Price:

Trump waives Russian fuel sanctions as price relief lags

Oct 21, 2026Summary from 3 podcasts.
  • Trump waived sanctions on Russian diesel to curb high fuel prices, but domestic pump relief remained minimal.
  • White House envoys offered Moscow corporate deals before peace, drawing fierce backlash from Ukraine and European allies.
  • Friction escalated battlefield tensions, with Ukraine reporting satellite throttling and intelligence delays amid fresh Russian strikes.

Surging fuel costs driven by conflict in Iran pushed U.S. diesel above $6 a gallon, creating political pressure ahead of the midterm elections. In response, President Donald Trump temporarily waived sanctions on Russian diesel under the Lindsey Graham sanctions bill and announced an agreement for Moscow to supply 300,000 tons of diesel immediately, with 500,000 more tons scheduled for November.

The move delivered negligible relief for American consumers, with pump prices dipping just four cents over the weekend. Analysts noted that 300,000 tons represents less than a single day of U.S. consumption, while damaged Russian refining facilities severely limit Moscow's export capacity.

"Even 1 million tonnes a month would amount to less than 1% of global demand."

Edward Carr, The Intelligence

The transaction marks a shift toward dangling business opportunities before securing peace in Ukraine. Envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff offered economic incentives to Moscow, including negotiations by an investor group led by Todd Boehly to buy international assets of Russia’s oil giant Lukoil. While White House officials say envoys gain no direct profits, allies saw the move as weakening pressure on Moscow.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky condemned the arrangement as direct funding for Russia’s military campaign. Friction quickly spread to the battlefield: after Ukraine resumed strikes on Russian refineries following a brief three-day pause, Kyiv reported speed throttling on SpaceX's Starshield satellite network and intermittent delays in U.S. early-warning intelligence.

"So far, the transactional approach has failed to change Putin's calculus."

Anton Trojanovsky, The Daily

Rather than compromising, Moscow continued heavy bombardments against Ukrainian power plants and heating infrastructure ahead of winter. With U.S. leverage over both sides constrained and air defense stockpiles stretched thin, the fuel deal has yielded little domestic relief while deepening a rift between Washington and Kyiv.

Source Intelligence

- Deep dive into what was said in the episodes

10/19/26: Oil Prices Spike, Devastating JD Townhall, Trump Endorses Bibi, Israeli Settlers Assault Diplomats • Oct 19

  • The host says Trump used powers from the Lindsey Graham sanctions bill to waive sanctions on Russia, despite the bill’s purpose of enabling them. The host links the move to Trump’s effort to limit oil prices and argues that collapsing trade could make consumer goods more expensive.
Also discussed on this episode: (17)

Energy (3)

  • The host says attacks on oil-related vessels have spread beyond the Strait of Hormuz, including an oil tanker hit by an RPG and a tugboat struck by two projectiles. Brett Erickson estimates 3 to 7 vessels are being hit daily despite a 96-hour gap in UKMTO reports of normal vessels struck.
  • Brent crude reached $110 per barrel and remained around $108 to $109; U.S. gasoline was about $4.30 per gallon and diesel $6.31. The host says diesel was roughly $0.20 below its record high.
  • Vance defended rising gas prices by blaming lost refining capacity under Biden, but acknowledged prices would not fall once the Iran conflict ends. The co-host argues voters will connect the increase to the war, while the hosts say Vance cannot easily separate himself from an administration he serves.

War (3)

  • The co-host argues that U.S. officials and shipping interests have incentives to suppress strike reports, limiting market reaction and insurance costs. The host links the missing reports to a broader effort to conceal damage to U.S. bases and manage the war’s economic fallout.
  • The State Department warned Americans in the Middle East about flight disruptions, airspace closures, and possible attacks on U.S.-linked sites worldwide. The warning cited Houthi attacks on Saudi civilian airports and the risk that hostilities could escalate beyond the immediate area.
  • At a CBS town hall, Joey, whose wife Master Sergeant Nicole Amer died in an Iranian drone strike, asked Vance about leadership failures. Vance said he had not heard of the allegations; an AP investigation had reported warnings about the site’s vulnerability and delayed or inadequate care for wounded soldiers.

