The US strategy to isolate Iran has pivoted from a naval knockout to a grinding economic war. Days after launching 'Project Freedom' to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, the White House paused the operation. On Breaking Points, Ryan Grim argued the US blinked because it lacked the military capacity to safely escort ships after Iran refused safe passage, leaving crews stranded.
Iran bypassed the porous blockade, routing cargo overland through Pakistan. According to a Breaking Points report, at least 52 Iranian ships have already breached the naval line. The US Navy's ability to enforce the blockade was already weakened, with Iran using high-resolution Chinese satellites to force US ships 3,000 km offshore, as analyst Trita Parsi noted. The military reality forced a retreat to negotiations centered on an Iranian nuclear moratorium in exchange for sanctions relief.
Domestic economic pain drove the pivot. Gas prices in states like Illinois jumped 50 cents in a day, and a New York Times focus group found Trump voters feeling 'betrayed.' On The Daily, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth framed this cost as necessary to prevent a nuclear Iran, but the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey hit its lowest point in 50 years. Krystal Ball noted the Iran war is already as unpopular as the Vietnam War was at its worst, but it took Vietnam six years to reach that level.
"Trump posted on Truth Social that Project Freedom is 'paused' pending a potential deal with Iran."
- Saagar Enjeti, Breaking Points
The economic warfare itself has been brutal. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's 'Operation Economic Fury' collapsed Iran's largest bank and caused a 60-70% devaluation of the Iranian rial, as detailed on No Agenda. The US also seized nearly $500 million in crypto assets intended for Iranian proxies. Yet China is capitalizing on the weakness, formally rejecting US sanctions on Iranian oil for the first time and settling trades in renminbi.
The regional coalition is imploding. Breaking Points reported deep suspicion that Saudi Arabia and the UAE are sabotaging each other's oil infrastructure, with the UAE suspecting Saudi Arabia of striking its Fujairah port. This intra-Gulf conflict reveals a crumbling anti-Iran alliance. Meanwhile, the US faces a new legal front: 30 House Democrats demanded the US acknowledge Israel's undeclared nuclear arsenal, a move that could make future US arms transfers illegal under nonproliferation treaties.
"The US lost 50% of its interceptor capacity in the 38-day war. The world now sees a breakdown of the US global empire."
- Krystal Ball, Breaking Points
The administration is bypassing congressional oversight to continue the conflict. Secretary Hegseth testified that a ceasefire indefinitely pauses the 60-day clock for congressional war authorization, a legal theory scholars reject. He framed domestic critics as 'defeatists' and 'Pharisees,' a term Senator Jacky Rosen challenged as an anti-Semitic slur. The war's costs are mounting - estimates range from $25 billion already spent to a potential $631 billion long-term hit.
The strategy has left the US in a stalemate: unable to secure a military victory, facing a boiling domestic economy, and watching its diplomatic and financial tools be systematically bypassed by adversaries and erode from within by allies.
