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Global energy rationing hits Asia as US allies bypass Washington

Tuesday, April 7, 2026 · from 3 podcasts
TFTC: A Bitcoin PodcastBreaking Points with Krys…Peter St Onge Podcast
  • Thailand banned A/C below 79°F, India rationed natural gas for cremations, and Myanmar mandated every-other-day driving.
  • US allies Japan and France negotiated directly with Iran to keep oil flowing, undercutting American sanctions.
  • The U.S., insulated as a net exporter, faces domestic fuel surcharges as diesel hits $8 a gallon.

While political rhetoric swirls, physical oil flows dictate reality. Four million barrels of oil exited the Strait of Hormuz last Thursday, the largest outflow since the conflict began. Beneath the surface of sanctions, nations are bypassing Washington: Japan and France are unfreezing Iranian assets to ensure their tankers keep moving, effectively recognizing Iranian control of the chokepoint. As Saagar Enjeti noted on Breaking Points, the 80-year-old bargain of the U.S. Navy guaranteeing free flow of commerce is dead.

The consequence is severe energy rationing across Asia, a physical shortage masked as an inflation story. Peter St Onge reports Thailand banned air conditioning below 79 degrees. India restricted natural gas for cremations, forcing a return to firewood. Myanmar mandated every-other-day driving based on license plates, while Pakistan and the Philippines moved to four-day workweeks to keep lights on. These aren't discretionary cuts; they are cuts to cooking, heating, and factory output.

Marty Bent (host), TFTC:

- Headlines don't move oil; backchannels do.

- Political rhetoric is currently a 'superposition of hot takes' where contradictory stories coexist.

The U.S. remains insulated, having doubled domestic oil and gas production since the 1970s to become the world's largest exporter. Europe and Asia face the brunt: Europe imports 80% of its petroleum and nearly all its natural gas. China covers only 25% of its oil use. But domestic insulation has limits. In San Francisco, diesel hit $8 a gallon. Amazon implemented a 3.5% fuel surcharge on sellers, a cost that will land on consumers.

The crisis is exposing hollow political postures. Iran isn't closing the strait; it's running a sophisticated toll booth, charging fees and enjoying de facto sanctions relief. This allows some oil to flow, preventing total global collapse while maintaining a stranglehold. As Enjeti predicts, it will force a total normalization of the Russia-Ukraine conflict within a year as Europe prioritizes diesel over security alliances. The rules-based order is buckling under the weight of physical need.

EnergyTradeMarkets

By the Numbers

  • 4 million barrelsOil exiting Strait of Hormuzmetric
  • 18 million metric tonsAnnual LNG production from Texas joint venturemetric
  • OctoberAlberta secession referendum votemetric
  • DecemberShrinks Plus paper releasemetric
  • MarchShrimps proposal iterationmetric
  • $108Brent crude price per barrelmetric

Entities Mentioned

ApolloProduct
BlackstoneCompany
CENTCOMConcept
CoinbaseCompany
ExxonConcept
Google AntigravityProduct

Source Intelligence

What each podcast actually said

TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast
TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast

Marty Bent

Ten31 Timestamp: Schrödinger's Regime Change • Apr 6

  • The Trump administration appears to be generating contradictory policy signals hourly, creating a 'Leroy Jenkins' atmosphere of chaotic uncertainty for markets that makes tracking headlines feel pointless.
  • Approximately 4 million barrels of oil exited the Strait of Hormuz last Thursday, the largest outflow since the start of the Iran conflict. A French container ship also made the first explicit Western crossing since February.
  • Cetrini's on-ground analysis suggests Iran wants to keep the Strait open to project control and act as a responsible actor, not to facilitate a petroyuan shift. Payments involve diplomatic back-channels and quid pro quo, not a dominant yuan system.
  • Countries like Japan and France are unfreezing Iranian assets to ensure oil flows, undermining the Western sanction regime and signaling the decline of the rule-based international order when physical needs conflict with political alignment.
  • A new Qatar Energy and Exxon joint venture in Texas will produce 18 million metric tons of LNG per year, offsetting Middle East supply disruptions and representing a strategic U.S. move to control critical energy inputs.
  • Alberta separatists have gathered signatures to launch a referendum on secession from Canada in October, with potential links to the Trump administration as part of a broader strategy to secure resources and alliances.

Also from this episode:

AI & Tech (1)
  • Google released a paper claiming a reduction in the logical qubits needed to break ECDSA with Shor's algorithm, reigniting quantum FUD, though physical quantum computer progress lags far behind theoretical advancements.
Adoption (3)
  • Bitcoin developers are preparing for a post-ECDSA future methodically. Jonas Nick and Mikhail Kudinov released a hash-based signature paper in December, and Nick iterated with a more efficient 'Shrimps' proposal in late March.
  • A state-level adversary could theoretically try to disrupt Bitcoin by engineering panic to rush untested, novel cryptography into the protocol, highlighting the risk of action bias in responding to quantum threats.
  • Only a small subset of Bitcoin developers specialize in advanced cryptography, making broad calls for all developers to 'solve' quantum resistance unproductive. The protocol's ability to attract such specialized talent signals its high value.
EnergyMacroMarketsProtocol
Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

