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Lindsey Graham reveals Trump's plan to seize Strait of Hormuz

Monday, June 22, 2026 · from 6 podcasts
No AgendaPeter McCormack ShowThe DailyMacro VoicesBTC SessionsTucker Carlson Show
  • Senator Graham states Trump will seize the Strait of Hormuz and charge tolls if Iran violates the ceasefire.
  • Iran’s simulated irrationality doctrine solidified its power after surviving direct US confrontation.
  • The US tech bubble depends on petrodollar recycling from Gulf states, which Iran now threatens.

Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz has pushed U.S. strategy beyond diplomacy to a raw power play. On the No Agenda Show, hosts detailed a contingency plan from Senator Lindsey Graham after a four-hour briefing with Donald Trump. The plan states that if Iran violates the ceasefire, the U.S. will seize the strategic waterway by force and charge transit fees to fund the operation.

This ultimatum follows a miscalculation. According to Trita Parsi on The Tucker Carlson Show, the Trump administration mistook Iranian restraint for weakness. The regime viewed capitulation as a death sentence, and surviving a confrontation with a superpower boosted its confidence. The war provided a rallying effect, temporarily solidifying the system.

The immediate U.S. goal, per The Daily, is to reopen the strait and lower gas prices before midterm elections. Yet the underlying conflict remains. Macro Voices host Brent Johnson argues the ceasefire is a tactical reset to prevent economic collapse, not a lasting peace. Iran still intends to charge a dollar-per-barrel fee for transit, while Israel refuses any deal leaving nuclear material in Iran.

"If diplomacy fails, the U.S. will seize the Strait of Hormuz, charge tolls, expand the Abraham Accords with Saudi Arabia in 2026, and strike Iran directly."

- Lindsey Graham, No Agenda Show

This high-stakes maneuvering threatens a fragile financial loop. On BTC Sessions, Nathan Fitzsimmons detailed the petrodollar recycling that props up the U.S. tech sector. Gulf states sell oil for dollars and reinvest in U.S. equities, particularly high-burn AI companies. Iran’s ability to target Gulf desalination plants and oil transit with cheap drones risks severing that capital flow.

The Peter McCormack Show framed the conflict as a scripted transition. Guest Rupert Russell argued the war is a theater to reallocate resources and shift toward a multipolar world, benefiting American and Russian oil interests while the financial-industrial complex extracts wealth from the public.

For now, the dollar’s structural grip holds. Johnson noted that during the Iran escalation, gold fell 20% as states sold reserves for needed dollars. Washington’s pivot from multilateralism to bilateral, imperial power projection is now the operative reality.

"The Islamic Republic viewed capitulation as an immediate death sentence for their system, while war was something they believed they could survive."

- Trita Parsi, The Tucker Carlson Show

#War#Middle East#Energy#Markets
Trita ParsiIranIsraelSaudi ArabiaStrait of Hormuz

