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Hormuz blockade triggers global food and fuel crisis

Wednesday, April 22, 2026 · from 5 podcasts
5 SOURCESBreaking PointsNo AgendaWhat Bitcoin DidMacro VoicesThe Economist
  • The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed by insurance costs, not missiles, halting 13 million barrels of daily oil flow.
  • Fertilizer shortages threaten 2027 harvests; farmers are leaving fields fallow.
  • US faces a 1956 Suez moment: print money or crash the economy.

The Strait of Hormuz is shut, not by warheads, but by war risk premiums. Lloyd’s of London has hiked insurance rates fivefold, making passage financially suicidal. Adam Curry on the No Agenda Show argues that this financial blockade is doing what Iranian fast boats could not: choke global trade. Tankers sit idle. The US Navy’s seizure of the Iranian tanker Tuska lit the fuse, but the real damage is economic.

The physical shock is already locked in. Eric Townsend notes the last very large crude carrier (VLCC) passed on February 28. It takes 45 days to cross the ocean. That means a six-week supply hole is now hitting Asia. Rory Johnston confirms: no non-Iranian VLCCs have moved since April 12. Markets are blind to the lag. "The oil that isn’t coming has already failed to arrive," Luke Gromen said on Macro Voices.

The crisis extends far beyond fuel. About 30% of traded fertilizer moves through Hormuz. Avantika Chilcotti of The Economist warns that energy makes up to half of farm input costs. With gas prices soaring, fertilizer is unaffordable. Planting windows are closing. Unlike the 2022 Ukraine war, this hits farming inputs, not just harvests. There are no global fertilizer reserves to tap.

"You cannot apply double fertilizer in July to make up for a missed April."

- Luke Gromen, Macro Voices

The US is caught in a bind. Interest payments now exceed tax revenue. At 4.4% on the 10-year Treasury, the Treasury executed a $15 billion single-day buyback to hold the line. Jeff Ross argues the Treasury, not the Fed, is now setting rates through back-door yield manipulation. The goal: fund a Manhattan Project-style industrial buildup without triggering a bond market collapse.

China is the silent target. Ross believes the US aims to control Karg Island, the choke point for 90% of Iran’s oil. Deny China that flow, and you force a trade: oil for rare earths. But the petrodollar is cracking. Iran now accepts yuan and Bitcoin for transit. The US isn’t stopping it. "We’re witnessing the first time since the 1970s that oil trades outside the dollar," Ross said on What Bitcoin Did.

"The Treasury is neutering the Fed. Financial repression is the only way out."

- Jeff Ross, What Bitcoin Did

The fallout is global. TSMC and Indonesian nickel processors are slashing output. Helium and sulfur are running out. Flights are grounded. India’s industrial zones are shutting down. The UN warns 9 million in Asia-Pacific could fall into poverty. This isn’t a spike. It’s a systemic unraveling.

MacroEnergyRegulationTradeInflation
Luke GromenBitcoinChinaFederal ReserveIndiaIranStrait of HormuzUkraine

Source Intelligence

- Deep dive into what was said in the episodes

Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

4/21/26: US Seizes Iranian Ship, Energy Crisis Spirals, Trump Says No Ceasefire Extension • Apr 21

  • US ship seizures and Trump’s erratic messaging threaten to collapse the Islamabad ceasefire negotiations.
  • Trump is privately panicking over high energy costs and a potential 1970s-style political collapse.
  • Energy and raw material shortages in Asia signal a looming industrial standstill for the West.
EnergyMacroInflationWarTrade
No Agenda Show
No Agenda Show

Adam Curry

1861 - "Cone of Uncertainty" • Apr 19

  • Iran has repeatedly restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, allegedly in retaliation for a U.S. blockade on Iranian ports, with reports of vessels being fired upon. John C. Dvorak suggests the IRGC's actions are disorganized due to a lack of central leadership.
  • Colonel Ganyard claims Iran is forcing commercial ships through specific channels in the Strait of Hormuz to impose tolls up to $2 million per vessel, which the U.S. considers a red line against freedom of movement.
  • Adam Curry asserts the true cause of the Strait of Hormuz disruptions is a spike in insurance costs, with Lloyd's of London war risk premiums increasing five-fold from 0.2% to 1% of vessel value. Insurers are now demanding military escorts.
  • Democratic Congressman Ro Khanna criticized U.S. aid to Israel, citing its $45 billion defense budget and arguing the $3.8 billion annually from the U.S. could fund domestic healthcare and childcare.
  • Senator Ron Wyden stated that the FBI increased warrantless searches of Americans' communications by over a third last year, with sensitive searches tripling during the Trump administration, despite efforts by Mike Johnson to reauthorize FISA Section 702.
  • China's 2025 population data projects a drop to 1.405 billion, a decrease of 3.39 million from the previous year, marking the fourth consecutive year of negative growth, with 20 out of 27 provinces showing population decline.
  • President Trump signed an executive order to accelerate access to psychedelic treatments for veterans' mental health issues, including addiction, citing Joe Rogan's input and high success rates for psilocybin. The 1970 Controlled Substances Act originally classified these drugs to target anti-war movements.
Also from this episode: (9)

Science (1)

  • John C. Dvorak is facing potential further medical procedures due to a damaged lung lining, a complication arising from prior heart surgery, which is causing ongoing fluid accumulation.

