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POLITICS

St Onge says Supreme Court ruling secures 40 House seats for GOP

Monday, May 11, 2026 · from 3 podcasts
  • A recent Supreme Court ruling allows Republicans to redraw maps, threatening 69 Democratic seats.
  • Peter St Onge projects a 40-seat House swing by 2028, flipping control irrespective of presidential elections.
  • Party loyalty is now enforced via Trump's primary 'revenge tour' targeting recalcitrant legislators.

The Supreme Court has reshuffled American power for a generation. The ruling clarifies political redistricting is legal even if it impacts minority-heavy districts, nullifying the judicial restraint that long shielded Southern Democrats.

Peter St Onge projects an immediate 18-seat swing, with Axios mapping six new Republican seats in Texas, four in Florida, and two each in Alabama and Georgia. The long-term shift could hit 40 seats, moving the House from being Republican one-third of the time to almost half.

"538 estimates a 40-seat swing if all states redraw aggressively."

- Peter St Onge, Peter St Onge Podcast

This structural advantage isn't about the 2026 midterms; it sets the stage for 2028. A durable Republican majority would strip power from swing-vote moderates, locking in control regardless of the White House outcome.

That realignment triggers a loyalty purge. On The Daily, Shane Goldmacher and Reid Epstein detail President Trump's 'revenge tour' in Republican primaries, targeting state senators in Indiana who refused his redistricting order last fall. Polling showed the issue was unpopular with their own voters, but political loyalty is the sole criterion.

By forcing candidates to pass purity tests, Trump is stripping them of the wiggle room needed to appeal to independents. As Lisa Lerer notes, the president is expending political capital on internal vendettas instead of focusing on voter concerns like the cost of living or the competitive general election races that decide control of Congress.

The Democratic Party, meanwhile, is crumbling from its own base's fury. In Maine, Governor Janet Mills dropped out of the Senate primary after political unknown Graham Platner led her by 30 points despite a history of controversial online comments and a covered-up Nazi insignia tattoo.

"Democratic voters' fury at the establishment appears to outweigh these concerns."

- Lisa Lerer, The Daily

This sets up a 2028 where one party controls the House by structural design, while the other is consumed by internal revolt. The Court didn't just rule on a map; it cemented a decade of Republican dominance.

Source Intelligence

- Deep dive into what was said in the episodes

Ep 172 Weekly Roundup: GOP Could Redistrict 40 SeatsMay 11

  • Peter St Onge says the Supreme Court ruling on gerrymandering could immediately shift 18 House seats to Republicans, with a long-term swing of 30-40 seats, moving the House from being Republican one-third of the time to almost half the time.
  • St Onge cites Axios analysis showing the ruling could yield six new Republican seats in Texas, four in Florida, two each in Alabama and Georgia, and flip four battleground seats, leaving at least six Southern states with no Democratic districts.
  • He argues in states Trump won against Kamala Harris, Democrats hold 69 congressional seats, but Republicans hold only 39 in states Harris won, creating a 30-seat disparity. 538 estimates a 40-seat swing if all states redraw aggressively.
  • He cites USDA data showing 14,000 SNAP beneficiaries own luxury cars like Ferraris and Bentleys. St Onge claims fraud consumes roughly one in four SNAP dollars in states that report honestly.
Also from this episode: (8)

Business (2)

  • St Onge states the United Arab Emirates left OPEC after 58 years, tired of OPEC's production caps that idled a third of its capacity, costing the nation $30-40 billion annually.
  • He claims OPEC's share of global oil exports fell from nearly 90% in the 1970s to just over half today, weakening its pricing power. A full cartel collapse could drop oil prices to $40-45 and gasoline to $2 per gallon.

Politics (6)

  • St Onge says 4.5 million people have lost SNAP benefits since last July due to tightened rules, but another 30 million recipients are either scamming the system or do not genuinely need assistance.
  • St Onge notes SNAP enrollment exploded from 3 million in 1969 to 45 million when Obama left office. He argues 80% of current recipients may not need aid, based on Massachusetts's enrollment jumping from 3-12% of residents 25 years ago to 15.4% today.
  • He states the European Parliament's 'Democracy Shield' would create a censorship body that already oversees the takedown of 80 million posts monthly, with an independent study finding up to 99.7% of those were legal.
  • St Onge claims European authorities arrest over a thousand people per month for speech violations. He cites a UK think tank estimating thought crime policing consumes 650,000 hours annually while 90% of violent and sexual crimes go unsolved.
  • He argues Argentina's President Javier Milei cut housing costs 70% in two years by eliminating rent control and deregulating leases, which tripled rental listings and brought 200,000 vacant units to market.
  • St Onge contrasts this with New York's 1.4% vacancy rate and 50,000 vacant apartments whose owners refuse to rent, despite 165,000 families waiting for housing. He notes St. Paul's rent control crashed building permits by 80%.

