04-25-2026Price:

The Frontier

Your signal. Your price.

BUSINESS

Iran's strait blockade triggers global energy crisis

Saturday, April 25, 2026 · from 7 podcasts, 9 episodes
  • Lloyd’s insurance hikes, not just Iranian missiles, are blocking the Strait of Hormuz.
  • $300 oil and global food shortages loom as fertilizer production stalls.
  • US missile defenses are half-empty, leaving no room for further escalation.

The Strait of Hormuz is closed, but the real barrier isn’t Iranian warboats - it’s the cost of insurance. Adam Curry on No Agenda Show argues that Lloyd’s of London raised war risk premiums five-fold, forcing shippers to choose between ruinous premiums or idle fleets. The Joint War Committee’s move effectively shuttered the strait, even as Iran demands tolls and the US enforces a naval blockade.

"The real story is not the Iranian fast boats - it’s the five-fold increase in war risk premiums by Lloyd’s. That’s what’s stopping trade."

- Adam Curry, No Agenda Show

Meanwhile, the energy shock is rippling through global supply chains. Ole Hansen on Macro Voices warns that natural gas shortages are already slashing fertilizer output. With nitrogen fertilizer tied to gas prices, farmers from Kansas to Punjab are under-fertilizing crops. Hansen predicts a 2026 yield collapse in wheat and corn - setting the stage for a global food inflation surge by 2027.

The US response has been erratic. Trump’s blockade, meant to pressure Iran, backfired when Pakistani mediators arranged a ceasefire deal - only for Trump to extend the blockade at the last minute. Iran responded by seizing three container ships. Jeremy Scahill on Breaking Points calls this "whiplash diplomacy" - a term that captures how Trump’s unpredictability is undermining his own leverage.

"The Pentagon burned through 50% of its high-end missile interceptors in 38 days. We’re not winning - we’re depleting."

- Ryan Grim, Breaking Points

Behind the scenes, the US military is exposed. Internal DIA reports confirm 60% of Iran’s navy and two-thirds of its air force remain functional. Despite Trump’s claims of total victory, the US has exhausted half its THAAD and Patriot interceptors. A Pentagon assessment warns mine-clearing in the strait could take six months - pushing oil toward $300 a barrel.

Jack Mallers on his namesake show argues Iran isn’t fighting a military war - it’s waging a financial one. By choking oil flows, Iran forces inflation into a US economy already drowning in debt. "They don’t need to win on the battlefield," Mallers says. "They just need to break the Treasury market."

The fallout is global. China’s exports slowed in March as supply chains seize up. TSMC and nickel processors are cutting output due to sulfur and helium shortages. Even rural China is feeling it - Western fast food chains are retreating from new store builds as costs spiral.

Jeffrey Sachs on The Tucker Carlson Show calls the conflict a continuation of the 1996 Clean Break doctrine - Israel’s roadmap to dismantle seven nations. Iran is the last target. "Netanyahu called this war his dream come true," Sachs says. The US, he argues, is not acting in its own interest but as Israel’s enforcement arm.

Source Intelligence

- Deep dive into what was said in the episodes

Jeffrey Sachs on the Real Origins of the Iran War and the Coming Economic DevastationApr 24

  • Sachs states that the Strait of Hormuz closure, which handles 20% of the world's energy and 30% of its fertilizer, is a key driver of the escalating global economic crisis.
  • Sachs attributes US animosity toward Iran to the 1953 CIA-led overthrow of Prime Minister Mossadegh, who sought to nationalize Iranian oil, and the subsequent 1979 Islamic Revolution, which ended US control.
  • Sachs argues that Trump's motivation for war with Iran includes revenge for the 1979 revolution and a desire to seize Iran's oil, believing he could execute a swift "decapitation" operation similar to Venezuela.
  • Sachs notes that early secular Zionists like Theodore Herzl sought a Jewish state for national reasons, not religious ones, even considering alternative locations like Uganda for settlement.
  • Sachs believes Israel is "committing suicide" by pursuing extreme violence, alienating global opinion and violating international law, while relying on potentially unsustainable "unending, unconditional" US support.
  • Sachs predicts that an escalated Gulf war would cause physical destruction of energy infrastructure, leading to global stagflation, marked by soaring oil and food prices, as detailed in his 1982 book, *The Economics of Worldwide Stagflation*.
  • Sachs warns that the combination of war in West Asia and a potential "super El Nino" could trigger unprecedented political and economic destabilization globally, surpassing shocks seen since World War II.
  • Sachs criticizes the US government's degraded decision-making, contrasting it with the deliberative "XCOM" during the Cuban Missile Crisis, noting current decisions are primarily Trump's, influenced by Netanyahu's "fanatical and wrong" agenda.
  • Sachs highlights Congress's failure to uphold its Article 1 constitutional duty to declare war, observing that most Republicans and Democrats have voted against exercising oversight over current conflicts.
Also from this episode: (7)

