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Oil nears $120 as Hormuz closure hits global economy

Thursday, March 12, 2026 · from 6 podcasts, 9 episodes
The Tucker Carlson ShowPeter St Onge PodcastTFTC: A Bitcoin PodcastBreaking Points with Krys…Breaking Points with Krys…Breaking Points with Krys…Breaking Points with Krys…Forward GuidanceThe Jack Mallers Show
  • The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered the largest oil supply shock since the 1970s, with analysts warning prices must surge to $200 a barrel to destroy global demand.
  • The conflict is being weaponized economically, with China losing its discounted Iranian oil and the U.S. facing a bond market crisis as its traditional wartime safe haven fails.
  • Market volatility and official panic reflect a dangerous escalatory cycle with no clear off-ramp, threatening widespread energy shortages and systemic financial instability.

Oil markets are reeling from a historic shock. The Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for 20% of the world's petroleum, is effectively closed. According to analyst Rory Johnston on Breaking Points, this represents the largest disruption to global energy systems in at least 50 years.

Prices are spiking toward $120 a barrel, but Johnston argues this is just the beginning. To balance the loss of 20 million barrels per day, equivalent to peak pandemic demand destruction, prices must rise high enough to crush global consumption of jet fuel, diesel, and gasoline. He projects U.S. gas prices will head toward $6 a gallon, while poorer nations will face outright shortages and gas lines.

The crisis is already a form of economic warfare. Peter St Onge argues the U.S. strike on Iran was a strategic blow to China, which had been buying 90% of Iran's sanctioned oil at a steep discount. Removing that supply forces Beijing to outbid other nations for expensive Russian crude, exacerbating its economic crisis.

On the financial front, the traditional wartime playbook is breaking down. Jack Mallers notes that U.S. Treasury yields are rising, not falling, signaling a loss of creditor confidence just as the U.S. needs to finance massive deficits. Iran, he argues, is choosing to fight through oil price inflation, betting the fiscally strained U.S. cannot withstand the pressure.

The Trump administration's response has been marked by panic and conflicting signals. On Breaking Points, Krystal Ball highlighted the administration's desperation over oil prices, while Saagar Enjeti detailed how Trump's erratic statements have whipsawed markets. Behind the bravado, advisors are reportedly leaking concerns about political backlash and seeking an exit.

There is no easy off-ramp. Iran shows no sign of backing down after the assassination of its leader, and Trump has refused to rule out deploying ground troops. This escalatory cycle, as described on The Tucker Carlson Show with Colonel Douglas MacGregor, risks systemic collapse, threatening the petrodollar system and triggering a global economic catastrophe.

Rory Johnston, Breaking Points:

- I think the main thing the oil market is attempting to handicap is the duration of this disruption through the Strait of Hormuz and the broader attacks against infrastructure in the region.

- This is the largest scale disruption of energy systems at least since the 1970s, and potentially, if this goes on much longer, potentially the longest in history.

MarketsMacroEnergyWarTrade

Source Intelligence

What each podcast actually said

TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast
TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast

Ten31 Timestamp: To Rule the Waves • Mar 11

  • The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a choke point for 20% of global oil flow, represents a direct physical supply shock to the world economy, spiking oil prices toward $120 per barrel.
  • According to TFTC host Marty Bent, financial markets are mispricing the risk, treating the crisis as temporary despite confirmed attacks on key refineries and infrastructure across the Middle East.
  • Rising 10-year Treasury yields alongside oil prices signal a market expectation that sustained high energy costs will feed directly into inflation, complicating the US government's existing debt burden.
  • Marty Bent pointed out that in 2022, mere fear of attacks on Russian infrastructure sent oil above $130, implying the current market reaction to actual attacks in the primary oil-producing region is understated.
  • TFTC host John noted that futures markets imply a belief the crisis will reverse soon, a view that bets on either a rapid Iranian collapse or political intervention to suppress prices ahead of US elections.
  • The hosts argued the conflict directly pressures China, which sources 45% of its oil through the Strait of Hormuz, and if the disruption is structural it will trigger global economic domino effects.
  • The broader thesis from TFTC is that this event is the latest example of geopolitics and the physical world reasserting control over a financialized global system.
MacroMarketsEnergy
Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