Spencer Pratt on Fixing LA: Wildfires, Homelessness, Corruption & the Fight to Take It BackMay 10

Also from this episode: (13)

Politics (11)

  • Spencer Pratt says LA Fire Chief Bobby Garcia told him the initial Palisades fire response failed because crews did not attack the fire on both sides to contain it.
  • Pratt alleges Mayor Karen Bass never called in fixed-wing air support during the Palisades fire because she was in Africa, and her deputy mayor was on house arrest.
  • Pratt claims the LADWP drained the five-million-gallon Palisades Reservoir in June 2024, removing a key wildfire defense next to his home before the January 2025 fire.
  • Pratt asserts the official homelessness count is cooked, citing a RAND Corporation study that suggests a 30% increase contrary to the city's claimed 17% decrease.
  • Pratt describes a corruption scheme where NGOs buy buildings for inflated prices with city funds, citing a Westwood property bought for $29 million six days after being on the market for $11 million.
  • Pratt states that under California's Homekey rules, the state withholds funding if housing requires residents to be drug-free, which he says enables addiction.
  • Pratt argues crime stats are down only because people have given up calling 911, and he cites an incident where police refused to arrest a man assaulting people and vandalizing cars on Wilshire Boulevard.
  • Pratt claims the city's animal services head said it was culturally insensitive to cite or ticket people without an address, leading to unchecked animal abuse on the streets.
  • Pratt claims an anonymous billionaire has offered to be a fund czar and provide $500 million to help restore Los Angeles if he is elected mayor.
  • Pratt says his campaign's viral ad, contrasting his airstream with the mansions of Bass and Raman, broke every political ad record in history.
  • Pratt states his plan to address homelessness includes building a Matt Hess-style compound with separate facilities for veterans, families, and addicts in a natural setting, not urban prisons.

Education (1)

  • Pratt says LAUSD spends $23,000 per student and teachers average $101,000 salaries, but the district ranks 170th in California with only 46% of students meeting English standards.

Culture (1)

  • Pratt argues that to revive Hollywood, the city must prioritize independent filmmakers by removing fees and safety barriers, as studio production has largely left.

Democratic Anger and Republican Revenge: Welcome to the PrimariesMay 5

  • Shane Goldmacher says the Republican Party faces a question of how bad the 2026 midterms will be, not whether they will be bad, due to President Trump's deep unpopularity, an unpopular war, and persistent voter dissatisfaction with the cost of living.
  • President Trump is conducting a 'Revenge Tour' in Republican primaries, targeting candidates who have crossed him. His singular criteria is loyalty, and he aims to install lockstep supporters in their place.
  • In Indiana, Trump is targeting more than a half dozen Republican state senators who refused his effort to redistrict the state last fall to carve up Democratic seats. He has recruited, funded, and run ads against them.
  • Reid Epstein notes Indiana Republican leaders resisted Trump's redistricting order on political and moral grounds, not wanting to be seen taking orders from Washington. Polling showed the issue was unpopular with their own voters.
  • Shane Goldmacher says millions of dollars are flooding into normally low-cost Indiana statehouse races, a highly unusual expenditure. The money is being spent to punish Republicans instead of targeting vulnerable Democrats.
  • Reid Epstein argues Trump's intervention in safe Republican primaries, like those in Indiana, sends a message to future state lawmakers and to Republicans in Congress: cross him and face a primary challenge, leaving them little wiggle room to distance themselves.
  • In Kentucky, Trump is campaigning against incumbent Congressman Thomas Massey, who agrees with Trump 90% of the time but has vocally criticized him on issues like spending and war. Trump recruited a former Navy SEAL to challenge him.
  • Shane Goldmacher says Massey sees his race as a test for whether the party will allow space to criticize Trump. His predecessors in this role, like Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger, did not have long congressional careers.
  • In Louisiana, Trump is targeting Senator Bill Cassidy for his vote to convict in the 2021 impeachment, despite Cassidy's efforts to atone and support Trump's agenda. Trump has endorsed Congresswoman Julia Letlow against him.
  • Lisa Lerer notes the risk for Trump in these primaries is expending political capital on internal revenge instead of focusing on voter concerns like cost of living or competitive general election races that will decide control of Congress.
  • In Maine's Democratic Senate primary, political unknown and oyster farmer Graham Platner, fashioning himself as a working-class candidate, led establishment pick Governor Janet Mills by 20-30 points in polls, leading her to drop out.
  • Reid Epstein says the Democratic establishment, led by Chuck Schumer, argued for the safer, vetted candidate in Maine. A growing faction in the party rejects this, wanting voters to guide its future and questioning Schumer's leadership.
  • Shane Goldmacher outlines the three-way Michigan Democratic Senate primary: progressive Abdul El-Sayed, moderate Haley Stevens (favored by Schumer's world), and state senator Mallory McMorrow, who opposes Schumer's continued leadership.
  • Lisa Lerer states Democrats must flip four Senate seats to win control, all in states Trump has won. Losing any one race, like in Maine with a potentially flawed nominee, eliminates their path to a Senate majority.
  • Reid Epstein concludes betting on Trump's anger aligning with voter anger has been a good bet in Republican primaries. Democratic voter anger at their own leadership is newer and its electoral impact is untested.
Also from this episode: (2)

Politics (2)

  • Lisa Lerer says Democrats emerged from their 2024 defeat as a party in crisis, with polls showing large swaths of voters don't like or know what the party stands for. This identity crisis is playing out in contested primaries.
  • Lisa Lerer reports Platner has a history of controversial online comments on race, gender, and sexuality, and had a Nazi insignia tattoo he later covered up. Democratic voters' fury at the establishment appears to outweigh these concerns.