Iran stalls Trump's deal as psychologists diagnose his negotiating style

Saturday, June 13, 2026 · from 3 podcasts, 9 episodes

Tucker Carlson Show Breaking Points The Daily

Iranian negotiators employ psychologists to manage Trump's erratic communication, seeing him as clinically impaired.
Trump's ceasefire gambit leaves Iran's nuclear program untouched, reversing none of his initial war goals.
Israel’s strikes continue despite Trump's public pleas, demonstrating his failure to restrain Netanyahu.

Iranian negotiators have concluded the American president cannot be negotiated with as a rational peer. On Breaking Points, Jeremy Scahill reported that Iran added senior psychologists to its team to craft messages tailored to what they perceive as Donald Trump’s clinical incapacity. They treat him as a patient, vetting every memo for how his specific psychological profile might react.

"The Iranians added senior psychologists to their negotiating team to craft messages for Trump, whom they believe is mentally ill and operating in an impaired state."
- Jeremy Scahill, Breaking Points

This diagnosis underpins the stalled diplomacy. The deal Trump spent the weekend touting, as reported by The Daily, is merely a memorandum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. It does not touch Iran’s nuclear program or its missile arsenal. The administration is trading a ceasefire for lower gas prices, having achieved zero of its original political goals after weeks of combat.

Trump’s loss of control extends to Israel. Saagar Enjeti noted on Breaking Points that Trump’s public calls for de-escalation masked private capitulation; he folded the moment Benjamin Netanyahu insisted on a retaliatory strike. This performance for the cameras has destroyed any remaining U.S. bargaining power, leaving Washington a passenger in an escalation it cannot stop. Gideon Levy, speaking on Tucker Carlson’s show, argued the era of unconditional American cover is ending, a shift he believes is months, not years away.

"Trump soft-greenlit Israeli retaliatory strikes on Iran despite public statements urging de-escalation. The private phone call with Netanyahu was calm, with Trump assenting to a limited response."
- Breaking Points

The conflict has entered a dangerous middle game. Professor Robert Pape argued on Breaking Points that Iran has moved from survival to ambition, establishing itself as a fourth regional world power extending a security belt from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea. They are betting that choking energy markets this summer will trigger a global economic crisis, strengthening their hand. As Tucker Carlson observed, despite a trillion-dollar budget, the U.S. has failed to secure the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran effectively controls a fifth of global commodities.

The remaining question is who blinks first at the gas pump. With inflation hitting 4.2% and Trump’s economic approval sinking, the domestic political cost of the war now outweighs the military cost abroad. The administration’s desperation for a face-saving exit is the only leverage Iran’s psychologists need to manage.

3 Sources:

Tucker Carlson Show Breaking Points The Daily

#War #Middle East #Diplomacy #Elections

Iran Israel Strait of Hormuz

Source Intelligence

- Deep dive into what was said in the episodes

The Tucker Carlson Show

Tucker Carlson

MAJOR SHIFT: Will Trump Split From Israel? Israeli Journalist on the Critical Situation in Iran. • Jun 12

