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Iran war puts Strait of Hormuz shipping at risk

Nov 13, 2026Summary from 6 podcasts.
  • A U.S. strike and Iran’s drone claim underscore the danger to shipping through Hormuz.
  • Tehran’s conditional offer leaves a diplomatic opening, but gasoline and shipping costs remain exposed.
  • Hosts disagree on whether the war reflects a miscalculation or a wider shift in power.

The Strait of Hormuz has become both a military flashpoint and a test of whether diplomacy can halt the war. The narrow waterway between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula is a key shipping route, and Iran’s foreign minister has warned of more retaliation even as he keeps open a two-day proposal for the United States to end the war on all fronts.

On Behind the Bastards, James Stout said Washington called a strike on Iranian air defenses defensive; Donald Trump said the defenses had been rebuilt and then destroyed. Iran later claimed its 358 loitering munition had shot down a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper over the strait. That claim was not independently confirmed in the show’s account.

There are calls to keep the route open. Marty Bent, on TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast, said China and Oman had called for safe navigation. But the diplomatic path remains uncertain: Saagar Enjeti said gasoline had fallen below $4 a gallon on hopes of a deal, while Krystal Ball warned it could climb again if talks fail. She said Trump could find it politically difficult to accept terms that critics might portray as retreat.

The economic strain is already reaching the Gulf. Mario Nawfal said tanker passage costs had risen to around 30 times their usual level, and cited an 8% contraction in Qatar’s economy and attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure. Simon Dixon countered that alternative oil routes were operating. He also cited a 36% rise in Saudi Aramco profits, but Nawfal said that figure predated later Houthi attacks and argued Saudi Arabia had shifted from surplus toward deficit.

The hosts offer sharply different explanations for what the conflict means. John Perkins, on BTC Sessions, called the decision to target Iran’s leadership reckless, arguing the administration underestimated the threat to shipping and oil supplies.

Dixon sees the crisis as part of a broader shift away from U.S. influence and toward a more multipolar order. On Simon Dixon Hard Talk, he said Gulf states were reassessing their reliance on U.S. bases; Nawfal stressed that the region is bearing the costs of a war it did not want.

The effects may last beyond the immediate price shock. Oliver Morton of The Economist said higher oil and liquefied natural gas prices linked to the war have reduced fossil-fuel use. He argued that switching to electric cars can make that reduction stick, because drivers who switch no longer need to buy oil even if prices later fall. For now, the fragile talks and the safety of shipping through Hormuz remain closely tied.

Source Intelligence

- Deep dive into what was said in the episodes

The Petrodollar, Tech Giants & Debt: Who Really Benefits from the Iran War? | Simon Dixon & Mario Nawfal • Nov 12

  • Simon Dixon describes the Gulf's move toward China and other partners as a hedge against dependence on Washington: he cited a 70/30 petrodollar-to-petroyuan split, Saudi Arabia as a BRICS observer, and Iran and the UAE as BRICS members.
  • Simon Dixon sees the Strait of Hormuz crisis as a Suez-style marker of declining US influence, following China-brokered Iran-Saudi normalization and the October 7 attacks; he says regional states are reconsidering US bases and a proposed Mecca pact.
  • Mario Nawfal argues that Gulf economies are bearing serious war costs, citing attacks on Saudi pipelines and refineries, tanker passage costs around 30 times higher, and Qatar’s shrinking economy; Simon Dixon counters that alternative oil routes are operating.
  • Simon Dixon says Saudi Aramco reported record profits despite the crisis, while Mario Nawfal stresses that the figure predates later Houthi attacks and says Saudi Arabia has moved from surplus toward deficit.
  • Simon Dixon says Saudi Arabia had negotiated a $53 billion loan before the war, structured in $8 billion tranches; Mario Nawfal’s broader concern is that Gulf financial distress could push states toward China and away from US-linked markets.
  • Simon Dixon argues Trump is a public-facing representative rather than the decision-maker on escalation, which he attributes to the military-industrial complex; he predicts US retrenchment, a negotiated settlement, and no world war, while admitting he misjudged the timing.
Also discussed on this episode: (10)

Media (1)

  • Simon Dixon treats media coverage as propaganda shaped by its funders, and reads headlines as signals of what a power faction wants believed rather than as established facts.

