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Iran conflict exposes US strategic failure in Strait of Hormuz

Tuesday, March 17, 2026 · from 7 podcasts, 16 episodes
No Agenda ShowBreaking Points with Krys…Breaking Points with Krys…Breaking Points with Krys…Pod Save AmericaBreaking Points with Krys…Breaking Points with Krys…The Tucker Carlson ShowThe Joe Rogan ExperienceBreaking Points with Krys…Breaking Points with Krys…Pod Save the WorldWhat Bitcoin DidThe Joe Rogan ExperienceBreaking Points with Krys…Breaking Points with Krys…
  • The US military, despite launching strikes, is refusing to escort tankers through the blockaded Strait of Hormuz, signaling a major failure of its security guarantee as allies negotiate directly with Iran.
  • Donald Trump's incoherent messaging, from declaring victory to threatening new strikes, reveals an administration with no clear objective trapped in an economic escalation it cannot win.
  • Iran's strategy focuses on inflicting global economic pain through oil price shocks and asymmetric attacks, betting US political will will break before its regime does.

The US Navy is standing down at the world's most important oil chokepoint. Despite bombing Iranian military targets and deploying Marines, the Pentagon has admitted it will not escort commercial tankers through the mined Strait of Hormuz. On Breaking Points, Pentagon spokesperson Pete Hegseth framed the inaction as deliberate 'shaping operations.' The refusal exposes a core vulnerability: American naval dominance can be deterred by modern missiles and drones.

This strategic failure forces a global realignment. Countries like India and France, with dwindling oil reserves, are now negotiating directly with Tehran for safe passage, bypassing Washington. Quincy Institute analyst Trita Parsi argues this grants Iran leverage it hasn't had in decades. He interprets Trump's recent plea for other nations to send warships as the 'desperation phase' of a failing strategy.

The administration's objectives remain a mystery. Pod Save World hosts noted that eleven days into the conflict, Trump's messaging swings from demanding unconditional surrender to declaring victory. Tommy Vietor said the goals are 'less clear now than when they started.' This incoherence stems from a political gamble, with advisers reportedly spooked by oil prices breaching $100 a barrel and panicking about midterm elections.

Iran's leadership sees the hesitation as weakness. The new Ayatollah's first public statement was a vow of vengeance. Analyst Robert Pape calls the US predicament an 'escalation trap,' where continued bombing hardens Iranian resolve instead of breaking it. Iran's retaliatory strikes on UAE oil facilities demonstrate its asymmetric strategy: wage economic warfare to crash Western stock markets and strain the global economy.

The financial stakes are immediate. Luke Gromen noted on What Bitcoin Did that US markets cannot tolerate sustained $100 oil. Each price spike acts like a blow to America's 'broken ribs.' The conflict has already triggered emergency G7 oil reserve releases and risks a COVID-scale demand destruction in developing nations. Markets are betting on a quick 'Trump taco' resolution, but Iran shows no sign of opening the strait.

Internal reporting suggests a White House in denial. Pod Save America's Dan Pfeiffer said aides are afraid to tell Trump the operation is failing because he keeps declaring it a success, operating in a hermetically sealed bubble of false information. With no off-ramp, a war entered without a plan risks becoming a self-inflicted global crisis.

Trita Parsi, Breaking Points:

- You're seeing the words of a man who actually has been defeated and who knows it.

- This is the desperation phase of this war at this point.

WarDiplomacyEnergyMiddle East

Entities Mentioned

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Source Intelligence

What each podcast actually said

No Agenda Show
No Agenda Show

1851 - "Mork & Mimi" • Mar 15

  • Adam Curry and Mimi Smith-Dvorak deconstructed war coverage, including a U.S. tanker crash in Iraq, rising oil prices, and the easing of Russian oil sanctions.
  • The No Agenda Show highlighted a supercut of politicians and pundits repetitively using the phrase 'short-term pain for long-term gain' to justify the conflict's economic and human costs.

