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US munitions crisis exposes Iran war as Israel proxy campaign

Wednesday, April 29, 2026 · from 7 podcasts, 11 episodes
7 SOURCESBreaking PointsThe EconomistBehind the BastardsTucker Carlson ShowThe DailyUngovernable MisfitsHuman Action Podcast
  • The U.S. has depleted 40% of its long-range missile stockpile, leaving it defenseless against a move on Taiwan.
  • Iranian generals now control the state and are monetizing the Strait of Hormuz, sidelining the clergy.
  • UAE is exiting OPEC, forcing allies to choose between U.S. protection and energy deals with China.

The Iran conflict has become a proxy war that is hollowing out American military power. On Breaking Points, Saagar Enjeti cited a New York Times report that the U.S. has already spent 1,100 long-range stealth cruise missiles and 1,200 Patriot interceptors, representing 40% of the national stockpile. Luke Gromen, on the Human Action Podcast, noted the absurdity: the U.S. military now needs China to produce components for missiles that might one day be aimed at Beijing.

"The U.S. has already burned through 1,100 long-range stealth cruise missiles. That represents 40% of the entire national stockpile."

- Saagar Enjeti, Breaking Points

The war is shifting Iran's internal power structure from a theocracy to a military dictatorship. According to Farnaz Fassihi's reporting for The Daily, decision-making now resembles a corporate board, with Revolutionary Guard generals holding every key lever of power. The injured Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, communicates via handwritten letters, providing religious cover for the generals' pragmatic agenda. Their goal is a grand bargain to lift sanctions and rebuild Iran's economy, even if it means inviting American oil companies back.

Allies are abandoning the U.S.-led order to survive. The UAE announced it will leave OPEC+ on May 1st, a move that removes 10-13% of the cartel's production. As Krystal Ball explained on Breaking Points, the UAE is under massive liquidity pressure and needs to pump oil at maximum capacity, regardless of Saudi quotas or petrodollar stability. Meanwhile, countries like Japan are reportedly paying Iran tolls in yuan or cryptocurrency to get tankers through the blockaded Strait of Hormuz.

"The UAE is entering a 'pump-it-if-you-got-it' phase to salvage their economy, regardless of how it undermines the petrodollar or regional stability."

- Krystal Ball, Breaking Points

Former officials see a fundamental capture of U.S. policy. Ex-CIA officer John Kiriakou told The Tucker Carlson Show that the U.S. is now prioritizing Israel's interests over its own, ignoring its own intelligence consensus that Iran has no active nuclear weapons program. This aligns with what Jeffrey Sachs, also on Carlson's show, described as the execution of a decades-old 'Clean Break' strategy to dismantle regional rivals, with Iran as the final target. The result is a conflict with no diplomatic off-ramp, fought with a depleted arsenal, for aims that serve a foreign power's regional vision.

WarDiplomacyTradeMiddle EastIran
Luke GromenNew York TimesUAECore LightningCentral Intelligence AgencyChinaIranIsraelJapanStrait of Hormuz

Source Intelligence

- Deep dive into what was said in the episodes

Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

4/28/26: Taxpayers To Pay For Ballroom, Congress Pushes Veteran Benefits For IDF, Hezbollah Drone Attacks, Ann Coulter On Trump And Iran • Apr 28

  • Lindsey Graham is leveraging an assassination attempt to secure taxpayer funding for Trump’s private ballroom project.
  • Proposed legislation would grant Americans serving in the IDF the same legal protections as US veterans.
  • Ann Coulter abandons Trump over a war she compares to the 2003 Iraq invasion.
WarMiddle EastDiplomacy

4/28/26: Trump Lashes Out At Iran, UAE Ditches OPEC, JD Thinks Hegseth Lying About War • Apr 28