AI & Tech (2)

  • Adam Curry dismisses claims of Donald Trump depicting himself as Jesus, asserting these images were AI-generated and used as a media narrative to influence Christian voters against him.
  • Anthropic warned about its new Claude Mythos Preview AI model, deeming it too powerful for public release because it is five times better at identifying security flaws than previous models, posing severe risks if it falls into the wrong hands.

Politics (3)

  • Negotiations between the U.S. and Iran over nuclear enrichment are ongoing, with the U.S. seeking a 20-year pause versus Iran's proposed 5-year pause. A 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah is also in effect, while the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is set to expire on April 21st.
  • A clip highlights controversial new laws in the Netherlands, including provisions for two men to create a joint embryo and single-person self-fertilization, as well as euthanasia for children aged 12 and up, and up to one year old under the "Groningen Protocol."
  • Over $17 million in taxpayer funds has been used to settle sexual harassment and assault allegations against members of Congress, who subsequently voted against disclosing the names of those involved.

Health (2)

  • Canada's Medical Assistance in Dying (MAID) program is criticized for offering death rather than healthcare, with "one in 20 deaths" attributed to euthanasia. Some doctors reportedly falsify death certificates by omitting MAID as the cause.
  • Research indicates GLP-1 weight loss medications, like Ozempic, can reduce libido and cause erectile dysfunction by affecting brain receptors responsible for mood and sexual drive, potentially contributing to the declining U.S. birth rate of 1.6 children per couple.

AI Infrastructure (1)

  • John C. Dvorak argues the real AI bubble is in hyperscalers and data center investments, not AI products, citing Allbirds' stock surge of 500-600% after pivoting to AI as an absurd "wild hail mary" comparable to dot-com era shell companies.
MacroTradeEnergyMediaHealth
What Bitcoin Did
What Bitcoin Did

Danny Knowles

This Is The End Of The Dollar System | Jeff Ross • Apr 17

  • Ross expects Bitcoin's bear market to persist, predicting one more leg down to sub-$60k levels. He bases this on negative momentum, tightening liquidity, and a strengthening dollar, though he acknowledges a recent dollar break lower could support risk assets.
  • He outlines a 'three burners' macro framework: liquidity, manufacturing PMI, and leverage. Ross sees the 'liquidity blob' expanding due to U.S. fiscal war spending, a recovery in the ISM Manufacturing PMI above 50, and a resurgence in bank lending.
  • Ross believes the U.S. is entering a period of 'structural inflation' in the 3-6% CPI range, driven by costly onshoring of manufacturing and military buildup. He argues this environment necessitates eventual yield curve control, a form of financial repression that erodes citizen purchasing power.
  • He asserts the U.S. is already in World War III, a conflict seeded in 2008 and marked by proxy wars. Ross predicts a U.S. move to seize Iran's Karg Island to control the Strait of Hormuz, aiming to pressure Iran and gain leverage over China, which is dependent on oil imports.
  • Ross forecasts a multipolar end to U.S. dollar hegemony, with oil increasingly traded in yuan and gold. He interprets U.S. inaction over yuan-based Strait of Hormuz payments as tacit acceptance of this new reality, marking the end of the petrodollar system.
  • He views the Federal Reserve as currently irrelevant, 'neutered' by the Treasury, and expects it to become a tool for yield curve control only when war borrowing overwhelms private demand for U.S. debt.
  • Ross argues AI-driven 'jobless recovery' will create a desperate white-collar class, necessitating a wealth redistribution like UBI. He claims this is not socialist dogma but a pragmatic response to humans competing against superior AI, citing potential civil unrest.
  • He references a historical theory that a hegemon's decline begins when its debt interest payments exceed military spending, a threshold the U.S. has now crossed.
Also from this episode: (1)

BTC Markets (1)

  • Jeff Ross, a fund manager, argues the 100-day moving average is a key technical resistance level for Bitcoin. He notes Bitcoin was rejected at that level in late October and mid-January 2025, and saw another tentative cross on the day of recording.
MacroTradeWarMarkets
Macro Voices
Macro Voices

MacroVoices #528 Luke Gromen: Hormuz Could Lead To a 1956 US Suez Moment • Apr 16

