Democrats map probes of Trump and powerful interests

Labor (1)

• Kayleen Fulton alleges the Ethereum Foundation fired her after she disclosed cancer and helped organize a staff letter opposing a job requirement tied to the new mandate; her complaint also alleges Vitalik Buterin helped enforce it. The mandate included a pledge to take one’s life with a sword, which the foundation’s lawyer called figurative.

Startups (1)

• Anthropic set an IPO range of $70 to $78 a share, with trading targeted for November 19 and roughly 20% of shares allocated to retail buyers. David Bennett advises waiting after listing, arguing IPO spikes can leave retail investors holding losses as institutions sell.

Chips (1)

• Google introduced two eighth-generation TPU systems for confidential computing and memory-heavy AI, and says its software can cut some data-transfer delays and startup times by more than 90%. David Bennett sees the launch as a threat to Nvidia, while Google’s performance comparisons are against its own earlier hardware, not Nvidia’s latest chips.

Inflation (1)

• October CPI rose faster than forecast, and David Bennett argues higher rates may slow further inflation without reversing consumers’ existing price increases. Bitcoin traded at $72,890; the episode’s market roundup also put oil, metals, equities, network fees, and hash rate under pressure or below recent levels.

Nostr (1)

• Zap Cooking combines Nostr recipe publishing with an iPhone app that searches recipes, scales ingredient quantities, and guides users through one cooking step at a time. David Bennett says its polished, practical design could bring people to Nostr; four new recipes had appeared since the previous day.

Nation-State (1)

• Elliptic says North Korean launderers moved stolen Binance funds through six self-created NEAR meme coins, using liquidity pools to obscure direct wallet-to-wallet transfers and buy time. The tokens leave public on-chain trails; the wider theft response spans thousands of wallets and multiple blockchains.

Regulation (1)

• Coinbase, Kalshi, Kraken, DRW Holdings, Jump Trading, and Paradigm filed a letter supporting the CFTC in a Southern District of New York case over its authority to regulate perpetual futures tied to individual stocks. The lawsuit was brought by the Capital Markets Alliance.

AI Infrastructure (1)

• AI data-center developers are buying refurbished turbines and retired jet engines because new U.S. gas turbines take years to arrive. David Bennett argues on-site generation could ease grid pressure, though electricity delivery and aging grid infrastructure remain constraints.

Elections (1)

• David Bennett says the Democratic election sweep will change the political flavor without easing household costs; he doubts Democrats can affect Strait of Hormuz disruptions and speculates Trump could resume bombing Iran.

Regulation (3)

• House Democrats are discussing a crypto market structure bill that would give the SEC more authority and the CFTC less, building on provisions Maxine Waters previously proposed.
• The House-passed CLARITY Act would put most digital commodity trading under the CFTC and exempt some mature-blockchain tokens from SEC registration; David Bennett says agency rulemaking could reverse when leadership changes.
• Block agreed in principle to a DOJ resolution over anti-money-laundering controls, while its Bitcoin profit fell after it cut transaction fees; the company rejected Hindenburg Research's allegations, and New York regulators separately found compliance gaps.

Banking (1)

• Crédit Mutuel Arkéa said attackers reached the bank through a service provider and used the bank's own account for fraudulent transfers; the bank said customer assets were untouched and some funds were frozen.

Markets (1)

• David Bennett reported broad losses across stocks and mixed commodity moves alongside Bitcoin's decline; he also noted higher Bitcoin transaction fees, a modest mempool queue, and a small drop in hash rate.

Stablecoins (1)

• Paolo Ardoino said Tether holds roughly 150,000 Bitcoin, about 50,000 more than its latest reserve attestation implies; Tether says profit-funded investments sit outside USDT reserves, but the location and ownership of the extra coins remain unclear.

AI Infrastructure (3)

• OpenAI says its Grid Protectors program would let AI facilities cut electricity use during grid emergencies, while its reported shift from “data centers” to “compute campuses” aims to improve public acceptance of the same infrastructure.
• Sam Altman said his comments about idle computer memory were taken out of context, but he had argued that scarce DRAM should be used efficiently in cloud systems; memory makers warn supply will remain tight as AI demand grows.
• Texas's unexpected Democratic gubernatorial win has put AI data-center approvals and power access in doubt; analysts see already-secured grid capacity as an advantage for miners shifting toward AI hosting.

Labor (1)

• David Bennett warned that a pause in Texas data-center construction could hit electricians, plumbers, HVAC workers, and other trades; he also recalled that Texas felt much the same to him under Democratic Governor Ann Richards as under later Republican leadership.