Gideon Levy states Israel is fighting in Lebanon and Gaza without clear strategic goals, describing the Gaza war as an effort to crush Palestinian society and force displacement rather than dismantle Hamas.
Levy argues Israel's military power, enabled by unconditional U.S. support, corrupts its policy and allows for military adventures without existential risk. He asserts political victories are consistently lost despite military dominance.
Levy states 10 million people are currently displaced across the Middle East due to wars of choice, including 2 million in Gaza and 1 million in Lebanon.
Levy argues the 1948 Nakba was a successful model of expulsion for Israel's right wing, with over 600,000 Palestinians displaced and villages erased. He warns the current government views this as a precedent for Gaza.
Levy states the U.S. is a full partner in Israel's actions, citing continued unconditional military aid under presidents like Barack Obama. He argues the U.S. has never used its leverage, such as conditioning aid to stop settlements.
Levy says Israeli media, while free, largely ignores the occupation and Gaza suffering to please viewers. He claims an American in Omaha knows more about Gaza than a Tel Aviv resident.
Levy recounts a recent incident where an Israeli soldier killed a 7-month-old baby in Hebron, which he says received minimal attention in Israel. He frames it as symptomatic of a society conditioned to justify army actions.
Levy states 93% of Israelis initially supported the war with Iran, a level of unanimity he compares to North Korea. He argues Israeli mindset favors launching wars over pursuing peace agreements.
Levy says Benjamin Netanyahu's lifelong project has been a military confrontation with Iran to achieve regime change and dismantle nuclear capabilities. He argues Netanyahu pushes for continued conflict to avoid admitting this project has failed.
Levy describes his personal isolation in Israel, noting he is no longer invited on mainstream TV and has lost friends since October 7th. He attributes his political radicalization to witnessing the occupation firsthand in the late 1980s.
Levy contends the occupation's methods have been consistent since 1948, with current leaders like Itamar Ben-Gvir merely legitimizing earlier extremist ideologies like that of Meir Kahane. He rejects the narrative that Netanyahu alone corrupted a previously moral state.

Also from this episode: (2)

Diplomacy (1)

Levy predicts a major shift in U.S. policy toward Israel within months, not years. He says unconditional aid will end and future support will be conditioned on American interests, posing an unprecedented existential challenge for Israel.

Censorship (1)

Levy describes an Israeli public discourse that avoids core issues like the occupation, apartheid, and dependence on the U.S. He says the society is apathetic and lives in denial to maintain a self-image as a special case exempt from international law.

#War #Diplomacy #Israel #Middle East

BREAKING: U.S. Resumes Strikes on Iran. A Clean Exit Is Unlikely. Tucker and John Mearsheimer React. • Jun 11

Tucker Carlson states the U.S. and Israel have resumed strikes on Iran, which may escalate into a full-scale kinetic war.
Carlson claims President Trump has announced an imminent deal with Iran 38 times since March 23rd, with each announcement proving untrue.
Carlson argues Iran is winning the war by the only metric that matters: control of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global commodities flow.
Carlson contends the war reveals the limits of American military, economic, and moral power. The U.S. cannot open the Strait of Hormuz despite its military budget.
Carlson claims the U.S. has abandoned moral pretense by openly assassinating leaders like General Soleimani, bombing civilian infrastructure like a girls' school, and threatening nuclear strikes without apology.
Carlson argues the war demonstrates the U.S. lacks sovereignty, as President Trump did not decide the time and place of the conflict; Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did.
John Mearsheimer states the Israeli lobby and Israel were principal driving forces behind the U.S. decision to invade Iraq in 2003, a view he published with Stephen Walt in 2007.
Mearsheimer argues the lobby works to suppress criticism, citing canceled talks at Google and the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations after their book's release.
Mearsheimer predicts Russia will win in Ukraine, leaving it a dysfunctional rump state, while wrecking NATO and damaging the U.S.-European transatlantic relationship.
Mearsheimer warns of a serious risk of nuclear escalation in Ukraine, as Russia views Ukrainian attacks on its homeland and strategic nuclear triad as an existential threat.
Mearsheimer says Putin is a moderate by modern Russian standards, under pressure from his right flank for not waging the war in Ukraine more vigorously, and never intended to recreate the Soviet Empire.
Mearsheimer explains the unipolar moment led the U.S. to oppose any challenger like Putin, and current policy aims to knock Russia out of the ranks of great powers, a dangerously provocative goal.
Mearsheimer argues Israel has no sense of the limits of power, abetted by unconditional U.S. support and the lobby, leading to self-destructive policies like the genocide in Gaza.
Mearsheimer states the same forces pushing for war with Iran pushed for war in Ukraine, motivated by a desire to keep the U.S. military engaged globally for Israel's potential needs.
Mearsheimer and Carlson criticize dual loyalty, arguing immigrants must transfer allegiance to the U.S. and condemning Americans who lobby for foreign countries like Israel or Cuba.