Also from this episode:

Media (6)
  • A 1988 interview in which Donald Trump threatened to seize Iran's Karg Island, its primary oil export hub, has resurfaced in media coverage of the 2026 U.S.-Iran conflict.
  • Fox News host Brian Kilmeade confronted Trump with the decades-old threat on air, a clip analyzed by the No Agenda Show.
  • Trump dismissed Kilmeade's question as foolish, rhetorically asking what fool would answer whether he would still seize the island.
  • Trump pivoted from the Iran question to boasting about his prescient 2000 call to kill Osama bin Laden, which he claims was ignored until after 9/11.
  • The hosts critiqued media factual sloppiness with a segment on the misidentification of a historic California bar, the Hotsy Totsy Club.
  • Co-host John C. Dvorak is recovering from heart surgery; Adam Curry reported Dvorak sounded unusually upbeat during a hospital call and is expected to be released soon.
WarMediaElections
Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

3/14/26: TRUMP KNOWS HE’S DEFEATED! Begs Other Countries to Rescue US • Mar 14

  • Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute argues Trump is in a 'desperation phase' of the Iran conflict, where his contradictory rhetoric reveals a leader who knows the U.S. strategic objective of controlling the Strait of Hormuz has been defeated.
  • Parsi claims Iran holds decisive leverage because its operational control over the Strait of Hormuz has forced major economies like India and France to negotiate safe passage directly with Tehran, bypassing Washington.
  • According to Parsi, Iran's ability to dictate terms to global powers represents a significant shift, granting Tehran more leverage than it has had in decades, which it is unlikely to surrender without major concessions.
  • Trump's constrained military strikes, which hit Iranian military targets on Karg Island but spared its oil infrastructure, are interpreted by Parsi as a forced pullback and a clear sign of weakness to Tehran.
  • Parsi speculates Trump's restraint was likely due to internal warnings that escalating against Iran's oil infrastructure would trigger a 'suicidal' global economic contraction.
  • The economic shock from the conflict is already global, with Asian nations curtailing school and work days due to fuel shortages, a situation Parsi's colleague warns could escalate into a COVID-scale economic contraction.
  • Leaks from U.S. military officials to the Wall Street Journal, criticizing a president who ignored warnings Iran would close the strait, reveal an administration trying to distance itself from a failed strategy.
WarDiplomacyTradeMiddle East

3/14/26: BREAKING: TRUMP ATTACKS OIL ISLAND, MARINES CALLED IN, 5 US PLANES HIT • Mar 14

  • Trump bombed Iran's Carg Island terminal, which handles 90% of its oil exports, but intentionally spared the export infrastructure to create a leverage point over the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Saagar Enjeti says the strategic gamble avoids immediately removing a million barrels from the global market, giving Trump a lever to demand Iran opens the strait.
  • Iran retaliated by striking a major oil depot in the UAE, a direct move to drive up global oil prices through economic escalation.
  • Analyst Robert Pape describes Iran's asymmetric strategy as an escalation trap, designed to inflict economic pain through a prolonged conflict.
  • The conflict has already degraded US military assets, with five Air Force refueling planes damaged in an Iranian strike on a Saudi base.
  • The Pentagon is deploying over 2,000 Marines and considering sending destroyers to escort tankers, a major step analysts see as moving toward a potential ground invasion.
  • Saagar Enjeti argues the logic of escalation favors Iran, as each US military step is met with asymmetric countermeasures designed to strain the global economy and political will.
WarMiddle EastDiplomacyEnergy

3/13/26: US Plane Crash In Iraq, Michigan Attack, Munitions Deplete, Brad Lander Joins & MORE! • Mar 13

  • Pentagon spokesperson Pete Hegseth framed the U.S. Navy's refusal to escort commercial oil tankers through the blockaded Strait of Hormuz as a deliberate strategic choice, calling it 'shaping operations.'
  • Hegseth claimed the U.S. was executing 'the highest volume of strikes' over Iran while simultaneously boasting about an unfair fight against the Iranian military.
  • Hegseth described Iranian leaders as 'hiding like rats,' a characterization contradicted by footage aired on Breaking Points showing President Ebrahim Raisi marching unprotected through Tehran streets near an Israeli strike.
  • Commentator Ryan Grim argued the U.S. strategy of targeting leaders is a strategic blindness, as Iran has a deep, horizontal power structure with a pre-planned succession chain six or seven people deep.
  • Grim compared the U.S. focus on decapitation strikes to Iran assassinating a U.S. governor and declaring mission accomplished, suggesting the regime is far more resilient than the 'kill the bad guy' narrative allows.
  • The Pentagon's triumphalist rhetoric about strikes and shaping operations obscures the material failure of the world's most powerful navy ceding control of the critical global oil chokepoint at the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Krystal and Saagar analyzed that the 'shaping' appears primarily focused on shaping a public narrative of control and deliberate sequencing, rather than achieving a tangible strategic objective on the ground.
WarDiplomacyMiddle East