3/10/26: Trump Threatens 'Fury' On Iran, Israel Panics, Iran Rejects Ceasefire • Mar 10

  • Donald Trump sent conflicting public signals about the Iran war to manipulate financial markets, according to Breaking Points.
  • Trump told a reporter the war was 'very complete' near market close, boosting the S&P 500 and lowering oil prices.
  • Later, Trump threatened Iran with 'fire and fury' and said it would be hit '20 times harder', causing market volatility.
  • Trump's aggressive public threats starkly contrasted with his advisors' private desire for an exit strategy, revealing internal panic.
  • Behind the scenes, Trump advisors reportedly leaked concerns about political backlash and depleting support for a prolonged war.
  • The advisors encouraged Trump to articulate an exit strategy, highlighting the administration's struggle to control the conflict narrative.
  • Saagar Enjeti argued that once in an escalatory cycle, it's not easy to simply declare victory and walk away.
  • The conflict escalated with a strike on an oil refinery in the UAE and multiple other targets across the region.
  • High oil prices prompted G7 nations to consider releasing strategic petroleum reserves to mitigate economic damage.
  • Iran rejected calls for a ceasefire, with officials telling Trump to 'be careful not to get eliminated yourself'.
  • This hostile rhetoric from Iran, following the assassination of a previous leader, suggests the country is far from backing down.
  • The analysis concludes the US is trapped in a dangerous escalatory cycle with Iran, making a clean off-ramp difficult.
WarMiddle EastTrade

3/10/26: US Scrambles On Depleting Munitions, Trump Begs Ships To Cross Strait Of Hormuz, Epstein Prison Guard Cash Deposit • Mar 10

  • The oil market is experiencing dramatic price swings above and below $100 a barrel.
  • Krystal Ball stated the administration is panicking over the price of oil.
  • Trump urged ships to traverse the Strait of Hormuz unapologetically, which is seen as dismissing real risks.
  • Iranian missile capabilities pose a real risk to ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
  • The insurance industry is hesitant to cover voyages through the Strait of Hormuz amid rising geopolitical tensions.
  • U.S. gas prices surged from around $2.92 a month ago to approximately $3.54 today.
  • The administration's emergency measures to release oil reserves are a temporary solution at best.
  • Analysts predict the oil price surge could lead to energy shortages and significant demand destruction in many developing nations.
  • Countries like Bangladesh and Pakistan are already facing power outages as energy supplies dwindle.
  • Gas constraints in places like Bangalore could prevent hotels like Marriott and Hilton from serving breakfast.
  • Krystal Ball called it disgusting and preposterous to urge sacrifices for a war that people do not want.
  • Analysts note that the Iranian regime may not be inclined to allow a U.S. resurgence, opting for long-term economic warfare.
  • The Iranian state sees economic pressure as a strategic weapon to destabilize American markets.
  • The interdependence of global economies means a contraction in Gulf states could send ripples through the U.S. market.
  • If major investors from Gulf regions pull back, the U.S. could face a wave of sector disruptions.
  • Shaky job numbers in sectors reliant on affordable energy suggest a looming economic crisis.
MarketsEnergyWarMacro

3/9/26: Oil Apocalypse, New Ayatollah Chosen, Jeff Sachs Dire Warning, Lindsey Graham Coached Bibi On Convincing Trump • Mar 9

  • The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused a supply shock of 20 million barrels per day, matching the demand destruction seen at the peak of COVID lockdowns in March and April 2020.
  • Oil analyst Rory Johnston argues that oil prices must rise to over $200 per barrel to force global demand destruction sufficient to balance the supply loss.
  • Johnston says the oil market's primary concern is determining the duration of the Strait of Hormuz closure, which will dictate the scale and persistence of the crisis.
  • According to Johnston, Donald Trump framing the crisis as a short-term 'Iran nuclear threat' in a social post sends a dangerous signal, suggesting leadership believes the conflict can be managed long-term, potentially extending the closure.
  • The crisis will hit refined products first, with diesel and jet fuel facing immediate shortages. Asian jet fuel prices have already spiked to levels equivalent to over $200 per barrel.
  • Refineries in Asia, fearful of feedstock loss, have preemptively cut operations from 90% to 65% of capacity, instantly reducing supplies of diesel and jet fuel globally.
  • Johnston projects gasoline prices in the U.S. will breach $4 per gallon and head toward $6, while developing nations will face outright shortages and gas lines due to unaffordable imports.
  • The physical disruption means the full crude supply loss won't hit global refining for another month or two as pre-loaded tankers sail, but downstream market panic and the required demand destruction are already underway.
MarketsEnergyFedMacro