Iran (5)

• Donald Trump acknowledged that voters disliked the Iran war and rising gas prices, then argued the war would be vindicated because it stopped Iran getting a nuclear weapon. Krystal countered that Iran may now be closer to a weapon and that Trump abandoned the JCPOA, which Iran had been following.
• Donald Trump publicly said JD Vance was right to question the Iran decisions, then faulted Vance for not saying Trump should make the same choice again. Saagar read the exchange as a warning about Vance’s prospects as a future Republican leader.
• Donald Trump said Pete Hegseth could stay, crediting him as part of victories in Iran and Venezuela. Krystal and Saagar expected Hegseth to be safe because firing him would undermine Trump’s claim that the Iran war was a success and replacement confirmation would be difficult.
• Iran’s foreign minister said a two-day proposal remained available if the United States ended the war on all fronts, while warning of further retaliation. Saagar said gas had fallen below $4 a gallon on hopes of a deal; Krystal warned the price could rise again if diplomacy failed.
• Krystal said Iran diplomacy remained fragile because Trump would have to accept a deal that could look like a retreat, while hawkish commentators pressed for escalation. She also noted Netanyahu’s political future was uncertain and said that could give him an incentive to resume conflict.

Elections (2)

• Saagar argued the Iran war helped Democrats win in South Carolina, Mississippi, and Kansas, while Krystal said immigration enforcement also hurt Republicans in Texas. Saagar said James Talarico won Texas by 12 points, including without its most populous counties; Annie Andrews won South Carolina by five points.
• Krystal said Republicans face a harsher political calculation after the midterms: they must now worry about general-election losses as well as Trump-backed primary challenges. She said the 2028 Senate map favors Democrats and makes a Senate supermajority easier to imagine than it had been before this cycle.

Immigration (1)

• Donald Trump floated a possible immigration deal for long-term workers facing deportation, but Krystal doubted he would follow through. She argued that elevating Stephen Miller to chief of staff mattered more than Trump’s conciliatory interview, given Miller’s influence over immigration policy.

Corruption (3)

• Donald Trump rejected Ross Douthat’s claim that his net worth rose by $3 billion, saying he did not track his wealth and had long held substantial cash. Krystal called Trump’s defense of his crypto holdings and foreign-government ties corrupt, not comparable to earlier presidents’ assets.
• Calley Means accused Susie Wiles of benefiting from lobbying ties and said her daughter’s firm gained White House access. Means said Continental Strategies’ revenue rose to about $30 million a year, while Ballard Partners became the highest-revenue lobbying firm in history.
• Saagar and Krystal rejected Calley Means’s claim that Trump was kept uninformed and treated like a baby, arguing Trump had agency and knew about choices such as glyphosate policy. They said Trump used MAHA to win votes but did not prioritize its goals over corporate interests.

Media (1)

• Donald Trump announced Dana White as a possible press secretary, then said the offer was a joke; White declined the job. Krystal thought the mix-up may have begun with a recommendation of Dana W. White, a Defense Department public-affairs official.

Health (1)

• The hosts cited fruit-flavored vapes, kratom, glyphosate, cannabis, and ultra-processed food as examples of conflicts between MAHA goals and administration choices. Saagar argued food restrictions could raise prices; Krystal said stronger school-food standards would face a fight from companies profiting from school sales.

War (1)

• Thomas Massie’s Hegseth impeachment resolution could attract Republican defections, including from lawmakers who lost elections and blame the Iran war. Hakeem Jeffries said he would vote yes; Don Bacon and French Hill were undecided, and Hill said the commander in chief bears responsibility for war strategy.

Diplomacy (1)

• The Emir of Qatar was in Washington to meet Donald Trump and JD Vance, underscoring Qatar’s role as a diplomatic channel in the Iran conflict. Krystal said Gadi Eisenkot had been asked to try to form an Israeli government, but failure could leave Netanyahu as caretaker prime minister before another election.

Media (2)

• The hosts challenged Free Press reporter Olivia Rheingold’s designer-fashion post after she corrected the event attribution and said ChatGPT had sharpened her photo; they also criticized her famine reporting for relying on online searches, contacting no families, and claiming 12 cases when the hosts counted 10, or possibly 11.
• David Sirota said independent media can expose gaps between politicians’ promises and their actions, making post-election scrutiny essential. He described The Lever as built to pressure Democrats to deliver on economic-populist, anti-war, and anti-genocide promises rather than return to business as usual.