Source Intelligence

- Deep dive into what was said in the episodes

No Agenda Show
No Agenda Show

Adam Curry

1879 - "Grace and Assurance" • Jun 21

  • Adam Curry and John Dvorak analyze NPR and other clips reporting Iran's threat to close the Strait of Hormuz due to Israeli attacks in Lebanon, and U.S.-Iran ceasefire violations.
  • The hosts discuss President Trump and Vice President Vance using tough language against Israel, with Vance questioning Israel's strategy of killing to solve security problems.
  • Curry and Dvorak critique media commentary framing Trump as tired and isolated at the G7 summit, contrasting him with younger leaders like Macron.
  • Susan Rice argues the Iran MOU is a 'horrific surrender' granting Iran oil sales, frozen assets, and future tolls on the Strait of Hormuz, contrasting it with the Obama-era JCPOA.
  • Lindsey Graham outlines a Trump strategy: if diplomacy fails, the U.S. will seize the Strait of Hormuz, charge tolls, expand the Abraham Accords with Saudi Arabia in 2026, and strike Iran directly.
  • Dvorak speculates Netanyahu may prolong conflict to maintain political power as a wartime leader, comparing it to George Bush's use of terror alerts.
  • Tulsi Gabbard released documents on her final day as DNI alleging Fauci funded gain-of-function research at Wuhan, lied to Congress, and covered up wrongdoing.
  • Curry highlights a Washington Post hit piece on Gabbard published immediately after her departure, linking it to intelligence community protection of mRNA vaccine programs.
  • Robert Malone claims mRNA technology was a CIA program pushed by DARPA and In-Q-Tel, explaining why Gabbard's Fauci report faces suppression.
  • CNN reports over 150 flu cases at Joint Base San Antonio weeks after Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ended mandatory flu vaccines, implying correlation.
  • Minority contractors claim the Obama Presidential Center owes them millions, with total costs ballooning from $300 million to over $850 million.
  • President Trump told Axios he sees no limits to his power and claims the Iran deal represents unconditional surrender.
  • CNN criticizes acting DNI Bill Pulte for requesting employee lists and asking about security details, with CIA veteran John Seifer calling him unserious.
Also from this episode: (6)

Culture (1)

  • Adam Curry notes Father's Day is celebrated on June 21st in 86 countries, but Catholic Europe observes it on March 19th and Germany ties it to Ascension.

War (1)

  • Rand Corporation analyst Scott Savitz estimates clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz could take weeks or months, with full traffic resuming within weeks.

Business (1)

  • Adam Curry cites California's high fuel prices due to special fuel blends and refinery policies, noting Texas gasoline is around $4.20 while California is $2 more per gallon.

Health (1)

  • The Ebola outbreak in Congo has at least 900 cases and 250 deaths, with contact tracing at only 4,000 against a target of 33,000.

AI & Tech (2)

  • CNBC reports tech giants plan $750 billion in AI infrastructure spending this year, driving them to raise debt as free cash flow hits dot-com era lows.
  • Dvorak explains AI models like Claude can degrade if corrected; he advises resetting context entirely rather than pointing out errors.
#War#Diplomacy#Middle East#Trade#Censorship
The Peter McCormack Show
The Peter McCormack Show

Peter McCormack

#186 - Rupert Russell - The Global Game of Money & Power • Jun 21

  • Rupert Russell asserts transnational capital controls power and uses theatrical geopolitical events to manage a transition to a multipolar world.
  • Russell claims the US military-industrial complex, Israel, and factions within Iran’s IRGC previously cooperated on weapons and drug trafficking via operations like Iran-Contra.
  • Russell explains the current Iran conflict as a scripted theater between factions to end strategic tension and reallocate resources, with key events like closing the Strait of Hormuz benefiting American and Russian oil interests.
  • Russell says the people who truly rule the world are not in the Epstein files but control their release to purge liabilities and steer geopolitical transitions.
  • Russell describes the IRGC not as ideologically driven but as an asset management company running banking, weapons trafficking, and a 'resistance economy' built on strategic tension.
  • Russell identifies three primary factions of power: the Financial Industrial Complex (FIC), Military-Industrial Complex (MIC), and Technical Industrial Complex (TIC) controlling algorithms and surveillance.
  • Russell argues the current system is designed to create psychological trauma, civil unrest, and financial dependency to justify a technocratic surveillance state.
  • Russell predicts the Iran conflict will conclude by April with a Trump-Xi summit, resulting in regime changes, sanctions relief, and major investment deals in Iran and Syria.
  • Russell states that gold price stability during oil price spikes indicates insiders know the Iran war is time-limited and scripted, not a genuine forever war.
Also from this episode: (6)

Protocol (2)

  • Russell says the only viable financial strategy for individuals is self-custody of hard assets and a 10-year sovereign plan to escape inflation and potential asset confiscation.
  • Russell finds Bitcoin's governance structure compelling because its rules are fixed and accountable to code, unlike debt-based systems where money creation lacks accountability.