Banking (3)

  • Simon Dixon traces the petrodollar system from the 1971 end of dollar convertibility to the 1974 oil-for-dollar arrangement: Gulf oil revenue recycled into US debt and military purchases helped sustain American power.
  • Simon Dixon calls the UAE’s Federal Reserve currency swap line a privilege rather than a bailout, saying it provides dollar liquidity to support the dirham peg and can reduce pressure to sell US Treasuries; he says forced Treasury sales would raise yields and benefit bond buyers.
  • Simon Dixon says the dollar’s wartime strengthening eased pressure on Gulf currency pegs, while earlier weakness had forced reserve defense; he also describes mBridge as a central-bank digital currency network that could bypass SWIFT.

Energy (2)

  • Simon Dixon says US fracking turned America from an energy importer into an exporter, while China became the main energy buyer for Iran and Gulf producers; he says Iran sold China 90% of its oil.
  • Simon Dixon links UAE’s departure from OPEC, Gulf digital-currency links, and the dollar’s rebound to a broader redesign of energy and payment arrangements; he argues powerful financial and intelligence networks use wars to accelerate those shifts without controlling every outcome.

Big Tech (1)

  • Simon Dixon argues that Trump’s donors and corporate backers gained from the administration: he links Elon Musk and technology firms to Stargate and government data access, and the Mellon banking family to financial interests positioned for a multipolar order.

War (1)

  • Simon Dixon connects Trump-aligned political networks to military privatization and Gulf capital, citing Miriam Adelson, Jared Kushner’s Affinity fund, and investments linked to Israeli military firms and the Phoenix pension business.

Israel (1)

  • Simon Dixon says the war damaged Israel as a state through higher debt and reputational isolation while private defense and technology firms benefited; he names Palantir, Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics, and Raytheon as beneficiaries.

BTC Markets (1)

  • Simon Dixon says Trump’s crypto relationships, including World Liberty Financial and the Binance episode, connect to UAE-linked interests; he also places the conflict alongside US actions in Venezuela and the Russia-Ukraine war.

Economic Hitman Exposes The Playbook Being Run On The World Right Now | Dixon & Perkins • Nov 12

  • Dixon describes Iran as a test of the financial-industrial complex’s power: he links the 1971 end of the gold standard to the petrodollar system, and argues that the Strait of Hormuz crisis and rising yields expose pressure on that order. Perkins says the strike on Iran’s leadership ignored the Strait’s leverage over oil supplies.
Also discussed on this episode: (14)

Corruption (3)

  • John Perkins says economic hitmen still use debt to secure cheap access to resources, influence countries’ votes and military policy, and weaken social and environmental protections. He says corporations now run similar campaigns to win tax, labor, and land concessions from governments.
  • Perkins says Epstein’s network may have enabled blackmail, but stresses that the connection remains unproven. Dixon says bank records from Deutsche Bank and JPMorgan Chase could clarify the case, and argues that wars in Ukraine and elsewhere enrich contractors, creditors, and asset managers.
  • Perkins says corporations and politicians share power through a revolving door, citing Robert McNamara’s moves among Ford, the U.S. Defense Department, and the World Bank. He says business leaders compete for profits but unite against taxes and regulation that threaten their shared interests.

China (1)

  • Perkins says China adapted the economic-hitman playbook without building a comparable overseas military presence, and used trade and its development story to gain influence. He says China became the leading trade partner in 75% of countries, after the United States held that position around 2000-2001.

Banking (1)

  • Simon Dixon says investment banks continue the pressure after sovereign debt deals: they securitize companies, load them with debt, install boards, and manipulate share prices. He says founders with enough leverage can negotiate supermajority voting rights to limit outside control.

Iran (1)

  • Dixon argues that Trump’s Iran policy serves financial interests hedging for a multipolar world, while Perkins says the move may have followed the high of removing Venezuela’s leader. Perkins says Venezuela lacked Iran’s control over a critical shipping route, making the comparison strategically flawed.

Europe (2)

  • Perkins says Greenland would be harder to justify than Venezuela and that the United States already has military bases there. Dixon argues that threats around Greenland can still produce defense, technology, surveillance, and reconstruction contracts without a war.
  • Dixon says Norway benefits from Europe’s energy dependence and increased NATO spending, while BlackRock and other financial interests benefit from debt and reconstruction. He alleges that energy disruptions and political operations have weakened Europe’s manufacturing base and subordinated national economies.