Diplomacy (2)

  • Egyptian defense officials pledged support for Saudi Arabia after Houthi attacks, while Egypt’s lawmakers must authorize any troop deployment. The host says Egypt may provide defensive or missile support rather than strike Yemen directly; the co-host argues U.S. and Saudi aid helped draw Egypt in.
  • The co-host connects the proposed U.S.-Russia-China summit on Ukraine to a wider web of proxy conflicts and weakening alliances, while arguing that “sleepwalking” understates deliberate policy choices. The host says nuclear deterrence makes future great-power conflict more likely to take proxy and economic forms than direct invasions.

Middle East (3)

  • The co-host says Saudi Arabia’s security crisis threatens its investment and sports-washing plans, including its upcoming “Davos in the Desert” event. The host says financial-district workers have shifted home as the Saudi wealth fund, stock exchange, and financial institutions face potential asymmetric attacks.
  • Ghalibaf announced a Persian Gulf Data Authority and warned against financing companies that support attacks on Iran. The host read the move as a possible restriction on regional business; the co-host understood it as a threat to strike data centers and communications infrastructure.
  • A Wall Street Journal report says Iranian support helped the Houthis improve targeting, missiles, drones, intelligence, and training; the Houthis now control coastline near Bab al-Mandeb. The host argues the campaign lets Iran disrupt Gulf rivals and raise oil prices without direct U.S. attacks.

Corruption (1)

  • Vance said he had seen no evidence Trump enriched himself in office, despite questions about crypto, tax scrutiny, and alleged White House access-selling. The hosts point to Trump’s rising wealth, family business interests, and pardons, and argue Vance’s loyalty to Trump prevents a credible response.

AI Infrastructure (1)

  • A resident told Vance that a data center’s constant noise made outdoor space and open windows unusable; Vance acknowledged that data centers can harm nearby communities. The host argues Vance’s ties to AI and technology donors create pressure to support the industry despite its local costs.

Israel (4)

  • Trump endorsed Netanyahu for reelection and warned that the United States would have to handle Iran if Israel chose another leader. The co-host reads the endorsement as leverage, but says Israel’s coalition system could still block a clear result and that Netanyahu’s defeat would not end the country’s broader policies.
  • The co-host argues Israel’s hard-line security posture extends beyond Netanyahu, citing rival Gadi Eisenkot’s Dahiya Doctrine and the absence of major candidates committed to a two-state solution. Israel Katz said strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure could set Iran back decades, reinforcing fears of escalation.
  • Israeli settlers severely injured Washington Post photographer Heidi Levine in the West Bank; the co-host cited broken fingers, a rib, vertebrae, and lacerations. Israeli officials initially questioned the account, while Huckabee and Rubio called for investigation; Israeli authorities later reported arrests.
  • European diplomats were also beaten by settlers in the West Bank, prompting arrests under an Israeli operation called Olive Leaf. The co-host argues that attacks on foreign officials and journalists show settlers expect impunity, and that Palestinians face still less scrutiny when violence is not filmed.

Inside Putin’s Plan to Cripple Ukraine This Winter • Oct 19

  • Natalie Kitroeff said Trump made a diesel deal with Putin worth billions of dollars and waived new sanctions on Russia. Constant Méheut described the resulting public rift with Zelensky as one of the worst in U.S.-Ukraine relations since the war began.
  • Constant Méheut said Russia has intensified attacks on Ukrainian cities with overnight barrages of dozens of missiles and hundreds of drones. More than 100 civilians were killed in Ukraine during October’s first week, among the highest monthly-opening tolls since the war began.
  • Constant Méheut said Patriot systems are Ukraine’s only reliable defense against Russian ballistic missiles, and supplies are scarce as other conflicts compete for interceptors. Ukraine’s interception rate fell from 30 to 40 percent earlier in the year to about 10 percent at best.
  • Constant Méheut said Russia introduced jet-powered drones over the summer that fly at about 370 miles per hour, roughly three times faster than older propeller-driven models. Ukraine is developing AI-guided jet-powered interceptors, but the technology is not ready.
  • Constant Méheut said a Russian war plan obtained by Ukraine and shared with European partners calls for strikes on power plants, substations, hydroelectric facilities, and heating infrastructure. The plan names Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odesa and aims to cut electricity and heating supplies by as much as 90 percent.
  • Constant Méheut said Ukraine fears disruptions to Starshield, the military satellite internet service it uses through a Pentagon contract for front-line vehicles and drones. Ukrainian officials blamed SpaceX for speed restrictions, while Elon Musk and Trump denied that SpaceX or the White House caused them.
  • Constant Méheut said Ukraine reported missing U.S. early warnings before two ballistic missile attacks, leaving less time to prepare air defenses and reach shelters. Zelensky believed intelligence sharing had been deliberately curtailed; the Trump administration denied that intelligence had stopped flowing.
  • Constant Méheut said Ukraine stopped strikes on Russian oil refineries for three days after a U.S. request, expecting Russia to halt attacks on Ukrainian energy sites in return. Russia did not stop, and Ukraine resumed refinery strikes, viewing them as its remaining leverage.
  • Constant Méheut said years of attacks have weakened Ukraine’s power grid, making new strikes more damaging, while attacks on steel plants and southern export routes threaten jobs, trade, government revenue, and funding for the war effort.
  • Constant Méheut said Ukrainians have endured four winters of war and are preparing supplies and developing interceptors, so he did not expect the bombing campaign alone to force capitulation. He warned that a weakened Ukraine could face greater pressure to make concessions in negotiations.
Also discussed on this episode: (4)

