Lebanon, Saudi seek US deals to counter Iran

Friday, July 24, 2026 ·

Summary

Lebanon pitches Trump on private investment to undercut Hezbollah’s grip.
Saudi nuclear deal sidelines Israel and risks regional arms race.
Iran’s resilience and Houthi blockade threaten global oil and US standing.

Lebanon is betting its survival on a business pitch. President Joseph Aoun sat down with Trump not to beg for aid, but to sell a vision: ports, telecoms, and reconstruction - all funded by US investors, not the State Department. The goal is simple - prove the government can deliver what Hezbollah has long provided, and make the militia obsolete.

The stakes are high. Lebanon’s economy has lost 40% of GDP since 2023, its government sat vacant for over two years, and Israel’s war with Hezbollah has left the south in ruins. Aoun and PM Noef Salem, both political outsiders, need private capital fast. The IMF won’t act until banks agree to absorb $80 billion in losses - a hurdle they can’t clear alone.

"They’re trying to show the Shia community that the state, not Hezbollah, can rebuild."
- Greg Karlstrom, The Intelligence from The Economist

Saudi Arabia is making its own play. Trump approved a 30-year nuclear deal giving Riyadh civilian reactors and a path to enrich uranium - a move analysts say is less about energy and more about rewarding Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The deal carries tens of billions in contracts for US firms and no requirement that Saudi normalize ties with Israel.

Ryan Grim on Breaking Points argued the deal abandons decades of nonproliferation policy. "Corruption has officially outpaced non-proliferation as the primary driver," he said. The Nonproliferation Policy Education Center warns Turkey and Egypt will now demand their own programs.

"If Saudi Arabia gets the tech, Turkey and Egypt will be next. The guardrails are gone."
- Ryan Grim, Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

Meanwhile, Iran is proving it can’t be bombed into submission. Eleven straight nights of US strikes have failed to stop drone attacks on Jordan and Iraq. The Pentagon admits interceptor stocks are down 50% to 80%, and Iran is now targeting missile defense units to thin the shield. Tehran also hit desalination plants and bridges - civilian infrastructure - signaling a shift toward total war.

The Houthis have declared a maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia, threatening 4.5 million barrels of daily oil flow through the Red Sea. With US bases under strain and oil prices climbing, the cost of staying is rising faster than the will to fight.

Lebanon’s bet and Saudi’s deal are two sides of the same coin: regional powers turning to US economic ties to offset Iranian influence. But with Trump prioritizing corporate contracts over diplomacy, the strategy risks accelerating the chaos it aims to contain.

3 Sources:

Breaking Points The Economist The Daily

#Diplomacy #Middle East #Regulation

Hezbollah Houthis Pentagon Saudi Arabia Turkey Iran Israel International Monetary Fund

Source Intelligence

- Deep dive into what was said in the episodes

Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

7/22/26: Trump To Bomb Pickaxe Mt, Lebanon Civil War, GOP Screwed In Midterms • Jul 22

Trump approved a landmark deal granting Saudi Arabia a civilian nuclear program and potential uranium enrichment, spanning 30 years and estimated at tens of billions for American companies.
Ryan criticized the Saudi nuclear deal, citing Saudi Arabia's history of "reckless wars," an impulsive authoritarian leader, and alleged involvement in 9/11 and the Khashoggi killing.
The Executive Director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center warned that Saudi nuclear development could spur proliferation in the UAE, Turkey, and Egypt.
US air strikes against Iran continued for an eleventh consecutive night, targeting maritime capabilities, drone facilities, and aircraft hangars to degrade threats in the Strait of Hormuz.
Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich declared the ongoing US-Iran confrontation "the best one for us," as Israel benefits from degraded US military infrastructure without direct involvement.
Secretary Hegseth requested an additional $67 billion for the war on Capitol Hill, bringing the total estimated cost for the Iran conflict to $37.5 billion.
A Wall Street Journal article outlined US and Israeli plans to spark a civil war in Lebanon by training elite Lebanese armed forces to disarm Hezbollah.
Fox News projected the Senate as a toss-up, with control likely decided by races in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Maine; Sherrod Brown led Ohio by 0.6% in RealClearPolitics polling.
Fox News projected Democrats to win the House, with 16 toss-up seats, and showed Democrats leading Republicans by 4% on the generic ballot, a 5-point swing from 2024.
In Arizona, Ami Shah won the 1st District Democratic primary with 26,000 votes, overcoming $2-3 million in PAC/DCCC spending, reflecting low overall primary participation.