#War #Diplomacy #Elections #Middle East #Russia

Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

6/12/26: Iran Worries Trump Mentally Ill, Hunter Biden Defends Platner, Antonio Reynoso, CAIR Attorney • Jun 12

Jeremy Scahill reports that the Iranians added senior psychologists to their negotiating team to craft messages for Trump, whom they believe is mentally ill and operating in an impaired state.
Scahill says Iranian negotiators told him on May 22 they had a basic memorandum of understanding worked out, with Iran's major concession being robust language explicitly renouncing pursuit of a nuclear weapon.
Scahill states Iran demands a minimum of $24 billion in frozen assets be unfrozen and repatriated before any deal, a major sticking point as Trump resists being seen as giving Iran money.
Scahill notes that when Netanyahu knew a deal was moving forward in late May, he escalated Israeli military operations in Lebanon, pushing forces north of the Litani River.
Hunter Biden defended Graham Platner on Gavin Newsom's podcast, stating he is 99.9% certain Platner is not a Nazi or racist, and argued that judging people by leaked private communications would leave few in elected office.
Biden argued the Platner controversy is about consensual leaked material, and that Platner's stated policy positions align with fighting oligarchs and supporting working-class people.
Antonio Reynoso, Brooklyn Borough President and candidate for NY-7, claims the majority of the progressive movement supports him over DSA-backed Claire Valdez, citing endorsements from the Working Families Party and major unions.
Reynoso alleges Claire Valdez broke a pledge by posting a 'red box' to guide Super PAC spending after all candidates committed not to take such funding, directing resources toward affluent, white zip codes.
Reynoso positions himself as the working-class candidate focused on affordability and abolishing ICE, contrasting his legislative record with Valdez's lack of passed bills in the state assembly.
Amy DuCorey, a CAIR Michigan attorney, states the FBI joined Michigan AG Dana Nessel's raids on pro-Palestine protesters' homes over a year ago, but the resulting federal indictments are for conspiracy to threaten using telecommunications, not vandalism.
DuCorey argues the indictment criminalizes political speech, citing tweets about organizing and escalating for divestment as the basis for federal conspiracy charges.

#Diplomacy #Iran #Middle East #Elections #Media

6/11/26: Trump Considered Nuking Iran, Trump Says He Loves Inflation, Morning Joe Vs Platner • Jun 11

Donald Trump openly threatened to seize Qargh Island, part of Iran, to take control of its oil and gas infrastructure, likening the plan to the US approach in Venezuela, a move he publicly questioned America's 'stomach' for.
Brandon Weichert argues a US invasion of Qargh Island would be catastrophic, as US forces would need to conduct amphibious landings in the highly contested Strait of Hormuz, leaving them vulnerable to massive Iranian drone and missile swarms.
Brandon Weichert claims a Sy Hersh report alleges Trump had considered using a low-yield nuclear weapon to destroy Iran's underground missile factories, which Weichert finds plausible given Trump's past, naive inquiries about using nukes.
Weichert argues that for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, prolonging the war is key to his political and legal survival, as its end would refocus attention on the October 7th intelligence failure and his corruption cases.
A Senate intelligence authorization act would permanently elevate Israeli intelligence to a 'trusted partner' level akin to the Five Eyes, forcing future US presidents to share sensitive intelligence and removing their ability to restrict it.
Trump publicly stated 'I love the inflation' and admitted 'I don't think about American's financial situation,' framing economic pain as a necessary step before a post-war boom from seized oil.
According to a report from Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan, most senior Trump advisors, including JD Vance, wanted maximum transparency on the Epstein files, but Trump himself drove the cover-up, forcing his team to fall in line.
Internal White House schemes to manage the Epstein scandal included JD Vance pitching a Tucker Carlson interview with Ghislaine Maxwell and Attorney General Pam Bondi's failed 'binder' photo-op with influencers.
The show argues the Epstein cover-up and the Iran war both contradicted Trump's core political brand as a swamp-draining outsider and anti-war candidate, making them uniquely damaging crises he cannot spin away.