3/9/26: Trump Doesn't Rule Out War Draft, Fox Coverup On Trump Fallen Soldier Disgrace, Desalination Plants Struck • Mar 9

  • President Trump refused to rule out deploying US ground troops to Iran, stating any deployment would need a very good reason.
  • Trump said the goal of a deployment would be to decimate Iranian forces to the point where maybe nobody is left to surrender.
  • Trump suggested the map of Iran would probably not look the same after the conflict.
  • Breaking Points host Saagar Enjeti argued this imperial framing transforms the war from an attack on a regime into an attack on the Iranian nation-state itself.
  • Enjeti said this framing gives Iranian propaganda a powerful rallying cry and ensures the population will fight to the death.
  • Host Krystal Ball noted another American service member was confirmed killed.
  • Ball stated it is now incontrovertible that a US Tomahawk missile struck a girls' school in a double-tap strike, killing 168 children.
  • Apocalyptic scenes of burning oil supplies in Tehran are creating a literal movie of a hellscape for civilians, according to Krystal Ball.
  • Regional actors like the Iraqi Kurds want no part of the conflict, remembering they were abandoned before.
  • The Iraqi Kurds are now within range of Iranian missiles, making their refusal to join any incursion a practical decision.
  • Saagar Enjeti summarized Trump's comments as completely all over the map, with the most noteworthy being not ruling out boots on the ground.
  • Enjeti concluded that at every turn, all Trump does is make the war even more existential for the people of Iran.
  • The stated US goal appears to be regime collapse and chaos in Iran.
  • Every escalatory comment and confirmed civilian strike makes regime collapse less likely and a wider, more devastating war more certain.
WarMiddle East
The Jack Mallers Show
The Jack Mallers Show

Oil, Bonds, and Bitcoin: The Rules Are That There Are No Rules • Mar 10

  • Iran is retaliating against US pressure by manipulating oil prices to trigger inflation, according to host Jack Mallers.
  • Mallers argues Iran believes the fiscally strained US, with its $40 trillion debt, cannot withstand another inflationary spike.
  • Iran's counterattack is economic, not nuclear, exploiting US debt burden and political intolerance for inflation.
  • Mallers states Iran is weaponizing energy prices by threatening to disrupt oil flows.
  • Iran is betting it can outlast the US in a protracted price war because Washington cannot afford it.
  • The bond market is failing as a traditional wartime safe haven, with yields rising instead of falling during current turmoil.
  • Mallers notes this yield inversion suggests foreign creditors are losing confidence in US credit.
  • The system depends on exporting dollars to finance imports, a circular game that cracks when trust evaporates.
  • Sunday night saw a massive spike in oil futures followed by a complete reversal, which Mallers interprets as evidence of fragility.
  • The S&P 500's first 5% correction since November adds to the picture of a perfect storm of war and financial stress.
  • Mallers sees war destabilizing the geopolitical order while financial stress exposes what he calls the monetary ponzi scheme.
  • Traditional wartime finance is breaking down, leaving the dollar system exposed to a new form of asymmetric warfare.
  • Host Jack Mallers stated, 'I think that Iran is choosing inflation over nuclear weapons.'
  • Mallers also said, 'Iran's fight back is through the oil price.'
MacroMarketsEnergy
The Tucker Carlson Show
The Tucker Carlson Show

Newest War Developments: AI Bombings, Advice to Trump, and the Nuclear Agenda to Reset the World • Mar 9