  • Saagar notes the current U.S. red line against Iran focuses solely on keeping the Strait of Hormuz open, a demand detached from prior nuclear or proxy issues. The strait was fully open before the war started on February 27th.
  • Krystal cites an Axios report stating Trump told an advisor the only thing Iranians understand is bombs. She argues Trump undermined ceasefire talks by expanding the naval blockade and canceling negotiations in Islamabad.
  • Saagar reports Brent crude oil has returned to its pre-ceasefire price, indicating Iran's economic strategy is working. He notes Iran may soon fill its oil storage, forcing a critical decision to shut down production.
  • Krystal highlights Secretary Marco Rubio's Fox News interview, where he rejected Iran's new proposal to negotiate only on the Strait of Hormuz while setting aside nuclear talks, calling it unacceptable.
  • Saagar cites a Wall Street Journal report that last week saw the lowest-ever traffic through the Strait of Hormuz due to the U.S. blockade. Only one LNG tanker transited yesterday compared to the usual hundreds.
  • Krystal details a U.S. seizure of the tanker NT Majestic carrying 1.9 million barrels of Iranian oil. An Iranian official condemned the act as piracy and warned of retaliatory strikes on regional oil facilities.
  • Saagar references Jeremy Scahill's report that Iran's strategy rests on three points of leverage: munitions, markets, and the U.S. midterm elections. Iran aims to deny Trump a victory and prolong the conflict.
  • Krystal notes key U.S. allies are breaking ranks. A Japanese tanker secured transit through the Strait, and Germany's chancellor called the war a humiliating disaster for the U.S. with no exit in sight.
  • Saagar reports the UAE announced it will leave OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1st. The move, driven by financial pressure and frustration with Saudi quotas, removes 10-13% of the cartel's total production capacity.
  • Krystal cites an Atlantic report that Vice President JD Vance suspects Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is misleading Trump about U.S. weapons stockpiles and the war's progress. Vance has raised concerns in closed-door meetings.
  • Saagar details a New York Times report on depleted U.S. munitions: 1,100 long-range stealth cruise missiles, over 1,000 Tomahawks, and 1,200 Patriot interceptors were used. Replenishing stocks could take six years, compromising plans to defend Taiwan.
  • Krystal reports that Secretary Pete Hegseth took Kid Rock on a joyride in Apache helicopters at Fort Belvoir. She frames it as a sign of the administration's misplaced priorities during an ongoing war.
  • Saagar notes the House is voting on a War Powers resolution from Josh Gottheimer to end military action against Iran within 30 days. The only Democratic co-sponsor, Jared Golden, now faces pressure to vote for his own measure.
MacroEnergyMarketsDiplomacyWar

4/27/26: Iran Threatens Massive Barrage, Germany Says Trump Humiliated By Iran, Oil Shock Officially Here • Apr 27

  • Krystal reports that US-Iran talks in Islamabad collapsed after Trump canceled his negotiating team's trip, citing Iran's unmet demands and internal leadership confusion.
  • An Iranian advisor accused Pakistan of lacking credibility as a mediator, asserting it consistently sided with US interests and failed to challenge American positions.
  • Krystal notes Pakistan was interested in mediation due to its reliance on Qatar for 99% of its natural gas, requiring open Strait of Hormuz access.
  • Iranian Foreign Minister Arachi embarked on a diplomatic tour including Islamabad, Musket (Oman), and Moscow, which Saagar interprets as a direct message challenging Washington.
  • Krystal notes Israel sent Iron Dome systems and troops to the UAE during the Iran War, indicating the UAE's direct involvement in the conflict.
  • US intelligence suggests Iran laid additional mines in the Strait of Hormuz, with the Washington Post estimating six months to clear them for normal traffic, granting Iran negotiation leverage.
  • An Iranian account warned of launching "the largest missile barrage in history" against Israel and US-allied Arab nations if attacked, highlighting their maintained ballistic missile and drone capabilities.
  • Krystal cites an NBC News report detailing billions of dollars in damage to eleven US military bases, stating the extent was far worse than publicly acknowledged.
  • Saagar reports an Iranian F-5 fighter jet bombed US Camp Buring in Kuwait on February 28, bypassing air defenses, marking the first enemy fixed-wing aircraft strike on a US base since the Vietnam War.
  • Saagar believes the US military is "profoundly less prepared" for conflict after a five-week war, noting low munition stocks and 50% of advanced weapons gone, requiring five to eight years for replacement.
  • Krystal notes a planned IAEA disclosure meeting with Iran on June 13, 2025, which might have revealed a new enrichment site, was pre-empted by US bombings.
  • A Harvard nuclear specialist stated that Iran's nuclear knowledge cannot be bombed away, and new enrichment sites the size of a grocery store can be hidden in mountainous terrain.
  • Krystal cites a Bloomberg report indicating a "billion barrel" oil supply loss is guaranteed due to the Strait of Hormuz closure, more than double the emergency inventories released in February.
  • Saagar states the US Treasury is defending "US dollar swap lines," which he describes as a bailout for Persian Gulf allies whose economies are being impacted by the war.
  • Krystal reports the German Chancellor criticized the US, stating there's no exit strategy for the conflict and that US leadership is being "humiliated" by Iran's skillful negotiation and strength.
  • Saagar notes that Israel continues to bomb Lebanon, having killed 14 people and injured 37 civilians across southern Lebanon.
Also from this episode: (5)