Big Tech (1)

  • Dixon says Nvidia is unusually vulnerable to a corporate takeover because its CEO holds only 2-3% of shares and lacks superior voting rights. He contrasts that with Elon Musk’s claimed 89% voting control of SpaceX and Tesla, and says the espionage story could also draw attention to a possible leadership change.

Protocol (1)

  • Dixon says his efforts to create a non-fractional-reserve bank and a Bitcoin-backed bond met regulatory resistance, including pressure through the IMF. He says people joined a private meeting in El Salvador and played a recording, leaving him and his wife intimidated; Perkins says threats are used to deter challenges to the dollar.

Nation-State (1)

  • Perkins describes the dollar, English, and military strength as pillars of U.S. empire, and says leaders resist alternatives to the dollar. He says China has benefited from its trading position but has reasons to avoid destabilizing the dollar because it holds dollar-denominated debt.

Digital Sovereignty (1)

  • Dixon argues that Bitcoin, stablecoins, central-bank digital currencies, AI, and military technology are being folded into centralized financial and surveillance systems. He says control of private keys, data, and local technology is a form of resistance, especially as AI and military supply chains rely on China’s manufacturing base.

AI Infrastructure (1)

  • Perkins compares AI to a machete whose effects depend on who controls it, and argues that public regulation should prevent the technology from serving only oligarchs. He says people should resist fatalism and recognize their own capacity to change outcomes; Dixon urges people to prioritize family, community, and life beyond their devices.

Society (1)

  • Perkins calls the current moment a consciousness revolution and says public resistance can shape political reality, while warning that oligarchies push back against challenges. His proposed direction is a shift from a death economy to a life economy, with individuals pursuing work aligned with their skills and goals.

Abate and switch: how China’s emissions fell • Nov 12

  • Morton says higher oil and liquefied natural gas prices linked to the Israel-US-Iran war have reduced fossil-fuel use. Electric-car purchases can lock in that reduction: unlike driving less, switching to an EV prevents future oil use even if prices fall.
Also discussed on this episode: (16)

China (6)

  • Oliver Morton says China emitted around 12 billion tonnes of CO2 last year, roughly one-third of global emissions and more than twice the US total. Chinese emissions rose almost every year for four decades, apart from a dip during COVID.
  • Oliver Morton cites the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air's finding that Chinese CO2 emissions fell 3.1% year on year in the third quarter of 2026, the steepest drop since COVID lockdowns began. He expects the full-year decline to be smaller.
  • Morton attributes part of the emissions drop to mild weather, but says structural changes matter more: electric vehicles now make up well over half of cars sold, while renewable and nuclear generation are growing faster than electricity demand.
  • China's construction boom has ended, reducing demand for cement and steel, which produce substantial CO2. Morton says industrial electrification is underway, but is not yet large enough to explain the emissions decline.
  • Morton says China's clean-energy shift is driven mainly by business and energy security, not climate policy: replacing imported-oil vehicles with electric ones and building exportable renewable-energy capacity serve China's interests. He argues climate policy should use this momentum to push further electrification.
  • Chinese solar equipment and batteries can give consumers cheaper, more dependable electricity, including in Pakistan and Zimbabwe, Morton says. Some countries have security concerns about embedded software, but solar can outperform unreliable grids and diesel generators where access to power is limited.

Climate (1)

  • Morton says other countries can follow China's electrification path by expanding EV use and solar power; batteries make solar more useful, and this applies even to countries that rely on coal. The Global Carbon Budget Consortium's preliminary figures suggest global CO2 emissions may fall slightly by year-end.

Elections (1)

  • Sarah Burke describes Nayib Bukele's security record in El Salvador as popular but built on mass arrests, often on flimsy evidence, and a mega-prison where detainees disappear. The crackdown sharply reduced the murder rate and earned Bukele domestic and foreign praise.

Nation-State (1)

  • Bukele sent about 2,000 Salvadoran soldiers to Haiti after four Salvadoran aviation technicians serving with a UN-backed force disappeared. Burke says the deployment also fits Bukele's ambition to gain international standing ahead of a February re-election contest.