3/12/26: US Lies About Casualties, Trump Declares Victory, US Flagged Ship Struck • Mar 12

  • The Pentagon initially claimed only three US troops were killed and a handful seriously wounded in a recent Iranian drone strike, but new reports show dozens were hospitalized with brain trauma, burns, and shrapnel wounds, according to Saagar on Breaking Points.
  • Donald Trump declared the conflict over and a US victory on the campaign trail, calling the engagement a 'little excursion,' a stance directly contradicted by emerging evidence of escalating casualties and economic costs.
  • A surge in oil prices following the strike, despite a strategic reserve release, and attacks on more tankers including a US-flagged vessel signal the conflict's economic and military escalation is ongoing.
  • The discrepancy between initial casualty reports and the reality of urgent medical evacuations fits a pattern of downplaying the human cost of conflict at the outset to manage public perception, argue Krystal and Saagar.
  • Independent outlet Drop Site News won a UK court ruling that its article alleging pro-Israel bias in BBC coverage constituted 'honest opinion,' a defense that could end a lawsuit brought by a BBC editor.
  • Krystal and Saagar frame the early stages of the conflict as being fought on dual fronts: a military war with obscured casualties and a media war where adversarial reporting requires surviving legal threats.

Also from this episode:

Media (1)
  • Ryan Grim of Drop Site News credited over $250,000 in viewer and reader donations for enabling the legal defense against the BBC, which Krystal and Saagar cited as a critical reason to financially support independent media.
WarMediaCorruption

3/12/26: New Ayatollah Breaks Silence, Trump Escalation Trap, Iron Dome Failures, California FBI Warning • Mar 12

  • Iran's new Ayatollah Masoud Pezeshkian, in his first public statement delivered by a state media anchor, vowed vengeance against the US and Israel, called for Gulf states to expel American bases, and threatened to open new military fronts.
  • Political scientist Robert Pape describes the US as caught in an 'escalation trap' with Iran, where sustained military pressure hardens regime resolve and unifies nationalist resistance instead of coercing surrender.
  • Pape's historical research, spanning conflicts from World War I onward, finds bombing campaigns often fail to break a target's will, instead making regimes more resilient when they base their legitimacy on withstanding foreign aggression.
  • Pezeshkian's statement is a political maneuver that extends the conflict by demanding regional allies choose sides and explicitly ties Gulf state security to the removal of American forces.
  • Saagar Enjeti states the US is nowhere near a ceasefire with Iran, and the portrayal from Iranian leadership is markedly different from US assessments.
  • Domestic US political rhetoric, such as Donald Trump's comment that high oil prices are good for America, is criticized for ignoring the strategic quagmire deepening in the Middle East.
  • The war aims have diverged, with the US seeking a punitive demonstration of power to force capitulation, while Iran's leadership has adopted regime survival and vengeance as its foundational purpose.

Also from this episode:

Media (1)
  • Krystal Ball and Saagar Enjeti argue Pezeshkian's defiant rhetoric directly contradicts US political narratives that portray Iran as a hobbled and defeated adversary.
WarMiddle EastDiplomacy

3/11/26: Jake Tapper Crashes Out On Ryan, Americans Says War Is For Epstein & Israel, Bill Maher Praises Iran War • Mar 11

  • Ryan Grimm argues the distraction targets rising public opposition to a new U.S. war in the Middle East, which recent polling shows Americans widely reject.
  • Grimm cites statements from Republican senators Marco Rubio and Tom Cotton that the U.S. attacked Iran because Israel was about to as a catalyst for the need to redirect public anger.
  • The media coverage, led by Jewish Insider and amplified by CNN's Jake Tapper, frames the likes as celebrating the October 7th attacks, a characterization Grimm and Jashinsky dispute.
  • Grimm and Jashinsky note the actual posts referenced breaking the walls of apartheid and describing Israeli torture camps, sentiments they argue a broad public might share.
  • Ryan Grimm argues the underlying goal is to gin up distractive hatred towards Muslims to shift focus away from public rejection of a war seen as serving Israeli, not American, interests.