Also from this episode: (4)

Business (2)

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global economic chokepoint, with 20% of the world's oil, 18% of natural gas, and one-third of agricultural supplies like urea fertilizer passing through it, all currently disrupted.
Gas price increases alone have now wiped out an entire year's worth of wage gains for Americans, eliminating any political benefit from slightly larger tax refunds.

AI & Tech (1)

The upcoming SpaceX IPO is expected to create 4,400 new millionaires and could make Elon Musk a trillionaire, starkly contrasting with the inflation squeezing average Americans.

Elections (1)

In Maine, Democratic Senate nominee Graham Platner easily won his primary despite a sexting scandal, with hosts mocking MSNBC's Mika Brzezinski for equating his consensual adult behavior with the Epstein child trafficking ring.

#War #Corruption #Macro #Energy #Diplomacy

6/11/26: Trump Floats Taking Kharg Island, Prof Marandi Says Iran Welcomes Invasion • Jun 11

President Trump posted on Truth Social that the US will 'be hitting Iran very hard tonight' and declared 'we will be taking Kharg Island and other oil infrastructure points and assume total control of their oil and gas markets'.
The United States fired 49 Tomahawk missiles at targets inside Iran overnight, some as close as 40 miles from Tehran, according to a Fox News report from the White House situation room.
Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to all shipping following the US attacks, warning any vessel movement will be targeted and denying the US claim that it controls the strait.
Iran's response to the US strikes included missile barrages targeting a US Air Force base in Jordan and sites in Kuwait and Bahrain, demonstrating its continued military capability despite US claims of victory.
Seymour Hersh reported that Trump previously floated using low-yield nuclear weapons against Iran's underground missile factories, depicting a president 'desperate not to lose' who was later talked out of nuclear escalation.
Mohammad Marandi argued the US has already lost the war, stating Iran defeated a superpower coalition over 39 days and wants to make future conflict with Iran unthinkable for American strategists.
Marandi said Iran wants any US-negotiated agreement implemented on paper before concessions, citing past US cheating under Obama, and prefers indirect negotiations via Pakistan over direct talks.
The professor stated Iran would welcome a US ground invasion, having prepared for land battle with underground missile cities and drone facilities, believing it could inflict maximum casualties on occupying forces.
A report from Homuaj Media in Tehran cited a political insider claiming a draft agreement mediated by Qatar is finalized, with renewed US violence providing Trump political cover to accept a deal he could frame as coerced.
Marandi dismissed the strategic value of Trump's rhetoric, saying his open imperial ambitions to seize Iranian territory and resources only unite the Iranian public against compromise and reveal his nineteenth-century mindset.

#War #Diplomacy #Middle East #Trade

6/10/26: US Strikes Iran, Inflation Rises As Tech Stocks Fall, Platner Wins In Maine • Jun 10

Ryan Grim reports President Trump claimed an Iranian Shahed drone lodged between two Apache pilots, forcing them to ditch in the Strait of Hormuz where they were rescued by a sea drone.
Trump launched multiple waves of strikes on Iranian radar, air defense sites, and water infrastructure after the Apache incident, which Ryan Grim argues constitutes a war crime.
Ryan Grim notes Iran responded to US strikes by hitting the US Fifth Fleet base in Bahrain and other regional bases, threatening wider retaliation if attacks continue.
Betsalem obtained video contradicting IDF claims, showing Israeli soldiers opened fire on a distant car in Hebron, killing a seven-month-old baby.
Ryan Grim criticizes the lack of arrests or disciplinary action against the IDF soldiers involved, contrasting it with protests following police killings in the US.
Graham Platner defeated Governor Janet Mills 72% to 20% in Maine's Democratic Senate primary, delivering a speech focused on economic populism and his combat veteran background.
The NRSC called Platner the most left-wing Senate nominee Maine has ever seen, listing his platform includes Medicare for All and the Green New Deal.
Ro Khanna defended Platner by arguing belief in transformational politics requires believing in people's ability to transform, referencing his own PTSD from combat.
Randall Viegas won California's 20th district Democratic primary, defeating a DCCC and Democratic Majority for Israel-backed opponent.
Tom Steyer conceded after spending roughly $200 million on his California Senate campaign, failing to make the top-two runoff.
Nancy Mace finished fifth with 12% of the vote in South Carolina's GOP gubernatorial primary, a result Ryan Grim links to her pushing for Epstein disclosure.