Energy (2)

  • Rory Johnston believes traders are underestimating the oil shock's impact, as the reality is "too awful to price in," leading to demand destruction spreading globally.
  • Saagar notes national gas prices are around $4.11 per gallon, reaching $6.79 in Los Angeles and nearly $6 across California, with the cheapest at $3.50 in Oklahoma.

Business (2)

  • A Financial Times report indicated average petrol sales in the northeastern US fell 4.3% in March, contrasting with a 0.6% growth during the same period last year, signaling significant demand destruction.
  • Goldman Sachs forecasts the US economy could lose 10,000 jobs per month this year due to the oil shock, with unemployment rising to 4.6% by the third quarter.

Politics (1)

  • Krystal notes that Iranian parliamentary speaker Golliboff interpreted these swap lines as preventing disorderly sales of US treasuries and warding off threats of oil transactions being denominated in Chinese yuan.
WarEnergyMacroDiplomacy

4/22/26: Iran Fires On Ships In Hormuz Strait, Ryan Debunks Laura Loomer, Robert Pape On Iran War • Apr 22

  • Iranian forces seized two container ships and attacked a third in the Strait of Hormuz, with one vessel sustaining heavy bridge damage from an IRGC gunboat, according to NPR and UK maritime reports.
  • Trump unilaterally extended a ceasefire with Iran but maintained a naval blockade, which Jeremy Scahill reported Iranian officials immediately rejected, refusing negotiations while the blockade persisted.
  • Trump claimed Iran loses $500 million daily when the Strait of Hormuz is blockaded, asserting Iran only desires its closure to "save face" despite wanting it open for revenue.
  • Jeremy Scahill dismissed "MAGA world" media narratives of a Tehran coup as psychological warfare, emphasizing Iran's 47 years of institution-building mean decisions are centralized and unified, not chaotic.
  • Robert Pape identifies Iran's nuclear enrichment and control of the Strait of Hormuz as zero-sum issues, preventing negotiated compromise and driving both sides towards escalation rather than concession.
  • Robert Pape contends Iran intends to prolong the conflict until at least November to sabotage Trump's presidency, aiming to establish itself as an unchallengeable regional power.
  • Ryan and Martaza Hussein of Dropsite News found the State Department falsely arrested Hamana Solomani Offshar (47) and Serena Hosseini (25) for alleged Soleimani ties, based on reviewed Iranian birth records and family wills.
  • Hamana Solomani Offshar's father, Ali Solomani Offshar (born 1947), had no brothers, and his family was from Yazd, hundreds of miles from Qassem Soleimani's Kerman, disproving any familial link.
  • Hamana Solomani Offshar's house was ransacked on April 8 after her address was doxxed, an attack attributed to an Iranian American believing the false Soleimani family connection.
  • Robert Pape stated Iran learned it could "beat America" in the eight weeks since February 27, a knowledge he calls a catastrophic outcome of Trump's foreign policy that will lead to a global economic dip.
  • Neil Ferguson, biographer of Henry Kissinger, has adopted Robert Pape's analysis, acknowledging Iran's use of the Strait of Hormuz as a powerful economic lever and predicting prolonged negotiations and further bombing.
  • Robert Pape points to Iran's recent actions, including seizing ships and parading missiles bearing American city names, as standard escalation tactics, signaling the conflict's continued duration.
Also from this episode: (4)

Immigration (2)

  • The women sought asylum after Serena's 2012 public dance performance in Turkey, aired on TV Persia, led to her expulsion from schools and death threats in Iran when she was 12 years old.
  • Laura Loomer stated she wants all Islamic immigrants deported and still believes the women are related to Soleimani, despite evidence presented by Ryan Grim contradicting her claims.

Media (1)

  • Ryan reported Laura Loomer received false information about the women from Iranian American Shah supporters, who targeted Hamana Solomani Offshar due to her anti-Shah activism, not anti-American sentiment.