Society (3)

  • Russell describes his personal shift away from equity investments and financial systems, viewing them as supporting a harmful 'make-and-take' terrorism, towards community-focused real-world projects.
  • Russell argues GDP is a damaging metric that ignores happiness and fosters inequality, contrasting it with Bhutan's Gross Happiness Index.
  • Russell asserts that Western society's deep psychological trauma stems from realizing its civilizing ideology was a lie and being deliberately weakened for control via dependency and addiction.

Religion (1)

  • Russell states that the preserved Quran, not institutional Islam, offers a sustainable map for human life and governance, having guided his own ethical and financial understanding.
#Macro#Banking#Markets#Energy
The Daily
The Daily

Did Iran Come Out on Top in the Peace Deal? • Jun 19

  • Tyler Pager describes Republican divisions, with Iran hawks like Lindsey Graham fearing a deal legitimizes Iranian nuclear capability, while others oppose the war's economic costs.
  • Tyler Pager notes a Sunday White House briefing revealed no finalized deal, unclear disposal method for enriched uranium, and difficulty reaching Iran's supreme leader in hiding.
  • David Sanger contextualizes the conflict as a 47-year struggle, with Iran viewing Trump's 2.5-year term as a window to stall and preserve nuclear capability for the next administration.
  • Tyler Pager states Republicans fear gas prices exceeding $5 a gallon without a Strait reopening, a dangerous economic pressure point for the upcoming midterm elections.
  • David Sanger compares the potential Iran deal to the Gaza agreement, where initial easy terms were settled but hard issues like Hamas disarmament remain unresolved months later.
  • David Sanger notes President Trump's shifting objectives, from demanding Iran's unconditional surrender 11 weeks ago to now negotiating a return to the pre-war status quo.
  • Trump's Monday demand for universal adoption of the Abraham Accords complicated Arab-mediated Iran talks, as countries like Saudi Arabia and Egypt have no interest.
  • Ken Paxton won the Texas Republican Senate primary, defeating incumbent John Cornyn, after receiving Trump's endorsement despite Cornyn calling him an embarrassment.
Also from this episode: (4)

Iran (4)

  • David Sanger clarifies the 'deal' refers to a memorandum of understanding to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a process taking 30 days, with substantive issues like Iran's nuclear program negotiated later over 60 days.
  • David Sanger states Iran discovered immense economic leverage by closing the Strait of Hormuz, causing the largest energy supply disruption in modern history.
  • David Sanger details the June 2025 US bombing of three Iranian nuclear sites, including one in Isfahan containing 970 pounds of near-bomb-grade enriched uranium.
  • David Sanger argues the weekend military strikes targeted Iranian missile sites, drones, and mine-laying boats, a 'self-defense action' to remind Iran of US force during delicate negotiations.
#War#Elections#Diplomacy#Middle East#Iran
Macro Voices
Macro Voices

MacroVoices #537 Brent Johnson: There’s No Turning Back • Jun 18

  • Johnson frames the U.S. strategic shift from a multilateral 'rules-based order' to a bilateral 'America First' approach as a move from a republic to an empire, driven by deglobalization.
  • Johnson contends de-dollarization is a myth, citing sustained high dollar usage in FX turnover, cross-border lending, and trade invoicing despite reserve share decline against gold.
  • Johnson argues the U.S. weaponizes the dollar, citing Treasury Secretary Bessant's admission of creating a dollar shortage in Iran to cause currency collapse and civil unrest.
  • Johnson notes that 99% of global stablecoins are dollar-denominated, reflecting market choice and transferring monetary sovereignty from local governments to Washington.
  • Townside observes China's large commodity stockpiles, particularly oil, allowed it to reduce imports and buffer global prices during the Strait closure, showcasing its market power.
  • Johnson sees the Iran conflict pause as a U.S. tactic to pressure the global system, enabling better terms in long-term energy deals and testing Russian and Chinese support for Iran.
Also from this episode: (8)

War (2)

  • Johnson believes the Iran conflict pause is temporary, lasting weeks or months, and expects a return to conflict because he doubts all sides will uphold their side of the agreement.
  • Townsend notes the announced peace deal's terms include a toll-free Strait for 60 days, then Iran resumes collecting a $1 per barrel 'service fee,' effectively a permanent toll booth.