Elections (7)

• The hosts argued that economic populism and affordability united otherwise ideologically different Democratic candidates, with Zohran Mamdani’s campaign framing echoed by candidates nationwide. They said winning now depends on delivering material improvements, including housing, childcare, transit, and healthcare.
• Election results showed large swings in places treated as safely red or blue: Bobby Pulido won a Trump-plus-16 district by about 20 points, while James Tallarico’s early votes alone exceeded Ken Paxton’s total vote count. The hosts argued that party coalitions and state identities can change quickly.
• Democrats made sweeping gains in state governments, including six new trifectas and 11 legislative chambers changing from Republican to Democratic control. The hosts said those victories could shape redistricting, law enforcement, abortion policy, and school standards for years.
• New Democratic members from conservative districts voiced support for Medicare for All, conditional foreign aid, and a tougher stance toward Israel, while several withheld support for Hakeem Jeffries until they heard his commitments. Chuck Hubbard described himself as center-left and backed universal healthcare; Victoria Broderick called her campaign the district’s most progressive.
• David Sirota contrasted the new populist candidates with the 2006 Democratic wave, when Rahm Emanuel recruited economically conservative candidates who later helped produce an incoherent party agenda. Sirota argued that anti-oligarch politics now reads as mainstream because voters want economic change.
• Chuck Schumer’s and Hakeem Jeffries’s leadership positions faced pressure after the election, with David Sirota questioning whether either could be trusted to deliver policy commitments. Sirota said a large freshman class could loosen Jeffries’s hold, while critics pointed to his opposition to Medicare for All and refusal to promise a vote.
• The hosts said Republicans remain broadly pro-Trump and pro-Israel but that criticism of Trump, including over the Iran war, has become more public. They discussed Thomas Massie as a possible future challenger and said Trump’s weakening control could reopen the Republican populist movement’s internal fight.

Iran (1)

• Chris Van Hollen and Ro Khanna proposed using the continuing resolution due December 11 to bar federal funding for the Iran war. A host cited the Vietnam-era funding restriction as precedent and argued that anti-war groups should demand an immediate end rather than defer action to later defense bills.

Health (1)

• Bernie Sanders said Democrats should pass Medicare for All and dare Donald Trump to veto it, arguing Trump may be less ideological than his party. The hosts also urged Democrats to restore Medicaid cuts and Affordable Care Act subsidies, making Trump responsible if he blocks popular healthcare measures.

AI Infrastructure (1)

• Technology stocks and Bitcoin fell after the election as investors priced in Democratic oversight and local resistance to data centers; the hosts said AI firms were already trying to rebrand with promises on schools, jobs, labor, and environmental impacts. Jason Calacanis proposed taxing data centers to fund universal healthcare.

Models (1)

• The hosts argued that current AI products have not improved everyday life as clearly as earlier consumer technologies, while data centers have made the costs visible to communities. One host also warned that Anthropic may be accelerating toward recursive self-improvement despite Dario Amodei’s public call to slow frontier development.

History (1)

• The hosts compared Bernie Sanders’s influence on younger Democrats to Barry Goldwater’s effect on the Republican agenda, while noting that Sanders’s campaigns supplied a populist frame for later candidates. They linked millennial politics to the Iraq War, the financial crisis, Occupy, and disappointment with Barack Obama’s governing record.

Regulation (1)

• The hosts opposed impeachment as a media spectacle unless investigations produce evidence strong enough to win Senate conviction; they suggested the Iran war’s legality or insider trading could supply a case. They also said Angie Nixon plans to run for Senate in 2028 after narrowly missing a statewide win.

Corruption (1)

• Isaac Saul says government corruption was a decisive election issue: 90% of exit-poll respondents said it mattered to their vote, and a Fox News poll had already ranked it the public’s top concern. Saul links its salience to voters facing high living costs while Trump’s net worth quadrupled in two years.

Elections (8)