War (4)

  • Haiti's crisis followed President Jovenel Moïse's 2021 assassination, with gangs controlling parts of the capital. Burke reports at least 16,000 deaths, 1.5 million displaced people, and 12 million people facing acute hunger; she says this desperation makes outside intervention appealing.
  • Burke says Bukele's troops reportedly destroyed the headquarters of 400 Mawozo, Haiti's largest gang, in a joint Salvadoran-Haitian strike. Haiti's interim government approved the deployment, Donald Trump appeared to endorse it, and regional countries offered logistical support.
  • The Salvadoran deployment is the largest foreign-troop operation outside a UN mission in the Americas in years, Burke says. Haiti's UN-backed gang-suppression force includes six countries and was meant to field 5,500 troops but has only 2,000; Haitian police and soldiers, plus Eric Prince's contractors, are also present.
  • Burke warns that Bukele cannot simply apply El Salvador's crackdown to Haiti, and an ill-planned operation could escalate into a long war. The UN-backed force has engaged gangs cautiously; overlapping armed groups raise risks of confusion and human-rights abuses being wrongly attributed to the UN.

Biology (3)

  • Matt Kaplan says dogs readily catch yawns from people but rarely from other dogs, unlike elephants, chimpanzees, pigs, wolves, and parrots, which show contagion within their own species. He links the dog-human pattern to more than 30,000 years of breeding alongside humans.
  • Researchers from the University of Leipzig and La Sapienza University studied captive wolves in 15-minute sessions. Purebred wolves copied a witnessed yawn within two minutes 41% of the time, compared with 24% for wolves crossbred with dogs, suggesting dog genes reduce contagious yawning.
  • The study found that dominant wolves and close relatives did not trigger more yawning; socially connected wolves that interacted across the pack did. Kaplan contrasts this with chimpanzees and bonobos, where strong social bonds can drive contagious yawning, and warns that dog genes may disrupt broader wolf social behavior.

Ten31 Timestamp: Everything's Bigger in Texas • Nov 10

  • Marty Bent says China and Oman called for safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, while the guest notes that the conflict's outcome remains uncertain. The guest also flags a Polish dispute over whether central-bank gold should be placed under closer European Central Bank custody, and U.S. sanctions on Canadian businesses.
Also discussed on this episode: (14)

Elections (1)

  • The guest says the Democratic midterm gains will make it harder for Trump to advance his agenda through Congress, while leaving substantial executive power intact. The guest also describes Democratic-socialist influence in major cities and a Democratic Texas governorship as potentially consequential shifts.

Markets (2)

  • The guest says crowded AI positions amplified the post-election market selloff, with hedge funds cutting teams and strategies. Marty Bent cites a record single-day volume of put options, suggesting investors bought protection after volatility had already hit.
  • The guest warns that AI investment and Treasury-market health are increasingly linked: leveraged hedge funds buy long-dated government debt, but may pull back when volatility forces them to reduce positions. The weak Treasury bid during the equity selloff raised concern about that connection.

AI Infrastructure (3)

  • Texas data-center projects face uncertainty after Governor Hinojosa campaigned against them, although the guest estimates about half of planned capacity should proceed. Local resistance is broader: nearly every ballot measure restricting data-center development passed.
  • The guest argues that data-center construction could continue if developers pay for transmission, distribution, and substations rather than shifting costs to household ratepayers. Democrats could also frame the buildout as skilled-trades employment and use it to strengthen labor-union support.
  • AI-company valuations and fundraising expectations have come down even as demand for compute and model capabilities keep rising. The guest sees continuing economic utility in AI, while Marty Bent points to rising GPU-hour prices as evidence that compute demand remains strong.

Macro (2)

  • Marty Bent cites stronger-than-expected payrolls alongside falling oil prices, while equity markets recovered after the sharp selloff. The guest says the market's limited Treasury bid suggests investors may see AI-driven growth as important to tax receipts and the government's debt burden.
  • The guest argues that blocking data-center construction could weaken growth, tax receipts, and Treasury demand, pushing the United States closer to debt stress and renewed monetary debasement. That chain of risks makes a prolonged buildout stall a potential tailwind for hard assets.

Chips (1)

  • The guest treats the timing of reports about Jensen Huang's personal life as potentially strategic, not as established evidence of a plot. The guest speculates that a leak could increase pressure on Huang to align NVIDIA with U.S. national-security priorities after his opposition to tighter chip export controls.

Iran (1)

  • Marty Bent says J.D. Vance attributed the midterm shift toward Democrats partly to voter anger over the Iran war, its perceived connection to Israel, and higher energy costs. The guest cautions that voters may oppose losing wars more than war itself, and says Trump may have incentives to resist a quick withdrawal.