  • Gromen argues supply chain disruptions are accelerating nonlinearly while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, pointing to Japanese toilet maker TOTO's stock falling 7% after halting orders due to raw material shortages.
  • Eric Townsend notes the physical oil disruption hasn't started; the last VLCC transited on February 28th, and its cargo won't arrive until mid-April, creating a 6-week air pocket in global supply that will hit regions sequentially.
  • Gromen notes US interest and entitlement costs reached 102% of federal receipts for the first half of FY2026, creating a dynamic where a recession would force the government to choose between default or money printing.
  • Gromen highlights a shift in Treasury ownership from patient foreign central banks to leveraged hedge funds, citing a Fed white paper showing 37% of net Treasury issuance over four years went to Cayman Islands entities.
  • Rory Johnston states that despite market optimism, only small ships are transiting Hormuz; no non-Iranian VLCCs have passed since Saturday, April 12th, keeping the bulk of the Gulf's 13 million barrels per day production shut in.
  • Johnston explains the US blockade now targets Iranian oil exports, moving from a permissive price-cap stance to maximum economic pressure, which could escalate the supply shock if Iran shuts in its own production.
  • Johnston observes an unprecedented dislocation between physical and futures oil prices, with dated Brent at $132 versus $100 for June futures, and a Sri Lanka cargo delivered at $286 a barrel.
  • Patrick Sesna presents a structured options trade on TLT: buy a Jan 2027 $87 call for ~$3.25 and sell a Jun 2026 $85/$83 put spread for ~$0.45, aiming to hedge near-term inflation-driven yield spikes while positioning for a later growth-driven rally.
Also from this episode: (5)

Business (3)

  • Luke Gromen frames the Iran-Hormuz crisis as a potential 1956 US Suez moment, where the US faces a choice between a humiliating pullback or printing money to cap bond yields amid an oil spike.
  • Gromen cites a 2015 Our World in Data chart showing global population without synthetic nitrogen fertilizer would drop from 7.5 billion to 3.9 billion, framing the fertilizer shortage as a marginal threat to food supplies.
  • Gromen identifies 4.4% on the US 10-year Treasury yield as a key bogey for the Treasury, citing a record $15 billion single-day buyback to defend that level.

Markets (2)

  • Sesna notes the S&P 500 rally to 7,023 was a flows-driven squeeze concentrated in MAG7 stocks, with market breadth still weak, leaving direction dependent on upcoming earnings beats.
  • Townson and Sesna agree the market is prematurely pricing an all-clear on Hormuz, underestimating lagged supply impacts and the risk of Houthi action closing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which would add two weeks to shipping times.
MacroEnergyBankingInflationFed
The Intelligence from The Economist
The Intelligence from The Economist

Food awakening: Iran’s ripple effect • Apr 15

  • Avantika Chilkoti notes the Strait of Hormuz is more critical for fertilizer and agriculture than for energy, with about 30% of globally traded fertilizer transiting the waterway and its disruption threatening future food supply.
  • Chilkoti draws a contrast with the 2022 Ukraine crisis, where Russia and Ukraine produced roughly 12% of global calories and direct sanctions on agricultural goods were avoided to enable a Black Sea grain deal.
  • Avantika Chilkoti argues the current Iran-related disruption is more pernicious as its impact is indirect and gradual, with energy constituting up to 50% of farm costs in the rich world and no coordinated global fertilizer reserve to release.
  • Avantika Chilkoti explains the timing is critical as planting seasons in the Northern Hemisphere and Africa are underway, meaning fertilizer application windows are closing, with some farmers leaving land fallow due to high input costs against stagnant food prices.
  • Chilkoti reports the World Food Programme stated the aid stuck in its supply chain due to shipping disruptions is sufficient to feed 4 million people for a month, highlighting an immediate humanitarian crisis.
  • Superana cites three factors cooling Britain's veterinary sector: a Competition and Markets Authority investigation into pricing and consolidation, a drop in new pet acquisitions post-pandemic, and owner budget pressures reducing spending on extras like premium food.
Also from this episode: (5)

Science (1)

  • Katrine Braik states climate models forecast an El Niño for late 2024, which stacks on existing climate strains and typically harms food production in poor regions, as with the 2023-24 event that left 30 million in southern Africa needing food aid.

Politics (3)

  • Kira reports India’s Christians comprise about 2% of the population, with Muslims at 15% and Hindus at 80%, a demographic context for rising Hindu nationalist policies under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP government.
  • Kira details how anti-conversion laws in BJP-ruled states have proliferated, with 14 of India's 28 states now having such statutes, including Chhattisgarh's March 2024 law which defines coercion broadly and can impose life sentences or fines near $27,000.
  • Kira explains the laws enable vigilante action and state intrusion, requiring months of advance notice for conversions, public registries for objections, and in Maharashtra, mandating children of interfaith marriages adopt the mother's religion to counter 'love jihad' conspiracy theories.

Business (1)

  • Carla Superana reports Britain has one of Europe's highest pet ownership rates, with annual veterinary service spending at about £6.7 billion, a figure that surged post-pandemic but is now plateauing.
MacroEnergyRegulationDiplomacySociety

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