War (5)

  • Jeffrey Sachs warns the unstable situation around Iran could escalate into a regional or world war, amplified by a global economic crisis caused by the Strait of Hormuz closure.
  • Sachs details the severe impact of the conflict on Iran, citing "tens of billions of dollars" in damages and thousands of casualties, including "160 schoolgirls" reportedly killed by Palantir's AI system.
  • Sachs argues that the US has waged an "economic war" against Iran since 1980, arming Saddam Hussein, assassinating leaders, and using financial sanctions to destroy its economy for over 46 years.
  • Sachs states that Israel's 1996 "Clean Break Strategy" aimed for military dominance by overthrowing seven Middle Eastern governments that supported Palestinian militancy, rather than accepting a Palestinian state.
  • Sachs claims the US has been instrumental in six of the seven wars outlined in Israel's Clean Break Strategy, costing the US "$5 to $10 trillion" and destabilizing Libya, Sudan, Somalia, Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq.

Diplomacy (1)

  • Sachs asserts that Iran has not pursued nuclear weapons, as confirmed by US intelligence, but sought a 2015 UN Security Council-backed treaty, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), for monitoring in exchange for sanction relief.

Religion (1)

  • Sachs explains that traditional rabbinic Judaism, prevalent from "400 AD to 1970," historically advised Jews to live peacefully in their current locations, a stark contrast to modern religious Zionist calls to return to the Holy Land.
Human Action Podcast
Human Action Podcast

Human Action Podcast

Luke Gromen on the Strait of Hormuz and Supply Chain CollapseApr 24

  • The global economy faces a sudden crash if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked.
  • Beijing controls the American military by supplying the parts for its missiles.
  • Central banks are dumping Treasuries for gold to escape dollar weaponization.

MacroVoices #529 Ole S Hansen: Commodities in The Wake of The Iran CrisisApr 23

  • The Iran conflict's impact extends beyond crude oil to refined products like diesel and jet fuel, and energy-intensive commodities such as aluminum and fertilizer, which rely on the Middle East's cheap energy supply.
  • Ole Hansen estimates normalization in energy markets will take two to three months *after* a peace deal, suggesting current forward curves for crude oil do not reflect the likely duration or a new price floor $10-$15 higher than previous ranges.
  • US crude oil production and rig deployment have not increased in response to higher prices; Ole Hansen questions if US production is nearing saturation or if backwardation disincentivizes producers from hedging future output.
  • The crude oil forward curve shows steep backwardation, driven by spot market tightness and speculative interest from hedge funds who are net long and buying at the front end of the curve.
  • Erik Townsend outlines a bull call spread trade in the December 2026 WTI contract, buying the $70 call and selling the $90 call for a net debit of $7.30, aiming to capture a higher structural floor with defined risk.
  • A fertilizer deficit due to Middle East disruptions could reduce crop yields next year; while agriculture generally remains in contango, soybean oil is backwardated due to its energy linkages.
  • Ole Hansen argues the world is moving from a 'just-in-time' to a 'just-in-case' system, necessitating higher inventory levels across commodities and strengthening the case for investing in hard assets amid secular inflation.
  • Gold's initial response to major crises is often a sell-off, followed by a strong recovery; Ole Hansen expects sideways trading in gold for weeks, but the foundation for a multi-year bull run remains intact.
  • Copper shows a solid uptrend, less volatile than precious metals, supported by recovering Chinese demand and supply-side struggles like the reliance on Middle Eastern sulfuric acid for mining.
  • Cotton prices are underpinned by high energy costs which make synthetic fibers, its petrochemical-derived competitor, more expensive, driving substitution back to natural cotton and supporting prices.
  • Erik Townsend warns that if the US blockade of Iran's oil exports continues for two more weeks, Iran and other producers could be forced to shut in wells, potentially extending global energy disruption for six to twelve months.
  • Patrick Ceresna notes uranium is structurally accumulating and making higher highs but lacks the big burst of momentum seen in other markets, potentially poised for a run higher if the broader market remains stable.
Also from this episode: (3)