  • Colonel Douglas McGregor says the Strait of Hormuz is functionally closed by the conflict, threatening global oil markets and supply chains with a systemic shock.
  • McGregor warns the war-driven closure of the Strait of Hormuz directly risks the stability of the petrodollar system.
  • Colonel Douglas McGregor argues governments and media platforms have locked down casualty footage, creating a blackout on the war's effects for many Americans.
  • McGregor frames the war as driven by two competing belief systems: explicitly religious factions seeking apocalyptic ends, and secular planners envisioning a technological world reset.
  • Colonel Douglas McGregor says the primary lesson for nations watching the conflict is that any country without nuclear weapons now faces regime change, a dynamic that will accelerate global nuclear proliferation.
  • Tucker Carlson questions whether automated targeting or autonomous AI weapons contributed to civilian deaths, citing the bombing of a girls' school in Iran as an example.
  • McGregor acknowledges that while professional military targeting processes exist, political pressure from leadership can warp campaigns into strategy-free, destructive bombing.
  • As a solution, McGregor suggests reaching out to neutral, influential actors like Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to mediate, arguing the U.S. must act with honor to maintain credibility.
  • Colonel Douglas McGregor argues that lying during wartime destroys a nation's credibility abroad and at home, making future diplomacy impossible.
  • McGregor's final systemic warning is that continued escalation could drive economic catastrophe, domestic instability, and global realignments that permanently weaken American influence.
WarDiplomacyTradeMiddle East
Peter St Onge Podcast
Peter St Onge Podcast

Ep 163 Weekly Roundup: Iran, China, and the Petrodollar • Mar 9

  • Peter St Onge argues the U.S. strike on Iran's leadership was designed to cut off China's primary source of cheap, sanctioned oil, which was receiving 90% of Iran's exports.
  • Before the strike, Peter St Onge notes that 25% of China's oil imports came from Russia, Venezuela, and Iran, a share that had risen to 40% post-war, with half of that from Venezuela and Iran.
  • With Iran and Venezuela sanctioned off the dollar-based SWIFT system, Peter St Onge says China was buying their oil at a steep discount, building a crucial cheap energy buffer now lost.
  • Peter St Onge claims China must now compete globally for more expensive oil, outbidding others for the remaining half of Russian exports not already flowing its way, creating a severe cost shock.
  • Peter St Onge connects the moves against Iran and Venezuela to petrodollar defense, arguing that neutralizing the two largest non-dollar oil exporters reinforces the dollar's role as the global reserve currency.
  • Peter St Onge suggests U.S. policy may have pivoted from favoring a weak dollar for exports to needing a strong dollar to finance its own trillion-dollar deficits.
  • Peter St Onge calls the Trump EPA's repeal of the Obama-era CO2 endangerment finding the largest deregulation in history, estimating $1.3 trillion in direct savings.
  • Peter St Onge argues the EPA deregulation lowers energy costs, revives auto manufacturing, guts climate litigation, and could provide nearly $300 billion in annual growth benefits, aiding a domestic industrial renaissance.
  • Peter St Onge frames both the foreign energy shock and domestic deregulation as a concerted effort to reassert American economic primacy by strangling a rival's advantages and unshackling domestic industry.
WarTradeChinaEnergyRegulation
Forward Guidance
Forward Guidance

Is The Iran Energy Shock About To Break Markets? | Weekly Roundup • Mar 6

  • The Iran-Israel conflict is creating significant volatility in oil markets.
  • Market reactions reveal a lack of consensus on the severity and duration of the supply disruption.
  • Oil prices are experiencing acute stress and volatility not seen since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Extreme volatility is concentrated in front-month oil contracts, where speculation has ramped up.
  • Despite the headlines, oil is hovering just above $80, a price level lower than some might expect.
  • Speculative pressures from traders are heavily influencing current market performance.
  • Speculators are overwhelmingly focused on short-term, front-month contracts due to rapid geopolitical shifts.
  • Producers are hedging against future price uncertainties, adding complexity to the oil pricing curves.
  • A significant market divide exists between retail investors and institutional 'smart money'.
  • Retail investors remain optimistically bullish and are buying the dip even as charts decline.
  • Institutional money is reevaluating positions, pulling back from high-flying stocks and accepting mounting risks.
  • The speaker notes that all supply shocks start similarly, and the key question is the duration of the disruption.
  • According to the speaker, the market has not yet fully accepted how long the Iran-Israel crisis will last.
  • The core question for energy markets is how long the disruptions will last and what their ultimate shape will be.

Also from this episode:

Diplomacy (1)
  • This crisis represents a potential climax of decades of geopolitical decisions, according to the analysis.

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