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POLITICS

Pape says 21% of US adults now condone political assassination

Thursday, May 21, 2026 · from 4 podcasts
  • 14-21% of American adults now find political assassination acceptable, representing tens of millions of mainstream citizens.
  • Experts warn violent populism is driven by bipartisan fears over demographic change and wealth inequality.
  • Leadership condemnations can temporarily cool temperatures, but structural drivers create a 'most dangerous' midterm.

Millions of mainstream Americans have now crossed a lethal threshold. According to University of Chicago Professor Robert Pape, the leading expert on political violence, 14-21% of American adults find political assassination acceptable. On The Daily, Pape detailed that among those who endorse the “use of force” in politics, over half specifically mean assassination. This support has doubled since the Biden administration, translating to roughly 20 million people who found recent attacks on figures like Charlie Kirk acceptable.

“The sheer numbers are staggering. We’re not talking about a fringe of 10,000 or 100,000. We are talking about tens of millions of Americans on both the right and the left that are accepting of political violence.”

- Robert Pape, The Daily

The profile of the political extremist has transformed. Pape’s analysis of January 6th arrests revealed a new archetype: business owners, doctors, and CEOs. Only 10% were militia members. This shift reflects a wider era of “violent populism,” where educated, middle-class citizens fear being permanently locked out of power during a white-minority demographic transition and after decades of wealth concentrating in the top 1%. Pape calls these the “fire” that social media rhetoric merely fuels.

This existential dread is fracturing the political right. On The Tucker Carlson Show, pollster Rich Baris described a generational split breaking the MAGA coalition. He noted that Representative Thomas Massie was crushing his opponent with millennials 3-to-1 before $35 million in donor ads drove older voters to defeat him. The episode framed Trump’s pivot to covering up Epstein files and cheerleading foreign wars as a “cold-hearted globalist betrayal” that broke his bond with his base.

“If the GOP continues to steamroll these [younger] voters to please aging donors, it won't be able to win a general election in a decade.”

- Rich Baris, The Tucker Carlson Show

Immediate de-escalation depends on elite rhetoric. Pape’s research found that after President Biden condemned violence following the 2024 attempt on Trump, public support for force dropped by 20%. He argues the 75% of Americans who abhor violence must pressure leaders for joint, bipartisan condemnations to revoke the social license for assassination. Without it, the coming midterms will be the most dangerous in his lifetime.

The playbook for exploiting this volatile landscape is a century old. On Behind the Bastards, host Robert Evans detailed how oil billionaire H.L. Hunt pioneered the modern partisan media model in the 1950s, using rigged debates to delegitimize the mainstream press and selling health supplements to fund his propaganda. His template - pairing charismatic conservatives against unappealing liberal foils - created the visual language of political victory that endures today, proving the infrastructure for mass persuasion is well-established.

Source Intelligence

- Deep dive into what was said in the episodes

Tucker Responds to the Israel Lobby Defeating Thomas Massie and Killing MAGAMay 21

  • Carlson recalls Miriam Adelson bypassing security and entering Trump's inauguration church service ahead of everyone else. He saw this as an early sign of foreign influence priorities displacing domestic ones.
  • Carlson and Charlie Kirk believed Trump’s core promise was that the U.S. government should serve American citizens exclusively. They thought this would reshape the Republican Party toward figures like Thomas Massie.
  • Carlson cites an Israeli newspaper headline calling the Kentucky primary 'the most consequential Republican primary for Israel,' proving foreign interests directly shape U.S. elections.
  • AIPAC publicly celebrated defeating Massie, tweeting 'pro-Israel Americans are proud to help defeat anti-Israel candidates.' Carlson says this admission confirms a foreign lobby dictates U.S. politics.
  • Pollster Rich Baris says the Kentucky primary saw over $35 million spent, making it the most expensive House primary ever. Massie was clobbering his opponent with millennials 3-to-1 before the money influx.
  • Baris notes Republican boomers drove Massie’s defeat, while younger voters who supported Trump feel their presidency was hijacked by foreign policy. This generational split is fracturing the MAGA coalition.
  • Baris states the Epstein cover-up and the Iran war were a 'one-two combo' that broke MAGA's bond with Trump. Post-July 2025, Republican generic ballot polling flipped from a lead to an 11-point deficit.
Also from this episode: (6)