Markets (3)

  • Ole Hansen highlights backwardation as selling an expiring contract at a higher price and buying the next at a lower price, generating a positive roll yield that significantly boosts total returns for long commodity positions.
  • Cocoa prices experienced a massive run-up due to production problems in Ivory Coast and Ghana, followed by a collapse as chocolate manufacturers reduced cocoa content and farmers increased output, leading to oversupply.
  • Patrick Ceresna reports an extraordinary 23-day April bull run in the S&P 500, up 13%, driven by systematic factors like CTA buying and dealer gamma collapse, with future advances dependent on Mag 7 earnings.

4/23/26: Navy Sec Fired, WH Freaks Over Intel On Iran Military, Food Inflation SpikesApr 23

  • Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth fires rivals to secure absolute control over Trump’s war strategy.
  • Internal assessments show the US exhausted half its defensive missiles during the Iran air campaign.
  • A six-month mine-clearing timeline for the Strait of Hormuz threatens a global energy collapse.

4/22/26: Iran Fires On Ships In Hormuz Strait, Ryan Debunks Laura Loomer, Robert Pape On Iran WarApr 22

  • Trump claimed Iran loses $500 million daily when the Strait of Hormuz is blockaded, asserting Iran only desires its closure to "save face" despite wanting it open for revenue.
  • Jeremy Scahill dismissed "MAGA world" media narratives of a Tehran coup as psychological warfare, emphasizing Iran's 47 years of institution-building mean decisions are centralized and unified, not chaotic.
  • Hamana Solomani Offshar's father, Ali Solomani Offshar (born 1947), had no brothers, and his family was from Yazd, hundreds of miles from Qassem Soleimani's Kerman, disproving any familial link.
  • Ryan reported Laura Loomer received false information about the women from Iranian American Shah supporters, who targeted Hamana Solomani Offshar due to her anti-Shah activism, not anti-American sentiment.
Also from this episode: (10)

War (5)

  • Iranian forces seized two container ships and attacked a third in the Strait of Hormuz, with one vessel sustaining heavy bridge damage from an IRGC gunboat, according to NPR and UK maritime reports.
  • Robert Pape identifies Iran's nuclear enrichment and control of the Strait of Hormuz as zero-sum issues, preventing negotiated compromise and driving both sides towards escalation rather than concession.
  • Robert Pape contends Iran intends to prolong the conflict until at least November to sabotage Trump's presidency, aiming to establish itself as an unchallengeable regional power.
  • Robert Pape stated Iran learned it could "beat America" in the eight weeks since February 27, a knowledge he calls a catastrophic outcome of Trump's foreign policy that will lead to a global economic dip.
  • Robert Pape points to Iran's recent actions, including seizing ships and parading missiles bearing American city names, as standard escalation tactics, signaling the conflict's continued duration.

Diplomacy (1)

  • Trump unilaterally extended a ceasefire with Iran but maintained a naval blockade, which Jeremy Scahill reported Iranian officials immediately rejected, refusing negotiations while the blockade persisted.

Corruption (1)

  • Ryan and Martaza Hussein of Dropsite News found the State Department falsely arrested Hamana Solomani Offshar (47) and Serena Hosseini (25) for alleged Soleimani ties, based on reviewed Iranian birth records and family wills.

