US chooses Gulf oil over Israel

Middle East (1)

• Jack Mallers states the Strait of Hormuz remains functionally closed, citing daily tanker crossings in the single digits versus pre-conflict levels of 50-100, and notes the signed MOU is merely an agreement to negotiate, not a resolution.

Iran (1)

• Mallers details the US Treasury's 60-day waiver to unsanction Iranian oil, which Javier Blas characterized as rolling back 40-plus years of sanctions, a move driven by fiscal pressure to lower oil prices.

Energy (1)

• He observes oil has dropped over 20%, falling below $75 per barrel, attributing the decline to the unsanctioning of Iranian supply and global strategic reserve drawdowns, not a full reopening of the Strait.

Fed (1)

• Mallers analyzes Fed Chair Warsh's first press conference as hawkish on inflation but predicts the Fed is stuck between cutting rates to weaken the dollar and hiking to fight inflation, with the math favoring eventual cuts to avoid sovereign debt crisis.

Macro (1)

• He argues the US is fiscally trapped: its big three expenses (entitlements, defense, and interest) exceed revenues, and the only escape valve is a weaker dollar and higher inflation, as hiking rates would crash asset prices and tax receipts.

Culture (1)

• Adam Curry notes Father's Day is celebrated on June 21st in 86 countries, but Catholic Europe observes it on March 19th and Germany ties it to Ascension.

War (1)

• Rand Corporation analyst Scott Savitz estimates clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz could take weeks or months, with full traffic resuming within weeks.

Business (1)

• Adam Curry cites California's high fuel prices due to special fuel blends and refinery policies, noting Texas gasoline is around $4.20 while California is $2 more per gallon.

Health (1)

• The Ebola outbreak in Congo has at least 900 cases and 250 deaths, with contact tracing at only 4,000 against a target of 33,000.

AI & Tech (2)

• CNBC reports tech giants plan $750 billion in AI infrastructure spending this year, driving them to raise debt as free cash flow hits dot-com era lows.
• Dvorak explains AI models like Claude can degrade if corrected; he advises resetting context entirely rather than pointing out errors.

Protocol (2)

• Russell says the only viable financial strategy for individuals is self-custody of hard assets and a 10-year sovereign plan to escape inflation and potential asset confiscation.
• Russell finds Bitcoin's governance structure compelling because its rules are fixed and accountable to code, unlike debt-based systems where money creation lacks accountability.

Society (3)

• Russell describes his personal shift away from equity investments and financial systems, viewing them as supporting a harmful 'make-and-take' terrorism, towards community-focused real-world projects.
• Russell argues GDP is a damaging metric that ignores happiness and fosters inequality, contrasting it with Bhutan's Gross Happiness Index.
• Russell asserts that Western society's deep psychological trauma stems from realizing its civilizing ideology was a lie and being deliberately weakened for control via dependency and addiction.

Religion (1)

• Russell states that the preserved Quran, not institutional Islam, offers a sustainable map for human life and governance, having guided his own ethical and financial understanding.

War (1)

• Simon Dixon says Iran's military conflict is theatrical, a coordinated OPEC and Financial Industrial Complex operation to integrate Iran into a new world order.

Macro (1)

• He argues the real goal is a global wealth transfer: high energy prices asset-strip the middle class, justify Fed balance sheet expansion, and create revolutionary conditions for a police state.

China (1)

• Dixon claims China has moved from $1.4 trillion in U.S. Treasuries to $650 billion, redirecting capital into gold, the Belt and Road Initiative, and dedollarization alliances.

Energy (1)

• He identifies a U.S. 'fake and OPEC coalition' of four companies profiting: Cheniere Energy (LNG exports), a Saudi Aramco subsidiary (refining contracts), Golden Pass (70% Qatar-owned), and Exxon/Chevron.

Big Tech (1)

• Dixon states BlackRock's assets under administration grew from $12 trillion to $14 trillion during this period, and its Aladdin AI technology directs $25 trillion of global institutional capital.

War (5)

• Iran could cripple GCC nations by attacking desalination plants, which supply 60% of their water, and disrupt food imports by closing the Strait of Hormuz, which supplies 90% of GCC food.
• The Gulf states recycle petrodollars into US investments, supporting the stock market and AI bubble. If this capital flow stops due to war, the AI bubble and US economy could collapse.
• Nathan Fitzsimmons argues closing the Strait of Hormuz would cut 450 million barrels of oil per month, exceeding the entire US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, causing a historic supply shock.
• LNG shipping rates surged 650% from $40,000 to $300,000 per day due to Middle East tensions, signaling rising energy costs will drive inflation across all goods.
• Nathan Fitzsimmons speculates the US military operation in Venezuela secured oil resources and denied China access, providing a strategic reserve ahead of the Iran conflict.

BTC Markets (1)

• Nathan Fitzsimmons calls the Bitcoin bear market bottom, predicting a grind upwards to six figures within six months, driven by oversold conditions and potential fiscal injections.

Protocol (2)

• Blockstream deployed post-quantum signature verification on the Liquid Network mainnet, marking the first use of such cryptography on a Bitcoin sidechain.
• Nathan Fitzsimmons dismisses quantum threats to Bitcoin as nihilistic fud, noting standard non-reused addresses are hardened and the protocol can adapt via proposals like BIP 360.

Business (1)

• 45,400 businesses closed in Canada in November 2023, continuing a trend of economic decline.