• Ron DeSantis says Republicans wasted hundreds of millions of dollars on transgender-focused campaign ads instead of addressing voters’ priorities, and argues those culture-war policies had already been handled in Florida. Saagar reads DeSantis’s criticism of stock trading, executive-branch rules, and federal limits on state AI regulation as positioning for 2028.
• Laura Loomer questioned why God allowed the country to be taken over by Muslims and communists after Republican losses. Alex Jones claimed Trump was a Democratic sleeper agent sent to destroy the GOP, while Megyn Kelly said Republicans must rebuild independently of Trump and restore Congress’s role as a check on presidential power.
• Saagar argues Trump will keep dominating Republican politics after leaving office because he will continue seeking attention, defending his legacy, and influencing party leaders. The hosts say the party lacks a coherent platform beyond Trump’s shifting positions, with divisions over Israel, Iran, immigration, trade, and corporate ownership.
• Saul says affordability-focused candidates in Texas and Ohio won with populist messages resembling Bernie Sanders’s and Trump’s earlier rhetoric. Fox News hosts disagreed over the losses: one called the result a normal midterm backlash, while another said ICE images and grocery prices showed voters wanted Republicans to change course.
• Saagar and the other host compare Trump’s potential hold on the GOP to the long delay before Republicans openly rejected the Iraq War. They cite Ronald Reagan’s midterm loss of eight Senate seats followed by a 49-state presidential victory as a precedent, while arguing Trump is unlikely to leave party politics quietly.
• Ro Khanna says the election rejected Trump’s Iran war, support for Israel, and corruption, and reflected voters’ desire for outsiders who challenge the establishment. Khanna argues Congress should cut off funding for combat operations in Iran through a continuing resolution, rather than wait until the new year.
• Khanna says he is seriously considering a presidential run and wants candidates to take clear positions against war, U.S. military support for Israel, and billionaire wealth. His stated platform includes recognizing a Palestinian state, opening embassies in East Jerusalem and Ramallah, stopping arms sales, and establishing Medicare for All.
• Khanna proposes an agenda of Medicare for All, free childcare, free college, a billionaire tax, and lower Pentagon spending, alongside investigations into pay-to-play and crypto corruption, the Epstein files, and the wars in the Caribbean and Iran. He says Democrats still need to build a clear agenda and deliver results rather than treat the election as a lasting mandate.

War (2)

• Khanna says ending the Iran war could lower gas, diesel, and food prices before Christmas, and argues Congress can refuse to appropriate money without defunding the military as a whole. He rejects delaying the fight until January, citing immediate household costs and the danger of further escalation.
• Khanna says he will press Hakeem Jeffries for commitments to oppose the Iran war, seek a vote on zeroing out Israel aid, and hold a Medicare for All vote or hearings before deciding how to support Jeffries for House speaker. Khanna dodges a direct question about withholding his vote if Jeffries refuses.

Elections (9)

• After the midterm defeat, Donald Trump spent nearly half an hour praising the White House ballroom’s beauty and security, including its bulletproof glass and drone- and missile-resistant construction. Krystal said the spectacle captured Trump’s focus on his project over voters’ financial strain.
• Donald Trump said he would work with Democrats after the election and did not want to spend two years vetoing everything. Saagar contrasted the conciliatory response with Trump’s defiant reaction to the 2018 midterms.
• Saagar said the Iran war intensified the Democratic gains but did not explain the whole result; Krystal pointed to cost of living, ICE enforcement, and a Supreme Court decision affecting Black voters as additional forces.
• Democrats flipped 17 House seats that had voted for Trump by double digits, with many of the largest shifts in the South. Saagar also cited 25-point swings in Texas and Georgia; Krystal highlighted gains in heavily Black areas.
• Saagar said Democrats had flipped more Senate seats in states Trump won by 10 points than all opposition parties combined over the previous 40 years. He compared the party’s post-election challenge to the post-Watergate Democrats, who won big without building a durable governing coalition before Ronald Reagan’s 1980 victory.
• Krystal said Democratic candidates won with an affordability and anti-oligarch message while taking different positions on cultural issues. She argued that voters rewarded candidates who stated their party affiliation plainly, citing Adam Hamilton’s Kansas win over independent candidates Dan Osborn and Todd Achilles.
• Scott Colombe’s campaign video turned Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith’s suggestion that people struggling to afford beef should pick another protein into the line, “I’d rather pick another senator.” Krystal called the ad memorable and said Hyde-Smith had taken the race for granted.
• J.D. Vance said Republican turnout was not the main problem: many 2024 Trump-Vance voters turned against Republicans in 2026. He blamed the Iran war and cited voters’ concerns about living costs, America First priorities, and the relationship with Israel.
• Krystal said Vance cannot credibly present himself as separate from the administration after publicly defending its Iran war, ICE actions, and economic record. Saagar noted that Vance had privately pushed diplomacy, but argued that public defenses undermine that account ahead of 2028.

Immigration (1)

• Vance said he was open to focusing immigration enforcement on businesses that hire undocumented workers, while rejecting amnesty. Saagar treated the proposal as an acknowledgment that the administration could change its enforcement approach.

War (1)

• Vance’s criticism of the Iran war triggered an intra-Republican fight: pro-Israel commentators accused him of scapegoating Israel, while others argued the administration should have pressed the war further. Krystal said Republican fortunes improved when gas prices eased and a ceasefire understanding briefly raised hopes the conflict might end.