Also from this episode: (3)

War (2)

Trump claimed ongoing strikes would target "Pickaxe Mountain," which Ryan identified as a rebranded part of the Natanz nuclear complex, supposedly "obliterated" in the "Twelve Day War."
Iran retaliated for a prior US strike on conscripts by targeting US military personnel, leading to three American soldiers killed and 100 wounded at Tower 22 base in Jordan.

Trade (1)

The Houthis in Yemen banned Saudi-flagged ships or those docking in Saudi ports from passing through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, leading to immediate U-turns by Saudi tankers.

#War #Diplomacy #Elections #Macro #Energy

7/20/26: 4 US Troops Killed, Houthi Red Sea Blockade, Mearsheimer Dire Warning • Jul 20

Krystal cites anonymous officials who warn that expanding US operations is limited by dwindling stockpiles of air defense and long-range munitions. These officials indicate the White House may not be fully aware of these critical limitations.
Martaza Hussein explains Iran's missile strategy initially used older missiles to deplete US regional defenses, now deploying more accurate, advanced missiles. He critiques US air attacks for wasting expensive munitions on Iranian underground bases, which quickly resumed operations.
Saagar notes the Iran war is the least popular in polling history, reaching this level faster than the Vietnam War. However, approximately 30% of the country, primarily Fox News viewers in Trump's base, still support the conflict.
Krystal highlights that Iran's IRGC claimed Jordanian military members provided targeting information for US base strikes. This suggests the political situation in close US ally Jordan is volatile, despite government alignments.
Martaza Hussein argues that US actions have broken trust with Iran, making a diplomatic deal unlikely due to past violations and attacks during negotiations. He suggests a regional veto by Gulf Arab states on US military presence might be the only path to de-escalation.

Also from this episode: (6)

War (3)

Saagar reports four US service members were killed within a 24-hour period: three at a base in Jordan and one in Iraq from an unexploded Iranian drone. Krystal adds the Pentagon withheld information on dozens of US military injuries across the region.
Saagar reports Yemen's Houthis announced a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia in the Bab al Mandeb Strait, impacting 4.5 million barrels per day of Saudi oil exports. Martaza Hussein views this as a worst-case scenario threatening global economies.
Krystal states Ukraine's attacks have idled over half of Russia's oil refinery capacity, impacting global diesel supply as Russia is the world's second-largest exporter. This further strains an already redlined global economy.

Energy (3)

Saagar and Krystal identify China's reduced oil imports as crucial for preventing catastrophic prices, as buying plummeted from 12 million to below 6 million barrels per day. They warn a rebound in Chinese demand will significantly pressure the global market.
Saagar warns that national gas prices are back to $4.00 a gallon, and US crude oil inventories have only 43 days of supply remaining. This is the lowest level in 45 years, making the market extremely vulnerable to disruptions.
Krystal observes oil prices, like Brent crude at $88-89 per barrel, fluctuate based on market "hopium" over proposed negotiations, despite grim indicators. She points to a disconnect between sentiment and the dire reality of dwindling global oil supply.