Also from this episode:

Media (1)
  • The story about New York Mayor Zoran Mamdani's wife liking pro-Palestinian Instagram posts from 2023 is a calculated media distraction, according to Breaking Points hosts Ryan Grimm and Emily Jashinsky.
Politics (1)
  • The scandal transforms a private citizen into a political target by focusing on who the spouse married, a standard of opposition research rarely applied symmetrically across the political spectrum.
WarMediaMiddle East

3/11/26: Trump Freaks Over Strait Of Hormuz, Mearsheimer Says US Losing War, Iran To Hit Israel Hard • Mar 11

  • Ryan Grim cited intelligence reports indicating Iran may be deploying mines in the Strait of Hormuz via smaller vessels, a tactic designed to raise the cost of transit for global shipping.
  • Senator Chris Murphy stated that the Trump administration had no plan for a foreseeable escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, and currently lacks a strategy to safely reopen the critical shipping lane.
  • Ryan Grim highlighted a surreal disconnect in the Trump administration's response to the Strait crisis, which has alternated between aggressive rhetoric and relying on commercial captains to 'man up' and sail through.
  • As Iran potentially mines the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. Navy was reportedly decommissioning aging minesweepers, according to discussion on Breaking Points.
  • Republican figures like Tom Cotton are suggesting the U.S. should simply declare victory and end the war, marking a shift in the political response to the conflict.
  • Ryan Grim noted that Democrats are criticizing the war vocally but are not taking concrete legislative steps to halt it, seemingly content to let the conflict damage their political opponents.
  • Exclusive polling from Breaking Points and Drop Site found a majority of Americans believe Trump was motivated, at least in part, to wage war to divert attention from the Jeffrey Epstein scandal.
WarDiplomacyElectionsChinaMiddle East

3/10/26: Trump Threatens 'Fury' On Iran, Israel Panics, Iran Rejects Ceasefire • Mar 10

  • Trump told a reporter the war was 'very complete' near market close, boosting the S&P 500 and lowering oil prices.
  • Later, Trump threatened Iran with 'fire and fury' and said it would be hit '20 times harder', causing market volatility.
  • Trump's aggressive public threats starkly contrasted with his advisors' private desire for an exit strategy, revealing internal panic.
  • Behind the scenes, Trump advisors reportedly leaked concerns about political backlash and depleting support for a prolonged war.
  • The advisors encouraged Trump to articulate an exit strategy, highlighting the administration's struggle to control the conflict narrative.
  • Saagar Enjeti argued that once in an escalatory cycle, it's not easy to simply declare victory and walk away.
  • The conflict escalated with a strike on an oil refinery in the UAE and multiple other targets across the region.
  • High oil prices prompted G7 nations to consider releasing strategic petroleum reserves to mitigate economic damage.
  • Iran rejected calls for a ceasefire, with officials telling Trump to 'be careful not to get eliminated yourself'.
  • This hostile rhetoric from Iran, following the assassination of a previous leader, suggests the country is far from backing down.
  • The analysis concludes the US is trapped in a dangerous escalatory cycle with Iran, making a clean off-ramp difficult.

Also from this episode:

Markets (1)
  • Donald Trump sent conflicting public signals about the Iran war to manipulate financial markets, according to Breaking Points.
WarMiddle EastTrade

3/10/26: US Scrambles On Depleting Munitions, Trump Begs Ships To Cross Strait Of Hormuz, Epstein Prison Guard Cash Deposit • Mar 10

  • The oil market is experiencing dramatic price swings above and below $100 a barrel.
  • Krystal Ball stated the administration is panicking over the price of oil.
  • Iranian missile capabilities pose a real risk to ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
  • U.S. gas prices surged from around $2.92 a month ago to approximately $3.54 today.
  • The administration's emergency measures to release oil reserves are a temporary solution at best.
  • Analysts predict the oil price surge could lead to energy shortages and significant demand destruction in many developing nations.
  • Countries like Bangladesh and Pakistan are already facing power outages as energy supplies dwindle.
  • Gas constraints in places like Bangalore could prevent hotels like Marriott and Hilton from serving breakfast.
  • Krystal Ball called it disgusting and preposterous to urge sacrifices for a war that people do not want.
  • Analysts note that the Iranian regime may not be inclined to allow a U.S. resurgence, opting for long-term economic warfare.
  • Shaky job numbers in sectors reliant on affordable energy suggest a looming economic crisis.