Elections (9)

• Michelle Goldberg credits Texas Democrats’ gains to a full slate of serious candidates, whose events, ads, and turnout efforts reinforced one another instead of relying on a single marquee campaign. Democrats won four of five redistricted House seats and made major gains in the Texas House.
• Michelle Goldberg says James Talarico paired a religious appeal to love and neighborliness with populist attacks on billionaires and corporate power. His campaign offered a different political tone without asking Democrats to stop fighting over economic inequality.
• Michelle Goldberg says Ossoff drew on Georgia’s civil-rights tradition and built support among Black voters and suburban women who had become politically active after 2016. His attacks on Mike Collins tied election denial and racial provocation to constituent costs and corruption.
• Jon Ossoff’s reserved, carefully written speeches stood out against politicians copying Donald Trump’s loose, constant-media style. Michelle Goldberg says Ossoff believes restraint can make voters more attentive when he speaks, and noted that he writes his own speeches.
• Michelle Goldberg says Democratic gains in the South made Republican seats newly contestable, raising the stakes for candidate recruitment and sustained party investment. She cited Scott Colom’s Mississippi race after his blocked federal judicial appointment, and questioned how Republicans can hold a coalition together across a changing electorate.
• Michelle Goldberg criticizes Democratic leaders for favoring Haley Stevens’s establishment backing over the visibility and energy of Abdul El-Sayed and Mallory McMorrow. Goldberg also saw a sharp drop in enthusiasm between Graham Platner’s campaign and Troy Jackson’s later Maine events.
• Abdul El-Sayed ran as a working-class populist, arguing that attacks on his name and Muslim faith distracted from the cost of gas, groceries, and medical care. Michelle Goldberg says his win showed that a candidate can face heavy identity-based attacks and still succeed with a focused economic message.
• Adam Hamilton combined a pastor’s appeal to shared values with populist criticism of Roger Marshall’s treatment of patients’ medical debt. Hamilton described himself as both liberal and conservative and called himself pro-life with a heavy heart, a culturally moderate style Goldberg compared with older Democratic campaigns.
• Michelle Goldberg says Democrats are reconsidering which voters they can win: some MAGA voters may respond to candidates who address economic hardship with respect and practical help, not only to appeals aimed at educated suburbanites. She contrasts that approach with the resistance strategy that followed Trump’s 2016 victory.

AI Infrastructure (1)

• Texas residents blamed data centers for noise, livestock disruption, falling property values, water risks, and construction in rural areas. Michelle Goldberg says Talarico and Gina Hinojosa turned that local anger into populist opposition to tech billionaires and an AI buildout residents felt they could not control.

Education (1)

• Michelle Goldberg found anger among conservative Texas voters over Greg Abbott’s school vouchers, which residents said were draining public schools. One former superintendent who had voted Democratic only once since the 1990s joined Gina Hinojosa’s campaign over the issue.

Immigration (1)

• Michelle Goldberg says immigration enforcement drove a sharp Democratic swing in heavily Hispanic Texas border counties, after residents saw relatives and neighbors detained and heard accounts of citizens being roughed up by ICE. Bobby Pulido won a Trump district by 25 points.

Corruption (1)

• Jon Ossoff connected Donald Trump’s corruption to household costs, arguing that public money and policy were benefiting Trump-aligned donors while constituents paid more for health care, gas, and groceries. Michelle Goldberg says Ossoff made complex allegations, including a Kazakhstan tungsten deal, into clear political stories.

Health (1)

• Michelle Goldberg says Medicare for All, once treated as an electoral liability, drew little effective attack in Michigan as health-care costs shaped voters’ concerns. She expects health reform to return to Democratic debate and noted that several doctors are entering the Senate caucus.

History (1)

• Michelle Goldberg recommended three novels: Patmina Sabbat’s Good People, about an Afghan American family and assimilation; Mario Vargas Llosa’s The Feast of the Goat, about Dominican dictator Rafael Trujillo; and Leonardo Padura’s The Man Who Loved Dogs, about Leon Trotsky’s assassination.

Elections (13)