Immigration (2)

  • The women sought asylum after Serena's 2012 public dance performance in Turkey, aired on TV Persia, led to her expulsion from schools and death threats in Iran when she was 12 years old.
  • Laura Loomer stated she wants all Islamic immigrants deported and still believes the women are related to Soleimani, despite evidence presented by Ryan Grim contradicting her claims.

Digital Sovereignty (1)

  • Hamana Solomani Offshar's house was ransacked on April 8 after her address was doxxed, an attack attributed to an Iranian American believing the false Soleimani family connection.

4/21/26: US Seizes Iranian Ship, Energy Crisis Spirals, Trump Says No Ceasefire ExtensionApr 21

Also from this episode: (9)

Other (9)

  • Saagar reports that US forces conducted a maritime interdiction and boarding of the sanctioned MT Tifani in the Indo-Paccom area, consistent with a global blockade expansion against Iranian-associated ships. Krystal notes similar past seizures targeted military technology, not just oil, escalating the conflict.
  • Jeremy Scahill states that Iran believes it has increased leverage, having been reluctant to agree to a two-week ceasefire due to concerns about US and Israeli rearmament. He indicates Iranian officials distrust US negotiators like Witkoff and Kushner, viewing them as Israeli assets lacking technical understanding.
  • Scahill highlights a robust debate within Iran's leadership, with some hardliners advocating for continued fighting, believing the US and Israel were cornered due to dwindling interceptor supplies and global economic chaos. He suggests external narratives exaggerate the internal split.
  • Scahill reveals that if the US resumes bombing, Iranian officials have indicated they will cut off all diplomatic channels indefinitely. Iran is also engaged in parallel discussions with strategic partners like China and Russia to establish alternative deterrence and regional balance.
  • Trump publicly dismissed his Energy Secretary Chris Wright's forecast that gas prices would not drop below $3 a gallon until next year, insisting they would fall as soon as the conflict ends. Krystal notes gas prices were $2.90/gallon before the war and are now around $4.02/gallon nationally.
  • The war has led to a significant energy crisis, with Krystal citing a 27% reduction in OPEC oil supply last month, a total loss of 600 million barrels of oil supply, and a 47% rise in gas prices since December. These conditions evoke comparisons to the 1970s oil shock and stagflation.
  • Saagar reports a UN estimate that 8.8 million people in Asia and the Pacific are at risk of falling into poverty due to the conflict, which also caused 92,000 global flight cancellations, doubling the pre-war rate. Krystal notes that the region's industrial clusters are shutting down and essential medicine costs are rising.
  • The UAE has asked the US for a potential currency swap line, indicating economic distress, which Trump seems open to providing. Kuwait, meanwhile, declared force majeure on crude oil and refined product shipments from the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Luxury brands like Louis Vuitton, Hermes, and Zegna are seeing plummeting sales in the Persian Gulf, forcing them to redirect merchandise to other regions. Brunello Cucinelli stores, for example, have experienced a 50% drop in foot traffic in the Middle East.

All Roads Lead to BitcoinApr 21

  • Mallers describes the ongoing Middle East conflict as having no clear resolution, impacting global supply chains with the Strait of Hormuz remaining effectively closed.
  • The US Navy intercepted an Iranian cargo ship, Tausa, in the Gulf of Oman, blowing a hole in its engine room for refusing orders, citing US Treasury sanctions against the vessel for prior illegal activity.
  • China's exports sharply slowed in March, missing forecasts, while its silver imports reached a multi-year high, indicating global supply chain disruptions impacting even major manufacturing economies.
  • Jack Mallers claims Iran's strategy is to destabilize the US financially through monetary means, not military, targeting the US debt-laden financial system via energy market disruption and inflation.
  • The UAE is seeking a currency swap line with the US, which Luke Groman interprets as a concession request from the US to maintain the petrodollar system, or risk the UAE transacting oil in CNY or other currencies.
  • China's CIPS payment system, effectively a gold-backed alternative to the dollar, saw increased volume in March, which Mallers suggests is linked to Iranian oil trade.
  • Mallers believes current market volatility is artificially suppressed by engineered market structure where political headlines trigger systematic trading by quant funds, leading to asset purchases and lower VIX levels.
  • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant expressed confidence in falling core inflation despite the Iran war and called for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, advocating for Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair.
  • Mallers expresses confusion regarding MicroStrategy's financing strategy, noting its focus on Bitcoin conviction rather than business profitability, questioning how it sustains perpetual preferred obligations with high dividends.
Also from this episode: (7)