Also from this episode: (4)

Elections (1)

Ryan Grim highlights a Reuters poll showing only 22% of Americans approve of Trump's handling of cost of living, lower than Joe Biden's 29% approval when he left office.

Inflation (1)

May CPI inflation rose to 4.2% year-over-year, the highest rate since April 2023, driven by surging energy prices according to a BLS report.

AI & Tech (1)

Ryan Grim argues the AI buildout is driving up chip prices, reversing the decades-long trend of falling consumer electronics costs.

Energy (1)

The Solar Energy Industries Association reported a 27% year-over-year decline in solar installation, yet 91% of new US electricity capacity added in Q1 2026 was solar.

#War #Inflation #Elections #Macro #Middle East

6/9/26: US Helicopter Downed In Strait Of Hormuz, Prof Pape On Axis Of Resistance, North Korea Economy Surges • Jun 9

Trump soft-greenlit Israeli retaliatory strikes on Iran despite public statements urging de-escalation. The private phone call with Netanyahu was calm, with Trump assenting to a limited response.
Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon after the Iran exchange have killed at least eight people and wounded dozens. The IDF is ordering evacuations, including from a Christian quarter.
A US Army Apache helicopter went down near the Strait of Hormuz. The cause is unclear, and the crew was rescued by a US Navy surface water drone.
US forces fired on and disabled a Palau-flagged oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman after its crew failed to comply with directions. The crew were Indian nationals.
Robert Pape argues Iran has moved from survival to ambition, establishing itself as a fourth regional world power. It is extending a security umbrella via its 'Axis of Resistance' allies like Hezbollah and the Houthis.
North Korea sent troops as mercenaries to fight for Russia in Ukraine and supplies Russia with billions in munitions, using the revenue to fund domestic construction and industrial projects.
The US military did assist in intercepting Iranian missiles during the recent exchange, contradicting initial White House narratives that claimed no US defensive action was taken.

Also from this episode: (3)

Markets (1)

North Korea's economy is surging, fueled by partnerships with Russia and China. The country built more housing in Pyongyang last year than Los Angeles or Chicago.

Payments (1)

Pyongyang now features smartphone taxi-hailing apps, QR code payments, new pet stores, internet cafes, and Chinese electric vehicles, according to visitor accounts and satellite imagery.

Elections (1)

Trump has claimed a deal with Iran is imminent at least 37 times since the conflict began. Robert Pape traced this rhetoric back 72 days to March 29th.

#War #Diplomacy #Russia #China #Macro

6/8/26: Iran & Israel Exchange Fire, Trump Rage Quits Interview, Pentagon Warns Of Israeli Spying • Jun 8