• Ezra Klein says the midterm made the political map look wide open: Democrats won races in Kansas, Texas, Iowa and South Carolina, while the Mississippi Senate race remained undecided. The result upended assumptions about which states Democrats could contest.
• Ezra Klein argues Trump lost support by ignoring voters’ priorities: he promised lower costs, fewer wars and border order, then raised costs with tariffs, entered new wars and sent masked ICE agents into settled communities. Trump never acknowledged the public’s anger or changed course.
• Ezra Klein credits Democrats’ candidate recruitment and big-tent approach: Josh Turek, Adam Hamilton and James Talarico had local appeal, while candidates with varied backgrounds and identities won. The results undercut claims that women, Black candidates or other underrepresented groups lose because of their identity.
• Democrats’ wins included the first openly gay male senator, the first Muslim senator, the first Black female governor, a senator with spina bifida and a Native American first. Ezra Klein says candidates’ records of appealing to the voters they need matter more than identity-based assumptions.
• Ezra Klein says candidate fit mattered more than a simple moderate-versus-progressive label. James Talarico combined progressive healthcare and populist themes with more conservative positions on oil and gas and border security; the transcript cites Roy Cooper’s 20-point and John Ossoff’s 18-point wins.
• Ezra Klein cautions Democrats against treating progressive candidates’ electoral performance as a verdict on their ideas or value. He calls Abdul El-Sayed impressive, but says his roughly seven-point win in a Democratic-leaning environment was not the strongest evidence for how to win new states.
• Maine’s 2nd District illustrates the cost of driving out a useful coalition member, Ezra Klein argues: Jared Golden, the most conservative House Democrat, retired after pressure from the left, and Matt Dunlap’s race for the seat remained close even in a large Democratic wave.
• Aaron Redica questions how much damage it took to turn voters against Trump; Ezra Klein answers that voters punish governments when life gets worse, regardless of a politician’s style. The transcript also notes that Trump benefited from a strong economy during much of his first term.
• Aaron Redica calls the racial realignment theory premature: male voters swung 17 points toward Democrats, voters aged 18 to 29 swung 32 points and Hispanic voters swung 28 points. Ezra Klein warns that results cannot distinguish persuasion from turnout; midterm coalitions do not guarantee the next presidential result.
• Ezra Klein says midterm waves have no fixed sequel: Democrats’ 2006 gains preceded Barack Obama’s 2008 win and a 60-seat Senate majority, but Republicans’ 1994 and 2010 waves were followed by Bill Clinton’s 1996 and Obama’s 2012 victories. Democrats also won after the 2018 midterms.
• Ezra Klein describes John Ossoff as a disciplined, attention-savvy politician who has proved he can win in a competitive state. Democratic gains also extended to governorships; the transcript says Democrats now control states totaling 392 electoral votes.
• Elon Musk’s political spending failed to protect Republicans in Texas and may have backfired, Ezra Klein says; Musk spent $500 million, much of it in Texas. Democrats also campaigned against data centers, and nearly all proposed local moratoriums had passed as the episode was recorded.
• Ezra Klein argues that Trumpism never formed a coherent ideology because Trump prioritizes personal control and loyalty over policy consistency. He says factions will blame one another after the losses, while J.D. Vance may present himself as a version of Trumpism without the war despite weak electoral results and low popularity.

AI Infrastructure (1)

• Ezra Klein sees major risks ahead: an AI capital-spending boom could collapse, the Iran war could widen, and conflicts involving Israel, Russia and Ukraine, or China and Taiwan could escalate. He also flags Trump’s health and the possibility of AI systems hacking into China.

Religion (1)

• Ezra Klein and Aaron Redica see an opening for a religious left that speaks explicitly about virtue and neighborly obligation. They praise James Talarico, Adam Hamilton, Abdul El-Sayed and John Ossoff, while criticizing cruelty in the campaigns of Ken Paxton and Vivek Ramaswamy and Roger Marshall’s treatment of patients.

Elections (36)