Trade (1)

  • Johnson argues supply chain disruptions from the Strait closure will manifest in late 2026 or early 2027, impacting fertilizer and chemical availability during planting season.

Business (4)

  • Johnson sees major investment opportunities in food, aviation MRO, national defense, and stablecoins due to shifting global dynamics like supply disruptions and rearming.
  • Szna proposes a trade on delayed agricultural stress using a Jan 2027 DBA bull call spread (buy $27 call, sell $30 call) for a $0.90 debit, targeting food price impacts in Q4/Q1 2027.
  • Townsend expects oil to retrace higher, citing a 30-day+ restart timeline for Strait traffic, depleted SPR levels since 1983, and China's potential to buffer but not eliminate shortages.
  • Szna notes crude oil's 20% decline from $90 to $73 and gold's 4.5% rally to $4321 following the perceived Iran peace deal, driven by forced liquidation flows.

Macro (1)

  • Johnson explains the 'dual carry trade' burden: nations face conflicting local and dollar-based carry trades, creating dollar funding crises when the dollar index moves outside a stable 'band.'
#Macro#Markets#Energy
BTC Sessions
BTC Sessions

US Iran Failure, Bitcoin Bear Market Over, Yield Curve Control | Doomberg & Lavish • Jun 16

  • Senator Cynthia Lummis proposes a $300 de minimis exemption for capital gains on Bitcoin transactions, aiming to normalize its use as money and bypass enforcement.
  • Nathan Fitzsimmons prioritizes grassroots Bitcoin adoption over corporate treasury buys, arguing teaching people to use Bitcoin as money is more revolutionary than a Chinese EV company purchasing $1B.
  • Canada euthanized 16,000 people in 2021, surpassing the 7,600 dogs euthanized, reaching a milestone of 100,000 state-administered deaths.
  • The BC Supreme Court ruled Aboriginal title is a senior interest that can burden fee simple land titles, potentially invalidating or imposing compensation on current property owners in metro Vancouver.
  • The US House voted 357-65 to block the release of congressional sexual misconduct reports, demonstrating bipartisan agreement to conceal internal wrongdoing.
Also from this episode: (9)

War (5)

  • Iran could cripple GCC nations by attacking desalination plants, which supply 60% of their water, and disrupt food imports by closing the Strait of Hormuz, which supplies 90% of GCC food.
  • The Gulf states recycle petrodollars into US investments, supporting the stock market and AI bubble. If this capital flow stops due to war, the AI bubble and US economy could collapse.
  • Nathan Fitzsimmons argues closing the Strait of Hormuz would cut 450 million barrels of oil per month, exceeding the entire US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, causing a historic supply shock.
  • LNG shipping rates surged 650% from $40,000 to $300,000 per day due to Middle East tensions, signaling rising energy costs will drive inflation across all goods.
  • Nathan Fitzsimmons speculates the US military operation in Venezuela secured oil resources and denied China access, providing a strategic reserve ahead of the Iran conflict.

BTC Markets (1)

  • Nathan Fitzsimmons calls the Bitcoin bear market bottom, predicting a grind upwards to six figures within six months, driven by oversold conditions and potential fiscal injections.

Protocol (2)

  • Blockstream deployed post-quantum signature verification on the Liquid Network mainnet, marking the first use of such cryptography on a Bitcoin sidechain.
  • Nathan Fitzsimmons dismisses quantum threats to Bitcoin as nihilistic fud, noting standard non-reused addresses are hardened and the protocol can adapt via proposals like BIP 360.