China (1)

  • The guest says geopolitical competition with China is unlikely to ease after the U.S. midterms: Chinese producers keep exporting chemicals despite losses, while automakers in the U.S. and Germany seek more protection from Chinese electric vehicles. A proposed U.S. vehicle ban had more than 100 House co-sponsors.

BTC Markets (3)

  • Bitcoin closed below its 50-week moving average after seven consecutive weekly closes above it. Alex Thorn's comparison with earlier post-bottom recoveries in 2011 and 2019 found that Bitcoin did not make a lower low after losing the average, though the guest says that pattern may not repeat.
  • The guest says AI investment has competed with Bitcoin for marginal capital, as investors favored high-growth technology stocks and expected AI-driven growth to ease debt concerns. If that growth disappoints, the guest argues, reduced competition for capital and renewed concern about sovereign debt could improve Bitcoin's appeal.
  • Marty Bent argues that commoditized AI tokens could still support Bitcoin if inference margins compress and investment shifts away from the labs. The guest adds that rapid automation could disrupt workers with mortgages and student debt, potentially increasing pressure for a new debasement policy or universal income.

11/9/26: Trump Knifes JD Vance Over Iran, Saagar Blasts MAHA Freakout Over Calley Means On Rogan, Hegseth Impeachment Looms • Nov 9

  • Iran’s foreign minister said a two-day proposal remained available if the United States ended the war on all fronts, while warning of further retaliation. Saagar said gas had fallen below $4 a gallon on hopes of a deal; Krystal warned the price could rise again if diplomacy failed.
  • Krystal said Iran diplomacy remained fragile because Trump would have to accept a deal that could look like a retreat, while hawkish commentators pressed for escalation. She also noted Netanyahu’s political future was uncertain and said that could give him an incentive to resume conflict.
Also discussed on this episode: (14)

Iran (3)

  • Donald Trump acknowledged that voters disliked the Iran war and rising gas prices, then argued the war would be vindicated because it stopped Iran getting a nuclear weapon. Krystal countered that Iran may now be closer to a weapon and that Trump abandoned the JCPOA, which Iran had been following.
  • Donald Trump publicly said JD Vance was right to question the Iran decisions, then faulted Vance for not saying Trump should make the same choice again. Saagar read the exchange as a warning about Vance’s prospects as a future Republican leader.
  • Donald Trump said Pete Hegseth could stay, crediting him as part of victories in Iran and Venezuela. Krystal and Saagar expected Hegseth to be safe because firing him would undermine Trump’s claim that the Iran war was a success and replacement confirmation would be difficult.

Elections (3)

  • Saagar argued the Iran war helped Democrats win in South Carolina, Mississippi, and Kansas, while Krystal said immigration enforcement also hurt Republicans in Texas. Saagar said James Talarico won Texas by 12 points, including without its most populous counties; Annie Andrews won South Carolina by five points.
  • Saagar said Stephen Miller’s appointment was driven partly by Trump’s fear of investigations after Democrats gained Senate seats. Saagar described Miller as experienced in executive power and legal defense, citing America First Action, which prepared to defend Trump and MAGA allies against investigations.
  • Krystal said Republicans face a harsher political calculation after the midterms: they must now worry about general-election losses as well as Trump-backed primary challenges. She said the 2028 Senate map favors Democrats and makes a Senate supermajority easier to imagine than it had been before this cycle.

Immigration (1)

  • Donald Trump floated a possible immigration deal for long-term workers facing deportation, but Krystal doubted he would follow through. She argued that elevating Stephen Miller to chief of staff mattered more than Trump’s conciliatory interview, given Miller’s influence over immigration policy.

Corruption (3)

  • Donald Trump rejected Ross Douthat’s claim that his net worth rose by $3 billion, saying he did not track his wealth and had long held substantial cash. Krystal called Trump’s defense of his crypto holdings and foreign-government ties corrupt, not comparable to earlier presidents’ assets.
  • Calley Means accused Susie Wiles of benefiting from lobbying ties and said her daughter’s firm gained White House access. Means said Continental Strategies’ revenue rose to about $30 million a year, while Ballard Partners became the highest-revenue lobbying firm in history.
  • Saagar and Krystal rejected Calley Means’s claim that Trump was kept uninformed and treated like a baby, arguing Trump had agency and knew about choices such as glyphosate policy. They said Trump used MAHA to win votes but did not prioritize its goals over corporate interests.