Health (1)

  • Hamana Solomani Offshar, held in an ICE detention facility, suffers from an autoimmune disorder requiring blood transfusions, which are not being provided, only pills to raise hemoglobin levels.
WarDiplomacyMiddle EastImmigrationCensorship
The Intelligence from The Economist
The Intelligence from The Economist

The regal has landed: can Charles boost US bond? • Apr 28

  • Daniel Franklin says King Charles's state visit is an attempt to salvage the 'special relationship' between Britain and America, which faces its worst crisis since the 1956 Suez crisis.
  • The core friction stems from the Iran war, with Donald Trump angered by British and NATO support and exchanging barbs with Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
  • The relationship is asymmetrical in importance; Franklin notes it's more critical to Britain, but remains significant for America through intelligence sharing via the Five Eyes pact and close nuclear collaboration.
  • King Charles himself has marginally negative favorability ratings in America, but Donald Trump holds a uniquely positive view of him, which Franklin sees as a diplomatic opportunity.
Also from this episode: (10)

Politics (1)

  • Public opinion has soured: favorable views of America among Brits have plunged from 80% twenty years ago to just 34% today.

Business (6)

  • Ethan Wu says Japan's auto industry is 'on the brink of survival,' citing Honda's projected first net loss since 1957 and Nissan's brutal restructuring plan involving seven factory closures by 2028.
  • Japanese automakers' global market share fell from nearly a third in 2019 to a quarter last year, hampered by US tariffs and a slow pivot from petrol cars and hybrids to full electric vehicles.
  • EV adoption has surged globally from 3% of the market in 2019 to 26% last year, but Japanese firms were late; at Nissan, petrol cars still make up about 80% of its fleet.
  • The competitive threat is most acute in Southeast Asia, a traditional Japanese stronghold; in 2025, EVs made up 45% of new car registrations in Singapore and 20% in Thailand.
  • Toyota stands apart with a profitable 'multi-pathway' strategy, maintaining 40% global hybrid market share while developing EVs for China, and remains the world's largest carmaker by sales and profit.
  • Industry consolidation is seen as inevitable, but a potential Honda-Nissan merger collapsed in 2024; companies now explore collaboration on procurement to cut costs.

Health (1)

  • Stevie Hertz reports New York health authorities have revised guidance, now stating one portion of Hudson River striped bass is safe for anyone to eat, marking a turnaround from past warnings.

Climate (2)

  • A $1.7 billion Superfund cleanup from 2009 removed 2 million cubic meters of PCB-contaminated sediment from the Hudson, dramatically reducing chemical levels in fish and making most of the river swimmable.
  • The river's pollution is uneven; eating fish caught upstream remains unsafe, and the EPA will decide next year if further cleanup is needed.
DiplomacyMarketsEnergyClimate
Behind the Bastards
Behind the Bastards

Part One: The Naturopathic Doctor Who Bombed a Plane • Apr 28

  • Naturopathy emerged as a marketing pivot to shield 1900s grifters from medical licensing laws.
  • Mass murderer Robert Spears was raised in a nomadic masterclass of identity theft.
HistoryBiologyPsychology
The Tucker Carlson Show
The Tucker Carlson Show

Tucker Carlson

Ex-CIA Officer John Kiriakou on the Truth About Iran, False Flags, and What’s Really Happening in DC • Apr 27

  • John Kiriakou asserts that the White House and US intelligence community lacked a consensus for war with Iran, which traditionally requires intelligence estimates and consultation with the State Department, Defense, National Security Advisor, and international allies.
  • Kiriakou claims the US did not consult European or Gulf Arab allies before the current Iran conflict, contrasting this with past wars (1990-91 Gulf War, 2003 Iraq War) where the US prioritized its own interests despite Israeli complaints.
  • Kiriakou argues that US decisions often reflect Israel's best interests over its own, citing two unanimous National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs) from all 18 US intelligence organizations concluding Iran has no nuclear weapons program.
  • Kiriakou recounts a 2009-2011 Senate study revealing Afghanistan produced 93% of the world's heroin, alleging a DEA colleague suggested the US government allowed poppy cultivation to weaken Iran and Russia.
  • Kiriakou criticizes the CIA for historically prioritizing anti-communism over counternarcotics, noting that President Trump's reclassification of cartels as foreign terrorist groups could legally empower agencies against them, but has yet to have a significant effect.
  • Kiriakou asserts that diplomacy is the only path to restore stability in the Gulf, forecasting that Iran, now a BRICS country, will emerge stronger and closer to China, Russia, and India, potentially leading to a unified BRICS currency.
  • Kiriakou identifies the MEK (Mujahedin-e-Khalq) as a "quasi-communist cult" that engaged in anti-American terrorism in the 1970s and later paid millions to Washington lobbyists to be removed from the terrorism list in 2009.
  • Kiriakou describes the Shah's son, Reza Pahlavi, as a “playboy” unfit to lead, whose current prominence is a manufactured Israeli preference due to his father's diplomatic relations with Israel.
  • John Kiriakou’s MI6 acquaintance observed British bewilderment at US foreign policy post-9/11, particularly the Iran war, suggesting a decline in US-UK relations and noting a current “actively hostile” relationship with Canada.
  • Kiriakou attributes the Israel lobby's (AIPAC) influence to President Nixon's 1970 policy shift guaranteeing Israel's safety, arguing AIPAC should be required to register as a foreign agent, a measure John F. Kennedy attempted.
Also from this episode: (2)