Also from this episode:

Trade (3)
  • Trump urged ships to traverse the Strait of Hormuz unapologetically, which is seen as dismissing real risks.
  • The insurance industry is hesitant to cover voyages through the Strait of Hormuz amid rising geopolitical tensions.
  • The Iranian state sees economic pressure as a strategic weapon to destabilize American markets.
Macro (1)
  • The interdependence of global economies means a contraction in Gulf states could send ripples through the U.S. market.
Markets (1)
  • If major investors from Gulf regions pull back, the U.S. could face a wave of sector disruptions.
MarketsEnergyWarMacro
Pod Save America
Pod Save America

Trump Celebrates High Gas Prices • Mar 13

  • Trump claimed victory in the conflict with Iran after one week, but John Favreau and Dan Pfeiffer argued he was ignoring the strategic reality of a new, more extreme Ayatollah vowing revenge.
  • The U.S. military operation has cost over $11.3 billion with no clear definition of victory, while leaving Iran's leadership intact and unrestrained, according to Reuters.
  • Iran has mined the Strait of Hormuz, threatening global oil shipments, and Pfeiffer called the administration's plan to escort tankers through these mined waters 'magical thinking'.
  • The conflict has killed seven American troops and over 2,000 civilians, including more than 100 children in a single school bombing.
  • Dan Pfeiffer said the situation is scarier if you've worked in a White House, noting that every war game predicted Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz, but the administration proceeded anyway.
  • With oil prices approaching $140 a barrel and the Strait potentially closed through April, Trump told Axios he's enthusiastic about continuing the operation for three to four more weeks with no clear off-ramp.

Also from this episode:

Politics (1)
  • White House aides are reportedly afraid to tell Trump the operation is failing because he keeps declaring it a success, creating a hermetically sealed bubble of false information.
WarPoliticsTrade
The Tucker Carlson Show
The Tucker Carlson Show

Tucker on the Propaganda Pawns, Bibi’s Threat to Trump, and the Great American Betrayal • Mar 12

  • Tucker Carlson states the U.S. has moved from a propaganda phase into a kinetic, physical war with Iran where military force, not rhetoric, will determine the outcome.
  • Carlson argues President Biden openly threatened nuclear options and Secretary of State Blinken said Israel forced America's hand, a stark but honest admission of the war's origins.
  • Proponents like Ben Shapiro frame the conflict morally, claiming that questioning the war is not just wrong but evil, akin to Holocaust denial, rather than arguing it serves U.S. interests.
  • Carlson contends that Iran's threshold for victory is low, requiring only regime survival, and that changing the regime would demand U.S. ground troops for which there is no public or political appetite.
  • A true strategic victory for Iran, Carlson claims, would be seizing control of the Straits of Hormuz, a 20-mile choke point for 20% of global oil and gas, which would instantly redraw global power dynamics.
WarMiddle EastPolitics
The Joe Rogan Experience
The Joe Rogan Experience

#2466 - Francis Foster & Konstantin Kisin • Mar 11

  • The escalating Middle East conflict is unfolding within a vacuum of reliable information where conspiracy theories flourish, and Konstantin Kisin argues even Western governments lack clarity on the real story.
  • False flag theories, like those from journalist Ryan Grim suggesting Israel attacked Saudi Aramco to draw Gulf states into war, are undercut by the reality that Saudi Arabia and the UAE already view Iran as a direct threat.
  • Konstantin Kisin suggests Gulf states like Saudi Arabia were allegedly on the phone to Trump encouraging action against Iran, undermining the rationale for a false flag provocation.
  • Kisin frames the situation as a gamble of gigantic proportions where he can tell a convincing positive story for the West and a convincing terrible one, and nobody knows which is true.
  • Joe Rogan contrasts the current strategic quagmire with the false confidence born from Desert Storm, a quick victory that led to the disastrous belief America could easily fix complex nations.
  • Kisin explains that regime change in Iran is not simple, as the country is held together by a 200,000-strong IRGC, secret police, and a vast population of government employees and their families all invested in the regime.
  • Removing Iran's leadership risks total state disintegration along ethnic and political lines, mirroring the catastrophic fractures seen in post-invasion Iraq and Libya.
  • The central takeaway is a profound lack of control, with the coin in the air and no one, not even the White House according to Kisin, knowing how the conflict will end.
WarMiddle EastDiplomacy