Media (1)

  • Donald Trump announced Dana White as a possible press secretary, then said the offer was a joke; White declined the job. Krystal thought the mix-up may have begun with a recommendation of Dana W. White, a Defense Department public-affairs official.

Health (1)

  • The hosts cited fruit-flavored vapes, kratom, glyphosate, cannabis, and ultra-processed food as examples of conflicts between MAHA goals and administration choices. Saagar argued food restrictions could raise prices; Krystal said stronger school-food standards would face a fight from companies profiting from school sales.

War (1)

  • Thomas Massie’s Hegseth impeachment resolution could attract Republican defections, including from lawmakers who lost elections and blame the Iran war. Hakeem Jeffries said he would vote yes; Don Bacon and French Hill were undecided, and Hill said the commander in chief bears responsibility for war strategy.

Diplomacy (1)

  • The Emir of Qatar was in Washington to meet Donald Trump and JD Vance, underscoring Qatar’s role as a diplomatic channel in the Iran conflict. Krystal said Gadi Eisenkot had been asked to try to form an Israeli government, but failure could leave Netanyahu as caretaker prime minister before another election.

It Could Happen Here Weekly 257 • Nov 7

  • James Stout says the United States called a strike on Iranian air defenses defensive, while Donald Trump said the defenses were rebuilt and then destroyed. Iran later claimed its 358 loitering munition downed an MQ-9 Reaper over the Strait of Hormuz.
Also discussed on this episode: (56)

Elections (37)

