience of shifting supply chains to Vietnam, India, and Mexico.
Zakaria criticizes U.S. political corruption, citing Trump's 3,700 stock trades and a $2.5 billion UAE investment followed by a coveted Nvidia chip license.
Zakaria would abolish primaries, end gerrymandering, and limit money in politics, arguing they empower extremes over the general electorate.
He changed his mind that economic liberalization leads to political liberalization, citing China's Communist Party control and lessons from the Soviet collapse.

Also from this episode: (7)

Energy (1)

Zakaria warns that cheap drones reveal liquid fossil fuel shipments are vulnerable, creating a lasting risk premium for tanker routes like the Strait of Malacca.

Diplomacy (2)

The UAE's economy has diversified beyond oil into hedge funds, allowing it to leave OPEC and quietly cooperate with Israel, unlike Saudi Arabia which has real public opinion to manage.
Zakaria argues Israel faces no existential threat from Iran, but its rightward political shift prevents concessions needed for Saudi normalization.

Middle East (1)

Zakaria believes Saudi Arabia, with size and wealth, could become a major power if it modernizes, while Iran remains dysfunctional.

Business (2)

He notes the spot price for oil in Asia is $120-$125 a barrel, versus $100-$105 futures, signaling a potential larger economic shock if the crisis persists.
He says the U.S. share of world GDP has held at 25% since 1980 despite China's rise, but warns deficits at 6-7% of GDP are unsustainable and risk dollar dominance.

War (1)

Zakaria concludes the Iran war is a catastrophic geopolitical mistake that benefits China, weakens U.S. alliances, and rehabilitates the Iranian regime.

#Macro #Middle East #Diplomacy #War #Markets

No Agenda Show

Adam Curry

1874 - "Kennel Index" • Jun 4

Adam Curry and John Dvorak highlight Tom Steyer's $300 million presidential campaign and $200 million California gubernatorial bid as financial failures that contradict the narrative that spending guarantees electoral victory.
The hosts critique the media 'podcast circle jerk' of figures like Megyn Kelly and Sean Hannity, accusing them of following clicks and views while expressing manufactured anger about Israel's political influence.
John Dvorak notes that Gen Z's reported 85% opposition to Israel provides a hopeful demographic shift away from current U.S. foreign policy.
Citing a leaked Axios report, the hosts discuss a call where President Trump reportedly told Israeli PM Netanyahu 'you're effing crazy' and 'I'm keeping your behind out of prison' over Lebanon actions.
Adam Curry argues the leak framing Netanyahu as 'bloodthirsty' channels anti-Israel sentiment specifically toward the Prime Minister rather than the nation, a deliberate political tactic.
Four House Republicans - Brian Fitzpatrick, Tom Barrett, Warren Davidson, and Thomas Massey - voted with Democrats on a War Powers Resolution against the Iran war, which the hosts dismiss as unconstitutional grandstanding.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated Iran has no conventional navy or air force after U.S. operations, characterizing its remaining naval assets as 'a bunch of Boston Whalers with machine guns.'
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant accused Senator Ron Wyden of slandering the Treasury to cover up his son's investment meeting with Jeffrey Epstein to solicit funding for Rick's Cabaret.
Detransitioner Chloe Cole testified before Congress that gender transition procedures caused her chronic pain and potential infertility, citing studies showing they do not reduce long-term suicide rates.
The hosts mock President Trump's repeated on-air criticisms of CNN's Kaitlan Collins, including telling her to 'smile more,' and dismiss CNN's framing of it as a unique sexist incident.
Adam Curry notes the Trump administration scrapped a $1.8 billion 'weaponization fund' for perceived political victims after Republican opposition, a plan Democrats claimed could compensate January 6th rioters.
The Washington Post obtained a mock-up design for a $250 bill featuring President Trump, but current law forbids featuring living persons on currency and does not authorize a $250 denomination.

Also from this episode: (6)

Culture (1)

John Dvorak criticizes an Australian official's logic that a transgender woman could be discriminated against for 'potential pregnancy,' calling it an abandonment of basic biology for ideology.

AI & Tech (2)

John Dvorak highlights NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang's vision for meter-free AI agents running on local PCs, which would disrupt the cloud-based subscription models of companies like OpenAI.
Citing commentator Ed Zitron, Dvorak argues the AI investment boom lacks measurable ROI, with companies like Anthropic facing scrutiny after starting to charge actual token rates to enterprise customers.

AI Infrastructure (1)

A CNBC analyst stated data center financing requires $30 to $50 billion in debt, an amount the hosts characterize as an insane capital demand for an unproven ROI.

War (1)

The hosts report Ukraine struck St. Petersburg targeting an oil terminal and naval base, with President Zelenskyy framing deep strikes as a negotiation tactic to create fuel shortages in Russia.

Markets (1)

John Dvorak reports egg prices dropped below $1 per dozen due to oversupply from rebuilt chicken flocks, despite increased American protein consumption.

#War #Diplomacy #Middle East #Israel #Corruption