#2465 - Michael Shellenberger • Mar 10

  • Michael Shellenberger told Joe Rogan that President Trump's unilateral actions, like those in Iran, mark the end of the post-WWII rules-based international order.
  • Shellenberger argues that military and political actions in places like Venezuela and Iran are not traditional interventions for oil, regime change, or resource control.
  • According to Shellenberger, the primary goal of these actions is to demonstrate raw American power for its own sake, an application of Trump's 'art of the deal' to geopolitics.
  • Shellenberger contends Trump's decision-making is impulsive and personal, not part of a hidden master plan or evidence of puppeteering by other actors.
  • Shellenberger told Rogan that traditional guardrails like Congressional approval or UN consensus are now irrelevant, with the president acting unilaterally.
  • Shellenberger states this new paradigm of unilateral, non-expert-driven action is the new normal, a shift that will persist regardless of the next president's identity.

Also from this episode:

Politics (1)
  • Shellenberger cites Trump withholding subsidies from his largest campaign contributor, Elon Musk, as evidence the president is not beholden to transactional politics.
WarDiplomacyPolitics
Pod Save the World
Pod Save the World

Why Trump Might Send Ground Troops to Iran • Mar 11

  • The Trump White House's public messaging on the Iran war is incoherent, shifting from demands for unconditional surrender to claims of victory and back to threats within a matter of days.
  • Ben Rhodes argues Trump started the war with no clear objective, driven by a political gamble on a swift regime change that failed to materialize.
  • The killing of Iran's aging Supreme Leader installed a younger, more militant successor, an outcome Pod Save the World argues may have worsened the strategic situation.
  • A panicked White House pulled back from war rhetoric after advisers warned that spiking oil prices, which hit $120 a barrel, would hurt Republican midterm election prospects.
  • Tommy Vietor notes the war's goals and broader strategy are less clear 11 days in than at the start, with military actions disconnected from any diplomatic endgame.
  • Contradictory statements from Trump and acting Defense Secretary Pete Haggerty on whether the fight was 'complete' or 'just the beginning' underscore the undefined nature of the conflict.
  • Pod Save the World frames the war's direction as being managed by a president who views it as a political football game, controlled by financial panic and polling rather than a coherent strategy.
WarElectionsDiplomacy
What Bitcoin Did
What Bitcoin Did

Iran, Oil and the Next Financial Crisis | Luke Gromen • Mar 10

  • Luke Gromen says the U.S. Navy's recent refusal to enter the Strait of Hormuz after Iranian aggression revealed the failure of America's global military protection racket.
  • Iran demonstrated in the conflict that modern missile and drone technology has rendered traditional, legacy naval power partially obsolete.
  • The immediate financial pressure point is oil, with Gromen stating U.S. bond and stock markets cannot withstand a sustained price of $100 per barrel.
  • Gromen claims Iran is now weaponizing oil price spikes against U.S. fiscal stability, using this knowledge to force tactical pauses in conflict.
  • Gromen predicts the conflict will accelerate a frantic push by Iran, China, and Russia for Iran to obtain nuclear weapons.
  • Gromen concludes that the U.S. attempt to use Iran to choke China's oil supply has backfired, instead uniting adversaries against a common financial pressure point.

Also from this episode:

Politics (1)
  • Gromen argues this collapse of the security guarantee is catastrophic for U.S. financial dominance, as the dollar's status relies on global trust in American protection.
BTC Markets (2)
  • Bitcoin's price rose during recent Middle East tensions, a departure from its typical correlation with risk on assets, which Gromen interprets as a sign it is functioning as a geopolitical hedge.
  • This price action suggests a growing market perception of Bitcoin as digital property, separate from the fragilities of the traditional financial system.
WarTradeMarketsBTC Markets

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