Politics (2)

  • Kiriakou and Tucker Carlson question why investigations into assassination attempts against former President Trump were halted, attributing this lack of action to either presidential weakness or deeper systemic issues preventing appropriate government investigation.
  • Kiriakou is pessimistic about the US government returning to its original purpose, citing the politicization of the CIA, where 51 senior intelligence officers allegedly lied about the Hunter Biden laptop.
WarDiplomacyMiddle EastCorruptionMacro

Jeffrey Sachs on the Real Origins of the Iran War and the Coming Economic Devastation • Apr 24

  • Jeffrey Sachs warns the unstable situation around Iran could escalate into a regional or world war, amplified by a global economic crisis caused by the Strait of Hormuz closure.
  • Sachs states that the Strait of Hormuz closure, which handles 20% of the world's energy and 30% of its fertilizer, is a key driver of the escalating global economic crisis.
  • Sachs details the severe impact of the conflict on Iran, citing "tens of billions of dollars" in damages and thousands of casualties, including "160 schoolgirls" reportedly killed by Palantir's AI system.
  • Sachs attributes US animosity toward Iran to the 1953 CIA-led overthrow of Prime Minister Mossadegh, who sought to nationalize Iranian oil, and the subsequent 1979 Islamic Revolution, which ended US control.
  • Sachs argues that the US has waged an "economic war" against Iran since 1980, arming Saddam Hussein, assassinating leaders, and using financial sanctions to destroy its economy for over 46 years.
  • Sachs asserts that Iran has not pursued nuclear weapons, as confirmed by US intelligence, but sought a 2015 UN Security Council-backed treaty, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), for monitoring in exchange for sanction relief.
  • Sachs states that Israel's 1996 "Clean Break Strategy" aimed for military dominance by overthrowing seven Middle Eastern governments that supported Palestinian militancy, rather than accepting a Palestinian state.
  • Sachs claims the US has been instrumental in six of the seven wars outlined in Israel's Clean Break Strategy, costing the US "$5 to $10 trillion" and destabilizing Libya, Sudan, Somalia, Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq.
  • Sachs argues that Trump's motivation for war with Iran includes revenge for the 1979 revolution and a desire to seize Iran's oil, believing he could execute a swift "decapitation" operation similar to Venezuela.
  • Sachs explains that traditional rabbinic Judaism, prevalent from "400 AD to 1970," historically advised Jews to live peacefully in their current locations, a stark contrast to modern religious Zionist calls to return to the Holy Land.
  • Sachs believes Israel is "committing suicide" by pursuing extreme violence, alienating global opinion and violating international law, while relying on potentially unsustainable "unending, unconditional" US support.
  • Sachs predicts that an escalated Gulf war would cause physical destruction of energy infrastructure, leading to global stagflation, marked by soaring oil and food prices, as detailed in his 1982 book, *The Economics of Worldwide Stagflation*.
  • Sachs warns that the combination of war in West Asia and a potential "super El Nino" could trigger unprecedented political and economic destabilization globally, surpassing shocks seen since World War II.
  • Sachs criticizes the US government's degraded decision-making, contrasting it with the deliberative "XCOM" during the Cuban Missile Crisis, noting current decisions are primarily Trump's, influenced by Netanyahu's "fanatical and wrong" agenda.
  • Sachs highlights Congress's failure to uphold its Article 1 constitutional duty to declare war, observing that most Republicans and Democrats have voted against exercising oversight over current conflicts.
Also from this episode: (1)