  • Caio Almendra describes Brazil’s first-round results as a crisis for the left: Bolsonarismo expanded its congressional bench, and Flávio Bolsonaro’s platform threatened deep cuts, political reprisals, and harsher criminal penalties.
  • Caio Almendra says Lula’s campaign moved to ban online sports betting just before the first round, a popular proposal aimed at a country where gambling addiction affects millions.
  • Caio Almendra argues that fear alone could not revive the campaign; student marches, viral creator content, and visible street organizing helped turn despair into shared hope and participation.
  • Caio Almendra says Flávio Bolsonaro’s public image was vulnerable to alleged links among banker Daniel Vorcaro, a betting platform, a megachurch, and political donors, while mainstream coverage largely ignored the story.
  • Caio Almendra says Flávio Bolsonaro’s circle proposed ending Bolsa Família, freezing wages, and resisting shorter workweeks, while an allied pastor’s anti-Catholic attacks risked alienating Brazil’s Catholic majority.
  • Caio Almendra presents André Janones as an unconventional online campaign organizer whose WhatsApp channel gave Lula supporters daily marching orders and grew far beyond its original target.
  • Caio Almendra says Janones’s network countered far-right message repetition by circulating the same content widely, blocking hostile accounts, and using curiosity-driven teasers to disrupt online narratives.
  • Caio Almendra credits Janones with channeling popular mobilization, but notes that Erika Hilton built a comparable organizing network; the campaign’s scale came from collective energy, not one strategist alone.
  • Danielle Lee Thompson says election researchers use “rumor” for uncertain claims whose truth and intent are not yet established; misinformation is false or misleading without proven intent, while disinformation is deliberately deceptive.
  • Stephen Prohaska says rigged-election rumors often mislead by distorting evidence, exaggerating the effect of real problems, ignoring remedies, or assigning malicious intent to routine errors.
  • Danielle Lee Thompson says election administration varies by jurisdiction, so unfamiliar procedures can look suspicious when they are routine; backup paper ballots and other safeguards can resolve many reported problems.
  • Danielle Lee Thompson says a president’s control of federal agencies and the rise of prediction markets have changed the rumor environment, while anxiety about federal interference has also increased rumor-sharing among left-leaning communities.
  • Danielle Lee Thompson says Trump offered a $1 million reward for reports of election fraud through fraud.gov, turning a public fraud-reporting portal into a high-profile invitation to search for evidence.
  • Stephen Prohaska says non-citizen voting claims are amplified through public arrests and ambiguous evidence despite being statistically rare; the Brennan Center study he cited found a negligible share of voters were non-citizens.
  • Stephen Prohaska describes election contestation as a three-stage process: convince audiences fraud is happening, collect purported evidence, then use that evidence in lawsuits and political messaging.
  • Garrison Davis reports a sweeping Democratic victory in the U.S. midterms, with Democrats projected to gain a large House majority and substantially expand their Senate advantage.
  • Garrison Davis highlights Democratic Senate wins in Michigan, Maine, North Carolina, South Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, and Kansas, including victories in states Trump had carried comfortably in 2024.
  • Garrison Davis says several Democratic candidates campaigned against attacks on trans people, while others adopted restrictive positions; the issue appeared across swing-state campaigns and ballot measures.
  • Stephen Monticelli says Texas Democrats made gains across statewide and rural races, while the results exposed political damage from Republican policies and candidates rather than a few isolated wins.
  • Stephen Monticelli says Texas Republicans’ hard-right primary politics did not translate into general-election support; Paxton’s corruption record, cost-of-living pressures, school vouchers, and anti-trans attacks all fed voter backlash.
  • Robert Evans says Dan Patrick helped build Texas Republicans’ legislative infrastructure and pushed restrictive abortion and school policies; Monticelli notes that opposition to hemp-derived cannabis rules also angered voters.
  • The panel reports Democratic gains in governorships and state legislatures, including five new state trifectas and advances in several chambers where Democrats still fell short of unified control.
  • Kevin Foster says Washington voters rejected repeal of the state’s millionaire tax but approved a measure requiring sex-at-birth documentation for school sports; the ACLU planned a legal challenge.
  • Garrison Davis says anti-trans ballot measures also passed in Arizona and Colorado, while Missouri voters rejected a bundled amendment that would have restricted abortion and gender-affirming care for minors.
  • Robert Evans says a Silicon Valley-backed effort to elect Pete Ricketts succeeded in Nebraska, while independent Dan Osborn’s labor-focused campaign ultimately lost.
  • James Stout says California voters appeared to reject a one-time billionaire wealth tax, while a separate measure extending higher income taxes on top earners looked likely to pass.
  • The panel says the election brought a sharp shift among younger voters, including young men, and that many young voters identified with democratic socialism.
  • Garrison Davis says Republican redistricting failed to deliver seats and instead angered voters, increased Black turnout, and spread Republican voters across districts that Democrats then won.
  • The panel reports strong Indigenous candidate results and turnout, including Deb Haaland’s New Mexico gubernatorial win and Peggy Flanagan’s Minnesota victory.
  • Kevin Foster says Portland’s DSA-backed city council candidates held their seats, while San Diego organizers began the process to recall Mayor Todd Gloria over homelessness, policing, and alleged real-estate conflicts.
  • Robert Evans argues that a new Democratic majority should investigate Trump administration officials and pursue consequences for DOGE, the Justice Department, and ICE, even if Congress faces limits while Trump remains president.
  • James Stout says the Supreme Court unanimously rejected the Justice Department’s request to segregate California ballots, denying a last effort to preserve a challenge to votes. He argues that the government’s efforts to intimidate voters failed to affect the election.
  • Garrison Davis says Mary Peltola led Alaska’s Senate race by 600 votes with 25% still uncounted, while Scott Colom led Mississippi’s race by fewer than 2,000 votes with more than 40,000 ballots outstanding. Mia Wong notes that Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith had blocked Colom’s judicial nomination.
  • Garrison Davis says DSA’s federal bloc has grown to eight members, including Rashida Tlaib, AOC, Donovan McKinney, Chris Rabb, Milat Kiros, Angela Gonzalez-Torres, Daria Elisa Villachavier, and Claire Valdez. At least 93 DSA candidates also won federal, state, or municipal office.
  • Garrison Davis says DSA-endorsed Nithya Raman won Los Angeles’s mayoral race by three points. The DSA national committee voted 14-13 against forcing the local chapter to withdraw its endorsement amid disputes over Raman’s support for BDS.
  • Garrison Davis says Justin Pearson lost Tennessee’s House race by fewer than 3,000 votes, while William Lawrence won Michigan’s 7th District despite more than $20 million in Republican spending. Mia Wong highlights Alison Montgomery’s 22-point swing to win an Alabama district Trump had carried by 16 points.
  • Mia Wong says Republicans mistook 2024 anti-incumbent votes for lasting loyalty to Trump, while J.D. Vance blamed losses on war, living costs, inflation, America First, and Israel policy. Republicans also faulted Trump’s friendly meeting with Mamdani, and Trump promised on Election Day to end $4 billion in Israel aid by year’s end.