Politics (6)

  • Trump’s pivot to covering up the Epstein files and cheerleading a regime-change war in Iran represented a 180-degree shift from his America First campaign promises, which Carlson calls a 'cold-hearted globalist betrayal.'
  • Carlson argues Jeffrey Epstein's 2019 arrest and murder under Trump's Attorney General Barr, combined with unexplained financial windfalls like a $30 million Powerball win, symbolize a rigged, two-tier justice system.
  • Thomas Massie was the only Republican in Congress who never took money from the Israeli lobby. His principled stance was opposing all foreign aid, especially to Israel, due to the U.S. debt crisis.
  • Carlson says Trump’s Justice Department, led by Leo Terrell, is conducting a multi-city 'anti-antisemitism' tour, effectively criminalizing criticism of Israel as hate speech.
  • Baris argues the Israel-first donor class doesn’t care which party controls Congress; they only need a bipartisan majority to preserve the special relationship and foreign aid spigot.
  • Baris observes that voters never prioritized stopping Iran’s nuclear program. Foreign policy has ranked 7th in importance throughout Trump’s term, with over 60% feeling the administration is too focused abroad.

5/20/26: Kamala Official Reveals 2024 Loss, Elon's Ex On 2024 Election Space Lasers, Dem Caught Boosting RepublicanMay 20

  • Rob Flaherty says the unreleased DNC autopsy of the 2024 election was conducted poorly and lacked quality, undermining its credibility.
  • Flaherty argues Democrats needed an early economic populist primary challenger to Biden to repair their damaged brand, not a rushed contest 107 days from the election.
  • Flaherty says Kamala Harris was dragged down by association with Biden's unpopular administration, making it impossible to distance herself.
  • Flaherty notes the Harris campaign's brand was incoherent and voters couldn't tell what it was about, despite significant ad spending on economic policy.
  • Rob Flaherty says 80% of Americans use YouTube weekly, with most viewing on TV sets, making it a core future political battleground.
  • Flaherty argues the Harris campaign lost the race when it lost the attention war with Trump and considered a Joe Rogan interview as a necessary attention event.
  • Flaherty says the Trump campaign's 'them, not you' trans ad worked by being shocking, but its real power was the implied storyline that Harris cared about 'wacky stuff' instead of voters' economic concerns.
  • Rob Flaherty claims polling showed Gaza was not a top issue, but the conflict meaningfully reduced Democratic enthusiasm by creating a moral question they couldn't answer.
  • Flaherty predicts the 2028 Democratic nominee will support conditional aid to Israel, citing Rahm Emanuel's recent doubts about funding the Iron Dome as evidence of shifting politics.
  • Ashley Sinclair alleges Elon Musk told her in October 2024 he had 'ten thousand lasers in space' and was ready to unleash an 'anomaly in the matrix' in the election.
  • Wang says over 40,000 Hmong villagers and soldiers aged ten and up died fighting for the US in the Secret War in Laos, leading to her family's displacement and her political awakening.
Also from this episode: (3)

Politics (3)

  • Ryan Grim says Trump believed Musk had secret election technology, which influenced Trump inviting Musk into his administration as a 'co-president.'
  • My Wang says incumbent Democrat Doris Matsui is using a 'red box' on her website to direct super PACs to run ads boosting Republican Zachariah Wooden, aiming to knock Wang out of California's top-two primary.
  • My Wang, a Hmong refugee and Sacramento city councilwoman, runs on abolishing ICE, supporting a Gaza ceasefire, taxing billionaires, and an AI data center moratorium, while rejecting corporate PAC money.