War (2)

  • Constant Méheut said the war’s geography has shifted: Ukrainian forces have halted Russian advances in some areas and counterattacked, while cities far behind the front, including Kyiv and Odesa, face increasingly dangerous bombardments.
  • Constant Méheut described Kyiv residents living with air-raid alerts that can last much of the day, hearing drones overhead and sheltering in subway stations. He said the attacks have made civilian life feel dangerous even far from the front.

Europe (1)

  • Anti-government protests in France escalated into major riots, damaging public buildings including a 19th-century city hall in Limoges that was largely destroyed by fire. Macron called for order and calm and promised to seek lower gas prices without offering concrete concessions.

Elections (1)

  • Trump press secretary Katie Zachariah left the job after five days, following a scripted first briefing and scrutiny over whether she had presented herself as a lawyer despite never passing the bar exam. Trump said she might continue working for him in another role.

The U.S. Tried to Choke Russia’s Energy Market. Then It Made a Diesel Deal. • Oct 14

  • Donald Trump announced that Russia would immediately supply 300,000 tons of diesel, another 500,000 tons in November, and potentially millions more; the Treasury temporarily suspended sanctions on Russian diesel purchases.
  • Anton Trojanovsky says Trump’s envoys began dangling business deals in 2025 to persuade Putin to end the war, but Putin prioritizes territory, control over Ukraine, and Russia’s relationship with NATO.
  • Anton says the Iran war, which began in February, pushed global energy prices higher while approaching midterm elections increased the administration’s incentive to show it was lowering fuel costs for Americans.
  • Ukrainian strikes reportedly knocked out about half of Russia’s oil-refining capacity, contributing to fuel lines and a Russian diesel export ban; Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure continued, including a strike that killed at least 33 people.
  • Anton says the Trump administration pressed Ukraine to stop hitting Russian refineries, while Ukraine offered to halt those strikes only if Russia also stopped attacking Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
  • Anton says the diesel decision startled Ukraine and European officials, who saw it as a weakening of sanctions; Europe still buys Russian liquefied natural gas, while Slovakia and Hungary continue buying Russian oil.
  • The EU plans to end Russian gas imports next year, a sharp contrast with Washington’s diesel move; Anton says the U.S. had also maintained Biden-era support for Ukraine and recently expanded sanctions on Russian energy.
  • Anton says the diesel deal had no known Russian concession in return, giving Putin a sanctions opening while Russia continued rejecting negotiations and striking Ukraine; Trump’s anger has focused on Zelensky, though U.S. intelligence support continues.
  • Anton says Trump has restored high-level contact with Putin, including regular calls and envoy visits, but Russia’s war has escalated; a future settlement may require direct Russia-Ukraine negotiations because U.S. leverage over both sides is limited.
  • Anton says sanctions remain a potential bargaining tool, but the administration may use them incrementally; U.S. policy could shift after elections, while political movements in Germany, France, and the UK are pressing for closer ties with Russia.
  • Anton warns that Ukraine faces a dangerous winter with depleted missile defenses and continued Russian attacks on infrastructure, while the diesel and sanctions negotiations unfold without an end to the war in sight.
Also discussed on this episode: (5)

Energy (2)

  • The initial 300,000 tons would add less than a day of U.S. diesel consumption, and AAA prices showed diesel at $6.28 per gallon on Tuesday, down from $6.32 a week earlier.
  • A potential sale of Lukoil’s international assets could involve billions of dollars in refineries, oil fields, and gas stations; Anton reports an investor group led by Todd Boehly and including Middle Eastern partners with ties to Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff.