#War #Iran #Middle East #Energy #Macro

7/17/26: Trump's Wild Elections Speech, Tucker Praises Democrats On Israel Vote, Embarrassing Biden Book Tour • Jul 17

Trump’s White House posted zip files of documents during his election speech alleging a deep state conspiracy, but Shelby Talcott says the CIA-reviewed documents didn’t conclusively prove China rigged the 2020 election.
Trump’s Department of Homeland Security review found 278,000 non-citizens registered to vote in California, New Jersey, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, a claim states are contesting.
Shelby Talcott says Trump’s speech was designed to pressure Republicans to pass the Save America Act, but GOP lawmakers are already firm on their position and see no path to break a filibuster.
The Save America Act is Trump’s signature legislation, but he has held up bipartisan bills to try to pass it, despite Republicans telling him they lack the votes.
Fox News avoided airing Trump’s election speech live and later qualified its reporting, citing legal concerns after the Dominion lawsuits.
Tucker Carlson praised Democrats for opposing Israel aid, noting the issue is a central litmus test in Democratic primaries and that voter pressure forced even centrist Democrats like Katherine Clark to vote against it.
Emily Miller says Republican support for Israel is unsustainable given shifting opinion among younger voters, and that the real political opposition to the war currently comes from Democrats.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claimed strikes on US military facilities in Syria, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain, and Jordan, while the US conducted six consecutive nights of retaliatory strikes.
Secretary of War Pete Hegseth announced a new annual testosterone screening program for military personnel over 30, framing it as an optimization initiative.
The Army extended its maximum recruitment age to 42 earlier this year, a change Emily Miller links to recruitment targets and potential biological age trends.
Joe Biden’s new book 'Promised Me America' comes out November 17, after the midterms, and his promotional video shows visible slurring despite being edited.
Griffin and Emily Miller note Jill Biden’s book tour was disastrous, with a clip showing her awkwardly shutting down Joe on stage, and argue her public insistence on his fitness was complicit.
Emily Miller says Democratic voters distrust the party for concealing Biden’s condition and blocking a real primary, an issue Republicans will face with Trump’s 56% unpopularity rating.
Francesca Hong, a DSA candidate, is running for governor of Wisconsin, and Emily Miller says her primary chances are decent given Wisconsin's socialist history and Bernie Sanders' 2016 primary win.
Spencer Pratt’s post-election shift toward MAGA makes him less viable in California, but Griffin says his original campaign tactic of exposing local crises like Skid Row could have worked.

#War #Elections #China #Middle East #Diplomacy

The Intelligence from The Economist

Hard cedar: Lebanon seeks Trump’s help • Jul 21

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun's visit to the White House marks the first such presidential summit in nearly two decades, occurring amidst Lebanon's deep financial crisis, an ongoing power struggle against Hezbollah, and conflict with Israel.
Greg Karlstrom states the past seven years have been Lebanon's worst since its civil war ended in 1990, enduring one of modern history's worst financial crises, a major explosion, and three years of war with Israel, often without a proper government.
After a prolonged government vacuum that included over two years with a vacant presidential palace, Joseph Aoun became president and Noef Salem prime minister early last year, both political outsiders tasked with national reform.
The conflict between Hezbollah and Israel has caused over 4,000 deaths, including civilians, medics, and journalists, and Economy Minister Amr Mbassat estimates the total economic damage at 40% of Lebanon's GDP, likely pushing the country into recession.
Despite a June diplomatic agreement between Israel and Lebanon for a ceasefire and troop withdrawal, the deal remains vague on key criteria, and Israel continues periodic airstrikes in Lebanon.
Lebanon's government needs to accelerate reforms to secure an IMF deal, particularly resolving how to apportion the $80 billion in banking sector losses, as banks still exert significant political power.
President Aoun seeks three main outcomes from his White House meeting: support for the Lebanese army, American pressure on Israel for troop withdrawal, and U.S. investment in sectors like ports and telecommunications, not foreign aid.
Red Bull, founded in 1984 by Dietrich Mateschitz, achieved global success through extensive marketing, including sponsoring extreme sports and developing its own media channels, making its TV channel the second largest broadcaster in Austria.
Wendelin von Bredow notes Red Bull holds 28% of the global energy drink market, outpacing Monster's 17%, and sold 14 billion cans last year, representing a 10% increase, while employing 22,000 people in 178 countries.
Red Bull's business model dedicates a third of its revenue to marketing, significantly more than rivals like Monster (7% of sales), and outsources all manufacturing and distribution, making the company debt-free.
Doug Dowson's analysis of census data indicates a narrowing age gap in marriages among the wealthy; in 1980, 8% of top 1% earners married someone at least a decade younger, compared to 5% of typical earners, but this gap closed by 2024.
A study on the Forbes 400 list found the wealthiest men were, on average, seven years older than their wives, significantly more than the general population's 2-3 year gap; this age difference increased to 22 years for men who remarried.
Doug Dowson attributes the changing age gap to education, as individuals who spend more time in higher education often earn more and socialize with peers closer to their own age during prime dating years.