• Caio Almendra describes Brazil’s first-round results as a crisis for the left: Bolsonarismo expanded its congressional bench, and Flávio Bolsonaro’s platform threatened deep cuts, political reprisals, and harsher criminal penalties.
• Caio Almendra says Lula’s campaign moved to ban online sports betting just before the first round, a popular proposal aimed at a country where gambling addiction affects millions.
• Caio Almendra argues that fear alone could not revive the campaign; student marches, viral creator content, and visible street organizing helped turn despair into shared hope and participation.
• Caio Almendra says Flávio Bolsonaro’s public image was vulnerable to alleged links among banker Daniel Vorcaro, a betting platform, a megachurch, and political donors, while mainstream coverage largely ignored the story.
• Caio Almendra says Flávio Bolsonaro’s circle proposed ending Bolsa Família, freezing wages, and resisting shorter workweeks, while an allied pastor’s anti-Catholic attacks risked alienating Brazil’s Catholic majority.
• Caio Almendra presents André Janones as an unconventional online campaign organizer whose WhatsApp channel gave Lula supporters daily marching orders and grew far beyond its original target.
• Caio Almendra says Janones’s network countered far-right message repetition by circulating the same content widely, blocking hostile accounts, and using curiosity-driven teasers to disrupt online narratives.
• Caio Almendra credits Janones with channeling popular mobilization, but notes that Erika Hilton built a comparable organizing network; the campaign’s scale came from collective energy, not one strategist alone.
• Danielle Lee Thompson says election researchers use “rumor” for uncertain claims whose truth and intent are not yet established; misinformation is false or misleading without proven intent, while disinformation is deliberately deceptive.
• Stephen Prohaska says rigged-election rumors often mislead by distorting evidence, exaggerating the effect of real problems, ignoring remedies, or assigning malicious intent to routine errors.
• Danielle Lee Thompson says election administration varies by jurisdiction, so unfamiliar procedures can look suspicious when they are routine; backup paper ballots and other safeguards can resolve many reported problems.
• Danielle Lee Thompson says a president’s control of federal agencies and the rise of prediction markets have changed the rumor environment, while anxiety about federal interference has also increased rumor-sharing among left-leaning communities.
• Danielle Lee Thompson says Trump offered a $1 million reward for reports of election fraud through fraud.gov, turning a public fraud-reporting portal into a high-profile invitation to search for evidence.
• Stephen Prohaska says non-citizen voting claims are amplified through public arrests and ambiguous evidence despite being statistically rare; the Brennan Center study he cited found a negligible share of voters were non-citizens.
• Stephen Prohaska describes election contestation as a three-stage process: convince audiences fraud is happening, collect purported evidence, then use that evidence in lawsuits and political messaging.
• Garrison Davis reports a sweeping Democratic victory in the U.S. midterms, with Democrats projected to gain a large House majority and substantially expand their Senate advantage.
• Garrison Davis highlights Democratic Senate wins in Michigan, Maine, North Carolina, South Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, and Kansas, including victories in states Trump had carried comfortably in 2024.
• Garrison Davis says several Democratic candidates campaigned against attacks on trans people, while others adopted restrictive positions; the issue appeared across swing-state campaigns and ballot measures.
• Stephen Monticelli says Texas Democrats made gains across statewide and rural races, while the results exposed political damage from Republican policies and candidates rather than a few isolated wins.
• Stephen Monticelli says Texas Republicans’ hard-right primary politics did not translate into general-election support; Paxton’s corruption record, cost-of-living pressures, school vouchers, and anti-trans attacks all fed voter backlash.
• Robert Evans says Dan Patrick helped build Texas Republicans’ legislative infrastructure and pushed restrictive abortion and school policies; Monticelli notes that opposition to hemp-derived cannabis rules also angered voters.
• The panel reports Democratic gains in governorships and state legislatures, including five new state trifectas and advances in several chambers where Democrats still fell short of unified control.
• Kevin Foster says Washington voters rejected repeal of the state’s millionaire tax but approved a measure requiring sex-at-birth documentation for school sports; the ACLU planned a legal challenge.
• Garrison Davis says anti-trans ballot measures also passed in Arizona and Colorado, while Missouri voters rejected a bundled amendment that would have restricted abortion and gender-affirming care for minors.
• Robert Evans says a Silicon Valley-backed effort to elect Pete Ricketts succeeded in Nebraska, while independent Dan Osborn’s labor-focused campaign ultimately lost.
• James Stout says California voters appeared to reject a one-time billionaire wealth tax, while a separate measure extending higher income taxes on top earners looked likely to pass.
• The panel says the election brought a sharp shift among younger voters, including young men, and that many young voters identified with democratic socialism.
• Garrison Davis says Republican redistricting failed to deliver seats and instead angered voters, increased Black turnout, and spread Republican voters across districts that Democrats then won.
• The panel reports strong Indigenous candidate results and turnout, including Deb Haaland’s New Mexico gubernatorial win and Peggy Flanagan’s Minnesota victory.
• Kevin Foster says Portland’s DSA-backed city council candidates held their seats, while San Diego organizers began the process to recall Mayor Todd Gloria over homelessness, policing, and alleged real-estate conflicts.
• James Stout says the Supreme Court unanimously rejected the Justice Department’s request to segregate California ballots, denying a last effort to preserve a challenge to votes. He argues that the government’s efforts to intimidate voters failed to affect the election.
• Garrison Davis says Mary Peltola led Alaska’s Senate race by 600 votes with 25% still uncounted, while Scott Colom led Mississippi’s race by fewer than 2,000 votes with more than 40,000 ballots outstanding. Mia Wong notes that Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith had blocked Colom’s judicial nomination.
• Garrison Davis says DSA’s federal bloc has grown to eight members, including Rashida Tlaib, AOC, Donovan McKinney, Chris Rabb, Milat Kiros, Angela Gonzalez-Torres, Daria Elisa Villachavier, and Claire Valdez. At least 93 DSA candidates also won federal, state, or municipal office.
• Garrison Davis says DSA-endorsed Nithya Raman won Los Angeles’s mayoral race by three points. The DSA national committee voted 14-13 against forcing the local chapter to withdraw its endorsement amid disputes over Raman’s support for BDS.
• Garrison Davis says Justin Pearson lost Tennessee’s House race by fewer than 3,000 votes, while William Lawrence won Michigan’s 7th District despite more than $20 million in Republican spending. Mia Wong highlights Alison Montgomery’s 22-point swing to win an Alabama district Trump had carried by 16 points.
• Mia Wong says Republicans mistook 2024 anti-incumbent votes for lasting loyalty to Trump, while J.D. Vance blamed losses on war, living costs, inflation, America First, and Israel policy. Republicans also faulted Trump’s friendly meeting with Mamdani, and Trump promised on Election Day to end $4 billion in Israel aid by year’s end.