Protocol (2)

  • Jack Mallers notes Bitcoin's price at $76,080, placing its market cap above $1.5 trillion, and it is 39.7% down from its all-time high of $126,160.
  • Strike has lowered minimums for its lending and Bitcoin line of credit products, now offering as low as $5,000 for lines of credit and $10,000 for term loans, and launched its line of credit in Texas and Colorado.

Macro (2)

  • Former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson stated the US needs an "emergency break the glass plan" for its Treasury market, highlighting the danger if the Fed becomes the sole buyer of government debt amid rising interest rates.
  • US consumer delinquencies are at their highest level since 2017, posing a significant risk to the US economy which relies heavily on consumer spending, making it vulnerable to unemployment from AI.

Markets (1)

  • Mallers observes a historic divergence between the S&P 500 reaching all-time highs and consumer sentiment hitting all-time lows, attributing this gap to policies that debase currency and inflate assets.

AI & Tech (1)

  • The CEO of Anthropic, a creator of Claude, warns AI is rapidly progressing from a high school student's intelligence to a college student's, posing a risk of widespread entry-level white-collar job replacement.

Culture (1)

  • Jack Mallers announced his engagement, sharing his philosophy that family, like Bitcoin, represents being part of something bigger and lasting longer than oneself, emphasizing love, community, and purpose.

Now boarding: America seizes an Iranian shipApr 20

  • Greg Karlstrom explains that Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Aragchi, tweeted the Strait was open subject to IRGC coordination and potential tolls, which is Iran's established position, not a full reopening.
  • Oil prices, specifically Brent crude, initially dropped to $85 a barrel last week due to market misinterpretation of Aragchi's tweet, but later jumped by $10 a barrel.
  • Negotiations between the US and Iran are scheduled for Tuesday in Islamabad, with US Vice President J.D. Vance leading the American delegation, though Iran's attendance is uncertain.
  • A Russian drone struck Chernobyl's New Safe Confinement (NSC) on February 14, 2025, piercing the protective dome; the NSC was installed 10 years ago to isolate the site for a century.
  • The New Safe Confinement (NSC), built for $1.6 billion by 45 nations and orchestrated by the EBRD, stands 108 meters tall, 250 meters wide, and 150 meters long.
  • Balthazar Lindauer, EBRD director, calls the drone damage 'very significant,' stating the NSC is now 'useless' as its hermetic seal is lost, though a maintenance garage reportedly saved Reactor 4 from a direct hit.
  • Following the strike, visible flames were extinguished in two hours, but smoldering between the NSC's internal and external layers burned for weeks, gutting about half of the internal membrane.
  • Engineers decided to fix the New Safe Confinement in place, rather than moving it, due to the high risk of leaving the unstable original sarcophagus unprotected.
  • The estimated repair cost for the NSC is 500 million euros, a figure expected to rise, and Rafael Mariano Grossi of the IAEA warns that radioactive release risks will grow without repairs.
  • Sunday marks the 40th anniversary of the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear accident.
  • Don Wineland notes that global fast food chains like McDonald's, KFC, and Starbucks are now rapidly expanding into rural Chinese cities, such as Handtuan, as major cities are saturated.
  • Saturation in large cities means 70% of KFCs and 60% of McDonald's in China are within a 10-minute bicycle ride of another location.
  • Many global fast food chains in China, including McDonald's (owned by Cidic Capital) and Yum China (KFC/Pizza Hut), are now predominantly backed by large local Chinese investors.
  • Local investors provide the capital for expansion into smaller, riskier markets, but challenges persist, including a lack of suitable real estate and competition from cheaper, locally tailored Chinese brands.
Also from this episode: (4)

War (3)

  • US forces fired upon and seized the Iranian-flagged Motor Vessel Tosca in the Strait of Hormuz, enforcing a blockade just before the existing ceasefire with Iran was set to expire on Wednesday.
  • Greg Karlstrom identifies three potential Iranian responses: direct attacks on US warships, attacks on commercial vessels in the Gulf for domestic retaliation, or negotiation to end the mutual blockade.
  • The US views its recent action in the Strait as evening out the situation, arguing Iran failed to reopen it as supposedly agreed, and expects it to provide leverage in upcoming talks.