4/6/26: Iran Total Control On Hormuz, Energy Rationing, US Casualty Coverup, Iran Worried About US Nukes • Apr 6

  • Oil prices remain high despite rumors of a ceasefire, with Brent crude at $108 per barrel and WTI crude at $110 per barrel.
  • The US national average for gasoline is $4.11 per gallon, with California prices reaching $5.92. Diesel averages $5.61 per gallon, just 20 cents off its all-time high.
  • Iran has solidified control over the Strait of Hormuz, allowing only approved vessels like those from Iraq, France, Japan, and Oman to pass, reducing traffic to near record lows.
  • Global energy rationing is emerging, with Europe imposing jet fuel restrictions, Bangladesh seeing fuel-related robberies, and Southeast Asian governments mandating work-from-home to conserve fuel.
  • Jet fuel scarcity is an underdiscussed crisis, with BP Italia canceling flights and forward contracts priced at $195 per barrel, threatening to make air travel and cargo radically more expensive.
  • Parsi warns Iran's major escalatory card is attacking Gulf oil infrastructure, which could spike prices to $150-$200 per barrel and cause years-long supply shortages, unlike the current transit bottleneck.

Also from this episode:

War (6)
  • France voted against a UN Security Council resolution for a use-of-force mission to open the Strait of Hormuz, and a French vessel was subsequently allowed through.
  • Sagar argues the US Empire's core function of guaranteeing global trade is effectively over, as allies like France and Japan negotiate directly with Iran for Strait access.
  • Satellite firm Planet Labs has enacted a complete blackout of war imagery from the Iran region at the direct request of the US government, hindering independent damage assessment.
  • An Intercept report alleges a US casualty cover-up, with nearly 750 troops wounded or killed since October 2023 and CENTCOM providing outdated, low-ball figures to the press.
  • Trita Parsi states the Trump administration armed Kurdish militant groups during Iranian protests, which explains the unusual scale of violence from some protest elements at the time.
  • Parsi assesses that Trump's erratic threats, including an Easter message vowing 'hell,' signal desperation and have raised fears among former US officials that he may consider using nuclear weapons.
Elections (2)
  • Voters with a negative view of both parties now favor Democrats by 31 points, a significant reversal from the last election.
  • Trump voter confidence has dropped, with only 62% now 'very confident' in their vote, down from 74% in April 2025.
WarMacroEnergyDiplomacyMarkets
Peter St Onge Podcast
Peter St Onge Podcast

Ep 167 Weekly Roundup: 72 Scam Hospices in a Single Building • Apr 6

  • Peter St Onge reports that global oil shortages are severely impacting Europe and Asia, with gas prices significantly higher and energy rationing beginning. He contrasts this with the US, which has doubled domestic oil and natural gas production since the 1970s, making it the world's largest exporter and somewhat insulated from the crisis.
  • Peter St Onge attributes Europe's high energy dependence, including 80% petroleum and near-total natural gas imports, to its 'net-zero' climate policies that shuttered coal and nuclear plants. Asian nations also face severe energy vulnerability due to geographic limitations, with China covering only 25% of its oil use and other major economies importing nearly 100%.
  • Peter St Onge describes how rapid energy shortages in Asia triggered widespread government interventions, including export bans, price caps, rationing, driving restrictions, and A/C limits. He warns that potential mandatory factory idling could lay off tens of millions across the region.
  • Peter St Onge reports US home sales crashed 20% in a single month, the worst since 2008, with sales at 587,000 units - half of pandemic levels and 150,000 below 2019 figures. Despite homes for sale rising 4.9% and prices falling 7% year-on-year, the market remains stalled.
  • Peter St Onge reports Wall Street banks are lobbying Congress to ban interest on stablecoins, which they see as an existential threat to fractional reserve banking. Stablecoins, backed 1:1 with treasuries, offer over 4% interest with zero fees, significantly outperforming traditional banks that are 7-10% backed and pay minimal interest.
  • Peter St Onge warns of spreading cracks in the $1.8 trillion private credit industry, with major funds like Ares Management and Blue Owl limiting redemptions - an 'asset management equivalent of a bank run.' He attributes this to years of risky 'covenant light' loans and Fed rate hikes, impacting commercial real estate and leveraged buyouts, which could threaten pensions and insurance companies.

Also from this episode:

Business (1)
  • Peter St Onge attributes housing market stagnation to the Federal Reserve's nearly $7 trillion COVID-era monetary expansion, which artificially drove mortgage rates to 2.6%. Now, with rates doubled to 6.4%, half of COVID-era mortgage holders are effectively trapped, unable to sell without facing double payments on an identical new house.
Adoption (1)
  • Peter St Onge warns that Republicans in Congress are pushing legislation, disguised as a housing bill, that would greenlight a wholesale Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) - issued only to banks - while banning a retail CBDC where the Fed issues directly to the public. He notes this happens despite overwhelming public opposition, with 80-95% of Americans opposing CBDCs once understood.
EnergyBankingMacroStablecoins

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