Iran directly struck Israel for the first time after Israel attacked Lebanon, marking a strategic shift where a regional power now uses hard power to check Israeli aggression against third parties.
Trump publicly told Netanyahu not to retaliate after Iran's strike, stating 'I call the shots,' but Israel retaliated anyway, hitting Iranian petrochemical facilities in Masha'ar.
Saagar argues Trump's inability to restrain Israel proves the US either lacks the capability or willingness under Trump's policy to control Israeli actions, moving further from a deal with Iran.
Iran halted operations after Trump's call for a ceasefire but warned that renewed aggression in southern Lebanon would trigger harsher retaliation, explicitly linking peace to Israeli withdrawal.
Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon resumed minutes after Iran's ceasefire statement, prompting Hezbollah rocket fire, demonstrating the instability of Trump's diplomatic posture.
The Houthis declared a total ban on Israeli shipping in the Red Sea and launched missile barrages at Tel Aviv during the Iran-Israel exchange, signaling coordinated escalation.
Krystal notes Trump's campaign rhetoric guaranteed 'no new wars,' but he contradicted that in an interview with Kristen Welker, saying 'I never guaranteed no new wars' and justifying his military buildup.
Saagar cites a seven-page DIA memo detailing Israeli attempts to bug a Secret Service vehicle and install software on US officials' phones, which the White House publicly dismissed as 'entirely false.'
Krystal argues Israeli spying efforts are 'unhinged' and that the relationship is adversarial, noting the country would welcome US casualties to drag America back into full-scale war.
Israel's security doctrine requires absolute dominance, meaning no neighboring state like Iran or Turkey can have the capacity to check its ambitions for a 'greater Israel' project.
The US spent its limited missile stockpile defending Israel during the 39-day conflict, a depletion that will take over five years to replace, according to Pentagon concerns.
Trump's negotiating team for Iran includes Jared Kushner, Witkoff, and a hawk from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, with no direct talks, making a credible deal unlikely.

Also from this episode: (3)

Elections (2)

Trump rage-quit the NBC interview when challenged on election fraud claims, revealing a fragile temper and sensitivity to criticism as his political position deteriorates.
Trump acknowledged rising fertilizer and gas prices to farmers but framed them as a necessary cost to disarm Iran, contradicting his initial claim that farmers were doing great.

Diplomacy (1)

The Pentagon's Defense Intelligence Agency raised Israel's counterintelligence threat level to 'critical,' citing specific incidents of attempted surveillance on US officials like Steve Witkoff and Elbridge Colby.

#War #Diplomacy #Middle East #Macro

The Daily

The Iran War's Devastating Butterfly Effect • Jun 10

President Trump's weekend negotiations with Iran aimed only at a memorandum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, not at resolving core issues like Iran's nuclear or missile programs.
David Sanger notes the Strait of Hormuz closure resulted from the war and provided Iran massive economic leverage, creating the largest energy supply disruption in modern history.
The United States destroyed key Iranian nuclear sites in June 2025 using B-2 bombers and deep-penetrating bombs but did not eliminate the program, leaving 970 lbs of highly enriched uranium at Isfahan.
A key US demand in negotiations is the removal or destruction of Iran's near-bomb-grade uranium stockpile, which Iran resists citing rights under the nuclear nonproliferation treaty.
Tyler Pager reports deep divisions within Trump's base between Iran hawks demanding continued military action and those worried about economic costs and midterm election politics.
Republican critics like Senator Lindsey Graham argue any deal that reopens the strait but leaves Iran's nuclear program intact represents a failure to achieve Trump's original war objectives.
Trump's tone shifted from optimistic deal announcements to attacking critics after a senior official revealed no document existed for Iran's supreme leader to sign and no mechanism for uranium disposal was agreed.
Trump's sudden demand that Arab countries sign the Abraham Accords complicated negotiations, serving both to mollify Republican critics and project a grand Middle East remake despite many countries' lack of interest.
Monday's US strikes on Iranian missile sites, drones, and minelaying boats were described as defensive actions but highlighted the fragile ceasefire and mixed strategy of negotiating while applying force.
David Sanger compares the Iran negotiation approach to the Gaza deal, where easy issues were settled first but hard ones like disarming Hamas remain unresolved months later.
Tyler Pager says gas prices approaching $5 a gallon create urgent political pressure for Republicans ahead of midterm elections, making Strait reopening economically critical unlike other foreign conflicts.
Trump-endorsed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton won the Republican Senate primary, defeating incumbent John Cornyn and setting up a competitive general election that could affect Senate control.

#War #Elections #Middle East