History (1)

  • Sachs notes that early secular Zionists like Theodore Herzl sought a Jewish state for national reasons, not religious ones, even considering alternative locations like Uganda for settlement.
WarDiplomacyMacroEnergyMiddle East
The Daily
The Daily

Who’s Really Running Iran? • Apr 27

  • Farnaz Fassihi's month-long reporting inside Iran, including 22 interviews with senior officials and Revolutionary Guard members, reveals decision-making power has shifted decisively from the Supreme Leader to the Guards.
  • The Revolutionary Guards have evolved from an elite military force into a parallel power with key government positions and a vast economic conglomerate spanning energy, transportation, and tourism. The war has made them the dominant power.
  • Supreme Leader Moushabi is gravely injured from the initial air strikes, with a possible leg amputation, three operations, severe facial burns, and difficulty speaking, limiting his public role. Israeli assassination threats have forced him into a high-security hideout with communication limited to handwritten letters.
  • Moushabi's deep, decades-long personal bonds with Guard commanders, forged as teenage volunteers in the Iran-Iraq War's Habib Brigade, underpin the current trust and collaborative rule.
  • Fassihi argues Iran is transforming from a clerical theocracy into a military dictatorship with a cleric as its figurehead leader.
  • The Guard generals are more pragmatic than ideological clerics, motivated by power and economic survival rather than religious doctrine. This shift enabled them to directly negotiate with the US five weeks after their Supreme Leader was killed.
  • Iran's key incentive for a deal is sanctions relief to rebuild a shattered economy, with war losses estimated between $300 billion and $1 trillion. The Guards have proposed allowing American oil and shipping companies to invest, reversing a 47-year ban.
  • Iran views controlling the Strait of Hormuz as a monetizable tool, calculating they can earn more from tolling ships than from oil revenues. They use threats like mines to disrupt global shipping for leverage.
  • Major unresolved negotiation points include the level of uranium enrichment Iran will stop at and how both the US and Iran can save face and avoid looking like they capitulated.
  • Iran's leaders see Israel as a persistent post-war threat of covert operations and assassinations, believing the US has influence but not a guarantee to restrain them.
  • The Guards' ideal outcome is a grand deal ending hostilities and Iran's 47-year limbo with the US, leading to sanctions removal, American investment, and domestic stabilization.
Also from this episode: (2)

Politics (2)

  • Decision-making now operates like a board of directors, with the Guards' generals as members and the injured Supreme Leader as chairman who approves decisions to lend them legitimacy.
  • A gunman armed with knives, a shotgun, and a handgun breached security at the White House Correspondents' Dinner, exchanging fire before being subdued. The suspect, Cole Thomas Allen, left a note targeting administration officials.
WarDiplomacyMiddle EastBusiness
Ungovernable Misfits
Ungovernable Misfits

Coffee Date with LNbits | FREEDOM TECH FRIDAY 38 • Apr 27

Also from this episode: (10)

AI & Tech (1)

  • LNbits is a self-hosted, MIT-licensed software layer that adds an API and UI to a Lightning funding source, enabling extended functionality beyond a basic wallet.

Protocol (3)

  • Black Coffee describes LNbits as an open platform akin to WordPress for a Lightning node, with a core user base of merchants, developers, and individuals running it for personal or family use.
  • The LNbits Box is a dedicated hardware product running NixOS that offers plug-and-play setup with integrated funding sources like Spark, Phoenix, or Arc, a web-based admin panel, and encrypted backup systems.
  • Black Coffee argues the self-custody narrative in Bitcoin is often a 'no true Scotsman' fallacy, advocating for pragmatic trade-offs like using Spark or Phoenix which offer usability despite not being perfectly trust-minimized.

Business (1)

  • LNbits offers a commercial SaaS product at mylnbits.com, allowing users to spin up hosted instances, and extensions can be monetized through one-time payments, subscriptions, or revenue-sharing models like a point-of-sale kickback.