Diplomacy (1)

  • While the US has dropped its demand for Iran to never enrich uranium, its request for a prolonged moratorium remains a significant point of contention in negotiations.
No Agenda Show
No Agenda Show

Adam Curry

1861 - "Cone of Uncertainty"Apr 19

  • Adam Curry dismisses claims of Donald Trump depicting himself as Jesus, asserting these images were AI-generated and used as a media narrative to influence Christian voters against him.
  • Iran has repeatedly restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, allegedly in retaliation for a U.S. blockade on Iranian ports, with reports of vessels being fired upon. John C. Dvorak suggests the IRGC's actions are disorganized due to a lack of central leadership.
  • Colonel Ganyard claims Iran is forcing commercial ships through specific channels in the Strait of Hormuz to impose tolls up to $2 million per vessel, which the U.S. considers a red line against freedom of movement.
  • Negotiations between the U.S. and Iran over nuclear enrichment are ongoing, with the U.S. seeking a 20-year pause versus Iran's proposed 5-year pause. A 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah is also in effect, while the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is set to expire on April 21st.
  • Adam Curry asserts the true cause of the Strait of Hormuz disruptions is a spike in insurance costs, with Lloyd's of London war risk premiums increasing five-fold from 0.2% to 1% of vessel value. Insurers are now demanding military escorts.
  • A clip highlights controversial new laws in the Netherlands, including provisions for two men to create a joint embryo and single-person self-fertilization, as well as euthanasia for children aged 12 and up, and up to one year old under the "Groningen Protocol."
  • Over $17 million in taxpayer funds has been used to settle sexual harassment and assault allegations against members of Congress, who subsequently voted against disclosing the names of those involved.
  • Senator Ron Wyden stated that the FBI increased warrantless searches of Americans' communications by over a third last year, with sensitive searches tripling during the Trump administration, despite efforts by Mike Johnson to reauthorize FISA Section 702.
  • President Trump signed an executive order to accelerate access to psychedelic treatments for veterans' mental health issues, including addiction, citing Joe Rogan's input and high success rates for psilocybin. The 1970 Controlled Substances Act originally classified these drugs to target anti-war movements.
Also from this episode: (6)

Science (1)

  • John C. Dvorak is facing potential further medical procedures due to a damaged lung lining, a complication arising from prior heart surgery, which is causing ongoing fluid accumulation.

Diplomacy (1)

  • Democratic Congressman Ro Khanna criticized U.S. aid to Israel, citing its $45 billion defense budget and arguing the $3.8 billion annually from the U.S. could fund domestic healthcare and childcare.

Health (2)

  • Canada's Medical Assistance in Dying (MAID) program is criticized for offering death rather than healthcare, with "one in 20 deaths" attributed to euthanasia. Some doctors reportedly falsify death certificates by omitting MAID as the cause.
  • Research indicates GLP-1 weight loss medications, like Ozempic, can reduce libido and cause erectile dysfunction by affecting brain receptors responsible for mood and sexual drive, potentially contributing to the declining U.S. birth rate of 1.6 children per couple.

China (1)

  • China's 2025 population data projects a drop to 1.405 billion, a decrease of 3.39 million from the previous year, marking the fourth consecutive year of negative growth, with 20 out of 27 provinces showing population decline.

AI & Tech (1)

  • Anthropic warned about its new Claude Mythos Preview AI model, deeming it too powerful for public release because it is five times better at identifying security flaws than previous models, posing severe risks if it falls into the wrong hands.