Iran (8)

• Vladimir Van Wilgenberg says Iranian Kurdish opposition parties have operated from Iraqi Kurdistan since their defeat after the 1979 revolution, leaving them exposed to Iranian strikes and pressure to leave Iraq.
• Vladimir Van Wilgenberg says PJAK has clashed with Iran near its Iraqi Kurdistan bases and has drone experience through links with the PKK and SDF; the Turkey-PKK peace process leaves PJAK’s future unsettled.
• Vladimir Van Wilgenberg says Kurdish unrest in Iran predates the current conflict, including the Jina Amini protests; Kurdish participation has varied, and Iranian crackdowns have repeatedly followed protest waves.
• Vladimir Van Wilgenberg says Iranian opposition groups remain fragmented, with no broad alliance comparable to the Iraqi opposition before Saddam Hussein’s removal; exile and neighboring states’ resistance make coordination harder.
• Vladimir Van Wilgenberg says Iraqi Kurdish leaders and Turkey opposed Iranian Kurdish incursions into Iran, fearing retaliation or a new Kurdish autonomous region; Kurdish parties in Iraq sent forces to the border to prevent an attack.
• Vladimir Van Wilgenberg argues that airstrikes alone are unlikely to topple Iran’s government, and that insurgency would need local territorial control or a major uprising to force meaningful concessions.
• Vladimir Van Wilgenberg says Iran wants Iranian Kurdish groups removed from Iraqi Kurdistan, but any relocation or peace deal would need to address multiple factions and Kurdish opposition to forced surrender.
• James Stout says the United States called a strike on Iranian air defenses defensive, while Donald Trump said the defenses were rebuilt and then destroyed. Iran later claimed its 358 loitering munition downed an MQ-9 Reaper over the Strait of Hormuz.

Media (1)

• Vladimir Van Wilgenberg says inaccurate U.S. reporting that Iraqi Kurds were preparing to invade Iran made the region a more likely target; Kurdish leaders later said forces had gone to the border to seal it.

AI Infrastructure (1)

• The panel says most local ballot measures concerning data centers failed, indicating strong opposition even in Ohio, a state described as especially business-friendly.

VC (1)

• Robert Evans says AI and crypto interests spent heavily on the midterms but lost many of their targeted races, including a major effort to defeat Sherrod Brown in Ohio.

Regulation (1)

• Garrison Davis reports that Zohran Mamdani canceled New York City’s planned $225 million public safety academy in Queens. A state appeals court also cleared his tax on second homes worth millions of dollars to proceed.

Labor (3)

• Garrison Davis reports that dockworkers struck across 22 countries and more than 100 ports to protest arms shipments. James Stout says European dockworkers have organized similar actions for years, especially in Italy, Greece, and France.
• Mia Wong says nearly one million Bangladeshi garment workers went on strike or could not work, closing 500 of 2,500 factories. Workers sought a monthly minimum wage increase from $100 to $250; the sector employs four million people, many working 50-to-60-hour weeks.
• Mia Wong reports that a French general strike coincided with student protests, with estimates of 600,000 people in the streets and unions claiming 1.3 million. She says Macron sought to require protests to be backed by unions or NGOs, a measure that could channel unrest into negotiable, less disruptive forms.

War (1)

• James Stout reports that four Russian drone operators are deployed long-term with Myanmar’s armed forces in southern Shan State. He says the Tatmadaw has improved its drone use with Russian and Chinese technology, and calls for more international solidarity with Myanmar’s resistance.

Corruption (1)

• Mia Wong describes a House Judiciary Committee report alleging that Donald Trump abused, assaulted, or raped women in connection with Jeffrey Epstein and that the administration obstructed scrutiny of the Epstein files. The report cites accounts from 11 women and calls for an independent counsel.

Banking (1)

• Mia Wong reports that Paraguay’s central bank seized Unil Bank after finding it far below reserve requirements, with loans to bank owners’ associates and misleading accounts. The failure blocked access to money for a bank used by 60% of the population, triggering protests and President Santiago Peña’s resignation.