Corruption (1)

  • Kimberly Guilfoyle resigned as U.S. ambassador to Greece after the White House asked her to step down; a Republican donor alleged she requested $100,000 for a credit-card bill before her Senate confirmation hearing.

Health (1)

  • Pope Leo XIV was diagnosed with lung cancer and had the lower lobe of his right lung removed; the Vatican said the surgery succeeded without complications but did not say whether further treatment was planned.

Education (1)

  • Cornell banned fraternity-house parties for the rest of the academic year after a student alleged gang rape in October 2024; the university also plans to add experienced sexual-assault investigators to work with campus police.

Kicking Kyiv: Trump’s doubtful deals • Oct 14

  • Edward Carr says Russia’s promised diesel exports may not materialize: damaged refineries limit production, and Russia already exports as much as it can illicitly. Even 1 million tonnes a month would amount to less than 1% of global demand.
  • Edward Carr argues Trump’s diesel announcement is an electoral gambit ahead of the midterms: diesel costs more than $6 a gallon, especially hurting farming and swing states. Carr says the Iran war, which has shut refining capacity, is a larger cause of high prices.
  • Edward Carr describes Trump’s proposed energy ceasefire as sharply asymmetric: Russia has many refineries, while Ukraine has one, and Russia has already struck it. A pause in Ukrainian refinery attacks would ease pressure on Putin and help Russia present its sanctioned exports as accepted by America.
  • Edward Carr says Zelensky is trying to avoid either openly defying Trump or giving in, while highlighting Russian attacks and waiting for electoral pressure to pass. Carr says Putin may also be dangling cooperation on Iran to win Trump’s favor.
  • Edward Carr says Ukraine still relies on American weapons and intelligence for missile defense and strikes on Russian targets. He reports that Ukrainians believe SpaceX has restricted their Starlink access, which could disrupt control of fast-moving drones.
Also discussed on this episode: (9)

Education (1)

  • Kira Huyu says the Cockroach Janta Party grew from a viral satirical response to the chief justice calling unemployed young people “cockroaches.” Its July protest targeted exam-paper leaks, education corruption and poor job prospects, and helped prompt the education minister to resign.

Elections (1)

  • Kira Huyu reports that protesters want Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar to resign, alleging he is helping rig votes through voter-list revisions. A 2023 law lets the prime minister effectively choose the commissioner; the government, BJP and election commission deny the allegations.

Censorship (1)

  • Kira Huyu describes Delhi’s crackdown as a sweeping effort to prevent and break up protests: borders were sealed, central areas lost internet for 24 hours, and police detained organizers. After the Supreme Court urged restraint, tens of thousands rallied with opposition parties; young protesters vowed to return.

Society (1)

  • Joel Budd says singing carries history and shared values, from ancient epics to Protestant hymns and pro-democracy folk songs. Sasha Langton-Gilks argues that nearly everyone can sing and that group singing can build closeness; Budd also cites benefits for babies and parents.

Psychology (1)

  • Joel Budd says singing is difficult because technique takes practice, voices are vulnerable to illness, hormones and ageing, and many people find solo singing in public frightening. He notes that group singing can also discourage beginners when choirs respond harshly to wrong notes.

Labor (1)

  • Deel’s advertisement says Revolut manages more than 450 employment contracts across 26 countries without creating local entities, while KLM pays 189 employees across 12 countries through one system.

Banking (1)

  • The Barclays advertisement promotes The Flip Side as debates between two research analysts on business and economic issues, offering listeners competing perspectives.

Agents (1)

  • Superhuman’s advertisement says its AI assistant works inside tools such as Gmail and Slack to help draft messages and interpret email threads, rather than requiring users to open a separate tool.

Coding (1)

  • IONOS’s advertisement says users can create a business website, including an online menu, by describing what they need, with the site going live the same day and no developer or code required. It advertises .com domains starting at $1 and says it has operated for 23 years.