A Trump Dissenter Fights for His Political LifeMay 19

  • A September 2025 survey revealed that 10% of American adults found the assassinations of Charlie Kirk and the attempted assassination of Nancy Pelosi acceptable, totaling 20 million people for each incident.
  • Robert Pape notes that similar eras of violent populism occurred in the 1920s with the rise of the Second Ku Klux Klan and the 1960s, marked by political assassinations and collective violence.
  • Pape distinguishes the current era of violent populism, stating it is the first time political violence is supported by millions on both the right and the left simultaneously, unlike past periods predominantly from one side.
  • A SIPOS study of threats to members of Congress from 2001-2024 found a fivefold increase in threats starting in 2017, affecting both Democratic and Republican targets, a trend sustained for approximately eight years.
  • Robert Pape identifies a major social change driving political violence as the U.S. transitioning from a white-majority to a white-minority democracy, a first in 250 years and a key factor fueling bipartisan tensions.
  • Robert Pape's surveys reveal that supporters of political violence are not marginalized individuals, but often educated, middle, and upper-middle-class people on both sides fearing political exclusion and loss of future power.
  • Pape describes current politics as "existential," driven by fear of political lockout and the 20-year demographic "tipping point," leading him to consider the upcoming midterm election the most dangerous in his lifetime.
  • Robert Pape emphasizes that political leaders' rhetoric significantly influences the escalation to violence, noting that authority figures like Donald Trump, Beto O'Rourke, and Gavin Newsom can activate predisposed individuals through their language.
  • Robert Pape's analysis of January 6th attackers revealed a new profile - including business owners, doctors, and lawyers, with only 10% being militia members - contrasting sharply with the previously typical unemployed, fringe militia member.
  • Robert Pape proposes long-term solutions: slowing demographic change through Obama-era immigration policies and reducing wealth concentration at the top 1%, which currently neither party addresses.
  • Pape suggests short-term action before midterms, advocating for political leaders like Hakeem Jeffries and Donald Trump to issue joint condemnations of political violence across all sides.
  • Robert Pape cites that following President Biden's speeches condemning political violence after Trump's 2024 assassination attempts, support for violence decreased by 20% in subsequent surveys.
  • Pape highlights that 75% of Americans abhor political violence and encourages this majority to actively pressure their representatives to jointly condemn violent acts, asserting their agency for a better future.
  • President Trump indicated he would likely reject Iran's latest peace proposal and suggested military strikes on Iran could resume, while a senior Iranian general anticipated renewed confrontation.
Also from this episode: (8)

Politics (8)

  • Robert Pape, a University of Chicago Professor and leading expert on political violence, argues that "violent populism" poses a greater risk to American democracy than terrorism or foreign adversaries.
  • Robert Pape explains that "violent populism" is characterized by tens of millions of Americans on both sides accepting political violence, which fuels individual acts and hinders FBI reporting.
  • Natalie Kitroeff and Robert Pape cite recent acts of political violence, including the assassination of a Minnesota Democratic leader and Charlie Kirk, an arson at Governor Shapiro's residence, and multiple attempts on President Trump.
  • Research from the University of Chicago Project on Security and Threats indicates that for most of the Biden administration, 10% of Americans supported political violence to restore Donald Trump to the presidency.
  • Robert Pape's focus groups found 55% of those endorsing "use of force" meant assassination, initially implying 5% of the body politic; this support has since doubled to 14-21%.
  • Pape also links the rise in political violence to a significant shift of wealth to the top 1% since the mid-1980s, which neither political party has addressed, contributing to bipartisan frustration.
  • Robert Pape views social media as an accelerant ("adding gasoline to a fire") for political violence, facilitating interactions like Donald Trump Jr.'s post mocking the Pelosi attack, which generates social approval for potential attackers.
  • President Trump announced a new U.S. effort to guide stranded ships through the Strait of Hormuz, presenting it as a direct challenge to Iran and warning of forceful responses to any interference.