Business (1)

  • 45,400 businesses closed in Canada in November 2023, continuing a trend of economic decline.
#BTC Markets#Macro#AI Infrastructure#Energy#Regulation
The Tucker Carlson Show
The Tucker Carlson Show

Tucker Carlson

The Key Points of Trump’s Iran Peace Deal, Israel’s Nightmare Scenario and What to Expect Next • Jun 15

  • Iran’s refusal to engage Trump directly before the war reinforced his perception of their weakness, as Trump views direct negotiation as a sign of strength.
  • Iran employs ‘simulated irrationality’ as a deliberate policy to appear unpredictable, a strategy derived from their historical vulnerability to British manipulation in the 1800s.
  • Iran needs the deal for sanctions relief; their economy suffered $300 billion in war damage. Sanctions, like those on Iraq, destroy societal fabric by collapsing economic incentives.
  • Under Saddam Hussein, sanctions reduced Iraq’s economy to $16 billion total, causing a collapse in literacy and education, particularly for girls.
  • Israeli officials in 2004 expressed despair that younger generations no longer believed in peace, seeing perpetual warfare as the only normal state for Israel.
  • Israel’s security doctrine assumes all neighbors have intent to destroy it, so it focuses solely on capability, aiming for perpetual military hegemony sustained by limitless U.S. support.
  • The Islamic Republic’s support base is only 15-20% of Iran’s population, but the war boosted their confidence, making the system temporarily stronger.
  • Israeli intelligence penetration of Iran was extensive pre-war, using flipped agents, but that capability vanished during the conflict, suggesting assets were expended or neutralized.
  • Three consecutive Mossad heads and Ehud Barak have stated Iran is not an existential threat to Israel, contradicting the public talking point used to mobilize U.S. action.
  • The Tom Cotton amendment mandates U.S. intelligence sharing with Israel, requiring presidential intervention to stop it, structurally embedding U.S. support despite waning public approval.
  • Think tanks in Washington operate with zero transparency on foreign government and weapons industry funding, corrupting policy advice without disclosure.
  • The Quincy Institute, co-founded by Trita Parsi and Andrew Bacevich, aims to bridge anti-war left and right traditions, challenging the neoliberal-neocon consensus on foreign policy.
Also from this episode: (8)

Diplomacy (3)

  • Trump’s emerging peace deal with Iran includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, lifting the U.S. blockade, and a staged release of Iran’s own frozen funds via GCC intermediaries.
  • A regional ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah is a prerequisite for the deal, requiring the U.S. to constrain Israel and Iran to constrain Hezbollah. Israeli attacks on Beirut were a deliberate sabotage attempt.
  • Trump misread Iran, believing they feared war more than surrender. The Iranian system fears capitulation far more, viewing surrender as the end of the Islamic Republic.

Corruption (1)

  • Iran had $120-150 billion frozen in international banks due to U.S. sanctions, a status since 2018. They seek an initial release of roughly 8-10% of this sum.

History (1)

  • The 2015 Obama settlement of $1.7 billion to Iran was for undelivered military equipment purchased by the Shah in 1977, not frozen assets, necessitating a cash transfer due to banking sanctions.

Middle East (2)

  • Saudi Arabia shifted to diplomacy with Iran after Trump refused to intervene in 2019, proving that removing unconditional U.S. support can lead to regional stability.
  • Post-war, the U.S. will likely not rebuild its 19 Middle Eastern bases; GCC states may buy more American weapons but not host bases, which served as attack magnets not deterrents.

Israel (1)

  • Israeli fear of abandonment drives opposition to U.S.-Iran diplomacy; they believe American friendship with Iran would lead to U.S. withdrawal, leaving Israel isolated.
#War#Diplomacy#Trade#Middle East

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