Also from this episode: (1)

Health (1)

Due to health concerns, countries like Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland have banned Red Bull sales to individuals under 18, with Britain planning a similar ban to take effect next year.

#Middle East #Trade #Macro #Markets #Society

The Daily

As the Iran War Escalates, Is the U.S. Hiding Its Toll? • Jul 21

Eric Schmidt reports a Friday barrage of Iranian missiles and drones hit a major air base in Jordan, killing at least two, possibly three, U.S. Army soldiers and injuring several others. This attack follows a week of hostile exchanges as the ceasefire collapsed.
Despite over 13,000 U.S. strikes damaging Iran's Air Force and Navy, Eric Schmidt notes Iran retained robust capabilities, including numerous attack drones, mine-laying boats, and missiles. American officials believe Iran used the ceasefire to rebuild these capabilities.
Eric Schmidt highlights a significant reduction in Pentagon transparency since early May, with no news conferences. This contrasts with earlier phases when announcements included fatalities and a running tally of injuries.
The Pentagon cited "operational security" for not disclosing three prior Iranian attacks on the Jordan base that wounded U.S. troops before the deadly Friday strike. Eric Schmidt argues this reveals a tension between protecting information and informing the public.
Michael Barbaro suggests the ceasefire has become a pretext for the administration to disclose less about the war's true state, while Eric Schmidt explains that acknowledging new deaths during a ceasefire challenges the narrative of reduced risk.
Eric Schmidt details the war's expansion, now involving countries like Bahrain, Kuwait, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan. Iran's strategy aims to inflict pain on U.S. allies by targeting civilian infrastructure to pressure the U.S. or make allies reconsider hosting its military.
Iran is threatening to activate the Houthis in Yemen, leading Saudi Arabia to launch preemptive strikes. Eric Schmidt reports the Houthis responded by threatening to close the Red Sea to Saudi traffic, opening a second front in the five-month-old war.
Both sides are striking a wider range of targets. The U.S. now hits civilian infrastructure like bridges (dual-use), while Iran targets energy sites and critical desalination plants, indicating an escalation in the perceived tolerable human toll.
The U.S. maintains about 15,000 troops for the naval blockade and 50,000 troops overall in the region and Europe supporting the campaign. Eric Schmidt states that fighter jets like F-16s and F-35s are being rushed back to the Middle East from Europe.
While President Trump discusses potential ground options, such as seizing Karg Island, military commanders indicate there is no public or congressional appetite for such operations.
Michael Barbaro reports President Trump reignited the trade war with Canada by imposing a 50% tariff on various Canadian products, citing Canada's discriminatory treatment of U.S. goods.
A federal judge temporarily halted Paramount's $11 billion purchase of Warner Bros. Discovery following an antitrust lawsuit from 12 Democratic states, which argues the merger would harm movie theaters, TV providers, and audiences.
The New York Times is challenging a second set of Trump administration subpoenas seeking to unmask confidential sources who provided information about Air Force One security. These subpoenas targeted third-party phone records of reporters and their relatives.

Also from this episode: (2)

War (2)

Eric Schmidt states that with the deaths in Jordan and another Army soldier killed in Iraq by an Iranian drone, the total number of Americans killed in the war has reached 17.
Eric Schmidt warns that withholding war details from the public, especially during escalation, carries the risk of obscuring the true dimensions of the conflict. He notes the Pentagon disclosed 100 injuries since July 7th only after New York Times reporting.

#War #Diplomacy #Middle East

Lebanon, Saudi seek US deals to counter Iran

Source Intelligence

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