Part Three: H.L. Hunt: The First Elon MuskMay 19

  • H.L. Hunt married his second wife, Frania, under a fake name, and later tried to persuade her to move to Utah to become Mormon to legalize their bigamous relationship. When this failed, he paid for her relocation to New York, established trusts for their children, and arranged for someone to pose as their father.
  • The backlash against McCarthy convinced H.L. Hunt of a "liberal media" bias, a concept he significantly popularized among conservatives. Hunt and his allies attacked journalists like Edward R. Murrow, calling him "woke" and a "communist infiltrator" in the 1950s for promoting an inclusive America and featuring integrated military platoons.
  • In 1960, H.L. Hunt published "Alpaca," a right-wing utopian novel proposing a wealth-based voting system where ballot quotas were primarily tied to taxes paid. His ideal society outlawed political discussion on radio, TV, or speeches to over 200 people, deeming them "inflammatory."
  • Believing letters to the editor were the most-read part of newspapers, H.L. Hunt wrote dozens daily, employing secretaries to mail them to hundreds of publications. Despite his vast wealth, he refused to donate to charities, stating disabled people should be allowed to die rather than burden society, according to an FBI memo.
Also from this episode: (9)

Politics (5)

  • H.L. Hunt's "Facts Forum" actively supported Joseph McCarthy, featuring his researcher (and future wife) Jean Kerr and former FBI agent Robert E. Lee, who compiled McCarthy's list of 205 alleged communists in the State Department. The forum was known within the FBI as a "retirement plan" for agents.
  • The 1954 Army-McCarthy hearings, broadcast extensively by ABC and Dumont, were a disaster for McCarthy. Robert Evans notes that media coverage, highlighting his "craziest" moments, became an early example of "soundbite journalism" that revealed his extremism and fueled public outrage.
  • Hunt's "Lifeline" series, launched in 1958, explicitly abandoned claims of non-partisanship to avoid trouble. It used Reverend Wayne Poucher, a former Strom Thurmond campaign manager, to frame political issues as struggles between "the mistaken" and "the constructive," ending broadcasts with "don't forget to pray" to claim religious tax exemptions.
  • The Nation reported in 1964 that H.L. Hunt was likely the richest man in America and the country's most powerful propagandist for the extreme right. His "Lifeline" program reached an estimated 5 million listeners daily across 45 states via 331 stations, including 25% of clear channel outlets.
  • H.L. Hunt's primary political motivation was to protect the oil depletion allowance, a tax loophole for oil producers. He printed 200,000 copies of an anti-Catholic sermon, distributed at the 1960 DNC, to oppose John F. Kennedy's presidential campaign, warning a Catholic president would end religious liberty.

Media (1)

  • After shutting down Facts Forum in 1956, Hunt launched "Answers for American," a seemingly balanced panel show. Robert Evans notes the format subtly favored conservatives by presenting charismatic debaters like William F. Buckley against less engaging liberal figures, a model later emulated by Fox News's "Hannity and Colmes."

History (3)

  • In 1959, H.L. Hunt started a health food and supplement business, exclusively advertising his "Gastro Magic" anti-gas pills on his own media programs like "Lifeline." He would introduce himself as "the world's richest man" before promoting his products to people expecting donations, and covered his car in bumper stickers for them.
  • After John F. Kennedy's assassination in Dallas in November 1963, H.L. Hunt was questioned by the FBI due to his previous anti-Kennedy rhetoric. The ensuing controversy and his association with figures like Barry Goldwater diminished his political influence, with even a rumor of ties to Hunt becoming "damning for a candidate," according to Heather Hindershot.
  • H.L. Hunt's son, Lamar Hunt, founded the American Football League (AFL). His sons Herbert and Bunker Hunt attempted to corner the world's silver market and were involved in a wiretapping caper related to their father's will. Bunker Hunt, a John Birch Society donor and oil magnate, reportedly inspired the character J.R. Ewing in the show "Dallas."