Iran (7)

  • Vladimir Van Wilgenberg says Iranian Kurdish opposition parties have operated from Iraqi Kurdistan since their defeat after the 1979 revolution, leaving them exposed to Iranian strikes and pressure to leave Iraq.
  • Vladimir Van Wilgenberg says PJAK has clashed with Iran near its Iraqi Kurdistan bases and has drone experience through links with the PKK and SDF; the Turkey-PKK peace process leaves PJAK’s future unsettled.
  • Vladimir Van Wilgenberg says Kurdish unrest in Iran predates the current conflict, including the Jina Amini protests; Kurdish participation has varied, and Iranian crackdowns have repeatedly followed protest waves.
  • Vladimir Van Wilgenberg says Iranian opposition groups remain fragmented, with no broad alliance comparable to the Iraqi opposition before Saddam Hussein’s removal; exile and neighboring states’ resistance make coordination harder.
  • Vladimir Van Wilgenberg says Iraqi Kurdish leaders and Turkey opposed Iranian Kurdish incursions into Iran, fearing retaliation or a new Kurdish autonomous region; Kurdish parties in Iraq sent forces to the border to prevent an attack.
  • Vladimir Van Wilgenberg argues that airstrikes alone are unlikely to topple Iran’s government, and that insurgency would need local territorial control or a major uprising to force meaningful concessions.
  • Vladimir Van Wilgenberg says Iran wants Iranian Kurdish groups removed from Iraqi Kurdistan, but any relocation or peace deal would need to address multiple factions and Kurdish opposition to forced surrender.

Media (1)

  • Vladimir Van Wilgenberg says inaccurate U.S. reporting that Iraqi Kurds were preparing to invade Iran made the region a more likely target; Kurdish leaders later said forces had gone to the border to seal it.

AI Infrastructure (1)

  • The panel says most local ballot measures concerning data centers failed, indicating strong opposition even in Ohio, a state described as especially business-friendly.

VC (1)

  • Robert Evans says AI and crypto interests spent heavily on the midterms but lost many of their targeted races, including a major effort to defeat Sherrod Brown in Ohio.

Regulation (1)

  • Garrison Davis reports that Zohran Mamdani canceled New York City’s planned $225 million public safety academy in Queens. A state appeals court also cleared his tax on second homes worth millions of dollars to proceed.

Labor (3)

  • Garrison Davis reports that dockworkers struck across 22 countries and more than 100 ports to protest arms shipments. James Stout says European dockworkers have organized similar actions for years, especially in Italy, Greece, and France.
  • Mia Wong says nearly one million Bangladeshi garment workers went on strike or could not work, closing 500 of 2,500 factories. Workers sought a monthly minimum wage increase from $100 to $250; the sector employs four million people, many working 50-to-60-hour weeks.
  • Mia Wong reports that a French general strike coincided with student protests, with estimates of 600,000 people in the streets and unions claiming 1.3 million. She says Macron sought to require protests to be backed by unions or NGOs, a measure that could channel unrest into negotiable, less disruptive forms.

War (1)

  • James Stout reports that four Russian drone operators are deployed long-term with Myanmar’s armed forces in southern Shan State. He says the Tatmadaw has improved its drone use with Russian and Chinese technology, and calls for more international solidarity with Myanmar’s resistance.

Health (2)

  • Bernie Sanders renewed his push for Medicare for All, Peggy Flanagan vowed to dismantle ICE, Robert Garcia promised investigations, and Ron Wyden signaled subpoenas. Robert Evans argues Democrats should pursue accountability alongside affordability measures and worker power, including the PRO Act.
  • Ahmed El-Sayed argues that oversight should connect policy failures to immediate costs for households. He cited a Michigan cyclospora outbreak, saying 8,000 illnesses were reported and the CDC’s count lagged the state health department’s by 2,000 cases after DOGE cuts weakened the FDA.

Corruption (1)

  • Mia Wong describes a House Judiciary Committee report alleging that Donald Trump abused, assaulted, or raped women in connection with Jeffrey Epstein and that the administration obstructed scrutiny of the Epstein files. The report cites accounts from 11 women and calls for an independent counsel.

Banking (1)

  • Mia Wong reports that Paraguay’s central bank seized Unil Bank after finding it far below reserve requirements, with loans to bank owners’ associates and misleading accounts. The failure blocked access to money for a bank used by 60% of the population, triggering protests and President Santiago Peña’s resignation.