Lightning (5)

  • LNbits supports over twenty funding sources including Core Lightning, LND, Phoenix, Spark, and the upcoming Arc, and users can switch between them at any time within the interface.
  • The platform's TunnelMeOut extension provides a paid reverse proxy service starting at 100 sats per day, granting Clearnet access to instances running on home servers without requiring manual VPS setup.
  • Major LNbits extensions include a point-of-sale system with inventory management, a webshop plugin, Nostr integrations for zaps and Lightning addresses, and channel management tools for CLN and LND backends.
  • Black Coffee says LNbits is designed for LLM-assisted 'vibe coding', providing comprehensive API documentation and an OpenAPI spec to enable rapid development of custom Lightning applications.
  • Black Coffee identifies awareness as LNbits's primary growth challenge, noting the project's broad functionality makes it harder to market than single-purpose tools.
BTC MarketsAdoptionPaymentsEnterprise
Human Action Podcast
Human Action Podcast

Human Action Podcast

Luke Gromen on the Strait of Hormuz and Supply Chain Collapse • Apr 24

  • Gromen argues that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz would be fatal to the global and US economies due to critical shortages of oil, gas, sulfuric acid, fertilizer, and rare earths.
  • Gromen predicted a nonlinear breakdown in supply chains by mid-April following the conflict, noting that even a single missing component can halt product manufacturing in a globalized, highly levered world.
  • Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens quickly, physical constraints in restarting plants, like those for aluminum, mean serious disruptions would continue for months, worsening daily if closure persists.
  • The initial minimal market reaction to the Strait of Hormuz closure was short-lived, with oil prices rapidly exceeding $110 a barrel before policy interventions.
  • Secretary Bessant unsanctioned Russian and Iranian oil in sequence after prices surged past $110, an action Gromen describes as a desperate attempt to loosen supplies despite strategic conflicts.
  • The "blockade of the blockades" by the US was likely an optics move to manage perceptions and provide leverage, as strategically, Iran was winning by simply maintaining the closure.
  • Gromen believes China's potential cutoff of rare earth exports to the US ended the war, as the US military cannot produce interceptor missiles without Chinese rare earths.
  • Dr. Murphy noted that the US is a net importer of crude oil, refuting the idea that it could easily replace supplies cut off by a Strait of Hormuz closure.
  • Gromen asserts China holds leverage over the US due to dominance in rare earths and electrical equipment, resulting from a patient long-term investment strategy while the US engaged in unproductive wars.
  • Gromen notes that a quorum of US military components are made in China, creating a strategic vulnerability if the US requires China to produce missiles aimed at itself.
  • Luke Gromen argues the weaponization of the dollar through sanctions, like kicking Iran out of SWIFT in 2012, has strategically backfired by pushing Russia and China together to develop alternatives.
  • China responded by launching its China International Payment System (CIPS) by 2015, which is more comprehensive than SWIFT, handling messaging, settlement, and full payment services.
  • China has established offshore yuan clearing banks in major gold hubs globally (London, Switzerland, Dubai, Singapore, Hong Kong) and has tested the e-yuan in oil and gold markets.
  • To obtain yuan for trade, countries must sell dollars, buy gold, and then sell that gold to China for yuan, a system already in place for transactions with nations like Iran.
  • For four of the past five months, non-monetary gold has been the United States' largest single export, primarily destined for China, Hong Kong, Switzerland, and Gulf countries.
  • Gromen suggests this gold outflow indicates China may have already activated a switch, demanding gold for critical goods like rare earths instead of dollars or Treasuries.
Also from this episode: (7)

Macro (2)

  • Luke Gromen, founder of FFTT LLC, a macro-thematic investment research firm, aggregates public data to identify economic bottlenecks, which are situations that cannot continue due to constraints.
  • Gold limits government and central bank power, an insight famously shared by Alan Greenspan before his tenure as Fed Chair, as gold prevents unlimited debt and financialization.

Politics (3)

  • Gromen criticizes policymakers' and markets' complacency regarding supply chain breakdowns, suggesting a cynical motive to maintain market calm and avoid seeking unfavorable peace terms for the US.
  • China viewed the US response to the 2008 financial crisis, particularly quantitative easing and devaluation, as a 'financial attack' on their US bond holdings.
  • China ceased buying US bonds in late 2013, instead recycling dollars into hard assets like mines and ports globally, and committed to dominating future industries through its Made in China 2025 initiative.

Corruption (1)

  • Gromen suggests politically connected entities may have front-run oil markets, citing a $500 million short position after a Trump tweet about Iran and a $950 million short position before a ceasefire announcement.

Markets (1)

  • Gold has already supplanted Treasuries as the largest reserve asset for global central banks on an adjusted basis, signifying a shift away from dollar-denominated reserves at gold's current value.
EnergyMacroChinaMarkets

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